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Friday, December 2, 2016

finances for collapse book 2


FINANCES FOR COLLAPSE BOOK 2

FORGET LUXURY

Nobody wants to be a bum with mildewing skin ( one crazy bastard when I lived in Florida had multiple layers of duct tape on his head, as well as tin foil.  I’m assuming to reflect alien thought control rays, or, if he was a prophet far more advanced than us mere mortals,  to keep the NSA from doing the same.  When they had him in the hospital his scalp came off from the lack of air on his head-and I’m not making that one up ) or a dirty greasy hippy.  We are a civilized society with running water and air conditioning.  Nobody needs to live like a savage.  And yet, nobody wants to live in a style below that of the most opulent empire of ages past.  Everyone thinks that flowery rose water squirts out of their ass, that their Special Snowflake Status entitles them to lounge on a couch being fed grapes by one slave as another cools the air with palm fronds.  If you call Oil Age machines run by millions of years of compressed sunshine “Energy Slaves”, as have authors far more talented than I, and think of how we live off of them, it is actually quite embarrassing.

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We have slaves busy running hither and yon stocking the fireplace or placing blocs of ice in front of fans so that we may never need to live in anything other than a thin toga.  Multiple slaves live in our kitchens so that on a whim we may awaken at midnight and consume delicacies from nations far away.  Slaves brave the storm tossed seas to bring us tropical fruit in the winter.  Slaves are always ready with our chariot-as climate controlled as our homes-to take us to anywhere we desire.  Usually to places serving even more exotic fare so that we may never feel the pangs of hunger or desire for any diet variety ( as long as it is corn derived, of course-we are as dependent on corn for our empire to survive as the Mayans were, and with as much risk of climate disruptions ).  We need to pass the time so we go to “work” which usually just means supervising more slaves.  Sometimes we don’t do much more than chat with other slave owners ( well, few of us actually own the slaves.  We are more like Straw Bosses.  But we don’t realize that ) about what we saw at the theatre last night ( entertainment provided by slave labor with the actors receiving extra slaves as payment ). 

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Looked at through that prism, not only are we as the most petulant child in the history of Ever, we are weak and vulnerable without our slaves.  Mentally and physically we are weak of will and body.  As survivalists, our mission should NOT be to desperately grasp at keeping our slaves for as long as possible, but to attempt to separate, at least to a small degree, the addiction we have to our slaves.  Almost nobody is going to live in an unheated cave to prepare for the Apocalypse ( I did, for a time, and am the better for it, but I also went back to civilization and central heat afterwards.  Plus, my “fire” was propane so that cooking and coffee kept my underground hovel warm enough winter-round that wool clothing made an actual heater unnecessary.  I cheated, in other words ), but you should attempt to slowly wean yourself away from total slave holding to always trying to eliminate more of them.  It is a matter of degree.  And that makes a lot of difference.

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Nobody can stockpile enough Oil Age luxury products to last the rest of their lives.  Instead of, say, stockpiling thousands of gallons of propane, use Oil Age construction material to build such an energy efficient dwelling ( it doesn’t need be expensive at all ) that you merely need small handfuls of wood to keep comfortable through the worst weather.  You haven’t eliminated Oil Age luxuries, but you have minimized what you require.  Another example is an off grid refrigerator.  Best to eliminate the need for that appliance, but if that isn’t feasible it is preferable to buy two solar panels and some marine batteries and convert a freezer into a fridge.  The cost is minimal and you eliminate needing a LOT of propane.  Everything is still Oil Age, just as if you had canned all your meat rather than even run a fridge, but it is LESS.

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Once you realize the need to stop wallowing in luxury and return-to a point-to a simpler life where manual labor isn’t a curse only visited upon illegal immigrants, you will also find that you need far less money.  You will view skills as more important than income.  Sometimes you just need to realize you need to live less like a pampered princess and more like a pioneer.  But every time you discover a way to substitute a luxury item, and you spend less money, you become more independent.  And isn’t that the whole point in being a survivalist, to decouple from the infrastructure that will kill us when it fails?  Being a Pampered Prepper is an oxymoron.  First, because you can NEVER have your cake and eat it too, no matter what anyone tells you.  And second, because money is as much a golden handcuff as petroleum is.  Using money ONCE, or using petroleum products ONCE, that is an investment.  Needing money every two weeks is a DEPENDENCY. 

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Plus, you can never be less financially dependent if you can’t forego some small levels of luxury.  Everyone needs money-our elites have constructed the operating system that way to in fact keep us dependent.  But there are levels of dependency.  Some far worse than others.  Being in debt to have a perfect climate in your home and being in debt to get to work in a perfect climate, that is just stupid.  You still need to work, everyone.  But the guy in debt to have a luxury filled life must work in a far less future security environment.  The guy OUT of debt has wiggle room as the system fails.  The guy in debt certainly does not.  Debt is important because it is the best tool our leaders have of ensuring your compliance and dependency.  And by foregoing a certain amount of luxuries, you can stay out of debt and be a little more free.

END

Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon ad graphics at the top of the page.  IF YOU DON’T SEE THE AD, DISABLE AD BLOCK ( go to the Ad Blocker while on my page and scroll down the menu to “disable this site” ). You can purchase anything, not just the linked item. Enter Amazon through my item link and then go to whatever other item you desire. As long as you don’t leave Amazon until after the order is placed, I get credit for your purchase.  For those that can’t get the ads because they are blocked by your software, just PayPal me occasionally or buy me something from my Amazon Wish List once a year.  Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for mere Book Money, so do your part.*** 
*Contact Information*  Links To Other Blogs *  Land In Elko*  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com           *wal-mart wheat
*Link To All My Published Books
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there

Thursday, December 1, 2016

darky be good


DARKY BE GOOD

Okay, I’m warning you right now that today is a Tirade Only article with little to no application to survivalism.  I feel I have deserved this as it has been some time since I’ve felt the overpowering need, plus I did deliver the mostly favorite and coveted Gun & Ammo article yesterday.  As I’ve said before, class warfare in this country pisses me off good and proper.  While supposedly we are an equal, democratic and equalitarian society, in practice money determines your class status.  Always has and always will until the day roving bands of zombies eat the rich for their desired marbled flesh.  I don’t hate the rich for having money-I could have pursued wealth but chose an artistic calling.  I don’t care all that much about money, period.  No, I hate the rich because they have the attitude that their fecal emissions lack an unpleasant olfactory sense.  Just because you have money you are better than me?  At least I earned mine morally and legally, bitch.  Not that I care what they think, either.  I simply hate them, enjoy hating them, and feel little need to justify my attitude.  Don’t get me wrong-if you have a nice rack, a solid G3 clone arsenal, a retreat in a desirable location and a lot of money you stole from your rich ex husband and want to be my Sugar Momma, I’ll forgive you.  But the rest of you rich humpers, screw you.

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Money as a social marker is class warfare, and the rich have few qualms about letting you know that they are enjoying the fight.  Which is of course stupid, because all they are doing is advertising their wealth.  Which might seem like a good idea now, flashing your peacock feathers to advertise for a newer Trophy Wife, or showing the rest of the flock of hens how special you are because you are a better paid whore, but in the very near future when the guillotines come out, being royalty is not who you want to be.  So, yeh, I guess the rich are stupider than they think.  Not that I’m in close contact with a whole lot of actual rich people.  They live in gated communities or exclusive sections of town.  But the Rich Clones, the Yuppie Scum, the bastards that like to pretend they are rich, those are the asswhores I have to interact with.  Oh, they are rich compared to me, but true rich buy investments.  Yuppie Scum just buy debt in an effort to appear rich.  And think they are smart for doing so.  They think that this is their ticket to being Rich, rather than just Well Salaried. 

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Okay, you get it, the Affluent Class are dumb asses.  But what I have in mind is talking of one of their little tricks they like to play.  Shopping on the holidays.  I’m not talking about the commercialization of Christmas, but rather the unnecessary shopping on the actually holiday itself.  Thank goodness I no longer work in retail, but I did for twenty years.  And without fail, everyone wants to be open on Thanksgiving or Christmas.  They pretend that the workers and their families matter to them, and then make sure that the workers aren’t going to be around their families on the holiday.  Wow, did you hurt yourself closing at 4pm on Thanksgiving?  Now that everyone has already cooked and eaten, now you are sending your people home to their families?  I mean, HELLO!  Anyone home up there?  If everyone is open on the holiday, then nobody makes much extra money from doing so.  You saw one grocery store or gas station open on the holiday, racking in beer and lotto money, so of course not having a brain in your skull you think you’ll open also.  Then everyone does.  Then it is just another regular profit day.  They did the same thing with Black Friday.  Once everyone is doing it, and for longer than a day, you don’t get any extra customers unless you literally give away items.  Which defeats the purpose of making money ( not to mention your insurance goes up due to liability due to deaths in those gladiator games ).

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But I don’t care about Black Friday.  I’m mostly speaking of the traditional family holiday.  You’ll always have little old blue hairs with no friends or family tottering in making pests of themselves if you open for the holiday.  They are sad and pathetic and refuse to die.  But at least you can feel sorry for them and bond with them a little, two lost souls desperately clutching to each other as a surrogate family.  With the Affluent Humpers, holiday shopping is a tribal marker.  They do it maliciously. 

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Oh, look at me, I’m too well off to shop in bulk, or in advance.  I can go out to eat every day.  Only poor people stock their larder with peasant food.  Now, look at me, I’m a prize winning mother who provides better for my better family.  Look how many dishes I burn.  Well, of COURSE I’m going to run out of a little bit of this or a little bit of that-I’m far too important to do any shopping!  Why, running Junior to soccer to beef up his Harvard application simply takes FAR too much time.  And since I’m a better mother than you, because I care enough to marry someone richer, well, you can work in the store and wait on me as I pick up last minute items.  Dinner for YOUR family?  Why, just buy a $60 pre-made dinner at the store.  That’s what I would do if I were you.  And don’t you DARE get lippy with me.  The lower classes should be thankful for their jobs.  Why, if I had to work I’d be grateful I got to work the holiday.  Think of it as job security.  Not only should you Darkies Be Good, you should be grateful to your betters!  How would you have a job if it wasn’t for us?  What do you mean, how can we buy the company products if the company doesn’t pay enough of a wage?  Why, marry someone richer, of course.  Or get another job.  That is what I’d do if I wasn’t so busy and wealthy and important!

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I defy you to tell me that isn’t exactly the attitude those bastards have.

END
 
Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon ad graphics at the top of the page.  IF YOU DON’T SEE THE AD, DISABLE AD BLOCK ( go to the Ad Blocker while on my page and scroll down the menu to “disable this site” ). You can purchase anything, not just the linked item. Enter Amazon through my item link and then go to whatever other item you desire. As long as you don’t leave Amazon until after the order is placed, I get credit for your purchase.  For those that can’t get the ads because they are blocked by your software, just PayPal me occasionally or buy me something from my Amazon Wish List once a year.  Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for mere Book Money, so do your part.*** 
*Contact Information*  Links To Other Blogs *  Land In Elko*  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com           *wal-mart wheat
*Link To All My Published Books
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there
 

 

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

length of empire


LENGTH OF EMPIRE

An easy quick read is “The Fate Of Empires And Search For Survival” by Sir John Glubb ( usually by being knighted, at least prior to the embarrassing Elton John, it was generally acknowledged that you weren’t a complete idiot ) which you can easily find in a PDF file by Google-ing the title and author, followed by “PDF”.  Sometimes this stuff is simple.  I didn’t read anything too new, as I had come across this material in a different form in the book “War And Peace And War” by another ( which is the only affordable book by the author as the others are, from what I understand, very heavy on the math.  W&P&W is the authors concession to the general reading public, and quite good-I’ve read it at least twice ).  If you want the condensed version, just download Fate Of Empires.  Very simply, all empires last about ten generations ( Rome is explained by dividing it into two empires, first Republican and then Imperial.  I‘m not sure if that is cheating or not ), and the general direction of their decline is pretty similar.  They all start out with an outburst of energy, the Have-Nots of a lesser group hungry for wealth and power and willing to take chances to get it.

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The next phase is conquest, consolidating the gains from the initial outburst.  Following this is Commerce, as trade always follows a monopoly on power.  Affluence comes next, which is the beginning of the end, as all the energy and motivation is swamped by decadence and luxury, laziness and lack of risk taking.  Simply, a nomad warrior sees the city riches, fights his way to them, assumes the lifestyle of the conquered and becomes what he fought against.  Don’t despair the lazy videogamer of today while celebrating the rugged youth who went off to fight The Good War.  The former CAN’T become the latter even if the desire was there.  Society no longer values and rewards the same behavior.  Note that this book was written as the American Empire was done with the Outburst mode-and look how we have followed the historical trajectory towards collapse.

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Another Fun Filled Fact was that you can go back a thousand years and see the same deviant, anti-social or lazy traits we have today.  1,000 AD Baghdad had the following.  Free health care.  Filthy pop culture songs.  A feminist movement.  Agitation for a reduced hour work week ( this is, granted, more of a European thing, unless you view ObammyCare as a stealth imposed reduced work week ).   Swarms of the poor moving to the urban areas.  And a widespread hubris of the wonderfulness and uniqueness and the never-ending-ness of their empire.   If Shrub hadn’t Shocked And Awed Iraq, would the average citizen ever even heard of Baghdad?  How did that empire work out for them?  Now, so far so good.  We know that when it comes to the Agricultural Age, empires all have followed a similar pattern ( all end up in widespread ecological damage, also, by the way ) and America is certainly no exception.  We just think we are because we are a bunch of dumb asses which has got to also be a shared trait as luxury and sloth don’t exactly motivate the masses to apply themselves to study-why, when they are just living off the wealth generation of the past?

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However, the next step in this logical thought process is NOT that we will collapse just as they did.  We most definitely will collapse-that is human nature as unsustainable growth is part of the process.  But collapse must follow the energy decline of the civilization.  Which hence far has been agriculture until the British ( and they didn’t even use oil until their 10th generation-although coal use was enough of a paradigm shift to make them unique in the generations prior.  A generation being about 25 years, by the way ).  The British would have seen a denuded and abandoned London at the end of their collapse, had it not been for the American Empire Of Oil.  England fed itself from its colonies, using coal fired sea transportation ( by and large as obviously they fed themselves by sail transport first, then in the end with oil, but we are speaking of cushioning the collapse, which coal certainly helped do ). 

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It was expedient for the US to bribe England to peacefully cede western civilization control.  Mostly by giving up strategic naval bases but also by allowing the island to become a bomber base ( Iceland was also used hence, and Greenland, but there wasn’t as nice of a request by us to them, nor the benefits ).  In effect, the rulers of England allowed their citizens to be painted with a Soviet nuclear target, in exchange for the rulers being excused from going down with the ship.  Rather than collapse ecologically, they merely had an economic one.  If the US had not had petroleum riches, the British Empire would have collapsed like all the rest of them-into an impoverished near wasteland ( like, for instance, Baghdad ).  Unfortunately for the US, not only is no one interested in peacefully allowing us to coexist with them in return for the ruling elite being handed a pension, no one has the resources to do so.  Energy decline being what it is, it is unlikely a world naval power can ever again police the oceans and global trade. 

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And you are of course aware that the American Empire is global.  Global Trade is really just American Trade.  We have done a pretty good job of sucking everyone else’s resources through a fire hose.  There isn’t really anyone that can build up another empire to replace ours ( not to mention that uncomfortable nuclear arsenal someone is going to last minute desperately use, to help poison great swaths of land covering resources ).  The Russians contracted in land, security obligations and population, and hence have a fighting chance of remaining a strong regional power-but not an empire per se.  The Chinese are a Potemkin Village empire.  A Kaboki Theatre Empire.  They are reliant on American naval power, and to a certain extent American Dollars, to feed themselves.  I’m certainly not saying “America is great and the world can’t survive without us”.  I’m saying that the world is declining with us, unable to break free as we control the last of the oil extraction.  It will be an American Empire collapse, with few nations left standing around us.

END 

Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon ad graphics at the top of the page.  IF YOU DON’T SEE THE AD, DISABLE AD BLOCK ( go to the Ad Blocker while on my page and scroll down the menu to “disable this site” ). You can purchase anything, not just the linked item. Enter Amazon through my item link and then go to whatever other item you desire. As long as you don’t leave Amazon until after the order is placed, I get credit for your purchase.  For those that can’t get the ads because they are blocked by your software, just PayPal me occasionally or buy me something from my Amazon Wish List once a year.  Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for mere Book Money, so do your part.*** 
*Contact Information*  Links To Other Blogs *  Land In Elko*  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com           *wal-mart wheat
*Link To All My Published Books
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there

 

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

steel cases


STEEL CASE

Can a “case” be made for steel cased ammunition ( sorry, I had an uncontrollable compulsion to Spun The Pun )?  I bring this up after a thoughtful and helpful minion e-mailed me with a link to Wolf brand steel cased 303 British ammo, 38 cents each ( a smidge over 40 cents each after shipping if you bought two cases ).  I had no idea they made 303 in steel case and had never thought of it as being an option.  My usual ammunition acquisition strategy had been ( this was years in the past-the last time in the last two years I bought rifle ammo was a one time surplus find from Cheaper Than Dirt, a company I’m no where near as fond of as in decades past ) to buy the Eastern European deluxe brand of factory loaded ammo for 75 cents each from Sportsman’s Guide, with free shipping after using a coupon.  They used a brass case superior to others, it was reported to me by another minion, and at the same cost.  Hey, I’d have no problem buying American AND paying a premium for it, if I was assured that I was getting a quality product and that my dollars were going to American workers rather than a CEO, but since that hasn’t been true for a very long time I have no issue buying foreign.  It puts my money in the same pockets, but at a lower cost to me. 

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I mean, buy Ford?  Or Chevy ( that was my previous choice prior to the Detroit Bail Out, but their quality went down hill quicker than Hilary’s brain function )?  Are you friggin insane?  You are buying crap plastic construction which surrounds an unnecessary profusion of Windows OS computer chips guaranteed to start failing within the first few thousand miles.  At a higher price.  Why wouldn’t you buy a Toyota or Honda?  Patriotism?  It’s patriotic to automate out Union jobs, screw over your customers and focus your efforts on the emerging Chinese market?  I don’t think so.  What you reap, bitches.  And thanks to our recent discussion on guns ( I am certainly NOT a guru.  My minions provide me with a lot of input.  I would be an insufferable uneducated bloviater without them.  I’m happy to be corrected and taken to task by them.  Yes Men may go elsewhere ) I’m quite convinced that most American gun manufactures are not too far removed from the same quality standards of Detroit ( which isn’t even all Detroit anymore but also Italian ).  I can’t say that the ammunition makers aren’t also infected with the disease.

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Anyway, back to steel case ammunition.  In the past I was hesitant to recommend it, especially as any disruption in overseas trade made it time sensitive ( I voiced my concerns PRIOR to Obammy’s stupidity with Russian imports which jacked up the Mosin-Nagant rifles from $90 to $300 and doubled their 762x54r ammunition costs ).  Now, I view prepping time as so short that right now is the time to buy ALL stockpile items, even domestic ones such as wheat, because the oncoming economic collapse will eliminate all employment and trade.  So, your ammunition purchases are close to a One Off buy.  That leaves cost as the deciding factor.  To reload or to buy disposable ammo?  I’ve always been solidly in the camp on reloading, but I’m not sure if I can still hold that view ( unlike all these other idiots that use ten year old information to influence their views- such as “rimfire is cheap!”- I’m quite open to discarding old information and embracing new ). 

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Now, assuming steel cased ammo works just fine in the Enfield ( I have no experience, and the only gun I’m aware that actually loathes steel is the AR family ), we are left with cost.  A reload cost for the 303 is about 33 cents.   As the Enfield is infamous for shortening the life of brass cases, I only assume five reloads.  And that is WITH neck-sizing only, and annealing the tip of the case AND using the same rifle.  I could be wrong, and I’m not enough of a regular shooter to reload ( even if I have the equipment for post-collapse ) to have concrete information.  I use it as a benchmark.  So, fifteen cents for the case.  Another 15 cents for powder and three for a primer.  Without lead cost, 33 cents.  38 cents gets you a bullet and eliminates the need to reload.  And factory reloads are better for long term storage and reliability ( although not for accuracy ). 

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Reloading for pistol ammunition makes a lot of sense, with the six times powder use and the lack of pressure making case life far more robust.  But for thirty caliber rifles?  In my case, with a non-Mauser action ( I’ve talked to reloaders with Mauser actions and they don’t seem to get all that much more case life, but I’m wondering if that was because they full cased it?  But even if you had half the brass cost, it is still about 23 cents verses 38.  If you are starting out and need five thousand rounds, that price difference is a huge deal.  For others just supplementing? ) and lack of lead I’m hard pressed to care about the nickel difference.  If it is even a difference at all.  I’m wondering if the price difference isn’t eaten up with safe storage of your reloading components, not to mention eliminating ( for the most part ) component failures.  As I read the minions e-mail and did the math, I couldn’t help but wonder, What Am I Missing?  What am I overlooking here?  This article is my shout out for input to my other minions, rather than a definitive information piece.  What are your thoughts on quality and price.  I’m NOT factoring in convenience.  That is an oxymoron for survivalists.  A little extra work never hurt anyone if it saved them money.  Let the flame wars begin!

END

Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon ad graphics at the top of the page.  IF YOU DON’T SEE THE AD, DISABLE AD BLOCK ( go to the Ad Blocker while on my page and scroll down the menu to “disable this site” ). You can purchase anything, not just the linked item. Enter Amazon through my item link and then go to whatever other item you desire. As long as you don’t leave Amazon until after the order is placed, I get credit for your purchase.  For those that can’t get the ads because they are blocked by your software, just PayPal me occasionally or buy me something from my Amazon Wish List once a year.  Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for mere Book Money, so do your part.*** 
*Contact Information*  Links To Other Blogs *  Land In Elko*  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com           *wal-mart wheat
*Link To All My Published Books
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there

Monday, November 28, 2016

peak peak, article 2 of 2 today


PEAK PEAK

I’ve discussed the concept of Peak Oil here many times.  Most of you Beck Buckaroos start snoozing after you proclaim Fracking Oil will last near forever.  I mention Peak Silver, Peak Gold, Peak Phosphorus, Peak Iron Ore, Peak Coal, Peak Energy BTU, Peak Every Friggin Thing and you all look at me like I’m the retarded one.  I can’t keep drumming the same song into your head if you are unwilling to listen, granted, but I can keep talking about Peak Something else in the vain hope that one, you’ll eventually start listening and if not than two, I’ll at least irritate the crap out of you.  On this blog, I’d wager most of you are willing to plead for Peak Peak, but I shan’t.  Oh no.  Today, Peak Grain.  In 1986 the globe saw Peak Grain.  That was the point when the most grain per capita was harvested.  It was only gone down from there during the last thirty years.  No amount of artificial fertilizer, insecticides, GMO’s or clearing rain forests has boosted the figures.  And before you even say anything, no, nothing is going to reverse that figure.  I’ll slaughter all your sacred cows such as vegetarianism, eliminating ethanol, postponing the Green Revolution or reduced population pressure.

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First, how about a few worrisome figures.  I won’t say “frightening figures” because I’m sure that none of you will be moved by this article.  I’m really writing it for the one percent of my readers who will listen and act.  I’ve called the US population of survivalists at about 30k.  There might be more “preppers” but I’m sure that thirty thousand, the rough readership of Rawles, is about the number that will ever think about going past the thirty day food store litmus test.  Of that, I have 600 readers.  2% of serious survivalists even consider reading of a Malthusian Collapse.  How many do you think actually live away from crowds and have five years of food stores?  1% of the 2%?  Well, probably more like 2-5%.  But still pretty pathetic when you start guessing how many breeding pairs you need to get the population through a bottleneck event.  Anyway, in the 1960’s when Ehrlich was worried about global famine, the grain yield was 327 kilograms per capita.  The Peak in 1986 was 370 kg.  Today ( well, a few years ago-you never get right up to the date with these figures.  I believe they are from 2007 ) it is 350, a 6% decline from peak.  We don’t have too far to go to get back to the figures that panicked the author of The Population Bomb.

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Now, let me just say that obviously I love the good reverend Malthus.  He was a historian and a mathematician, not a huckster or panic-monger.  He wanted to avoid more famines as had been the norm.  He was just Doing Da Math-something that all the dingus lickers out there claim that the Gore Warming scientists have done, yet they along with everyone else discount anything Malthus ever said.  Ehrlich himself was a scientist and by most accounts a very good one.  But when he updated Malthus to account for contemporary population growth fueled by Oil Agriculture, he was spat upon, vilified and roundly dismissed ( those that do obviously believe oil will last forever ).  Malthus was only proven wrong by the introduction of coal and petroleum, and carbon fuels are a ONE OFF energy bonanza.  Which is ending.  Which has been ending.  Do you think it is much of a coincidence that Peak Energy per capita was 1979 and Peak Grain was a mere seven years later?  The Green Revolution in Ag is mostly powered by petroleum inputs ( not just the obvious tractors and fertilizers, but irrigation.  40% of our food is from irrigated crops.  Now take into account silted up dams and depleted reservoirs ).

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Everyone turning to vegetarianism?  Allow me to guffaw uproariously.  The Have’s NEVER decrease their consumption when others are dying in a famine.  They keep eating their middle class or higher diet.  In the 1940’s in Bengal during a widespread famine, those with the means kept eating normally.  Americans happily throw another steak on the BBQ as they read about famine in Africa.  The poor in America might not remember what meat for breakfast or lunch is like, but their richer countrymen can afford $1k a month insurance with $10k deductibles to treat themselves as their health deteriorates from a diet far too rich in protein.  More Chinese than ever ratchet up their beer and pork consumption as the Arab Spring saw riots from hunger ( itself caused, mostly, by US ethanol laws ).

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And do you really think we will stop throwing a third of our corn crop in our gas tanks?  Obammy The Nobel Peace Prize Winner never considered it.  Bush might have started the Mexican slide into a Failed State by stopping cheap corn subsidies once their main oil field started losing 8% production a year ( and they cut back on their oil imports to us ), but those teary soft hearted liberals had no problem keeping the poor in the middle east from getting cheap corn from us.  The world turns 8% of available farmland into fuel.  It isn’t just us.  Remember about that shrinking wealth pie?  Everyone is going to screw anyone in a mad desperate last ditch effort at grabbing the disappearing wealth.  Hence the Food To Fuel.  Nobody cares if others starve, as long as the money is rolling in.  As with the utopian call towards vegetarianism, so to the dream of less driving.  As far as population?  The only thing that has happened is that the increase in population has slightly decreased.  It is still an increase, just not as big of one.  It is STILL a Mathusian equation of population always outpacing food.  That is like saying one person starving at your dinning room table is far better than two.

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Grain is not diet.  Granted.  But the trend towards more people and less food is irrefutable.  Word to wise.

END

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guest article, article 1 of 2 today

GUEST ARTICLE
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If you don’t know the “Limits To Growth” hypothesis you should perhaps first get acquainted to it, either through the Wikipedia article (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth ) or through this shorter article (http://www.commondreams.org/news/2012/04/06/limits-growth-1972-collapse-prediction-still-track ). We will use the graph of the latter in this discussion : http://www.commondreams.org/sites/default/files/imce-images/futurism-got-corn-graph.jpg

There are several things to note in this graph :

A : The mathematical model itself has been validated : the data accumulated between 1970 and 2000 closely matches the calculations.

B : According to this model we have about thirteen to thirteen years left before the “economic collapse” happens.

Dennis Meadows himself declared that his model was only valid until the plateau phase, because what happens after that would be impossible to predict or modelize. While that may be true, we’re also talking about somebody who released a massive bomb back in its day, which set a massive change in policy in motion and movies with Charlton Heston (imagine that !). So it is just as well highly probable that Dennis Meadows is being “very considerate” or “very cautious” or “very polite”, all of it translating into : he doesn’t tell us the whole truth.

The truth being that after the plateau phase the collapse is brutal. Some of you may have heard of “The Seneca Effect” (http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.fr/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html ) which is BTW somewhat validated by studies on the Mayan Classic Collapse (http://thesenecatrap.blogspot.fr/2015/01/senecas-pyramids-how-fast-did-mayan.html )

However, in the Meadows graph itself, we can see two such cliffs : observe the “Services per capita” curve and the “Food per capita curve”. Both drop sharply in a few year’s hence from now, whereas all other curves don’t show sharp turns.

These two indicators might very well be the only “advanced warning” signals we might get. This coincides eerily with Donald Trump being perfect to slash jobs, especially Mc Jobs, which are especially critical in the USA, all at the same time when automated replacements are being rolled out. (http://uk.businessinsider.com/momentum-machines-is-hiring-2016-6?r=US&IR=T )

The probable next French president announced this week that he intends not to renew 500,000 civil servant jobs in France (out of 5 million) that will disappear due to retirement. Also, now on a more personal level, people I know in the French health sector tell me that a lot of hospitals are going to be closed and also numbers of beds in the remaining units are going to be slashed, among other causes because of a shortage of medical personnel and doctors. As a midschool teacher myself, I can attest that there are not enough teachers as it is, with steadily decreasing quality as well, and that they are considering a stark reduction of capacities in this sector as well. As for the police, they’re chronically understaffed, overworked and never recruiting enough for replacement.

 I think we can consider that this indicates a sharp evolution in the amount of services per capita, at least in France. If we can establish that this is happening in other places in the developed world as well then we have basically another validation of Meadows’ model for the “Services per capita” curve, which is actually the only one we can really monitor by ourselves. Also take note that we should watch these evolutions primarily in developed countries, because this is where there is still something to monitor. Poor and emerging economies are chronically underperforming and underserviced anyway – that said, I think we can see India’s current monetary disaster as a massive decrease in services per capita there, since money is a service.

As for myself, if I witness a sharp drop in services per capita (as of today these are very short-term predictions but predictions nonetheless), I will consider that the “Economic Collapse” will be about ten years ahead.

Some people might argue that Meadows couldn’t take the technological evolutions into account, and thus the curves might behave differently. Well in the “Limits of Growth” it is primarily about resources, not Facebook, and the technologies around food didn’t evolve that much, nor will they in a foreseeable future. The automation of Mc Jobs simply means that “useless eaters” are now even more useless, actually accelerating discrepancies in food & resources allocation.

 END

Friday, November 25, 2016

how's that olduvai theory working out for you? 2 of 2


HOW’S THAT OLDUVAI THEORY WORKING OUT FOR YOU? Part 2

Perhaps I should have stated that the first step in our question ( is it probable that we only have two or three years left to prep before industrial civilization implodes from lack of energy? ) is asking yourself if you are even worried about Peak Oil.  Obviously, from the number of times I’ve harped on it, from the very beginning of my blog posting ten years ago, you know that it concerns me greatly.  But I don’t expect everyone to agree with me.  I know without a shadow of a doubt that I am correct, and have lived my life accordingly, but that is my personal hang-up.  But, do we really need Peak Oil to be very, very frightened?  Donald Trump winning the election only stopped imminent attack by the Russians.  It will do nothing to change our trajectory into oblivion, because all The Donald can do is rearrange the pieces of the shrinking pie and I‘ll give you one guess if its going to us or the 1% ( it’s going to be nice to just call The Prez, “The Donald”, rather than constantly using needed and mandatory derogatory nicknames for the last AssClown.  O’Bummer, the First Kenyan,  First Muslim, Barry The Golfer,  House Negro, White House Negro, Half-Breed, etc. ).

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Oh, and hint, 90% of all the countries assets are owned by one tenth of one percent of the population.  Anyway, even if I claim to be positive that our economic collapse is caused by the plunge in net energy available globally, the only reason that the underlying cause is important to me is because it proves the trend is impossible to reverse.  To you, just look around at the last nine years and tell me anything but doctored statistics are improving?  Since the banker bailout, the derivatives markets have increased insanely.  The behavior that caused the housing bubble to pop was doubled down on.  How can that possibly end well?  Already since 2008, many other economic players have started using alternatives to the PetroDollar and once our control of the oils payment method ends, so too does our ability to do anything-such as buy overseas oil or bail out the global banking system like last time.  Hell, just look at Detroit.  Did their bail-out do anything, other than see auto prices double as their quality plunged?  And that was orders of magnitude less convoluted or expensive than the banker bail-out.  Look how quickly our 100 Year Fracking Miracle Of Energy Independence sucked on one crack pipe of delusion too many and responded to less than $100 oil by imploding quite nicely.

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Adjusted for inflation ( 1970‘s $12 oil was about 1/4 of an ounce of gold ), $100 a barrel oil is NOT all that insane.  The fact we can’t run our economy on it should be telling you something.  All these obvious clues are saying, HELLO!!!!, how much longer can you possibly have a job to go to?  Knowing full well that it is silly to time the collapse, I still can’t imagine why that three year figure doesn’t set off your alarm.  When I read it, my reaction was to agree that it just sounded right.  And it isn’t because I’m running scared right now.  I’m in no way panicking with preps.  No reloading supplies because of the election, no extra food supplies ( until they mark down sugar for the holidays ).  No more odds and ends I never got around to getting ( the last one of those I procured was a tooth extractor.  A single size, rather than a kit, wasn’t a great deal at $16, but I couldn’t spring for near $40 for the latter.  It is another Better Than Nothing item ).  Actually, once I started saving more cash my anxiety level decreased substantially.  That chaps my ass, being a religious Assets Only kind of guy, and cash is supposed to be an accident waiting to happen, but all the chicken entrails pointed towards job loss first.  And, you need to sooth what frightens you, even if intellectually you know it is a bum deal.

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Actually, I’m amazed that with every month that goes by, we haven’t already seen more widespread collapse.  It doesn’t have to be Mad Max, just the end of jobs and your local government massively cutting services.  And then, things just staying the same.  Mad Max will follow, but I’m more concerned with all of our thin hold on our lifestyle.  One major country not delivering oil would see the above.  The oil doesn’t even need to be running out.  Just our geopolitical fortunes.  I think three years ahead with business as usual is asking a whole hell of a lot, be it from our fellow humans or the deity of our choice.  And what do you have to lose?  What possible harm can come of getting out of debt, moving out of the city, getting solar panels and better food stores ( in this case, “better” being defined as “more calories” ) and all the rest?  Inflation will make all that harder in the future anyway, and wage and hourly cuts won’t help in the slightest. 

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Returning to the original decline in energy, I most certainly can see a mere three year grace period to the end.  New figures are constantly coming out giving us a newer, better picture of the true energy situation, and it looks a heck of a lot worse than it did just a year or two ago.  We still have plenty of gross energy available, but it has decreased so substantially in net energy that it has crushed our economies and will soon usher in an era of contraction so severe and rapid that even triage will be impaired.  Remember, it’s a waterfall collapse, not a stair step one ( with humble apologies to the Druid Dude, I think your history is wrong-don’t feel bad, so was that of the commies ).  Good gravy, it isn’t like any of this is a surprise, but neither should it be all that much of a burden.  Buried wheat and junk rifles on junk land with a junk trailer is just a Rednecks Vacation Home.   If you were spending a hundred forty grand on a second home in the country, I could sympathize with your trepidation.  Going with worse case scenario, however, if done frugally, is just cheap insurance.

END

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*Contact Information*  Links To Other Blogs *  Land In Elko*  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com           *wal-mart wheat
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* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there