Tuesday, May 20, 2014

peak oil rethunk 4

PEAK OIL RETHUNK 4

If Engdahl is correct and Hubbert is full of crap, does that mean we can all relax and sell our freeze dried foods and move back to the cities? I scoff at your na├»ve optimism. Oil is being used up, far quicker than any replenishment rate, and so eventually far less is going to be available than now. However, since the Russians seem be to be able to look in un-approved areas for oil ( they also directed Vietnam to one such “impossible as source rock” area which is still producing at about the former Libyan level ) it seems unlikely their peak will conform to the Hubbert bell curve. It means that not all oil areas are going to fail as quickly as presupposed. For the human race, it means that the coming soil, water and ore scarcities brought on by overpopulation will be catastrophic but not necessarily End Game. It means far longer empire clashes. It gives more power to the Russian empire, more to China only as long as they ally with them, and the same bad news for the US empire. We are still broke, still overextended and still incompetent due to our own rot and ill-investments ( when it is all about profiting the bankers, strategic considerations are ignored ). And yet, we still have plenty of oil. And if abiotic oil theory is correct, it means all those stripper wells left capped since the 70’s might have filled partially up again ( unless they are in areas where Frack oil is being used ).

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Now, any guesses what happens to resource rich, politically unstable overpopulated countries? If you guessed, colonialism, you win a prize. If, or I should say when, the petro-dollar is ended, the US economy reacts as though an EMP just took out our grid. Without an incentive to accept dollars, nobody will sell us crap. And we need the worlds crap, producing notably very little. Even our food production is not necessarily a bargaining chip. Only a competent incorrupt government could ration oil effectively to the agriculture sector after petroleum imports stop, leaving us to cope with six million barrels a day down from nearly twenty. I seriously doubt that is going to happen. And remember all that artificial fertilizer that we now import? About half of what we need. Remember the drought and the empty southern aquifer? We most likely won’t be able to feed ourselves ( or, if we produce enough, at least get it to the population centers ) let alone use food as a foreign exchange ( there will be sales, and money made, but just to profit the elite. Nothing to keep our citizens alive ).

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The country will balkanize, civil wars being between local competing factions rather than always between the feds and the region ( some areas the feds gladly cede as the resources there don’t pay for a military contest ). Oil areas will be fought over by local parties, proxies of foreign powers as is the case now all over the world ( the instigator merely becoming the victim ). As oil becomes more dear, it will be fought after, and it is silly to think the US will always triumph. Get ready to be just like a persecuted African minority tribe, fleeing war areas, being starved. If you know its coming you can be one of the armed groups rather than one of the massacred villagers.

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6 comments:

  1. hmmm. I don't know. It seems to me according to Jeffers at TAEC that we are losing almost a million barrels per day each year additionally for the past eight years. According to EIA we will be done importing in five years, if all stays the same, I say less. Fracking is 40% to 60 % depletion rate the first year, and is not keeping up with import draw down. Mexico is dripping oil. Ohio fracking, is going bust, a least no more big talking going on, I got family there keeping me updated. As for ocean life as the primary origins of oil, I say that is a lot better explanation then Russian theorist. What 70% of the Earth is covered in it, and full of life, back then a least. Na, I give us 5 years tops to get our shit squared away as a nation, wont happen though. Stay the course Great One! peace

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    1. I agree with the draw down. Imports ceasing around the same time as a fracking bust- most likely next year or 2017 latest. My only point in questioning the orthidoxy is to be able to fine tune the trend. The trend is still on track. More importantly than the origin question is the PTB looking at this as a profit situation rather than a depletion one. It better explains the last thirty years or so. If this is the case, they have made things WORSE for this country. Never fear the big picture is still bleak for us peons.

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    2. Agree, oh, just off the presses Montery shale play in Cali is downgraded by EIA by 96%. How can they F that up that bad . Lol! Further reading on shale over estimates by EIA can be found at Post Carbon Institute posted April 21, 2014. peace

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    3. Where's my 100 years of energy independence, bitchez?

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  2. It's wise to not get too caught up in the biggest of big pictures. As you indicated, resource depletion/scarcity has the same impact on me whether it is truly happening or manufactured to increase somebody's profits. The bottom line is the economy ain't growing, it's shrinking, the population is increasing, and the powers that be keep getting greedier. Easy math to do, and the U.S. is set up to take the biggest hit in terms of rapid drop in standard of living. Maybe it's just a nasty, brutal, economic contraction. Maybe it looks a bit more like Road Warrior. Does not change much what I can do for myself and my family. Build resilience in terms of the basic needs. I've posted before that I think real security would be a 10-year food stockpile, judging by historical implosions. Even the standard, well-prepped 1-3 year supply comes up quite a bit short. Space is a problem moreso than cost if you mostly stock cheap grains per JMD.

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    1. I think you are one who got me thinking the five year food supply is the new minimum.

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