To ask that we play Devil’s Advocate insofar as Gore Warming, I’m hoping you don’t dismiss the game because you think it is an impossible possibility. Rather, I want you to think what could happen, not for you to think about what you think WILL happen or even more importantly what you want to happen. Famously ( or, infamously by their point of view ), the Japanese wargamed Pacific naval encounters with us with a preconceived outcome and ignored the reality that was to transpire ( this is of course exactly how war games were played out when I was in the military and I took it personally that incompetent asswhores in the military mandarin system went about promoting themselves by training to get me killed ). To prepare to survive only the collapse scenarios you are comfortable with is a very easy way to get yourself killed rather quickly. No ones wishes to see an Extinction Level Event be our civilization collapse. But it isn’t exactly rocket science to think global heating and drought wiping out most crops is not impossible. If not from manmade SUV exhaust, then perhaps from abnormal sun activity. I mean, we’ve already seen a precursor. I don’t think it unreasonable to wargame a No Blade Of Grass scenario.
When a resource becomes scarce, the world doesn’t sit still for it. Let’s say the Saudi main oil field is glassed over by Pakistan nukes ( or Iran, if that makes you feel better- just beware that our jingoistic proclamations do not appease the locals we are subverting to our imperial ends ) and ten percent of the world’s oil is gone overnight. You don’t think this will effect North Dakota oil, or Louisiana’s? You think that the price will increase but all else will stay the same, from naval dominance to petrodollar dominance to suburban commuting to food availability? Our nation is still number three in oil production and as soon as our economic power is threatened and hence our military crashes and burns, we could very well see a military campaign against our oil industry. It is the same with food. You don’t see a food failure outside Africa NOT domino effect everything everywhere. A food shortage sees military conflict- India and Pakistan want control of the same crop water and they have nukes. A food crisis sees immigration patterns decimating entire populations. In our back yard, if there is a true food shortage, the borders are overrun and your small border town of three thousand people sees a neighboring refugee camp of thirty thousand. You are overrun by crime if not riots. If you try to feed them, assuming there is enough food, your local governments go broke ( or go broke policing the immigrants ). How easy would it be to see armed conflict starting?
And you aren’t safe on a farm. Only during peace time are farms safe. In war, or immigrant invasion ( such as Yankees fleeing South under a huge grid failure in winter ), you can’t stem the tide of human locusts. You don’t have enough bullets. Your only hope is using the last of the gas ( being the ethanol crap goes bad in six months-you might have Sta-Bolized your gas but nobody else did ) for the females to farm mechanically as every able bodied male goes to fight back the tide- possibly now mixing it up with both State forces, Fed forces and foreign drug cartel forces as well as the immigrants. In this way, the whole central state collapses as each locale tries to survive. In a true food crisis, with each area being overrun, it will degenerate into a Hobbsian brutish battle for survival. I don’t think many places have enough ammunition, or stored food, to do this. Entire sections of the country degenerate into wastelands- not helped by our current transportation-centric logistics reality. Why do you think zombies are so popular? The genre sidesteps all these grim realities.
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