Monday, July 7, 2014

shall we play a game 2


To ask that we play Devil’s Advocate insofar as Gore Warming, I’m hoping you don’t dismiss the game because you think it is an impossible possibility. Rather, I want you to think what could happen, not for you to think about what you think WILL happen or even more importantly what you want to happen. Famously ( or, infamously by their point of view ), the Japanese wargamed Pacific naval encounters with us with a preconceived outcome and ignored the reality that was to transpire ( this is of course exactly how war games were played out when I was in the military and I took it personally that incompetent asswhores in the military mandarin system went about promoting themselves by training to get me killed ). To prepare to survive only the collapse scenarios you are comfortable with is a very easy way to get yourself killed rather quickly. No ones wishes to see an Extinction Level Event be our civilization collapse. But it isn’t exactly rocket science to think global heating and drought wiping out most crops is not impossible. If not from manmade SUV exhaust, then perhaps from abnormal sun activity. I mean, we’ve already seen a precursor. I don’t think it unreasonable to wargame a No Blade Of Grass scenario.


When a resource becomes scarce, the world doesn’t sit still for it. Let’s say the Saudi main oil field is glassed over by Pakistan nukes ( or Iran, if that makes you feel better- just beware that our jingoistic proclamations do not appease the locals we are subverting to our imperial ends ) and ten percent of the world’s oil is gone overnight. You don’t think this will effect North Dakota oil, or Louisiana’s? You think that the price will increase but all else will stay the same, from naval dominance to petrodollar dominance to suburban commuting to food availability? Our nation is still number three in oil production and as soon as our economic power is threatened and hence our military crashes and burns, we could very well see a military campaign against our oil industry. It is the same with food. You don’t see a food failure outside Africa NOT domino effect everything everywhere. A food shortage sees military conflict- India and Pakistan want control of the same crop water and they have nukes. A food crisis sees immigration patterns decimating entire populations. In our back yard, if there is a true food shortage, the borders are overrun and your small border town of three thousand people sees a neighboring refugee camp of thirty thousand. You are overrun by crime if not riots. If you try to feed them, assuming there is enough food, your local governments go broke ( or go broke policing the immigrants ). How easy would it be to see armed conflict starting?


And you aren’t safe on a farm. Only during peace time are farms safe. In war, or immigrant invasion ( such as Yankees fleeing South under a huge grid failure in winter ), you can’t stem the tide of human locusts. You don’t have enough bullets. Your only hope is using the last of the gas ( being the ethanol crap goes bad in six months-you might have Sta-Bolized your gas but nobody else did ) for the females to farm mechanically as every able bodied male goes to fight back the tide- possibly now mixing it up with both State forces, Fed forces and foreign drug cartel forces as well as the immigrants. In this way, the whole central state collapses as each locale tries to survive. In a true food crisis, with each area being overrun, it will degenerate into a Hobbsian brutish battle for survival. I don’t think many places have enough ammunition, or stored food, to do this. Entire sections of the country degenerate into wastelands- not helped by our current transportation-centric logistics reality. Why do you think zombies are so popular? The genre sidesteps all these grim realities.


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  1. Being as our bodies are genectically programmed to expire around 50 and i've already used more resources than i've should've,who gives a damn,bring it on so i can go out in a blaze of glory.
    Too many people act and plan as if there going to live forever,i hate to break it to them, aint gonna happen.

  2. I live on a small farm and I will surely feed any of the roving starving masses that would show up. They will each get 'fed' a piece of my .308 lead until I run out. After that I will have to ration them down to a .22 size piece. I can 'feed' many thousands that size ration.

  3. USA! USA! USA!

    Your soooo funny. Dankin. You need to get out of you're hole more often.

    America is the world's numero uno in oil production.

    America is the world's bread basket.

    You need to vacuum that rug on you're noggin.

    Global warming??? Do still believe in the tooth fairy? Easter bunny? Santa?

  4. Most people have absolutely no idea how connected everything is or how quickly it can all unravel.

    My homestead is pretty well set up in a rural area, but there are some disasters that all you can do is hope to get out of the way.

  5. Good post, James. You could do a whole series on different war gaming scenarios.

    Personally with a 'refugee problem and you're on a farm' scenario, I think Roman's approach in the book, A Distant Eden, is best.

    At the first hint of trouble, you cache all your supplies, make your house look like it's been gone through already and then hide in the woods until the SEVERAL waves of refugees have gone through. Then you tribe up to defend what you have from the survivors.

    This is why you MUST have stored food. And in concentrated calories like wheat. Freeze dried yak testicles are wonderful but they are bulky and you won't have enough space to carry/hide/store a SEVERAL years supply.

    You won't be able to successfully garden for a year or two. And even then, you will probably lose a harvest or two or three from disease, raiders, and weather.

    Idaho Homesteader

    1. You got it right Idaho Homesteader - Cache all supplies ASAP (at least to put you on the low end of visible supplies in your area. do leave SOMETHING for them to steal so they don't keep looking though).
      No need to wait though, cache early and cache often.
      Board up windows and use lit torches to scorch the exterior of your home so that it looks like it burned up.
      Spread trash and waste near the main entrance to the home (look looted, poor, and stupid).
      Have a little theatrical skill and make yourself look hungry and diseased.
      Find a way to make the area smell bad- repulsive smells will repel and set the curious on their way promptly.
      If you garden have the most visible plants look sickly, even if the garden is well hidden.
      I expect to need 7 years of supplies to wait out a die off. I have only just begun caching and need a lot more supplies to reach this point.

  6. Horribly busy and hot day- I'm going home. I'll try to respond to the just posted comments tomorrow. Thanks, and be perfect minions.