Monday, May 19, 2014

peak oil rethunk


Every effort by every swinging dingus loyal minion out there for lo these many years to dissuade me from my firm conviction that Peak Oil was gospel utterly failed. I countered with cries of “false hope”, “wishful thinking” or when I wished to firmly put them in their place and insult them, “optimist”. Only now do I confess from turning from energy atheist to energy agnostic. While I don’t rejoice over our now rosy energy future, I am willing to admit that there is now a glimmer, a very small glimmer, that the very worst case scenario MIGHT not come true. But don’t start throwing confetti or turning to the nearest stranger and start swapping spit. The worst case scenario was a near extinction level event. Now, all those sons-a-bitches that might have died off and left you in peace are probably now going to still be around to rob, rape and eat you and not necessarily in that order. You really haven’t gained all that much, survival-wise. Except that my previous best case scenario, that China would still be producing ammo and arm you to fight its proxy wars against Washington DC, is now far more likely ( and no, you peckerwoods, this does not validate your semi-auto wishes ).


I have very few authors of non-fiction I grant a 90%+ rating. They have to be smart, talented and intellectually honest. A near impossible combo to find. F. William Engdahl is one such. His “A Century Of War” is the best geopolitical treatise I’ve ever read, and I’ve studied that book multiple times. His other books, from finance to our food supply, are equally good. He makes compelling arguments and it is hard to fault his logic. When I found his latest book, “Myth, Lies and Oil Wars”, I was aghast to say the least. My buddy, my pal, was firmly in the abiotic oil camp. He refused to believe in Peak Oil. To read this book was to challenge my own orthodoxy. It would step far outside my comfort zone. It would invalidate hundreds if not thousands of hours of my research. Yet, I gladly shelled out $18 for this small 200 page book. That is how much credit I place in this man. Take your best shot! Wow me like you did with the Anglo-American oil oligarchy, the central banker manipulations and the purveyors of generically modified foods with global control. To say the least, this was a far better researched and argued stance than I’ve ever heard from the Peak Oil crowd, and that includes geologists.


Before I go any further, you might recall the muted voice in the wilderness of a minion. Even if abiotic oil is true, the replenishment rates are NOT close to our extraction rates. This is true, and that is the one game changer this book barely mentions. It is the abiotic oil theories Achilles heel. From an economic standpoint, running low on abiotic oil is the same as running out of biologic oil. But from a survivalist standpoint, it is the difference between species extinction and a Darwin nation clash that still sees a victorious and prosperous emergent. Which, I might point out, still sees the residents of the US in a brutal, vicious social collapse and die-down. Continued in my next post.


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  1. Is the SKS less accurate than other rifles?
    With a peep instead of open notch rear sight
    you may shoot smaller groups.
    Before you rush out and spend cubic money
    on sights, try this idea. It's dirty but it's cheap.
    Drill a 3/16" hole in a suitable handsome chunk
    of black plastic that will excite envy in all who
    see your great idea.
    Secure that rear sight to the receiver with shoe goo.
    Don't worry about hitting the point of aim.
    Check the center-to-center size of the group.
    If you are happy with the group size, adjust
    front sight to strike point of aim.
    PS To find c-to-c measure from right
    side of hole to right side of other hole.

  2. re peep sight
    Look through the peep, otherwise ignore
    the peep, and focus your eye on the
    front sight blade on the (blurry) target.
    ( I know that some gun store heroes tell you
    to consciously place the front sight in
    the middle of the peep while you also
    focus on the target. It can't be done.)

  3. You can't fool your loyal minions, Lord Bison. You are throwing out the suggestion that peak oil isn't real just to flush out the unbelievers so you can smite them.

    Loyal minions know that your long expounded upon views on peak oil are true and will not be fooled.

    Because, as you have always taught us, it is not really about peak oil but peak CHEAP oil and the growth paradigm that this world is trying to sustain which is the real problem. And as you have also said, not just peak oil but peak everything.

    If oil is so plentiful, available and renewable, why are we spending billions on wars to bring oil producing countries under our sphere of influence? Why are we drilling in inhospitable climates and deep in the ocean where cost are exorbitant? Why are the-powers-that-be promoting global warming, global cooling, green power in order to influence the unwashed masses to use less energy?

    Nice try but this loyal minion will not be fooled by your loyalty test.

    Idaho Homesteader

    1. "Loyalty Test" I love it! I'm not trying to say oil is now replentishable on a time scale useful to us. Merely that IF we have been lied to, we must rethink the part where the banks need cheap and abundent. They just might need High Profit. End Of Petro-$ is still game over for the US. Hopefully this four part series will clarify my thinking on this sea change. If not, I'll try to clarify for minions AND myself what this could all mean.


    has this to say about the coming collapse -

    On the subject of the U.S. collapsing, Armstrong says, “The core economy never collapses first. It’s the last thing to go. If the United States would collapse first, then all the other economies would have to collapse. It doesn’t work that way. It comes from the outside in. If the United States were to collapse first, the entire world would have to collapse.”

    it just sounds RIGHT to me, it even makes sense. Those in the center of power want the center to continue like it has been for as long as it can. They will sacrifice the colonies- more distant, least important ones first, then more and more will fall as the empire falls. Since our empire is an economic cultural one we will see it first in places like Syria, Ukraine, Egypt, Pakistan, etc. Most of these places are already in a state of near perpetual revolt and getting worse. Look at what happened to Kosovo to start happening in nearly every 3rd world country, and then 2nd and 1st world countries.

    Peak (cheap) Oil means Peak (cheap) Food and food directly correlates to riots, and revolutions. Sure their might be a lot of oil left to tap in the US especially in the 'EPA protected' areas but it isn't enough or cheap enough to last. I expect we will see Mexico completely fall immediately prior to the US breakup and collapse - Mexico is clearly on that path now, it is only a matter of timing (drought, lack of the new house building forcing back the Mexican laborers from California fields - arrive back in Mexico with no money needing cheap food, and having an attitude of deserving human rights like the US citizens have- lots of powder for an explosive there.).


  5. Jim i think i was the minion in the wilderness.I look at it all like this peak oil is a reality.abiotic oil may replenish at 1890 useage.What was our population then? what was our industrial output?The list is endless.Abiotic or dino guts imagine life with only 126,000 bpd (i looked up 1890 production).That is 1/50th of todays domestic production.And 1/200th of our use or 0.05% .Looks like you got an artical to think on and run with

    1. Well, coal and wood use then would queer the stats, but I get where you are coming from. Clearly, I've opened a bit of a can of worms for myself. I'd think a book would be appropo, but I can't imagine the research involved.

    2. COAL!? REALLY!? What about eroi? Do you see a bright shiny coppery future for steam engine use?

    3. What I meant was that coal was in widespread use at the time, so oil production was artificially low. Using those stats was queered by the infrastructure devoted to other fuels.