peak oil rethunk 4

PEAK OIL RETHUNK 4

If Engdahl is correct and Hubbert is full of crap, does that mean we can all relax and sell our freeze dried foods and move back to the cities? I scoff at your naïve optimism. Oil is being used up, far quicker than any replenishment rate, and so eventually far less is going to be available than now. However, since the Russians seem be to be able to look in un-approved areas for oil ( they also directed Vietnam to one such “impossible as source rock” area which is still producing at about the former Libyan level ) it seems unlikely their peak will conform to the Hubbert bell curve. It means that not all oil areas are going to fail as quickly as presupposed. For the human race, it means that the coming soil, water and ore scarcities brought on by overpopulation will be catastrophic but not necessarily End Game. It means far longer empire clashes. It gives more power to the Russian empire, more to China only as long as they ally with them, and the same bad news for the US empire. We are still broke, still overextended and still incompetent due to our own rot and ill-investments ( when it is all about profiting the bankers, strategic considerations are ignored ). And yet, we still have plenty of oil. And if abiotic oil theory is correct, it means all those stripper wells left capped since the 70’s might have filled partially up again ( unless they are in areas where Frack oil is being used ).

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Now, any guesses what happens to resource rich, politically unstable overpopulated countries? If you guessed, colonialism, you win a prize. If, or I should say when, the petro-dollar is ended, the US economy reacts as though an EMP just took out our grid. Without an incentive to accept dollars, nobody will sell us crap. And we need the worlds crap, producing notably very little. Even our food production is not necessarily a bargaining chip. Only a competent incorrupt government could ration oil effectively to the agriculture sector after petroleum imports stop, leaving us to cope with six million barrels a day down from nearly twenty. I seriously doubt that is going to happen. And remember all that artificial fertilizer that we now import? About half of what we need. Remember the drought and the empty southern aquifer? We most likely won’t be able to feed ourselves ( or, if we produce enough, at least get it to the population centers ) let alone use food as a foreign exchange ( there will be sales, and money made, but just to profit the elite. Nothing to keep our citizens alive ).

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The country will balkanize, civil wars being between local competing factions rather than always between the feds and the region ( some areas the feds gladly cede as the resources there don’t pay for a military contest ). Oil areas will be fought over by local parties, proxies of foreign powers as is the case now all over the world ( the instigator merely becoming the victim ). As oil becomes more dear, it will be fought after, and it is silly to think the US will always triumph. Get ready to be just like a persecuted African minority tribe, fleeing war areas, being starved. If you know its coming you can be one of the armed groups rather than one of the massacred villagers.

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