Thursday, May 2, 2019

no biscuit for car 2


NO BISCUIT FOR CAR 2
Owning a car is normal right now.  If you don’t own a car you are looked upon with suspicion ( IF you are the older generation.  The newer one, not owning a car has become more normal as everyone has given up shelter and transportation for college.  Dumbasses ).  But having a car was only normal since the end of World War II ( just as college for the masses was only normal since then-but beating out car ownership for obsolescence real fast ).  It is about to get Not Normal.  Already headed there, in fact.
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I have started investigating alternate TV streaming services.  Netflix is so broke, as soon as the stock market takes a big squishy I wonder if the company will survive.  Sony Crackle and Tobi are two pretty good ones that give you free shows with very minimal commercials.  Another great one is Vudu.  The point being, I’m starting to catch some advertising that I had avoided the last few years.  Cars are being offered at lease prices about like I seem to recall ten years ago.  But auto’s are up 50%.  Companies are leasing below price.  How long can that last?
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If you are wondering, your tax dollars bailing out Detroit did exactly Hump All.  A few executives probably got some extra hookers and blow, for which they thank you.  But overall the industry seems to be at least three or four times worse than a decade ago.  As the industry shrinks along with demand, you are going to find your options shrinking with it.  Prices will continue to rise and quality shrink.  For the simple reason that like most industries, auto’s borrowed a butt ton of money the last Great Recession and they can’t pay it back with LESS sales.
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All those little colleges cutting back, merging or closing?  Decreasing demand ( from their own greed sodomizing their monopoly ).  Retail is the same.  Housing is the same.  Auto’s are the same.  Taking decreasing quality into account, you are probably paying three times for a car than prior to the last economic contraction.  But unemployment is soaring along with bankruptcies ( as if the true rate of 30% wasn’t high enough to begin with ).  The true cost of owning an auto will go up with the squeeze on purchasing power. 
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One of the reasons used cars are going for so much money is that the older ones lasted much longer.  You are paying only $5k less than a new one, the older model having 40k miles on it, because new cars are seeing transmissions fail much quicker, as well as other failures.  Some cars are barely squeezing out 100k miles.  If the old ones lasted 150k before the transmission went, you are getting a car capable of twice the life before any major repair is necessary.  Your cost per mile is on track to go up, exponentially.  All I’m saying is, the paradigm is ending.
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Clearly, car ownership is headed towards that of a college degree.  Only the well off can afford them.  No longer will it be an item for the masses.  Eventually, you might have to say good-bye to your car.  And yes, I get it.  You are old, you have several cars that are not, and you’ll die before Mass Motoring does, if the fuel supply lasts.  I’m just identifying the trend.  How much it affects you is an open question.  As hours and pay decline, and auto costs increase, the trend is less car ownership.  Just as the trend is gas prices spiking.
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I do NOT bring this up because of the current gas prices.  These are nothing compared to the 1970’s.  You car pukes are so spoiled, a twenty percent increase in gas shoves your waded panties clear up to your colon.  California gas is already $4 in some markets, so you know they will be on their way to $5 easy.  Whatever you were paying in 2008/9, get ready for that again.  Just saying, as a public service announcement.  Long term, you’ll look back fondly on these prices.  I can guarantee you a jelly filled donut.
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Long-er term, no gas.  Obviously.  But then we get into the whole “when do you transition to a post-oil lifestyle, and what modern practice do you still treat yourself with” question.  I completely gave up on the auto six or so years ago, and that was even then a luxury.  Now, I won’t even accept that use.  I’m over cars, they are far too much money, worry and stress.  But let us say that you are a stubborn bastard and hold out to the end.  What do you have to look forward to?  As I said yesterday, cars will be weaponized against you.
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They always have been, but it was just the ocean to your fish.  It was so normal you didn’t notice.  I’m not even talking about the corralling of the workers into cities.  That predates the auto by a few centuries.  But what about the amount of control that auto started having over you, beginning no later than the early 70’s with OPEC?  Your life started revolving around the car and the price of its fuel.  It started controlling your household budget.  Really, it became the equivalent of another mortgage payment.  But that is just economic control.
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That was paying the mafia don his cut.  Soon, as a strategic necessity, long distance travel is going to be controlled.  All fine and dandy, as you don’t go on vacations anymore, but what about getting to your junk land or BOL.  Will you be allowed to move?  Or will it require a Gasoline Rationing Board’s approval?  Will food be controlled, as another type of fuel rationing?  Will owning a car, if you live X miles within a distribution center, be considered a luxury?  Will you be penalized if you continue to own it?
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I’ll wager, given the above, in that circumstance your car will be worth close to zero, and Dog Forbid you still owe money on it.  Sure, you’ll be given a free monthly bus pass, but public transportation will be full of dangers from criminals, both private and public ( like drunk driving roadblocks today, random shake-downs ).  You do NOT want to be reliant on public transportation.  Nor do you want your private auto to suddenly be a worthless investment.  Are you sure you don’t want to opt out NOW, while you still have control?  Think this is all far fetched?
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How else do we cope with a diminishing fuel supply?  Continued tomorrow.
( .Y. )
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26 comments:

  1. Yeah, but you can not be a remus looking back at old timey photos of shop prices from eighty years ago and bemoan whoa is me I am a victim, "everything is so much more expensive than what it used to be!" Personal auto use and ownership are the parallel of owning your "own" horse or a buckboard carriage. You cannot (as easily or have open possibilities) to rise your ass up a notch economically or by a personal well being benefit in such a much more advanced and faster society and systems as is the case, regardless of everything else. Being a walking or bicycling foot soldier may be noble for environmentalism or a ted kazynski purpose but it is not ideal or practical. (for the vast, vast majority) The personal auto is marketing
    And finance schticked for sales via freedom, independance, comforts, etc. But it also a very utilitarian proletariat tool to be used by piss ant minions to get by in a life system they were born into. Until there is (not speculative key stroking by bloggers, who yes own, or must use auto transport for things to be get done) an asteroid strike level of "forced changes" than thats just the way it is. Do it all on the cheap of course, keep frame of reference options open for a "supposed possible upset change", but focus back towards your own micro concerns and leave the macro worried Nancy concerns for professors and think tanks to spout in exchange for grant studies money or article fluff click baiting.

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  2. It isn't the inflation, it is the wages. Rising prices matter not, but how much you can afford do. Also, riddle me this, Bat Dude. How do you make the change to not needing an auto, when you no longer have the means to do so? I'm not saying, Bad Minion, no biscuit if you don't give up your car. I understand 99% if not 100% of minions literally do need their car. I'm saying, get out of that dependence now, while you can. Because once you need to, you won't be able to. At least not without a large dose of luck. And the last time I checked, I'm still Baby Jesus' favorite, so I'll get all that. Not you.

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  3. I've seldom ever had anyone else work on any of our vehicles.
    Always we've owned stuff that I knew how to repair. Now days she has a 2000 Toyota mini truck and I've got the same only a 92. Both paid for. With perhaps a hundred thousand miles left in each before any major mechanical issues might show.
    Considering I only drive 2 to 3000 miles a year mine should take me out to pasture ha ha.
    No more motorcycles for me lol , too chicken now...

    Not having a bugout vehicle here in Flauduh I think would be a foolish mistake. Don't wanna be having to thumb it if a cat five be a coming. Anything less we just hunker for. But not a five...

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    1. If anyone could be excused for owning a car...

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    2. No excuses,no different than living in the city,you need to move to get away from a bad location😊

      I also believe ur correct pertaining to auto ownership,
      I have a decent paying job and my car is still a major expense,cannot afford to not have insurance unless u want to be bubba's buddy in jail. I do believe cars for the rich only is far enough off it won't effect me(age 58)but it's definitely coming.

      2:48

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    3. Good, for a second there I thought I was the only one seeing the trend. I know you all want me to think I'm crazy, but I won't do it! :)

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  4. Speaking of motorcycles as an alternative, I just looked that Evel Knieval dude up. Here’s a list of his injuries:


    As a result of wiping out on his motorcycle following a jump, he was hit hard enough in the crotch to propel him 15 feet into the air (ponder that one for a while :D )

    Incident 2: Severely broke his arm and several ribs.

    Incident 3: Suffered a serious concussion.

    Incident 4: Broke his left wrist, right knee, and two more ribs.

    Incident 5: Suffered a crushed pelvis and femur, fractures to his hip, wrist, and both ankles, and a concussion that kept him in the hospital for several days.

    Incident 6: Broke his right leg and foot.

    Incident 7: Broke his hip again.

    Incident 8: Broke his collarbone, suffered a compound fracture of his right arm, and broke both legs.

    Incident 9: Reportedly suffered a broken back and a concussion after getting thrown off and run over by his motorcycle, a Harley-Davidson.

    Incident 9: Broke both of his arms jumping a tank full of live sharks (Trivia: Later that year on the television show Happy Days, motorcycle-riding character Fonzie performed a similar trick, albeit on water-skis, later inspiring the creation of the phrase "jump the shark." )

    And guess what he didn’t die from? A motorcycle accident (Irony :D )

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evel_Knievel

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    1. I remember "jump the shark". I don't remember Evel inspiring that episode. Good reminder, thanks.

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    2. More trivia: I didn’t know this until recently, as I had always referred to him as “Evil” Knieval. But the reason that he chose the “Evel” spelling, was because he did not want to be associated with the outlaw biker gangs, such as the hells angels. I suppose it’s safe to say that the dude had testicles the size of cantaloupe (Well, he probably didn’t anymore after he power slammed his nuts into the handle bars of his motorcycle, after that failed jump attempt, but you probably get the gist of what I’m saying :D )

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    3. I'm surprised he could walk with that set of balls. I could see being a dumb ass and jumping the first time-but it takes real balls to keep coming back for more after that.

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  5. I am thinking Jesus may love a few more, as equally, or more for his reasons, not your notions. A screed about Yellowstone grumbling and everyone should move, NOW! DAMN IT! or a Michael Snyder article or All News Pipeline article that is a scared cat type up is not constructive. Until "IF" it is proven, (that right there) true and happening. You are using your own sad sack scenarios and conception based experiences to mulligan stew a straight path diatribe that is practically unfeasable right now, and not believable by the commoners when there is short sheet amounts of tangible evidence, or in the near short life span future that folks know (and not believable without hard convincing evidence) in the now that people must live in, in between article posts from "bloggers" (johnny what do you want be when older: "a blogger, Mrs. Smith! Ya, that will be a a good prospect indeed) my trucks ×2, are not a dependance it is a tool for the here and now that is the current reality. When the asteroid hits, or EMP, or whatever arrives then it will become a "reality" in front of my face and gee, I guess I shall adjust accordingly =Then. But until then, stay frosty.......

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    1. I would argue that by your criteria, it hardly seems any of us need to prepare. Look, why do you store food? Because the US has experienced starvation before. Not on a large scale, if one discounts Sherman's March. But historically, starvation occurs. Just because the US never had an energy disruption on a life threatening scale doesn't mean anything, when if has throughout history, always. Aren't we supposed to be preparing for crap that hasn't happened yet? If we keep arguing about timing, you could argue all will be well enough in your lifetime. Should we begin to discuss Black Swans?

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    2. Why should anyone deprive himself of a useful tool; for example, a pickup truck?

      If things change, I change; but hauling 1,000 pounds of feed twenty miles by pedal power ... just for practice??

      Get serious. Do I have plans for the beasts if I can't haul feed? Of course.

      Do I need to practice hitting myself on the head with a hammer? Don't think so. Been there, done that; been shot, stabbed, broken, and concussed.

      And hauled hundred pound cases of ammo without mechanical help.

      I'll keep using my truck as long as possible, then I'll initiate Plan B.

      Your point again?

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    3. You deprive yourself the use of a tool if the tool is not going to be available. Will a semi-auto be great during the die-off. Perhaps. But you won't be able to use it with its ammunition appetite, shortly thereafter. So you figure out how to do without it now. My recommending you stay away from cars is the same as avoiding semi's. That is my point. I assume collapse could happen tomorrow, and I assume few folks have the excess money needed for the Yuppie Scum Survivalist lifestyle. Those are my core assumptions, which color my writing. My approach might not be the best, or the ultimately proven one, but there it is.

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    4. I’m not the dude above, but I posted yesterday on the impracticality of walking or biking in rural areas. In my case, I live 7 miles from town. While I’m not in terrible shape, I’m not in biking 14 miles round trip to town shape, and I’d imagine that most people are not, except for those Lance Armstrong types out there (And even he had “a little help from his friends” :D ). If you had plenty of time to kill, and were not on a schedule, it’s doable, but then we’re back to the impracticality of it all.

      I think that the most realistic approach for most people here Jim, is the good ol, tried and true compromise. Have a bike, and have plenty of parts to keep it going. For shorter jaunts, or when you have extra time on your hands, use the bike. Perhaps get an electric motor for the bike pre-collapse, and for the longer trips, but then you still have the pedal option post collapse. That was one the better selling points for the old 70’s mopeds. You could pedal one if you had to (though as I recall, they weren’t that easy to pedal).

      Personally, I’d probably get the E-bike in the 1st link below, since I already have a pedal bike. 18 Mph, and 15.5 mile range, makes it a lot more practical for the distances that I’m dealing with. But I still ride my pedal bike, to stay somewhat in shape. And yes, you can get a hybrid as well (Both pedal and electric).

      https://www.amazon.com/SwagCycle-Folding-Electric-Enabled-Charge/dp/B07B8VMV5C/ref=pd_sbs_468_10?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=B07B8VMV5C&pd_rd_r=361c4037-6d46-11e9-9381-ffdfe42e5ee6&pd_rd_w=Osso4&pd_rd_wg=SwSzk&pf_rd_p=588939de-d3f8-42f1-a3d8-d556eae5797d&pf_rd_r=7FA0R6M7GGNJMWY9XWQ1&refRID=7FA0R6M7GGNJMWY9XWQ1

      This one is kind of expensive ($700) but it has a 50 mile range, and 20mph speed.

      https://www.amazon.com/RASSIN%C3%89-Electric-Long-Range-Foldable-Optional/dp/B07FYSFT1K/ref=pd_sbs_468_28?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=B07FYSFT1K&pd_rd_r=361c4037-6d46-11e9-9381-ffdfe42e5ee6&pd_rd_w=Osso4&pd_rd_wg=SwSzk&pf_rd_p=588939de-d3f8-42f1-a3d8-d556eae5797d&pf_rd_r=7FA0R6M7GGNJMWY9XWQ1&psc=1&refRID=7FA0R6M7GGNJMWY9XWQ1

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    5. Well said.

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    6. 3:40-thank you. I try not to get upset about those questioning. First, if you get that way, it is all just Yes Men and I learn nothing from any mistakes. 2nd, I am the one who failed to convey my thinking properly, and so it was MY failure as a writer.
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      7:05-I would beware those tiny wheeled bikes. The roads will be neglected and you should probably think about going with a conventional size cheap replacement wheel and tire. That is why I'd lean towards a 26 inch bike tire with e-motor attached. They are $200, so you just need a regular bike plus a battery. If need be, you can use motorcycle batteries, rather than the fancy expensive ones they push nowadays. And, much easier to pedal without the motor.
      Like this:
      https://amzn.to/2GZ73Ev

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    7. I checked out that link Jim. That looks like an affordable way to break into the electric bike gig. Reviews seem to be mixed, but I was surprised to see a top speed of 30mph, as that’s not half bad. It must be due to the larger tire size, providing an overall higher gear ratio.

      I still kinda like that tiny wheeled deal for some reason; maybe due to the compactness, and the ability to fold them when not in use. To be honest, I’d probably not get either one. I think that if it ever came down to not being able to afford a car, I’d just say f _ _k it and put my life on the roulette table of motorcycle ownership. A petroleum based form of transportation is simply to effective when compared to anything else.

      I guess I’m just a bastard that way :D

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    8. Fine! Just promise me you won't buy a FLIR. :)

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    9. If someone produced an electric motorcycle, with say, a top speed of a 100mph (Yes, I know that you would never want to go that fast on a motorcycle, but you need the extra speed for passing, going on the freeway, getting away from crazies, etc) and a 500 mile range, I would actually seriously consider one Jim. Of course an electric car would be safer, but it’s unlikely that I would ever be able to afford one, even if they came down significantly in price. Even for the electric motorcycle, it would have to cost no more than say, a couple of grand, and that would be a stretch for me, financially speaking. But it’s probably still within the realm of possible for me, and for most folks out there. But I haven’t seen anything like that so far. I’d think that with today’s technology, we’d already have such motorcycles, but apparently not.

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    10. I think e-motorcycles are the same as e-semi trucks. All battery tanks are too heavy for the vehicle, to get any serious range.

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  6. Transmissions . . .

    I miss manual transmissions. I miss reliable automatic transmissions.

    I also miss being able to call transmissions "trannys" . . .

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    1. I haven't been to a car dealer for twenty-five years. Can you even find stick shift any more? Beavis, he said "trannies"!

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    2. Roo freakin'funny!

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  7. People sure seem grumpy about today’s post. There was some Shakspeare line about protesting too much. A bit defensive about our precious cars,, are we?

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    1. The last time I had this kind of reaction I was questioning the validity of AR's, FLIR's and freeze dried foods. Perhaps I should be sponsored by Mountain House.

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