Tuesday, May 21, 2019

the 2020 crash 2


THE 2020 CRASH 2
You want to believe that fracking fuel is the same thing as conventional oil.  It is emphatically NOT.  Not only is the net energy delivered from it far less, the only thing you get out of the bastard is gasoline.  All that neat stuff in petroleum like diesel to transport food to your ass, that doesn’t come with fracking oil.  No one is saying gasoline isn’t a great thing.  When you live thirty miles from town it is indeed a very good thing to have available.  All I’m saying is that it isn’t the same thing.  Apples and oranges.
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With the ongoing economic slowdown globally, less fuel is required.  Which means that few people with the means to buy oil are forced to accept Canadian tar, Venezuelan sludge or American fake fracking fuel.  Instead they can have plain old conventional oil.  Which means that fracking fuel is selling for less.  Less demand, lower price.  Lower prices for fracking fuel simply place that much more stress on the industry to keep pumping.  Now, that said, we do have our current gasoline price hikes which are skewing the above dynamic.  There might be production declines in fracking.
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The Federal Reserve doesn’t say, print up money and give it to the frackers.  It prints up money and says, hey want to borrow money at 1% interest?  Giving and loaning are two different things.  In 2009, when local governments were in trouble with being unable to tax enough, the federal government didn’t GIVE them money.  The central bank offered really favorable terms on loans.  So it was with the fracking boys.  They still have to service those loans.  Even if you never pay principle, one percent of millions and billions STILL requires extra profits from your business to pay back.
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And the fracking industry as a whole makes what kind of profit?  That’s right, zero.  It is a bit difficult to pay back any interest on zero profit.  Obviously, these guys are masters of screwing over someone somehow to pretend to make profits to pad their quarterly bonus pay which buys hookers and blow.  But you can only play a rigged game for so long.  It looks as if presently even as oil prices increase, frackers are still starting to fail spectacularly.  Just a whiff, mind you.  I’m not predicting anything as the data is lacking. 
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This could be nothing more than simply the natural halt to increased production.  To come close to profit, or to boost the stock prices, the frackers went hog wild on new drilling.  In desperation, lower production wasn’t even a consideration.  But they probably maxed out drilling even the marginal fields and it got too expensive and they have to cut back on the increases.  Which in a growth paradigm economy is the same as decline.  When you MUST grow, a return to less growth or no growth is the same as falling production.  Plateauing is the same as falling.
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The gap between fracking prices and conventional prices has also closed.  To me, this might give credence to the theory that the Midwest flooding is going to cut ethanol production.  The only fly in that theory is that I’m not sure how much gasoline MUST be ethanol.  I know 10% is the regular mix, but can folks put in less, voluntarily?  If so, if fracking fuel is in increased demand to substitute for the falling ethanol supply ( or the perceived coming falling in supply ), and prices rise even with the global slowdown, this tells me the fracking supply is contracting.
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Again, I’m Wild Ass Guessing here.  I simply don’t have enough information.  But a telling indicator was that the government agency that makes up the statistics of energy ( for instance, counts imported crude being refined then shipped back out as production.  True story ) just adjusted projected fracking production down.  That usually means they wildly overestimated positively and then start slowly taking off fractions of percentage points each time so as not to be caught in too much of a lie.  In the meantime, reality was ten percent down the whole time.  Such is our faithful public servants modus operandi.   
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Now, this could mean several things.  Fracking companies are failing, or cutting production to cut operating loses.  The fields are producing less and there is nowhere else to go to keep up production.  Banks have finally stopped loaning as much to continue.   Or a combination of those.  But even if production for whatever reason still decreases ever so slightly, it still adds up to NO growth.  In itself this could be a small thing, but added to all the other issues ( primarily caused from higher interest rates ) it could very well be the straw on the camels back.
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Now, I will say that if you wanted to get extra super paranoid, you could dive down the rabbit hole, revise your SpyCraft 101 learning, and wonder if all this reported data isn’t a theatre production to take our minds off far worse occurrences.  Say, the death of the PetroDollar having advanced far more than thought.  Derivatives failures in the fracking financial sector causing the next Lehman’s Moment.  Use your imagination-it can always be far worse.  But JUST the best case, and the economic crash is already started.  Lack of energy GROWTH is what brought us the 1970’s.
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Granted, plateauing of energy production alone didn’t give us the Disco Decade.  Vietnam ushering in the death of empire, the end of the gold standard, our subsidizing Japanese and Korean steel to grow anti-communist economies killing off our own industry, all these and more baked the cake.  Today, we have as many factors leading to the crash.  The death of the PetroDollar, the inability of anyone to borrow any more money, the ( likely ) quadrupling of the Derivatives Market in the last decade, unlimited immigration, the falling energy EROI.  And more.  When it finally all converges into the Perfect Storm, the ship goes down.  Fun times.
( .Y. )
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43 comments:

  1. Good points, however just trust in your master's higher wisdom. Elko county had numerous drilling permits granted recently as they are poking around in nevada for fracking oil out of the ground there to. (It is there just harder, more drilling costs to get at) the boom parade will come to town there too. Mainstreet lined up with pottery and bath soap shops. Semi illiterate Oil field workers driving around with lifted $70k trucks that get trashed in the dirt and mud then turned in to a repo man in 3 years during collapsed local oil economies as the fields dry up and everything moves on elsewhere. Oh yeah, as follows everywhere more crime, drugs, truck stop lot lizard prostitute scanks, alcoholic bums mooching off a boom town's teet everywhere, etc. It will all be o.k. kids as the hydrogen fuel cell systems, and cold fusion power plants come on line. Stay frosty.

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    1. I'm astounded anyone actually bought those permits. I seriously can't see it happening here.

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    2. Seriously, guy..."semi literate oilfield workers"? Any one of them probably has more technical know how, experience, and initiative than you could muster up in 5 lifetimes.
      What lame ass phrase do you spout off for men in the patch?... "deplorables"? Typical coddled bi+ch.
      You seem familiar with the term "lot lizard"...
      Bite me.

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    3. It's a strategic play by corporatists using those bankster loans with rates you and I could never get. They buy permits and or leases on possible or provens to cockblock other competitors. Casino companies do similar buying plots of land in an area potentialy zoned for casinos and may never build on it or even in a distant future to tie up the land for that use or zoning and scare off competitive investments in like kind property in the area. (Macro brainiacs) if oil market dynamics, like precious metal mining claims change, they can then spool up to frack your Elko asses raw profitably at 100+ a barrel oil markets. Be cognizant of happenings in your A.O. there won't be published advertisements of an oncoming onslaught.

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    4. Anon-surely not all of the workers are in high education required fields? And I thought "Deplorables" were the White Boys version of the N Bomb by Blacks-we can call ourselves that and it is a complement by virtue of NOT being the asswhoes that invented the term. I think if you take the comment in the spirit it was ( I think ) intended, you see it was alluding to the modern equivalent of a 1849 miners camp or a town on the cowboy trail. I took it that way, but I may be wrong.

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    5. 11:37-thank you, thank makes sense. I guess my mind isn't diabolical enough to think in those terms. I guess I won't be in charge of tactics PA. I will say though that is doesn't matter how high the price of oil goes. The inputs for fracking will keep pace. Hence, it won't happen. You cannot JUST frack crap spots-you need Sweet Spots to keep your numbers up. I think Elko qualifies as All Crap.

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  2. Hmmm. Trying out a new academic math formula: collapse x system failures ÷ a large population die off = vastly reduced resource consumption from reduced humans. Hell, that adds up to winning! When can we get this started already?

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    1. Don't worry, it already has! Time to make lemonade out of lemons and enjoy the ride.

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  3. Oh Jim, so many dark alleys to enlighten...I'll probably make a couple more posts to counter your entries from today & yesterday.
    On the attached Platts story there is a paragraph: "SHIP MOVEMENS, HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL"
    If you go to bottom of that 'graph is a note that Carlyle Group (very well connected private equity firm...think Deep State) is seeking to invest $400 million on EXPANDING Corpus Christie port facilities to handle INCREASED EXPORTS of petroleum from the South Texas Eagle Ford shale play (that's fracking zone HQ...fyi).
    Now ask yourself, "why would one of the most connected PE firms invest $400 MM if fracking is neither profitable or long term?").
    https://blogs.platts.com/2019/03/21/houston-shipping-bottleneck-oil-petchems/

    Just doing my part to bring the lamp out from under the bowl...

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    1. Fracking is profitable for the banks. No matter what. AND, it is profitable on sweet spot areas. Industry wide, no one has proven profitability past fudged potential investor prospectuses. They don't have to be profitable enough to pay back that 400m. They just have to make the guys in charge mega-bucks. Kind of like the Sears CEO made money on the company going into the toilet.

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    2. I think you're misinformed as to how private equity firms operate, especially Carlyle. This $400MM investment isn't coming from banks. It's coming directly from pockets of seriously connected people (Bush family, Carlucci and Rumsfeld [both fmr Sec DoD]). Guys who invest with Carlyle aren't drupes willing to let mgt skim big salaries for sub-standard returns. This ain't your suburban midlevel salary guy blindly putting away 401(k) money and praying he gets enough return so he has tuna & crackers for retirement instead of trapping backyard rats.
      These are the guys that hire private armies around the world. Can you say Blackwater?

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    3. Don't these firms profit off of destroying companies and industries? But be that as it may, is the port not set up for more than just fracking activity? It was my understanding that Venezuela can only refine its fuel in Tobago and Texas. And wasn't the Tobago site shut down? I have little knowledge of the minutia of refineries. Is this a facility that only loads ships leaving? Also, what is the payback period on the increased volumes? If it is a two or three year turnaround, this could be enough for a reasonable profit. If the fracking can stretch out that long...Now, what about both tax write-offs and shorting this activity? These guys are greedy, smart and ruthless. Could they be making money on something other than just Forever Fracking?

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    4. You're painting with too broad a brush. Some PE firms are "vulture" culture firms (think Romney at Bain Capital w/bonds) others are pure VC (venture capital) firms & some are legit "turnaround firms" that jettison the bad fits and manage the remainder.
      I think of Carlyle is like 17th C Dutch West Indies Co. Smart, politically connected & profit focused.
      Carlyle is investing in expanding Corpus's petroleum export infrastructure, not other port facilities [source is Oilprice.com article from March].
      Tobago was a refining site for Venezuela...that stopped due to sanctions I think. Foreign flagged tankers get sanctioned and Venezuela's small fleet either stranded in port like in Portugal for nonpayment of port fees or else they are runing bootleg fuel to Cuba (gotta pay for Cuba's mercenaries & "doctors"). Besides Venezuelan crude production can't even provide needs for home use. Long fuel lines at stations around country now.
      Fyi...serious money guys like Carlyle don't invest $400MM solely for tax purposes. I'm sure local tax abatements etc were part of deal but Carlyle is looking for top line revenue growth, not tax arcana.

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    5. Okay, so what about shorts? You invest in an industry, hype up the thing, all the while shorting its failure. And yes, I tend to paint with a broad brush. How else do you get the big picture?

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    6. No such record of Carlyle running a "short". They're pretty long term guys....think Buffet but dressed like a Great White shark.
      "Hypeing" and running shorts is some "B" grade (& dropping fast) action movie set in a Brooklyn boiler room with no name actors putting on exaggrerated Italian accents and saying "Capiche, Salvatore?".
      Quick! Jim, catch the matinee...movie won't last a week in theatres. The day old popcorn is better than the flick.

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    7. I'm probably not using "short" correctly then. So, they buy a derivative which insures on a loss. Done spectacularly by Goldman on the housing bubble. Lehman's fired the guy who suggested the same strategy. Or was it Bear's?

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  4. Late last week, I was driving somewhere in the evening and a commercial came on the radio flogging investment in oil wells. I am 80% sure the announcer was referring to fracking, but was not really listening until late in the commercial. It took me back about 20 years when I heard commercials for phone booths. You could buy a phone booth, get it installed somewhere and rake in the bucks people spend on phone calls (minus costs, obviously). This was when cell phones were getting very popular. Clearly, the smart money was staying away from phone booths as an investment, so they were going for the dumb money. I'm dumb money (never mind that story) but was not dumb enough to invest in a phone booth.
    Could it be that more and more of the smart money is staying out of oil wells/fracking?

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    1. No, the commercials sound too familiar from all during the fracking boom. I don't think they rely on dumb money-the scheme has gone on too long.

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  5. Drove down to the bottom end of the county, some 40 miles one way, this morning to look at a piece of property and observed NONE of the thousands of acres of farm land being planted. Not one single inch of field is being grown this year. Noticed the drop off last year too, but this year it seems to be county wide. Constant rain seems to be the obvious problem. It's barely letting up around here. I can't get anything done outside, but I'm getting a lot of stuff done inside, and a lot of sitting around. Is this climate change? If so, there's going to be a lot of hurtin people pretty soon. Corn and soybeans are BIG money around these parts.

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    1. Could the farmers be waiting until the last minute to increase their odds? Or, is the last minute already come and gone?

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    2. Planting insurance usually mandated by lenders for operating loans. Farmers will get dinged if fields flooded, but they won't go over the cliff just because of spring rains. If they fail its because they were already marginal and their balance sheets are shot.

      Here's FAQs on insurance program

      https://www.rma.usda.gov/en/Fact-Sheets/National-Fact-Sheets/Prevented-Planting-Insurance-Provisions-Flood

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    3. I think the issue for us is projecting shortages. Farmers going bankrupt isn't an issue, as another takes their place.

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    4. No shortage of soy or corn in world mkts. Not necessarily multi year surpluses piled outside but enough to see only moderate price increase. Ag commodities are pretty much fungible. US corn no different than Ukranian or Argentinian on world mkts for most part. Maybe a couple % difference on price.
      Example: China retaliated against US soy because of Trump tariff earlier this year and halted purchases.
      Remember how Trump went to Iowa and told growers they would be made whole by using US collected tariffs on ChiCom mfg goods?
      So China stopped buying and went to Argentina for the soy (i.e.ChiCom pig food)....Well weather problems in Argentina decreased crop. Not enough local soy for the unexpected ChiCom purchases. So the big grain merchants (Bunge) brought US soy meal into Argentina and loaded up the ChiCom ships.
      Presto! Fungible ag commodities.

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    5. Ha! Good story. We can re-flag corn just like we do ships.

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  6. Back again!!!
    Yesterday you noted 2/5ths (40%) of US petroleum consumption comes from imports. Sorry Jim....just wrong. Total 2018 consumption was around 20.5 MMB.
    9.7MMB was imported. A good sized share was actually diesel coming from Europe.
    A bit over 7.2MMB was exported by US in 2018. A fair share of that was gasoline to Mexico.
    Results in a NET of 2.5MMB imports over exports.
    In my New Math brain....2.5MMB is not 40% of consumption, more like 9+%. Info below shows US consumption.
    Note I use term "petroleum" for all liquid hydrocarbons, not just crude

    https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6

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    1. My figures are 6m a day conventional, 6 fracking, out of 20 use. If we are swapping home grown for imported, to me that is a wash. I don't consider fracking natural gas liquid or other minor sources. Just conventional and fracking compared to total use. How is my simplification skewing the numbers?

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    2. Jim, I'm giving you EIA numbers. My number of 9% is a little low. S/b 11% of US consumption is imported.
      Following paragraphs from their FAQs:

      How much oil consumed by the United States comes from foreign countries?

      In 2018, U.S. net imports (imports minus exports) of petroleum from foreign countries averaged about 2.34 million barrels per day, equal to about 11% of U.S. petroleum consumption.1 This was the lowest percentage since 1957.

      Petroleum includes crude oil and petroleum products. Petroleum products include gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, jet fuel, chemical feedstocks, asphalt, biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel), and other products.

      Now all that being said I don't have frack oil vs conventional oil production numbers at hand. But do remember that around 60% of fracking is for nat gas, NOT liquid petroleum (oil).
      Not hating on you but I don't know how much clearer you need numbers to be.
      Hey, I'm perfectly fine taking in raw crude and exporting gasoline or polypropylene feedstocks. Isn't that a keystone of capitalism...specialization?
      Turn a lower value product into a higher value product, right?
      Hell our import numbers are smallest since 1957!

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    3. I don't look at government stats. I read a wide variety of analysts and take their numbers. So, they are all wrong? Every book I've read and every web site I've seen is wrong. According to the same government that tells us unemployment is under 4%. And I didn't read two books and two web sites. I've read scores of books, if not hundreds, on Peak Oil and I don't know how much I've read online ( limited to the last four years, mostly ). I've been plugging away since just after the turn of the century. Please don't rely on the government and corporations to assure you that you are not the mark in their con game.

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    4. Well I didn't just read a book or look at a website...grew up with O&G. Worked in related industry. Sat in the weekly teleconferences with analysts about outlooks spanning the country. Saw the numbers and shifts in financial positions weeks/months ahead of public info releases.
      Not a keyboard kommando on this subject, ok?
      I imagine gov't can "cook the books on stats for a few things that are very narrow (nuke energy) or small.
      But US govt can't cook stats on huge industry that is linchpin of civilization. Thousands of really smart guys double, triple checking EVERY stat out there. The intelligence budgets of private companies and anaylyts make CIA blush. Too much money involved for gov't to cheat and not get caught. If bond mkt caught a whiff....baby it's all over.
      Sure govt might tweek a couple of percent here and there but they can't fake years worth of data in O&G industry to any appreciable degree.
      Maybe, the Saudis can cook production numbers by chopping off heads of curious people but US can't.
      Lord Bison, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar

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    5. After Fuki, too much radiation was showing up for comfort. Can't stampede the cows. They just stopped reporting. Running the housing bubble up to profitable levels, derivatives masked the data. The lies and deceit are institutionalized. Back in your day, most institutions were legit. Now? Barely a one.

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  7. I'd be interested in knowing what this "ongoing economic slowdown globally" you speak is all about?
    Seriously.
    Are you all atitter about Pres Trump squeezing Bejing's balls with 25% tariff on $250MM in exports?
    That definitely knocked them onto their heells after they balked and snorted on the orig amt of 10%. Guess what...the rest of the world except the usual broke ass suspects (Norks, Cuba, Venezuela, Iran) support America FINALLY standing up to the Ornamentals predatory policies (aided by D.C. whores).
    Not that world is too badly impacted.
    Beijing runs about a net $362 B ann'l trade balance with entire world. Of that, around $327 B is just with USA. Rest of world combined is the remaining $35 B. Think about that...90% of China's total balance surplus is with one country. Yep, pretty shitty position to be in when one client is everything.
    What global slowdown?
    Europe finally making tenative steps of killing the nanny state. Salvini election in Italy, Yellow Vests continuing protests against Macron and the École Elites, Brexit supporters still hanging in and ironically expected to win most MEP seats.
    The recent election in Australia where the conservatives (nationalists?) "surprised" media projections.
    I see "Fair Trade" proponents making good progress against long empowered globalists.
    Economics is downstream of these political rumblings.

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    1. I'm not paying attention to the tariff issue. I'm just looking at a global slowdown impacting everyone. Ford just announced a layoff. Of 10% of its workforce. Company after company goes bankrupt closing all their stores. This has nothing to do with tariffs-it has everything to do with forces already if effect previously. I don't care how it effects China. Look how it is impacting us.

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    2. Should that be "affects"? Hold on, checking dictionary.

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  8. re:
    from the 'somebody didn't watch the movie' department

    This appears to be a legitimate company offering a legit product:
    https://soylent.com

    Now, finally, I can die happy, satisfied I saw everything.

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    1. Are you sure this is a legit company? Could it just be a joke?

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  9. Sorry to hear of anyone's layoff but May 20 NYTimes story has it this is the final chapter in a 2 yr GLOBAL effort. Layoffs will be in tranches concluding in August when total final number finally reaches 7K (10% of WORLDWIDE staff).
    1500 of the 7K came last year from US white collar staff.
    Sorry, I can't panic when 7K over 2 years from around entire world get pink slips.
    What are you kevetching about?? You want some Utopian guaranteed employment at same job forever?
    I think the Norks beat you to that....called slave labor.
    Like I said, sorry to hear about layoffs but to lose your job when "official" unemployment stats show 3.6%, meh! Those laid off in US got trimmed in a labor short environment. I don't think their situations are all dire.

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    1. Please, I'm begging you, for your own good, stop listening to those vested in lying to you. The fact that Ford must layoff so many workers when all the shills are saying "economy doing wonderful" means things are NOT doing so well. If they are lying about that, what else are they lying about? You don't need to leap down that rabbit hole, but at least edge closer and peek in.

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    2. Jim, it's not a conspiracy or global economic meltdown. Sometimes upper mgmt just screws up and makes bad decisions (ever hear of Ford Edsel or Ford Pinto).
      Good golly what about Studebaker?
      Companies change directions, change product lines....little guys get bumped to the curb.
      Ford mgmt didn't navigate their GLOBAL environment perfectly.
      My Japanese branded vehicle is US made with very high % of US sourced parts. I say hurrah for the US workers that built it, not merely "assembled" it from an imported box of finished goods.
      Can you say Ford's top selling vehicle F-150 truck has as high US content as my car....don't think so. The $40k F150 probably delivers less economic benefit to US because it has LOTS of Mexican parts embedded in it.
      7K layoffs from WORKDWIDE workforce is Ford mgmt issue...not a sign of the end of days because of US energy situation.

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    3. Ford is merely the latest example. Obviously, if all US auto makers went out of business it would barely matter. It isn't like Detroit can get much worse ( and I've heard terrible things about Mexican parts-but just like China, they build what they are told to ). We could talk about Deuatche Bank ( misspelled ), how they are almost a penny stock ( plenty of foreign banks were also deemed To Big To Fail in 2008-the initial bail out was over $7 trillion, only found out under a FOIA request ). That is probably partially by design, as not only did the US destroy oil nations going off the petrodollar, we set out to destroy the Euro as a competitor. But there are simply far too many indicators out there of collapse. Just look down at Main Street in any non-9% drone city on the coast. Follow that up with just a few looks behind the scenes. Look at auto delinquencies, student loan non-payments, retail implosion, real unemployment.

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  10. Well, just put the plate of information out there for minions to consume as they desire for their own betterment. If a few laggards can't stomach the scary facts and themed applicability, or get butt hurt by stranger danger comment section writings and end up catching the flaming runny shits from system overload, thats on them.

    On other note ol Remus provided an honorable mention Jim, good job!

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    1. I think that is the best treatment I ever got from 'Ol Remus, bless his heart.

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  11. On a related note, I glanced through the gossip-disguised-as-facts website known as 'wikipedia' for the entry about Richard Fuld, ex-bigshot banker with Lehman Brothers® bankers.

    Apparently, during his career as a banker, he skimmed about a billion (with a 'B') Federal Reserve Promissory Notes into his pocket, some borrowed from investors, the rest, 'borrowed' from 'investors'. And yet, somehow, he managed to bankrupt hisownself during his escapades, all his loans forgiven in A Court Of Law©.

    Are you sure we are on the right side?

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    1. Back in the good old Enron days, the crooks actually went to jail. But we couldn't have that for the housing bubble-or there wouldn't be any bankers left.

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