Saturday, May 25, 2019

iran and derivatives


IRAN AND DERIVATIVES
If you remember back a ways, while all the hoopla over the Norks had everyone secreting black ink in fear, just like a squid, I stated that the fear was overblown and nothing to pay any mind to.  The Norks don’t have oil, but they do have nukes, and the odds of them ever being attacked by us were nearly zero.  The odds of them attacking for no reason were about equal.  It was all a bunch of fear porn.  How do you know when an author ( to use too generous of a term ) is merely a Fear Porn star? 
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When they focus on singular events rather than system wide issues.  Let me give you a few examples.  Dow drops two thousand points-that’s a collapse!  Less than 30% of families are Christian-that’s a collapse!  Over half the population has only a month’s wages in savings-that’s a collapse!  Bible says the end is nigh-that’s a collapse!  See a pattern here?  Just because the Norks hate us and have nukes means very little.  Just because the US wants the entire world as its bitch means very little.  Without the means, motive means dingus.
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Does the US hate the Persians?  Of course we do.  They won’t be a docile colony nor do they care to cum guzzle at the Dollar Dingus.  Just because a dildo is red, white and blue doesn’t mean we should be shoving it up places the sun doesn’t shine.  I’m all for tribute from the globe if it benefits me, but surely we learned our lesson from Vietnam?  We started screwing Iran from the second world war ( with the commies ) on.  We are lucky they aren’t MORE belligerent.  But they ARE smarter than we are and don’t poke the bear.
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Our only excuse for wanting to attack them is that Israel wants us to clean up their mess while we still have the means to do so, before we abandon the Heebs to their own devices.  And we all know Forrest Trump loves the Israelis.  Remember how Obammy got in trouble when he was bowing to all those Turd World dictators, as if they were equal?  That is Trump, but he isn’t silly enough to get caught on camera.  So, we know for sure the US wants to attack Iran.  And yet, CAN we?  I’m not saying strategically.  I’m wondering about economically.
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I believe it was Pepe Escobar who stated we cannot attack Iran because of the $2.5 QUADRILLION in derivatives endangered by such an action.  First, Good Gravy!  I remember the arguments ten years ago as to whether we were even close to ONE QUADRILLION ( always spelled in caps, Dr. Evil style ), and now it is almost three times that amount!  You do remember that the derivatives market is what crashed the economy in 2008, do you not?  And second, do you have any idea what the price of oil would be if the Straights Of Hormuz was shut down?
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The price of gasoline goes up 30% on possible ethanol shortages, which is ten percent of gasoline.  What if HALF the globes oil stopped flowing?  Yes, Saudi Arabia has pumping stations and pipelines to bypass that chock point.  Guess what?  Those are just as vulnerable to missiles as cargo ships are.  It doesn’t matter how many batteries are destroyed by the US Navy ( assuming they aren’t busy crashing into merchant ships or holding sensitivity training in the fire control area ), it just takes ONE oil tanker scuttling to cancel all the others ones insurance.
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You know how they say that if you owe the bank a million dollars they own you but if you owe the bank a hundred million, you own them?  Iran is in that position of owning Hormuz by virtue of a target rich environment.  Yet, since we cannot know more than 1% of what is really going on, given the Potomac Pravda industry, could there be other factors we cannot know about?  Sure, granted.  Those are called Black Swans.  Perhaps the evil of NOT attacking is worse than actually doing so.  I have no idea, nor does any other scribbler.
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The bankers could get so desperate they forget that the last Depression was not averted by their genius money printing but by Fracking.  It always come down to energy, be it body fuel ( calories ) or industrial fuel ( oil ).  All our problems today were caused by switching our economy from US oil to Saudi oil in the early 70’s.  Back then, some pretty smart guys knew how the economy was kept out of a black hole.  Do they still understand that?  I’m sure they do, as evidenced by Fracking.  The question, though, is IF knowing matters.
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My guess is no, because there are no more rabbits to pull out of the hat.  There are no more Saves once fracking stops ( stops GROWING.  Not stops completely. Just, stops growing ).  Could we have a plan to attack Iran, knowing full well the world economy instantly craps the bed?  Again, anything is possible.  It could be along the lines of “attacking the Soviets before they attack us, even though it opens a second front” the Nazi’s were forced into ( in theory ).  Just because the west is controlled by globalists doesn’t mean their script cannot be altered.
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All in all, however, I would probably say that as many scenarios as I could spin FOR an Iran attack ( unaffordable oil is a great way to Die-Off excess population, without the bother of bio-weapons or nuclear fallout, for instance ), if all things are equal and we don’t get total idiots doing totally stupid crap, if Business As Usual is desired I see no reason we would want to attack Iran.  It simply doesn’t pass the smell test of common sense.  Syrian and Iraqi and Libyan oil going off market never imperiled the majority of production as targeting Iran would.
( .Y. )
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12 comments:

  1. Good macro overview Jim, better than any Zero Hedge or economic rag's cut and paste pulp articles. Just spiffballing some added thoughts.
    The oil production numbers must also include all of the consumer, business and industrial uses of plastics and petroleum based products beyond happy motoring fuel. It is so persuavivly used today any upsets of availability or raw material costs would upset that other half of the petroleum economic arena. ("Plastics young man, plastics") movie quoting here.
    The globalization and connectivity of the world economy and their nation governments on leashes like toy dogs may force a little bit of cooperation amongst the ideological, political, military, nationalist foes to occur. There may be a lot of behind the scenes manuevering, and the news cycle outputs are indeed misinformation to gaslight the citizenry of either or all of affected nation states. The final script is written and finalized. The only details to be worked out is who will be that second tier Beta - Nation bitch that has to be content with the sloppy seconds from the sodomization of their own people, and then have to take their turn in the "take a train ride game" by the crazy uncle superpower / globalist betters and then just grin and bear it as well. Just illustrating realities.

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    1. If I'm not mistaken, there is a lot of artificial fertilizer out of Qatar. So, not just plastics.

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  2. A Long History:

    During the early 1970s, we worked out of Shiraz air field in south Iran with Air Taxi, owned by a couple brothers-in-law of Shah Rezi.

    In a working environment plus personal engagements in many of their homes, I experienced the Iranian people as warm and friendly. At no time did I feel threatened by any Iranian for any reason.

    I experienced Iranians as thoughtful and adaptable. Interested in their heritage, certainly, but also very interested in developing global trading partnerships with economic equals.

    2019, the posturing of American and other zionist empires is disheartening to me. The Iranian people are not their government agents; a bombing invasion by zionist forces faced by American troopers will be incredibly one-sided. No Iranian will benefit.

    Although I suspect the invasion was writ in stone decades ago, let's do everything in our power to dissuade our 'leaders' from destroying the Fertile Crescent, this vital part of our ancestral heritage.

    2019, I still feel no threat from any Iranian.

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    1. The elite feel a threat from Persia. Hopefully, they have no means to counter it. I'm sure Empire has already overextended and is incapable of much of anything. Let's hope so.

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  3. I recall way back in 8th grade, that we had a new dude from Iran attending class. This was right about the same time that those US embassy workers were taken hostage over there, just prior to Reagan coming to power. Boy, that dude sure had to tolerate a lot of shit, when the other boys decided to play Iranian elimination patrol with him during recess :D One day I struck up a conversation with him. To my surprise “Mehdi” was quite human, and one heck of a nice dude.

    I’ve long since stopped believing anything that the American media prints about that “hotbed of terror Iran”, or any of the other “terrorists” around the globe. They’re simply not to be trusted. And that pole smoker Bolton has never met a war that he hasn’t liked.

    Once again, I’m sure that the usual suspects and motives are at play here. Oil, and the US’s anal spelunking butt buddy little brother Israel.

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    1. I always mistrusted gov, but took an embarrassingly long time mistrusting the MSM. I knew some had a Left bias, I just didn't realize they all have a gov bias.

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  4. I knew a US soldier that was Iranian named Daoud (Dow-ood) in the army. Real nice guy, broken english, very smart, was in a medical MOS. I have no beef with most people on this planet outside the US. The people I am most concerned with are US gov't employees. The worst terrorist organization the world has ever known.

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    1. Well, don't be TOO hard on American Empire. At least we don't crucify folks as an example. And seriously, you need a medic and the guy barely speaks english? Don't we have enough foreigners in with the Blacks. They don't speak english either.

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  5. The way I see it from a country well away from the US and the Middle East is that the US can't not attack Iran.
    The petrodollar is the only reason the US is still afloat (pretend money for everyone else's resources), and it is slowly being whittled away by the Russkis and the Chinese and all their pals.
    So, either the US risk an attack for the possible victory and control over ME oil to offset fracking decline, or they go quietly into the night, collapse and die. Which is it going to be?
    Add into that the Israeli hatred of Iran, the Jewish control over the US Govt - I'm pretty sure they'll stage something to get into Iran.

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    1. I don't disagree with you. My question is, do we have a choice, now, as to whether to go gently into the night? In Syria, we are are standing around with our dingus in our hand. In Venezuela, we didn't even get to unzip. In Iran, no matter how juicy a target, lies our immediate economic collapse. Attacking might just be a bridge too far.

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  6. On the other hand, I supervised about 60 classes of Freshman Comp at UUtah, SLC, and the Iranian students were a problem, always demanding this and that, mostly refusing to accept a female TA, but demanding. This was in the late '70s.

    Big guys with bushy hair.

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    1. Perhaps they were proto-Revolutionary Guard.

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