Friday, May 3, 2019

no biscuit for car 3

Much ado has been made of the Fracking Revolution, whereas if you wrap the flag around you real tight, tap your heels together three times, say “I THINK I can!”, then you will be granted Energy Independence.  Because that is how math works.  You use 20 million barrels of oil a day, produce six, but if your production doubles to 12, well, THAT is energy independence.  Not importing as much, the Fracking Fag Miracle.  America, where Bitches Power is real, Diversity Is Our Strength and LESS Oil Imports equals self-sufficiency.  Actually, we are close, just one economic implosion away.
Prior to oil almost touching $150, we used 20 million barrels of oil a day.  Over the course of the Great Recession, we dipped to about 18 million.  I haven’t seen any up to date figures, but given ethanol use and the global production slow-down, I wonder if we are down to 15 or 16.  Just a bit more unemployment, homelessness and retail closings, hell, we might actually get down to only needing twelve million barrels of oil a day.  There you’d see actual energy independence.  Of course, the economy would have to be so flattened, one wonders how oil would be delivered through the riots.
Just as natural death from old age will save you from needing to commit suicide, energy independence will occur after we would need the oil, since there is no more economic activity needing energy.  Now, call me pessimistic, but as the entire economy swirls down the toilet, wouldn’t that make it a little harder to get gasoline?  I know that you think cheap gasoline is an American birthright.  That is the only reason you reject socialism, since you see the taxes Europeans put on gas.  Drive Long Or Die!
Okay, forget about imported oil.  Forget about Petrodollar Death, as at least there is a chance that danger may ( repeat, MAY ) have already been countered by TPTB.  Perhaps gasoline always will be available, at least the raw commodity price, if not at cheap prices then at somehow affordable prices.  You might actually see a long slow collapse of the Happy Motoring paradigm.  But, like everything else, the government can still screw all that up for you once they force their ham fisted “solutions” onto you.  First up, ALWAYS, much higher taxes.  You can take that to the bank.
Just as the government does not care in the slightest that you cannot afford their property taxes, they could give two wet farts if they charge too much on gasoline.  They need it, so you get to pay it.  As we discovered with cigarette taxes, our Land Of The Free taxes were HIGHER than the Evil Socialist next door ( when they were smuggling cigarettes down into New York ).  The Politically Correct Forces Of Good decided that henceforth and ever more, cigarettes were bad ( as are large sodas, since all coast dwelling Yuppies can afford bottled water from Fiji ).
The government saw dollar signs.  It raised taxes.  A lot.  Less people smoked, so tax revenues dropped, which meant the taxes had to be raised, again.  Now, given the Agitators dislike for poor people causing harm to the environment ( it is encouraged that rich people keep polluting, or at least consuming rare commodities like specialized honey ), can you see the next Big Issue Of The Day being gasoline consumption being demonized?  You know, to Save Da Planet, Yo!  The Beautiful People have their Prius or Volts ( I would say “Tesla’s”, but I think they are all catching fire and dying ).
But Deplorables have big redneck trucks, or old beat up gas guzzlers because that is all they can afford.  The Right Thinkers can pay more per gallon, so Soccer Moms, college professors and Black Welfare Protesters ( there will obviously be subsidized gasoline for Dem Opresseded Peoplez ) can save the environment but not be inconvenienced while doing so.  The working poor get pounded in the ass by Gaia and Al Gore.  But they can always get strip searched or mugged while taking public transportation, so no sympathy there.
Greenies have always been pulled primarily from the ranks of the Marxists.  Protestors against nuclear power were correct in their fears, but the whole strategy was to ONLY disarm the US.  Cutting their teeth on turning their own government into the feminized victim, gun control was the next logical step.  As was Political Correctness.  Since meddling like a village matchmaker is their hobby, they cannot stop themselves from trying to save the world in their image of a biology-free zone.  There is always another cause to rally to.  Today, hot and bothered over the environment, your freedom of movement is the next target.
The Clueless Do-Gooders move in chanting and screaming naked at the sky, imploring Earth Mother to save them from White Racist Males, and the government jumps in and raises taxes.  A lot.  Then gasoline tax revenues fall, so they must raise them again.  Then, toll roads.  Then, drone surveillance to enforce the tolls, followed by random road blocks to check for Emissions Test stickers and functioning Toll Payment GPS devices.  Hollywood will start featuring cars that are battery powered or more efficient, driven only by Blacks or mixed race couples or Butt Pirates.
What I’m trying to convey here is that if we don’t get sudden gasoline shortages and price hikes, we’ll get government intervention to reduce use, as seen with the Green camouflage tax on diesel under Obammy when he changed emission standards.  Either way, even prior to Total Collapse, your ‘Murican right to drive will be compromised.  He who recognizes and changes his lifestyle in anticipation will be better served than one who totally ignores the danger, because “everyone NEEDS to drive nowadays”, and just blindly stays with Business As Usual.  You can pretend we will never run out of oil.  Or you can plan for it.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click here )
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  1. In today's linked book, the author focuses on restrictions via taxes.

    Interesting. In the restrictions vein, I wonder about genetic-designed diseases... and the inevitable genetic-designed cures for those diseases. With enough taxes diverted from 'hookers-and-blow', The Ruling Elites© can finance any amount of research... and researchers are happy to take their money... each player hoping to chortle along at least long enough to croak prior to The End Times™.

    I honestly truly believe in my core this particular planet has too many peak predators localized in one species == humans. Imagine seven billion Great White sharks or seven billion Great White bears. Seven billion Great White tarantula lizards the size of Tokyo with laser-shooting toe-nails and the necessary 'ricochet' sound-effects. I bet all the prey species would real quick get tired of looking over their shoulder. I know I would, and I cis-identify as 'Great White' with lots of Great White privileges required by the inferred status and all it implies.

    In this version of reality, heaping taxes upon taxes upon taxes may buy humans a few more generations. Until we chance on a now-unimagined fuel plus get off this particular planet, our future seems dim.

    So, in all honesty, Bison, should I sell my two shares of Frack Futures Hedge Mutual Fracking Fund? Now, or later? A 'heads-up' == if I 'dump' my shares, they quit sending me the nifty glossy brochures each quarter for me to staple around the office .

    Heck, I was running out of wall space anyway, so I might as well. All's well that end's well, right!

    [today's comment is a humor-infested chuckle-laced analogy, and should not be construed as political advice intended for the extra-gullible among us] [as always, the value-packed investment advice should be followed to the letter; you'll thank me later]

    1. Unfortunately, glossy paper is worthless for reusing as toilet paper. I see no value in them unless they are thick enough to be stacked as insulation. I know you have some Great White North Equipage and FLIR Scope Company stock as well. Same advice applies. :D

    2. Apropos of nothing current, that is to say ‘off topic,’ have you considered how to deal with lice and fleas after the Event? We control these once common pests quite efficiently these days, mostly with chemicals.

      But are you prepared to meet that threat? All the ammo and wheat in the world will not help you when you find the first body louse on your person.

      And have you considered the purpose of a lap dog? Ladies liked them because the fleas preferred them to the Lady herself.

      Then there will be rats and mice, another topic. At least you can shoot rats.

    3. Diatomacious Earth ( spelling? ).
      External also available at Home Depot
      For mice, nothing beats a cat.

    4. We have a citronella plant growing in a pot in our yard. It doesn’t get a lot of attention, yet it does well. It is said to repel mosquitoes, as well as other insects. Supposedly mint, spearmint, etc, repels rodents. I didn’t have much luck with it, nor with mothballs, but ammonia worked really well, and kept the rodents at bay for the most part. Don’t know how to go about producing your own ammonia, but it might be worth looking into.

  2. Okay, that's a good one!
    " So don’t be putting any of those in your mouth "

  3. C'mon Jim, finding 2018 oil stats took me less than 3 minutes. Here are official stats as of 2018. The US consumed 20.8 billion barrels.
    Currently have 8500+ active wells and over 1000 new drill permits.
    I enjoy this site but your truculence about O&G facts really seems to be interfering with your overall message. Add a couple more strings to your violin...please.
    As for your continued assertion about "quality" of oil I'm just gobsmacked. Yes, there is a BTU difference between Venezuelan tar and West Texas Intermediate (benchmark) but tar is routed to other than auto/truck transport fuel usage. Bunker fuel and feedstocks Jeez!
    Also, ROI is undoubtedly! ROI has been declining in technical terms ever since the last major field stopped spouting & req'd installation of pump jacks way way long ago.
    Fields are smaller and sometimes in more difficult places but oil is going to keep following in adequate (not overflowing abundance) for many years.
    As for tie in with FedReserve and money machine inflation, meh! I'm more worried about underperforming public pension & their liabilities and escalating health cost (medicare)

    Not flaming ya brother just adjusting the blinders we all wear.

    1. Keep in mind that official numbers are...quaint. Real inflation-10% a year. Stated, 2% ( if that ). Stated unemployment, one tenth real unemployment. The reason it matters about net energy is that our entire economy was built on high net. What you see falling apart is because of low net. 1930-100 to 1 EROI. 1970 30 to 1. 2010 under 10 to 1. Fracking oil, half that. If anything, I hold back on my panic and discontent over our oil situation. Keep in mind, the info you got was three minutes of work. I've been deep researching this for fifteen years. Not saying I'm smarter, just that I have way more exposure to information I can put together. I do thank you for the rational calm response. It is a pleasure discussing with others rather than yelling.

  4. Time to buy a Mormon Handcart.

    1. Or-

  5. From another site that no longer exists which fits in.

    Anonymous said...
    Something a lot of you may not be aware of - the Mexican govt gets most of it's funds from Pemex - the state oil company - which in turn relies primarily on a giant oil field called Cantarell.

    The thing is see - Cantarell just went into decline a few years ago - dropping production from over 2 MBD in 2004 to 1.5 MBD projected for this year. Decline rates are expected to run about 15 percent each year.

    This means the Mexican govt is going to slowly implode over the next 5 to 10 years. And when you have a 100 million starving Mexicans just south of a whole lot of smilin gringos I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to predict the future.

    Futhermore - 8 of the 10 largest oil fields ever found are now in serious decline.

    Think we'll all play happy and nice as the oil goes away ?

    June 3, 2007 at 9:24 PM

    [Texas Arcane]
    Texas Arcane said...
    I didn't know anything about any of this. That's very interesting information that ties into cascading events caused by resource conflicts and shortages.

    Whenever I hear something like this, my instinctive impression is that when it rains here on Earth, it pours. When society stops innovating and producing solutions to their problems, even for a few months, you can see the huge freakin' tidal wave of causality knocking down all the tenpins in a row.

    The U.S. didn't really do anything about the immigration invasion.

    The U.S. didn't really do anything about the energy crisis.

    The U.S. didn't really do anything about the educational system that was producing citizens who didn't seem to be really capable of doing anything, unlike their parents.

    So now these failure points begin to feed into one another and before you know it you have apocalyptic collapses that actually escalate one another, producing even bigger problems that all in turn go unsolved as well.

    This is why I believe we are not going into a slow decay tailspin like Rome and coasting back into a comfy rural agrarian lifestyle. It's not gonna happen. The problems we see now are going to culminate in a hellish finale that we currently probably cannot even comprehend the magnitude of. Time will tell if I am right or wrong about this but I think itz coming big time, not small 'c' collapse or small 'd' dark age.
    June 4, 2007 at 5:18 AM

    1. Of course, the US did do something about the energy crisis, with fracking. And diverting Turd World corn to ethanol. Mexico transitioned to more self sufficiency in grain, and her oil "only" declined 6% a year. Now she has to import, which shows you how quick -6% screws you. But she just took in more of our factories for the needed trade. Which is why more don't come up here-they have a lot of our jobs. In some ways, a better economy down there. It is just that their safety net is being a peasant, where ours is Section 8 and Food Stamps. And the drug cartels form a bit of a buffer between the population and our border. One wonders how much that factors in on holding down immigration.

    2. Jim,
      Sorry but I just can't drop this bone.
      I appreciate your scepticism regarding O&G stats from Uncle Sam so I thought I would drop this tidbit from API and their press release regarding LNG exports to Europe.
      Just an observation here from oil patch country....there are so many independent O&G guys around all monitoring each other and trading company secrets over an evening of drinking that it is nearly impossible to fake the stats by very much. There are few secrets in the US oil patch. You can doubt US govt stats but you make a big mistake to doubt the accumulated wisdom of the real guys on the ground.
      Second, Mexico has not upped her corn production. It's slipping in face of US NAFTA corn. See attached from Wiki.
      While overall Mexican ag exports are up her corn production is down. They are trading lo-cal export strawberries/winter veggies while her historic domestic foodstuff (corn) continues to sink. Mexican leaders simply stabbed self sufficient farmers in the back. Had little to zero to do with energy. It was money.
      Bill Clinton's promise to Iowa corn growers to open NAFTA full bore back in '88 Dem primary is what got him the Dem nomination. One promise to a small, but significant, voters bloc got him to Presidency.
      I'll stop lest you think me a pest. Peace brother.

      From Wikipedia:
      Until the late 1990s, Mexico was a net exporter of agricultural products, but today it is a net importer, mostly from the United States.[9] With the need to compete with imported grains and less direct support from the government, the agricultural sector entered a crisis.

    3. From the API article:
      "Petroleum inventories increased by 6.4 percent y/y and were 4.7 percent above the 5-year average
      Gasoline demand (9.2 mb/d) in March decreased 2.1 percent year over year
      Strongest March distillate demand since 2007, but growth halved from 2018
      Strong March jet fuel demand, yet growth slowed
      Residual fuel demand decreased"
      Increasing inventories as the lack of demand for fracking fuel. Distillates demand increasing, but growth halved. Yeah, there are no distillates in fracking fuel. It is JUST gasoline. Applies to the jet fuel demand also. As for Mexican ag ( wiki ):
      "Corn is still the most important crop in Mexico, grown on almost sixty percent of its cropland and contributing to just over nine percent of human calorie intake and fourteen percent of protein intake.[3] Central Mexico grows about sixty percent of the country’s corn"
      A lot of imported corn goes to livestock, but I'm not sure how much of that meat get exported. I'm not getting a good enough source. I'd need pre and post production numbers on the Tortilla Revolution event. Also meat production export numbers. Don't worry about "keeping gnawing at the bone". If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, having believed an incorrect source. I'd rather know if I AM wrong, so as to be right in the future.

    4. lots of mining and drilling realism from Steve St Angelo.

    5. vintage numbers as if you could still get them about the US economy. Inflation for stuff you need is at least 8%. Unemployment the way it was measured in 1980 is 21%. Bread lines are indoors at Kroger or Slaveway, so that's nice. "Hey, hey, EBT you know meeee."
      I miss $0.99 premium octane no ethanol fuel that the Caprice could get 27mpg at 80mph+ on. 4 gallons from pdx to Olympia in less than 2 hours (120 miles) was good times.
      Mexican silver mine output is also down significantly. Low price, declining availability of domestic oil due to low reinvestment and cartel theft, mines higraded to stay open leading to early closure on safety basis or they start losing men and machines to mine disasters.
      Mexico is collapsing back to tourism and drugs, because the sun shines and elites love cocaine.