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Wednesday, June 20, 2018

living in a cave 1 of 2


LIVING IN A CAVE
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I’m at The Burning Platform today, simply amazed that my morning Internet reading has actually been very productive two whole days in a row ( it is rare to get one day that there is so much good read material it stretches out into three or four hours rather than half that ), and I’m reading something by Straight Line Logic ( I believe it was “declining and falling” ) with one reader posting that while the article was good, he wanted to know what he could do about the information besides just hiding out in a cave.

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I know where the poster was coming from.  You can forever read all these doom and gloom articles, either identifying the problem with no solution, or with one that is simply stupid ( if we all change our basic biology, we can save the world! ), and it gets frustrating.  And I’m not implying that people are lazy and should have figured out what to do on their own.  When you first encounter this kind of stuff, you really have zero idea how anyone can respond to it.  Look at the Cold War nuclear threat.  No one had really thought about how to react to the threat of near decimation, globally, and so in our confusion we blindly accepted what in hindsight seems silly.

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Despite it seemingly being a communist plot to get the Western powers to de-arm, the movie “Threads” is one of my favorites in dispelling some of these Feel Good Nonsense strategies.  Those government instructions on expedient fallout shelters were savaged rather well.  As were the underground bunkers.  Not that the depictions are necessarily completely correct-they just highlight how far too optimistic official coping strategies were.  That being the point.  When you cannot think about the unthinkable, you latch on to what seems at first to be a great coping strategy.

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Then, later, if you even take the time to think deeply about it, you realize what putrid swill you willingly quaffed.  The Cold War delivered our salvation in the form of too small underground shelters with inadequate rations ( not that you wanted much more in the way of sewage than what 500 calories a day in hard candy and Saltine crackers would deliver ) and far too optimistic recovery times ( seemingly calculated on affordable supplies on hand rather than the actual properties of radiation ).  The Gore Warming threat offered up mass pleading and prayer as a solution to industry pollutants ( but by gum, don’t you DARE think about giving up driving your SUV! ), as if we were still a bunch of dirty Hippies hoping to levitate the Pentagon through meditation.

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And the threat of civilization collapse?  It’s just Business As Usual because, well, by golly, in the past they took 300 years to happen.  We are all still good, dawg!  Plenty of time to profit off of warning about the Gore Warming, prescribing

permaculture and a solar panel with a CFL.  So, to demand any other solution besides living in a cave, you just want to hear the same historical balm to sooth your anxieties.  But, guess what?  Literally living in a cave is exactly your only solution.

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Yes, I understand this and don’t practice it.  I have the means to do so.  I own land far enough away to be safe, and I have the finances to rent a U-Haul to stock it, as well as rent power equipment to dig a new B-POD.  I could start today and be ready in a few months, if not sooner.  Fully aware of the danger of NOT doing so, I choose to have the first fulfilling relationship in my life, finally with a woman whose company I enjoy and who I can actually communicate with.  I choose a spouse over a safe harbor.  I just don’t have any illusions I’ve made the correct choice for survival.  I prep just in case I survive against all odds.

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Logically, how does being around any people you have not personally vetted, armed and provisioned for ( all the while having your benign version of a secret police in case of insurrection ) NOT dramatically decrease your life expectancy?  I understand most preppers subconsciously minimize the actual danger so as to cope with their poor decisions such as still living in the cities, but if you are actually honest with yourself, tabling all that BS you usually fine dine on, you know there is only one way to survive the Seneca Cliff die-off.  Hermitage ( I wonder if this will be my inspiration to re-try to write that book again?  I was actually sad when I had to stop writing it out of mental blockage-I think it is a necessary addition to strategy ).

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Living in a small town is a great economic collapse strategy, and a great Quality Of Life decision.  But it STILL blows as a die-off event plan.  It takes one bullet to kill you, and while four million bullets have a better chance of killing you, even if it is only four HUNDRED bullets your odds are still close to zero ( just not negative zero! ).  Until you get those odds down to one on one, and that only works since you have the home town advantage on any interlopers, you cannot hope to realistically survive.  The only other realistic alternative to hermitage is to bug out, and that is only viable if you have a butt load of supplies cached, AND can actually leave in time.

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Both of which are problematic.  Not impossible, but highly suspect viability wise.  We’ve talked of bug out time lines before.  If you are so weak and lazy you need all the luxuries a city home provides, there is NO friggin way you’ll be honest with yourself as to when to pull the cord on bugging out.  You’ll keep justifying putting that moment off.  I’m not judging-it is just human nature.  It doesn’t necessarily mean you have a character flaw.  We are all like that, fearing change.  It is an actual species survival mechanism ( not that it helps the individual survive ).  You must force yourself to change before it is needed.  As far as pre-supplied cache locations, and more, that will have to wait for tomorrow.

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*** Unless you are in extreme poverty, spend a buck a month here, by the above donation methods or buy a book. If you don't do Kindle, send me the money and I'll e-mail it to you in a PDF file.  If you donated, you may request books no charge.   My e-mail is: jimd303@reagan.com  My address is: James M Dakin, 181 W Bullion Rd #12, Elko NV 89801-4184
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Tuesday, June 19, 2018

sending your kid to college 2 of 2


SENDING YOUR KID TO COLLEGE 2
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Yesterday, I marveled at the business “sense” of most folks, chasing after the higher income customers.  Yes, I realize that no one can time the collapse, and your imperial drones pulling in extra pilfered treasure can go on for some time.  Or, it couldn’t.  Why is everyone assuming that we will still see a long slow collapse for another fifty years?  That seems a bit retarded to me.  If you plan on LESS disposable income, you are already betting on the prevailing trend.  Yet everyone chases the high incomes.  Those folks trying to sell pretty pony menstrual pads think they are smarter than Nordstrum’s?  Which, in case you missed the memo, is no longer the darling performer it was.

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Almost everywhere you look, you see this.  Look at Habeeb’s Lottery & Beer.  Just because he operates in the ghetto doesn’t mean he is all that smart about future business trends.  He counts on customers on the government dole.  Which, logically, must be cut sometime in the future.  I knew plenty of folks on the welfare that earned more than I did working minimum wage 25 hours a week.  More than that, once they got their Section 8 housing.  Yet, they might not be “high income” all that much longer and they sure as hell are just as insecure as a future customer. 

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The convenience store is also a stopgap measure feeding folks in a car-less suburb.  The high prices ensure it cannot survive far into the future just because of that, welfare customers or not.  This is not a sustainable business.  Well, you snort disdainfully as you consult your Libertarian 101 textbook, no business is forever.  I’ll just see what the market will bear and open another one.  Right.  Because by then, you’ll have no competition from those that already figured out how to meet the needs of the growing legions of poor.  And you’ll have plenty of resources to do so, because you didn’t spend them keeping that other turd afloat.  I’m being sarcastic.

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There is a lot to be blamed on the other trend, the financialization of the economy where everything ( and anything ) is taken over by the bankers.  Do you think Netflix or Amazon are “future poor trend” businesses?  Of course they are not.  They pretend to serve the poor customer, but they are losing money doing so.  The lost money part is so as to pump up their stock price for the benefit of the very few.  Why do you think Disney keeps churning out Star Wars movie failures?  It is just about keeping their stock price inflated ( they are cooking the books on the losses, such as neglecting to mention the acquisition costs ).

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Now, don’t get me wrong.  I love Amazon.  Both as a book lover and a micro-business owner.  But you can clearly see the cannibalization.  Remember how they used to take pride in a quick search for your item, avoiding clutter from graphics?  Now?  Slower than a sloth over broken glass as advertisements pop up EVERYWHERE.  It is beyond annoying.  And we put up with it because of near monopolies everywhere.  Okay, as I said, you can now beat Amazon on price with careful shopping.  Sometimes you need to buy in bulk, which is annoying also.  They are no longer the low price leader, but rather the One Stop Shopping that used to belong to Wally. 

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But you do see how they are getting away from Poor People as customers and slightly moving towards more affluent shoppers, yes?  That trend will only accelerate.  It has to, because they are losing money for market share.  They must keep compromising on lower prices to survive.  Look at a few that get it right.  www.sgammo.com , those wonderful guys that sell ammo cheap.  Certainly cheaper than Cheaper Than Dirt.  Granted, you need to come up with a case cost rather than a box cost.  But the great thing about that is you don’t need to be affluent to buy by the case.  You just need to be frugal and out of debt.

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Rather than chasing the customer with credit cards, it chases the guy so cheap he has no debt so he can seriously prepare for the zombie apocalypse.  And as a bonus, the indebted idiots also are customers on their way to the poorhouse.  It counts on folks needing to spend LESS.  That is the whole business model that needs to be emphasized.  LESS cost, not More.  Wally, and soon Amazon, Sears and K-Mart, they all started out asking for less, then went over to the Dark Side of demanding more.  Not just higher prices in dollar costs but in reduced quality. 

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Look at Alchem Incorporated ( http://alchemic.com ).  They offer metal prods for crossbows.  Have you tried buying a factory built crossbow with any kind of prod other than fiberglass or whatever crap plastic they use?  Perhaps they work just fine.  But I want old school metal, especially for the apocalypse ( and, I don’t have the machine tools to make my own ).  This company might not be the cheapest, but they are by no means Yuppie Scum orientated.  They offer quality at a reasonable cost.  We don’t need more of the cheapest.  That is what everyone else is offering, hence the fiberglass prods.  We need better for less.  Alchem seems to fit that model.

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Sportsmen’s Guide got huge and kept that pricing advantage for the customer.  As soon as it is ever sold, you can bet prices jump ten percent, then later another ten, just to pay for the merger.  I don’t discount that cost.  I’m saying that you can no longer acquire the competition and lower costs.  It just increases them.  Sportsman’s has kept in mind that there are a lot of customers that aren’t rich white guys.  There are plenty of rednecks out there with much small disposable income amounts, but in aggregate they are the better customer base to cater to. 

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There is nothing wrong with a niche business.  I’d imagine there are less crossbow prods to sell than there are reuseable menstrual pads.  One is potentially half the population and the other certainly is not.  One is reasonably priced to the growing trend of less disposable income and the other is not.  Who do you think will survive?   The one deeply in debt with high prices ( pads ), or the small workshop one selling at reasonable prices ( prods )?  And isn’t that sad, also?  It takes far cheaper tools to sew a pad than it does to cut and shape metal.  Also, inventory for steel is higher. 

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The pad company might survive, as more and more women get poor and have to go from disposable to reuseable.  But I doubt it.  A publication like the old Tightwad Gazette will come around and tell gals how to make their own pads for a buck, so that they come out ahead even AFTER subscribing to that newsletter.  Or, YouTube will get that business as video self help is much better than written instructions in many cases.  The Trend Is Your Friend.  Too bad most folks identify the wrong trend.  Hint, it ain’t “Growth Uber Alles”.

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*** Unless you are in extreme poverty, spend a buck a month here, by the above donation methods or buy a book. If you don't do Kindle, send me the money and I'll e-mail it to you in a PDF file.  If you donated, you may request books no charge.   My e-mail is: jimd303@reagan.com  My address is: James M Dakin, 181 W Bullion Rd #12, Elko NV 89801-4184
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Monday, June 18, 2018

sending your kid to college 1 of 2


SENDING YOUR KID TO COLLEGE
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*
The joke used to be, when something was outrageously priced, “what, am I sending your kid to college?”.  As if that one sale had enough profit to do exactly that.  I don’t think it is as widespread as it used to be, for the simple fact that most poor people are now acting just like those charlatans of old.  Most of us think and act like our next customer is the last one we’ll ever have and need to get enough profit to squirrel it away for the coming bad winter.  This really hit me when I went on my bi-weekly visit to Rawles.

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Oh, what a sad and empty place it has become.  It was never the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal, but it could have been akin to something along the lines of the Rapid City Reporter ( a large enough town to matter, with solid news-and by the way, I have no idea what the paper there is actually named ).  Now?  It is “USA Today”, all pie charts and photos and absolutely nothing of substance.  I keep visiting, and I have no idea why.  Except.  Hey, they did give me an article idea for today.  Thanks, “Rawlesian Preppers Illustrated Today”. 

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There was no real article to read so I’m just looking down the list of companies that are donating to the guest writer contest, and for some bizarre reason ( I know enough to not question my muse.  If he wants to read or watch some weird crap, he knows better than me ) I click on the folks that run the Naturally Cozy reuseable female time ’O the month products company.  And I couldn’t believe what I was seeing.  Each item is $12 and up.  For a cotton pad.  Sure, they were pretty, because gals are all about style and you need a fabric with pretty pictures for an item you want to slap up against your hoohoo and vomit blood into, evidently.  And they had a fastener. 

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ONE, please take the time to allow me to repeat, ONE friggin sanitary pad was the same cost as a ten pack of Gerber brand cotton reuseable diapers.  How many “cozies” could you make out of that?  No, they contained no pretty designs or pictures, and you’d need to make your own fastener, but merciful  good God in heaven,  is the price difference worth that much?  I would say, emphatically, not just no, but HELL no!  These people are, what?  That’s right, asking you to send their kid to college ( it just occurred to me that perhaps one reason you don’t hear that saying anymore is because college is now so expensive, only a Ferrari sale would be high enough to come close to be able to send the kid to school ).

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Know, I understand that gals are life focused on appearance.  That is their meal ticket.  The only thing I ever do coming close to any one of the dozens of daily grooming tasks they perform is keeping my mustache trimmed and each errant stray single hair concerns me ( I cut off the beard-while no where near the issues I had while younger, I still get boils in my beard and after a few months I’m scratching old not totally healed lumps I couldn’t stand it anymore.  And after just two or three shaves they are all gone ). 

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I get it, gals are just hard wired that way.  No judgment.  They are probably concerned they will get in a wreck and someone will see too-light-of-color menstrual pads with unsightly stains ( never mind you just crapped yourself in that auto accident-no minute grooming task is too great to not take the time on.  We may not appreciate it, but we should.  Lot’s of bitches be coyote ugly otherwise ).  So, how about throwing in a packet of dye, to go from white to red or black or whatever?  Right?  Not too difficult for the penny pinching frugal homestead wife.

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My point, at least this time, is NOT that we are all dumb asses and waste money on everything, although of course we do, but to ask, just what in the hell are companies like this thinking?  In the case of Naturally Cozy, I understand they bought the company from someone else ( I believe I’m remembering correctly ), plus they have to pay Rawles to give away their product as advertising.  Not cheap.  Rawles has to support a whole tribe with his “USA Yuppie Scum Today” site.  He is probably semi-retired, as writing one decent book really took it out of him these last almost three decades ( his last one, the new nation in Africa, is insanely stupid, being nothing more than a shopping trip without a credit card limit, blessed by God ).

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When times are good, people have money to spend on top notch items like a supply of menstrual pads starting at several HUNDRED bucks.  When times are lean, they buy the diapers and make it themselves for one twentieth the price.  And for the love of all that is good and holy, don’t supposed prepper advertisers believe the economy is getting worse?  How can they not, unless their target audience are just customers and the selection criteria is business only rather than philosophical?  Does anyone think I’m in this business just to make money?  No, I’m on a mission and money is my eventual reward for a yeoman job.  But I don’t expect to send my kid to college.

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Nor do I expect to drive a car on my writing income.  Or pay rent.  Or buy all that much in prepping items.  I lower my expectations closer to Turd World Country ( god, I love that play on words-not sure who I stole that from ) incomes rather than upper middle class ones, like all these fools do.  It seems as if 99% of all companies strive to snag, by nook or by crook, the higher income customers. Which are a shrinking pool!  That is stupid enough, because you are voluntarily pull-by-dating your business, but then you pick a business that is all but unnecessary?  Are people retarded, blissfully unaware, or just retarded?  Continued tomorrow.

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*** Unless you are in extreme poverty, spend a buck a month here, by the above donation methods or buy a book. If you don't do Kindle, send me the money and I'll e-mail it to you in a PDF file.  If you donated, you may request books no charge.   My e-mail is: jimd303@reagan.com  My address is: James M Dakin, 181 W Bullion Rd #12, Elko NV 89801-4184
*** Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for barely above Mere Book Money, so do your part.*** junk land under a grand *  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com *** Wal-Mart wheat***Amazon Author Page
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Sunday, June 17, 2018

money verses wealth


MONEY VERSES WEALTH
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Even though I kept repeating myself that silver was for the economic collapse instead of the civilization collapse, I want to balance the scales of discussion from money to wealth.  Silver is just money.  Wealth, for a time, will be the other, OTHER precious metal, ammunition, and obviously what should always be first, food.  Money shouldn’t be as important as we view it today.  Sure, it is somewhat important.  You can’t barter a truckload of broccoli for a FLIR scope.  But it is only a means of exchange, for the actual items we desire.  If you have food, shelter and protection, money is far less important. 

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And yes, food production is far more important than storage food, itself more important than money, but we can’t overlook the fact that the asshumps in charge have control of the production of food.  Homesteaders are on the right path, but they fundamentally forget that all that hard work feeding themselves is under the permission and control of the bankers and their buttboys the government.  You don’t need a thirty year mortgage on a farm to learn how to farm.  Anyone can learn how to farm, for free.  No one else wants to do the grunt work.  If farming is your thing, don’t confuse land title ownership with the ownership of that land.

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So for now, I focus on food storage.  I don’t discount production, I just don’t focus on it.  Production has so many problems that in my own circumstances I am better off with extra storage.  Fifteen years ago, I would have been better off focusing on production.  Now, I’m too old for that crap.  Storage must suffice.  Just remember that production isn’t the ONLY answer, nor is storage, for everyone.  Your mileage may vary.  I choose storage as a partial mitigating strategy to the issues of production monopoly as well as the desire to avoid the money economy to the best of my ability.  Hell, why not? After all, This Suckers Going Down.

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So, before you concentrate on money ( such as silver ), do you have enough wealth?  How is that food storage coming?  I know, wheat kernels are problematic.  You don’t need 400 pounds per year if it is too expensive.  A third of a pound a day is plenty of fresh greens and fiber, if you stock up on white flour.  What is a 25 pound sack of white flour now?  Something like $7.  Even if that whole wheat costs you a buck a pound mail order, ten pounds a month plus thirty of white flour cost you a whopping $20 maximum.  It isn’t ideal, and it isn’t all you want to store, but it is a very good bare bones diet to help you survive if you never get the extra you want, or it is a great core diet with the extras. 

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Are you stressed about Mylar bags and buckets costing twice what your food does?  Just trash pick plastic food containers ( and beg from your neighbors and coworkers ).  Drink all your soda from two liter bottles, rather than from fountain dispensers.  Rinse them out, then put them outside in the sun, opening face up, and they are bone dry in an hour or less.  Fill with flour and sugar ( sugar is twice the price of flour but about the same as rice, has extra calories per pound AND is a great condiment with calories ).  Boom, done, glorious wealth in a bottle.

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It isn’t as pretty as silver.  But it is STILL a consumable just like silver is.  Okay, silver can be a lifelong store of money, but to turn it into wealth, items you need, you must consume it.  And that two liter bottle full of flour which cost you literally just pennies, you don’t look at that as wealth ( compared to the silver ), but should.  Now, I know I am playing fast and loose with the definitions of wealth and money.  I consider food the ultimate form of wealth, although you may not.  That just means you are too used to the abundance of food we have as normal, but it is emphatically NOT.

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Us Dirt People, we’ve only ever had food as wealth.  We never had money, until recently, and you do understand that even far before closing the gold window and Saudi control over OPEC pricing oil in dollars, we were always using the surplus energy we had as a one time mining of extraordinary wealth.  We confuse that with money, but for a few hundred years we ignored the Malthusian norm of starving overpopulated peasants and wallowed in a food surplus.  We thought we were rich, which we were, but then thought extra food was normal and extra money was not, and chased the money.  Forgetting what wealth was. 

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All of our White People Problems?  That is due to our surplus of food.  Without food, all of our “problems” don’t mean dingus.  Who cares if you can fill up the SUV tank, or if the newest movie wasn’t as good as it should be, or if you were too old to pop out yet another kid from your VaginaATM, if you had to worry about eating.  Right now, you think you have actual problems, and you can’t be bothered with food storage.  Oh, rent is coming due.  Oh, I’m saving up for the wives birthday, a FLIR scope that you are positive she secretly wants. 

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You have the luxury of doing this now because food is the easiest thing in your universe.  You don’t have to worry that a 52cent bottle of flour could keep you alive for two days ( if you keep tamping it down, you can squeeze three pounds in rather than two, but I trust you see my point ).  So you don’t take your pocket change and fill up yet another bottle with flour.  Are you SURE you have your priorities straight?  Right now, you can go to Sportsman’s Guide and buy rimfire for 5.1 cents a round delivered.  You didn’t go last week, so now you are paying an extra tenth of a cent each.  Now you need to spend $99 for free shipping, and the bucket of bullets went from $70 to $72 ( subject to change, I am writing this 6-10-18 ). 

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I’m not saying rimfire has to be your priority.  I’m saying that 26cents a day food and 5cent ammunition is REAL wealth, and right this very second cheaper than dirt.  And that will change drastically.  At the same time that silver goes from derivative market manipulation actually under the cost of production price to Rare As Gold, your food will go from one thirty second of an hour of minimum wage ( literally less than two MINUTES of work ) for a days starvation diet to much more of a days labor.  In good historical times, food was STILL at a minimum of three hours of daily wages ( on a twelve hour work day ).  That is your price of wheat going from 25cents to almost 25 DOLLARS, in today’s prices.  And, those were in GOOD times.  Famines and wars saw prices far higher.

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That is the wonder of petroleum.  Which you are ignoring with all your might.  Buy these insanely undervalued assets NOW.  Before you worry about money.

END ( today's related link https://amzn.to/2sS7HOa )
 
Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon ad graphics at the top of the page ( or from www.bisonbulk.blogspot.com ).
*** Unless you are in extreme poverty, spend a buck a month here, by the above donation methods or buy a book. If you don't do Kindle, send me the money and I'll e-mail it to you in a PDF file.  If you donated, you may request books no charge.   My e-mail is: jimd303@reagan.com  My address is: James M Dakin, 181 W Bullion Rd #12, Elko NV 89801-4184
*** Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for barely above Mere Book Money, so do your part.*** junk land under a grand *  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com *** Wal-Mart wheat***Amazon Author Page
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there

 

 

Saturday, June 16, 2018

silver fundamentals 2 of 2


SILVER FUNDAMENTALS 2
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*
I’ve probably been talking too much about silver recently.  It is at the bottom of your prepping list, and just a substitute for too much paper currency.  Silver is really skirting the line of “for the prepper that has everything”.  I don’t mean to imply its ownership is mandated ( other than for property tax on your junk land ).  So, just like when I talk about semi-auto’s, I’m not approving them, I’m discussing them for the minions who disagree with me on them.  When should you get extra silver?  When you start waking up at night with that nagging feeling that you have way too much paper currency and you’re worried you’ve gone from “necessary in an emergency” to the far less desirable “just going to sit there and lose value”.  This is STILL about silver for the economic collapse, NOT civilization collapse.

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I told you about silver being destroyed by its use in industrial goods ( photography, solar panels ).  I had heard 90% destruction of all mined metal.  I believe that source was from SRS Rocco Report, who I trust with little reservation.  A YouTube video stated that the figure was 97%, the additional 7% in just the last six to ten years.  According to that source ( which I have no secondary verification of ), a century ago we had 20 billion ounces aboveground and today just 300 million.  That might be hyperbole, so don’t quote me. 

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Unfortunately, regardless of the true numbers, the basic premise these people view silver through is flawed.  Silver tied to industrial uses, and depriving its value therein, was just a blip on the historical record.  It won’t continue, as the fuel to drive any modern industry disappears.  Silver will return to its monetary value only.  So, we not only have most ores drying up in supply ( remember, they need to be abundant AND cheap, to fit the current paradigm.  They don’t have to disappear completely before being uneconomical ), we have the need for silver in industry also beginning to end.

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If we’ve pissed away most of our silver taking photo’s of Aunt Gertrude, which we then throw away when she’s been dead long enough, silver becomes far more dear as a monetary unit.  If you are going to buy silver ( just like IF you were going to buy semi magazines-not an endorsement, a discussion on another choice ), you have very little time left to do so, in my view.  One is the supply dry up.  And another is the economy.  Specifically, the derivatives market.  These idiot bankers are repeating 2007 all over again, yet this time, under the erroneous belief that the central bank can bail them out indefinitely, they doubled down on their bad behavior from before.

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Look, I’ll be the first to admit that I had no idea the banks COULD be bailed out the first time.  It could happen again ( as it has been for the last ten years ).  But there is a LOT of details that convince me that more likely than not, this time it could definitely be Game Over.  I’m not claiming this has a 100% change of occurring, but if I was a betting man ( which we all are, with our futures ), I’d say this time is different.  This time the crash is real and unavoidable.  If the Fracking Bubble is almost over, that means the last engine that pulled our economy the last decade is out of steam.  If the PetroDollar is almost defeated, that means we lose 60% of our daily oil supply.

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We JUST used 90% of all the silver ever mined to make disposable items that were at most pennies of profit.  We JUST drew out the last of the oil from stripped wells to keep the SUV’s rolling to the shopping mall, buying products containing the last of the conventional oil in the form of plastics.  What is the basis for your optimism that we can pull something else out of our ass to kick the can down the road again?  I could very well be wrong.  There is or could be something to save us.  But do you want to gamble one way or another?

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I don’t really care all that much about the tariff wars unfolding.  I’m more concerned about the exponential dollar dump with the end of the PetroDollar.  Then ALL imported products go way up in price to infinity.  But right now, not as long-ish term like our oil control, there is the whole mess with stiff pushback in Europe against the European Union.  It seems the least of the issues is that some countries don’t actually see fuzzy dark foreigners as their salvation.  The bigger issues involve money.  As usual.  And how much upset can they stand over there, over money, before those dumbass bankers with as little as ONE FRIGGIN PERCENT in assets to cover their derivatives positions ignite a Lehman’s Moment?

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Who is going to be the new Lehman’s bank, that starts the domino dump for the world economy?  Hell, I’ve made fun of the European economy being used as a distraction, as we kept hearing “country X is about to crash” time after time.  Europe isn’t even the main concern.  They are just the spark that could start the explosion.  And that spark could start anywhere, even back here in New York.  And once the economy takes a Big Squishy, not only does mining stop ( unless it is a national rather than banker controlled asset, AND they have local logistics to mine and ship ), all those silver futures with no backing implode.  That is a whole other kettle of fish.

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The silver now local and already mined, that is the silver on hand.  So don’t delude yourself silver will be the new currency.  We are at a point the Romans were, where all of the empires silver was shipped over to China in trade.  They lost most of their silver, not to return for many generations.  Well, we just did the same damn thing.  Our silver went to China and was turned into disposable consumer items.  Before, silver traded for silk still saw the silver survive, even if it took centuries to make its way back to Europe.  Now, what silver?

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If you get rid of silver now, there will not be a replacement for it.  I would horde silver as if it were gold, not “merely just silver”.  We pissed away our silver thinking it was forever replaceable, just as the Romans did, until it wasn’t.  So, forget all that crap in post-apocalypse fiction about the junk silver currency.  Barter ONLY.  Silver will be far too precious and rare.  NOT abundant as it was since Christopher Columbus.  I stopped buying silver at $8 an ounce, more than ten years ago.  I concentrated on beans and bullets and bunkers.  Now, I’m thinking $20 silver right now is a far better deal than silver was at $5 fifteen years ago.  I could be wrong.  I doubt it.

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Friday, June 15, 2018

guest article-article 1 of 2 today


Cc:
GUEST ARTICLE-article 1 of 2 today 
Survival retreat considerations

The more I think on it, the more that I tend to favor the semi-nomadic survival retreat strategy. The hardened and well defended shelter approach, to me, seems largely impractical and unobtainable for the average survivalist. Of course, as I’ve stated many times before in the comments here, only those that go remote will have a shot at survival. However, the possibility of discovery still exists, and should this happen, you are compromised in the worst way possible. Better to have the flexibility to move on in the case of this unfortunate event. You will lose your husbanded labors, but better this than your life. Of course this strategy heavily relies on an effective cache system. It would also be ideal to own the land, as opposed to public land, in order to reduce the chances of your cached supplies being compromised.

I feel that post collapse desert dwellers will have a better shot at it than their wilderness brethren. The desert, being the inhospitable place that it is, will not be the first choice for many looking for easy pickens. Charles Manson, nuttier than squirrel feces in an almond orchard, though he was, knew a thing or two about a thing or two, and was said to embrace the concept of survivalism. As such, ole Chuck chose an area with the rather inhospitable name of Death Valley for his hideout retreat.

The desert dweller would do well to learn the concepts of Air Wells, Fog Fences, Dew Ponds, solar stills, solar distillation, and the reading of topographical maps. Know the location of the caves, as well as water sources in your chosen area. If your area permits successful foraging, then you’re ahead of the game. Otherwise, learning the art of stealth planting would extend your food supplies. Try to pick edible plants that are native to the area, which in all likelihood, are what you will be limited to growing. Keep it small, though in the desert, you likely won’t have a choice in the matter, and small it will be.

For shelter, this leaves limited options, since whatever you decide on must be crappy enough that you can abandon it at will, yet be good enough to protect you from the elements. Immediately, the wickiup comes to mind. There’s also its much simpler cousin, the debris shelter, that resembles a cocoon, and is small enough that it relies mostly on body heat for warmth. Some of the debris shelters that I saw, actually looked pretty cozy:


Having a few high quality tarps on hand can extend your shelter options. Caves of course are wonderful when you can find them. In cold weather, be careful about lighting fires in caves or under rock overhangs though. I’ve heard a few horror stories about the heat from the fire fracturing the rock, and burying the unfortunate resident under a few tons of stone. A cold weather sleeping bag would be a very nice item to have for the mobile survivalist. This would enable you to forgo the all telling fire for warmth. Though you still need a fire to cook and purify water at times. This is where the Dakota fire pit is advantageous.

silver fundamentals 1 of 2-article 2 of 2 today


SILVER FUNDAMENTALS ( article 2 of 2 today )
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When you consider whether or not to buy silver ( I’m assuming any minion wealthy enough to buy gold is over at Rawles site, who while after feverishly slamming the Buy button at his advertisers FLIR scope store multiple times in nipple tightening glory has enough left over to pay for a private consultation AND then stack lots of gold.  Less well off  minions treat themselves to silver after tightening the budget.  Frugal hermit redneck minions can only afford copper and sort through for pre-82 pennies ), you must anticipate fundamentals changing. 

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As usual, that pesky timing issue works diligently to queer up the deal, so this is a trend warning, not a stab at timing.  I could be dead before anything I’ve written about in the last ten years happening, or I could be bayoneting babies ( a snide reference to Anglo propaganda on German atrocities in WWI ) well past my prime.  I have no clue about timing.  I can only say, “be prepared yesterday” and “I’m always right on the trend, not the time”.  But I see several major silver trends changing dramatically.  This isn’t really a great time to be listening to the Precious Metal porn stars.  Forget about industrial use of silver.  Forget about industry, period.  The gold and silver ratio is less an indicator of future price than shortage is.  And silver is running out along with the Industrial Oil Age ( plus, derivatives will change things ).

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I am of the mind that silver is going to run out quickly and shoot up in price ( as will gold ), but precious metals are NOT, ever, never, an investment.  They are a safe transfer of wealth through collapse, calamity and confusion.  Anyone that thinks silver is an investment is welcomed to do a bit of research at the price of that metal in 1980, compared to ever since.  It is just an inflation proof savings, AND you cannot time that inflationary period. 

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Before, I was only recommending silver as a store for inflation proofing your property tax obligations through to the die-off.  I really only recommend the same now, regardless as to whether you convert bank savings to silver as I just did.  My purchase had a whiff of desperation about it ( I simply have too much cash cached and worry about inflation-and I know many of you would advise beans and bullets or FLIR scopes and AR’s, but this is my savings, not my stockpile.  You need both, for that pesky economic collapse that occurs before the die-off ).  I don’t know if you should emulate me.

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But if you ARE thinking about it, you need to know what has changed in our world which contradicts a lot of PM Princess’ data.  I recently read, but did NOT verify, that ( to paraphrase ) 90% of all gold ever mined is still being hoarded and that 90% of all silver ever mined has been destroyed by industrial use.  I believe this was brought up as the amount of recycled silver has dropped drastically.  Perhaps the huge push to photovoltaic panel every house in China has used up far more silver than realized.  Okay, I don’t know for sure what the domestic market is for PV panels in China, but I wouldn’t put it past them to have such a strategy.

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If this is correct that all the recycled silver is drying up, and as primary silver mines are running out, AND the global economic implosion will shut down a lot of mines that produce precious metal as a byproduct of industrial metal ( many times the PM are the only profit, and the primary ores are mined at cost ), or at least drastically curtail production, silver is about to get VERY dear.  This is not to say “buy now and profit” as much as it is to note this might be the last opportunity to buy silver.  Period.

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I’ve harped on this for many years.  Ores are running out.  Whenever I say, hey, only diffuse ores are being extracted now, and have been for twenty odd years, you say something like “look at all those untapped reserves in Afghanistan or country X”.  Okay, I’m looking.  What do I see?  Ore that is uneconomical to extract.  Uneconomical to extract when oil was $40 a barrel.  Do you see a problem here?  Anyone who cheers for oil from the Rocky Mountains, or untapped ores, is in effect saying that ocean saltwater or asteroids have all the gold we’d ever need.  We just need the energy to extract it.  Energy we don’t have.

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Oh, plenty of oil, abiotic oil, respected authors jumping the shark declare.  Sure, just wait a hundred years while that drained reserve trickle charges again.  It’s like running a semi truck that carries one twentieth the cargo because the batteries are most of the weight, on a single solar panel.  In overcast western Oregon.  We were running out of ore almost thirty years ago, and were forced to use far more energy extracting the less desirable sources.  And we did that with super cheap oil.  Which doesn’t exist anymore, as we’re busy depleting those diffuse sources, which, when scraped dry, are to be substituted with…what?

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Peak Oil isn’t the end of oil.  It is the end of CHEAP oil, the kind we built an infrastructure to rely on.  Peak Ore isn’t when ore runs out.  It is when affordable ore runs out.  Peak Oil was 13 years ago.  11 years ago our economic problems started.  Why do you think expensive energy can mine inexpensive ores?  Plenty of discoveries, in both energy and ores, will be ignored or abandoned.  You could argue that industrial use demand destruction will free silver for the PM market, but I contend that the supply will contract so much ( as the recycle market dies ) that even then the price will skyrocket. 

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Remember how shortages work?  A ten percent demand increase causes prices to quadruple.  Do you even remember the rimfire shortage that lasted for years?  The rice shortage was solved more by empty shelves and purchase limits than rising prices ( rimfire was both ).  But that is even worse, since no rice for zero cost is not as handy as some rice at inflated prices if you are hungry.  I’ll continue tomorrow.

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*** Unless you are in extreme poverty, spend a buck a month here, by the above donation methods or buy a book. If you don't do Kindle, send me the money and I'll e-mail it to you in a PDF file.  If you donated, you may request books no charge.   My e-mail is: jimd303@reagan.com  My address is: James M Dakin, 181 W Bullion Rd #12, Elko NV 89801-4184
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