Monday, May 27, 2019

what not to do in 2020 collapse


WHAT NOT TO DO IN 2020 COLLAPSE
As we just discussed, I’m betting that we are already in the next economic collapse.  Not as in, we’ve been in an economic collapse for fifty years.  As in, Big Stuff happens like in 2008.  Just as in 2007 when the collapse started, we might not see huge indicators until next year but it has already started.  Don’t take this to mean you have a year and a half to prep.  I’m just guessing that it won’t be until next year when banks crash and everyone is out of work and etcetera.  I know you don’t want to believe me.
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Last time, mostly due to the oil price spike but picking up steam after that with unemployment exploding, global trade tanked.  Yet, we are already right now at worse volumes of global trade than we were then.  Last time, unemployment numbers grew AFTER the housing bubble crashed.  This time, even discounting my own paranoid unemployment guesstimate, the numbers are at 1929 Great Depression levels, already.  Last time, the housing bubble derivatives bubble was almost a quadrillion.  Now it is almost three times that much.  Depending on your math.  But even “just” twice is scary enough.
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Last time, we had half the national debt.  Last time, we only had a housing bubble.  Now we have the Everything Bubble, and houses are at levels close to those bubble highs now.  Last time, we had weather disasters affecting crops after the crash.  This time, they already started.  Last time we had just started fracking.  This time, most fracking areas are played out.  Last time, companies could borrow to stay in business.  This time, those companies cannot even pay the last loans.  Last time we only had to bail out some banks.  This time, every institution needs bailing out.
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If you aren’t scared, you are an eternal optimist and cannot be cured.  For the rest of you, let’s talk about how you can get ready, your timeline and what NOT to do.  As for a timeline, I cannot time the collapse.  You cannot time the collapse.  Ross Perot cannot time the collapse ( and Warren Buffet is clearly under the thumb of the “R” bankers and is doing stupid crap just to give the illusion of calmness, so we can’t rely on him ).  Assume the collapse is tomorrow.  Seriously.  I could be way off on the obvious indicators waiting until next year.
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What can you do?  In all seriousness, panic early and avoid the rush ( thank you for that one, Greer.  You were a Optimistic Ollie delusional puke, placating the masses with permaculture unicorn gardens, but you got a lot of things right ).  You could be excused for not seeing the severity of the 2008 crash.  You have ZERO excuse this time.  Take the 2008 collapse, add the Great Depression, the millions percent inflation of Zimbabwe, the Cold War nuclear threat, the Black Plague, the New World smallpox 90% die-off, an EMP and perhaps, maybe, you’ll sort of get how bad it is going to get this time.
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Okay, a bit of hyperbole.  But at least economically, we have no experience in this country.  It won’t be Really Bad But I’m Prepared.  It will be worse.  And it is going to be so much worse for one simple reason.  There are paradigms that must be destroyed.  Ultimately, our War Of Northern Puritan New England Blue Blood Banker Whores Subjugation Of The Southern Sovereign States was fought to turn our country into an industrial empire.  You can’t vote that kind of thing in.
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Rather, you had to utterly destroy the agricultural economy that had too much political power.   With them in power, necessary resources were not available for centralization.  At the same token, you can’t peacefully colonize half the globe to continue with free commodities to supply captive consumers with your industrial goods.  We had to destroy all our competitors.  Our allies and our enemies.  England had to be reduced to the economic level of Detroit 2005 so we could rule most of the planet ( we finally got China, but by then we couldn’t control them ).
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Political and economic orders are always carried out as corpses.  They are never peaceful transactions.  Not only do we have a federated country that must be balkanized, we have an empire that must be dissolved.  And we have an Oil Age that must be destroyed to get back to a saner form of human existence.  Which means we need a die-off to accomplish that.  It might not even stop there as we’ll need a Dark Age to replenish the land ( the conservative farming movement is a great idea.  And it is ultimately doomed to failure from its reliance on the Oil/Industrial Age continuing ).
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( The “conservative farming” idea is employing methods that are flexible, and immediately save money to pay for its implementation.  No plowing, with cover crops and rotation.  Some also throw in short durations of intense grazing followed by a year rest.  They are great ideas.  You also still need some machinery and some fertilizers/pesticides.  Although far less than currently.  The big failure with the system is outside its control, the centralized transportation heavy distribution system.  Without tearing up the suburbs and decentralizing farming, it is due to fail.  And we don’t have resources to relocate )
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Not to say the 2019/2020 collapse will be the end game of all that constitutes daily life.  Perhaps it won’t be.  But I’d say that the odds are good that it will be the last economic collapse we see in our current set-up as imperial central bank run industrialized society.  But just in case, of course, you aren’t per se burning bridges in the sense of going to jail if the current régime survives.  You are just opting out economically, not politically.  But keep in mind that all the advice to follow assumes you agree with me that this is the final phase of our current system.
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Just economically.  Social disintegration is a step removed.  This is just the immediate responses and work-arounds for severe economic contraction.  It is a tutorial on what to do and what not to do as the economic collapse commences.  You’ll still see-most likely-full government control, rationing, higher crime rates and all the rest ( the 1970’s revisited ).  We discuss steps to take to soften that blow, to reduce the consequences of staying within this current failing system.  Continued tomorrow.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click here )
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16 comments:

  1. I agree. Hunker down, footer up.

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  2. Well you've certainly got my attention with this into, Lord Bison. Looking forward to the rest of it. Can't shake the feeling that the road is going to get awfully bumpy over the next few years...

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  3. I don't know how,but if Trump gets re-elected, due to his ego he'll do whatever it takes to keep the collapse from happening under his watch.

    2:48

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    1. Why do you assume any one man can hold back the tide?

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    2. The ptb are already spouting out "intervention" code words like they desire a grassy knoll solution to their lack of power and control. Don't be surprised if the most weirdest things (9-11 anybody?) was to occur. Be flexible and fast on the feet if necessary.

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    3. Get Hilary-she's pretty good with assassinations.

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    4. I'm just not going to count him out after all who thought he would even get elected.

      2:48

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    5. No harm in hoping, just don't bet on it. Assume the worst, be happy when it doesn't happen.

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  4. Following and concur. As a Minionite manning an 'lp/op' post on the southern Bison Empire border area of Lost Vegas, the view of things will turn a thinking person's stomach. There is so much gluttony and wanton degradation of self and society systems, it is remarkable things still function. It is only by the efforts of a much smaller percentage of stay behind, hold out, traditional system adherents that it occurs. Like those games of pulling sticks out of stacks, once more folks wise up, check out, and deny the machine it will all topple over like a dead animal. Then the carcass stripping party (instead of strippers on poles) begins in earnest. At least we may be witnesses (and hopefully survivors - winners) to the greatest calamities (plural as in many to occur) to befall mankind, live performances and in color. Stay frosty.

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    1. Right, you can't even say, "get your popcorn and enjoy the show". It will be a far bigger spectacular event than a regular movie, a 4th of July fireworks show or a circus come to town.

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  5. Sweet Jesus ! James.... I'm off doing stuff for a few months (almost a year) and I decide to see what you are up to and lo and behold- here you are still spreading tidings of great Joy! Glorious golden rays of wisdom emanating from your anal orifice like the true Oracle of Elko we have all come to know and love as our beloved Bison...My preps are all set. Generator and gas for the generator, got to be able to microwave the pizza! Cases of bourbon. Silver coins to pay for whores! Yep, that pretty much takes care of everything. Oh, of course, I am armed to the teeth like any good paranoid schizophrenic fanatic. Glad to see you are still gifting the masses with your analysis of the situation. So basically what you are saying is: We are fucked! Your old friend, the Mohave Rat :-)

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    1. Yes, we are humped. But in a GOOD way. Glad to see you back, brother!

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  6. Mohave Rat, Welcome back to the Bison Empire. Don't forget the extra medicated powder so as to not endure a crotch rash during collapse.

    Jim, a brief Kunstler article appeared in Zero Hedge, 5/27. Recommend readers peruse and skim through some of the more appropriate commentary. Reinforcing intelligence reports are helpful for strategic planning.

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  7. Oh, Lord Bison....
    First, these depression level unemployment numbers you speak of...for real? Why do you think 100k+ migrants are coming up from CenAm? It ain't for welfare. Please don't spread that fairytale. They are coming because of JOB openings. Everywhere I look HELP WANTED signs at wharehouses, donut shops, electrical contractors, dental hygenists, roofers, tire shops. All along Coastal South. Can't comment on Yankeeland or Califruittopia though.
    Those migrants don't come on a "lark", they're coming because their cousin or uncle said "come up, plenty of jobs".
    Yes, some get a smidgen of "social services" but only because American welfare depts are tossing money left and right. The illegals are pulling in plenty of cash from WORKING (not endorsing them coming, just looking at facts) The welfare bureacrats are just expanding their empires (bigger budgets/promotions) by qualifying more people as "needy".

    As for home prices and derivatives...First, lending qualifications vastly tightened up. No more liar loans or 105% mortgage which triggered 2008. Second, we have a huge demographic boom called millennials born starting 1980 now reaching age of homeownership. Bigger demographic than boomers! Third, private mortgage industry basically doesn't exist..90% of mortgages now through FedGov agencies. If they (HUD, VA,FHA) get "in trouble" there is no credit crunch like last time....Congress just extends their guarantees.....but that's a different fish kettle.
    C'mon man, engage your cognitive gears (clutch, shift, gas...right?). Think!

    "Conservative" farming???? You mean conservation tillage, yes?
    Conservation tillage/farming been around for going on 40 years. Original idea was to get away from "clean tillage" (plowing) done with moldboard plow. If you leave "residue" on surface from prior crop, rather than completely inverting w/ moldboard, you reduce erosion from raindrops hiting bare ground. The whole notion of stopping centuries old destructive moldboarding was impetus for GMO (glyphosate resistance) seed and Roundup. Leaving surface residue requires new tillage/planting techniques.That "technology package" allows you to seed into prior cropland by basically cutting a narrow slot, drop seed, and press in with springloaded wheels. Spray with Roundup after sprouting and soy/corn survives but weeds die. No fuel wasting repetitive trips across field to cultivate out weeds. Save $$$
    If we were still moldboarding there would be islands the size of a couple Manhattans in Gulf due to eroision in Midwest. Thank God for reduced till!
    Back in old days about 1/4 to 1/3 of Midwest land was kept in permananet pasture and hay for the mules/horses. That permanent plant cover reduced a lot of erosion. But post WWII with horses sent to dog food factories that land was pasture was put to plow....and it eroded BADLY. Hence, new techniques needed to reduce tillage. Also, SecAg Butz meant it when he said plow from fence to fence in 1970....farmers ripped out fences in great swathes of farm country cause fences get in way of turning your J Deere 500 HP behemoth tractor when you get the headland. So now you can drive vast distance across "flyover" land and not see a fence....come to think of it you wont see the formerly predictable small herd of cattle (20-50) either. They used to be kept around just to eat (scavenge) the post harvest corn stalks over the winter (now..no fence, no cows).
    Rotational or managed grazing...ahem, a LOT more involved than "intense grazing and then leave for a year"...but that's a 1000 words essay in itself.

    Keep it coming Jim....I have an old manure shovel I keep around to cleanup the cow lot, but with the volume here I might have to go buy a skidsteer with large size bucket 😃. Sale at CAT dealer I think!

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    1. Yes, I misnamed "conservation" farming. Drawn primarily from the book "Growing A Revolution". I loved his "Dirt" book, this one was more of a chore to plow through. Get it? Plow.
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      Home prices and derivatives are two separate issues this time. Houses are not affordable. Derivatives just make everything a huge risk. But since far more folks are renting now than buying, there isn't the market for derivatives in housing. It won't be a strict repeat of 2008. Any growth in housing from demographics is pushing up against the affordability issue. The derivatives market will explode, the greedy bankers will see to that. It won't be caused by a housing bubble-how comforting as we sit in the economic rubble.
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      Immigration can be driven by jobs, and it is. I don't see any unemployed Mexicans around here, just White Trash. But those Mexicans can live on very little, such as packing ten to a house. If they get sick, which is rare because of their youth, they can then get free healthcare. They can live on $10k a year, still sending money home. They have youth and cheapness going for them.
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      The unemployment numbers over at Shadow Stats is I believe 23%. Those are going by government numbers ( your favorite, being the trusting, glittery sunshiney unicorn type ) but using the old methodology. I figure 33% going by the labor participation rate compared to the eligible workers numbers.

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