Monday, October 15, 2018

interesting rates 1 of 2


INTERESTING RATES
Back when I was far more interested in economics, 70’s to 90’s ( yes, part of my junior nerdness was geeking out on politics and economics, not just D&D ), essentially you were reading about forces from the Great Depression as if Keynesian policy was still battling with Austrian theory.  It was more philosophical than practical.  And everything I ran across in my reading also contained zero practical discussion on the new reality of the financial sector taking over the economy, to make matters even worse.  That is why I stopped studying the field.  It was chasing windmills.
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As such, I’m a bit out of practice on matters economic.  The essentials are easy enough.  Since Reagan, the markets are rigged in the favor of the banks.  Any time one talks of investors moving the markets by their actions, you would do well to assume that the muffled indecipherable noises are simply that voice emanating from ones anal orifice.  And at about that same time, derivatives became the tool that the bankers use for control.  A derivative is the same as a futures contract, a bet on the outcome of prices to be.  Derivatives are just different in that they have no oversight.
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If you are a banker and want to control the economy of the world empire, and hence also controlling the government that is in theory charged with regulating your sector, you make sure that they cannot thwart your profit taking.  You don’t want them to tell you that you cannot have too many bets on too few assets as securities.  So derivatives are beyond the control of the governments that the bankers essentially own ( he who controls the treasury… ).  That isn’t a surprise.  That has been the case for centuries.
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And please don’t go off on a tangent about evil Jews controlling the world because, you know, Rothschild’s.  They happened to be Jews, who were first greedy asswhores.  They didn’t turn into central bankers just because of their religion.  And if I’m not mistaken the Dutch pioneered central bank funded empire, prior to the Bank Of England.  Anyway, Jews As One World Government is too much of a distraction and not very helpful.  Just take away that since the first surpluses allowing the reintroduction of empires, there have been central banks running the show for profit. 
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What is new is the scope and scale of the created credit and fiat currency because of one thing.  Not computers, which is just a management tool for creating those derivatives.  No, it is oil.  Since wealth went from slaves and grains and precious metals to the much more compact store of wealth petroleum, the economy has been far removed from classic economics that are still to this day taught and studied.  Yeah, you should have known I was going to go there, once again blaming everything on oil or its lack thereof.  You’d think you’d have my pattern down pat by now.
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But seriously, wealth is backed by surplus.  Gold is merely a universal trade chit unable to be counterfeited or diluted ( which is why it is universal ), but it in itself is worthless.  The fact it can always be used to buy surplus energy is what makes it valuable.  To create wealth without inflation you need some kind of surplus energy, even if it isn’t gold.  It can be gold from a colony, or it can be food from a colony ( grain from Canada to England, or sugar from the Caribbean ), or far more recently it can be a universal energy form that can create food or anything else.
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If you simply create paper currency, it fast becomes useless.  If you create paper backed by oil, you are just creating more money that matches the extra products now being made by that oil.  In effect, while there will always be an inflation rate which is the bankers vig, you aren’t creating the kind of currency collapsing inflation one needs to worry about.  It is merely a small rent on money, almost a benign inflation all things considered, big picture.  Yet, the fact that oil has stopped growing in supply is where nearly all the economic problems stem from today.
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Remember your simple lesson from the Peak Prosperity folks?  Interest can only be paid by growing the money supply.  Oil underpins our money creation.  Peak Net Energy was 2005 globally.  Yes, thank you Fracking Oil And Gas for saving our asses.  Without it we would have seen our oil supply alone decrease almost 30% ( I’m not sure how much of the natural gas supply fracking supplies but I’d wager even more.  And gas is our electrical generation ) which I’m sure is Economic Collapse territory.
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But fracking oil isn’t energy growth.  It is energy collapsing net rather than volume.  Which really means the supply is shrinking except propaganda wise.  Which means the economy is contracting.  And derivatives which are a large part of the control and profit of the bankers have had to make up for the shrinkage.  It is wealth illusion.  It is just kicking the can down the road, just as fracking oil has done.  Since the global oil net energy supply has started to contract, the evil twins of fracking and derivatives have been our savior.
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Insofar as keeping the rotted edifice from collapsing too quick.  It has allowed you a longer period of preparation.  And that is all good and fine.  I merely worry that this grace period is quickly ending.  As I said, it is easy to see the basics.  Without real growth backed by energy extraction, the economy shrinks.  So the bankers needed to finance the fracking industry at all costs despite losing money even at $100 a barrel.  And they had to stretch out the amount of leverage they used in their derivatives bets.  That was what caused the housing bubble collapse, that 1 to 200 leveraging. 
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But now, that leveraging, those assets to bets, are even larger than they were ten years ago ( and so is the energy deficit ).  JP Morgan is at times leveraging up to a thousand times in their manipulation of the silver market.  And the problem with leverage is that when your bet goes bad, you need to cover the losses.  If you are leveraged 1 to 100, a loss of 2% bankrupts you.  1 to 300 and a one half percent loss bankrupts you.  I’ll continue tomorrow, eventually getting around to interest rate hikes.
( .Y. )
( today's related link https://amzn.to/2RAKR8h )
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note: for you lucky bastards that subscribe to my newsletter, here is an update on the sling ammunition.  A reader commented about stones as described being unsuitable.  True, so I did a bit of research.  Ancient dudes at first used water smoothed stones, but as far back as 7,000BC ( because we are some smart bastards when it comes to killing ) there were baked clay projectiles ( or carved stones ).  At times, slingers were even more efficient than archers in certain aspects, so this wasn’t just shepherds chasing off wolves or whatever.  It was a military specialty.  Also, an ovoid shape ( an egg ) is superior in accuracy to a ball.  Just Stone Age primitive ammo for reference.
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note: free book.  Alien invasion https://amzn.to/2Ch4HjM .  
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40 comments:

  1. Huh? Didn’t know that there was such an animal out there? 9mm certainly isn’t the most potent round available, but it somewhat makes up for this by being so plentiful, and also using the same round as the pistol that many already own. There are probably worse choices.

    https://www.sportsmansguide.com/product/index/ruger-pc-carbine-semi-automatic-9mm-1612-threaded-heavy-barrel-171-rounds?a=2180359&j=69093&j=69093&sfmc_sub=4217695&sfmc_sub=4217695&l=344_HTML&l=344_HTML&u=2728956&u=2728956&mid=7292911&mid=7292911&jb=306&jb=306&utm_source=internal&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2018.10.15_842M1&ecid=email-2018.10.15_842M1&email_AB_version=NA

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    1. All are agog over it since it is a Rugar. I spit in their general direction. You should be able to get the pistol AND carbine for the same price going back to the original company that made the carbine. Can't recall right now. It seems to have been around long enough to be regarded as adequate. Rugar still hasn't proven theirs.

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    2. First off, it's RUGER not RUGAR.

      Second,why the heartburn over Ruger products? I've had nothing but good experiences with them over the last few decades.

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    3. Pardon the spelling. You want spelling issues, more people than not see my last name as daNkin. Go figure. I have nothing against the brand, except they think their crap doesn't stink and charge accordingly. I would buy any tennis shoe that had a good rep, but Nike would charge me double that. Same factory, same performance. That is Ruger. Sure, some of their guns are worth the premium. Okay. But not everything is, just because your name is on it.

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    4. Dankin? Really? How hard it is to screw up "Dakin"? Easy enough, apparently, for today's intellectually-challenged population. George Carlin nailed it - "Consider how dumb the average person is. Now consider that half of the people you meet are dumber than that."

      Point taken about Ruger pricing, thanks! I bought mine quite a while ago when they were priced less than the other name brands and my budget was much tighter than it is today. The whole reason they went to investment casting was to reduce cost and that made their products the best I could afford at the time. Sounds like they made a name for themselves and capitalized on it to make up for their earlier thin margins, probably after the founder passed away.

      Thanks again for the feedback and reasoning, it makes perfect sense.

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    5. I think George Carlin and I share a similar trait. We both drone on endlessly. But it is worth extracting the nuggets :)

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    6. The only handguns that my father ever owned, were Ruger single actions (He watched too many Clint Eastwood westerns, and had some kind of western fantasy going on). I personally do not care for Ruger single actions, but not because they’re not good guns, but because compared to the rounder lines of the Colt, or Colt clones, they’re ugly guns. But they are very strong, and high quality guns, or at least they used to be.

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    7. I'm not sure a western fantasy is any worse than today's Sandbox Ninja close quarters AR spraying Defender Of God fantasy. Slayer of heathen savage either way.

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    8. I took a Ruger single action ,357 with me to alaska in 1980 to run beaver trap lines in case of bear attack. I also had a Remington Wingmaster 12ga slung across my back. I had a lot of experience with that gun, put thousands of rounds through it. The idea was, if the wolf or bear charged, let it get close enough that I could fan all 6 into it's head. I was 25, ex-army, and could whip the whole world's ass. Now that I'm old? I'd require a sheen gun and some pineapples and even with that I don't think I'd do it.

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    9. Now that we are getting to the age the village young would send us out into a winter storm to free up our stockpiled resources, all this prepping seems more habit or lack of an alternative than practical :)

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    10. Your comment reminded me of those god awful ninja movies, and even the standard martial arts movies, that were all the rage in the 1980’s. What a load of crap they were! The wop’s make a mean car, and some decent guns, but they should have left it that, because those spaghetti westerns were just awful!

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    11. The Ruger .357 convertible is a versatile gun. You have a choice of .357/.38 special with the one cylinder, and you can switch cylinders to fire the 9mm from the same gun.

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    12. 9:09-wow! Clint's spaghetti westerns were the bomb diggity. And there were others. "I'm going to get you, sucker", "Once upon a time in the west". Let us not throw out the baby, Leoni, with the bathwater, Django.
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      9:15-isn't that a rather expensive gun, like into decent AR price ranges? Seems easier and cheaper to just stick with 357 ( thicker case wall ) and underload it? You have the powder and lead of the 9mm, and the long case life reloading. I'm not sure about reusing powder, however. Still, at .15 to .25 each brass, it seems you could buy a lot of reloading components for the price difference and salvage then becomes a non-issue. Reloading revolver ammo and bolt ammo is so simple anyone can do it, and increases your options.

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    13. Yeah, I have no doubt that the Ruger .357 convertible is a pricey piece new, but I’d buy used. Yes, I know that you have some sort of rule about used guns, but here’s the thing. Ruger single actions are built like tanks, so unless Lou Ferrigno owned it (And according to family guy, he’s pretty dumb :D ) you will be okay. I think that you also mentioned something one time to the effect of being worried about the barrel of a used gun being shot out? Well, I’m here to tell you that while it’s certainly possible, the only guns that I have heard of in which this has happened in a relatively short period of ownership, were the hyper-velocity .22 centerfires (i.e. the .220 Swift was a notorious barrel eater, and as a result, you rarely ever see them anymore).

      No offense meant on the wop westerns :D But to me, it’s pretty clear that the Italian film makers have never heard a real gunshot before, after hearing those ridiculous sounding, high pitched pings, that sound like a combination of Richard Simmons and Madonna, shrieking in ecstasy at the site of Ron Jeremy disrobing :D

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    14. My only problem with used is that the price is usually too close to new. Why am I paying a premium? I want my discount. New gals go for a premium over used ones.

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  2. My eyes glaze over slightly trying to understand economics. I am a thing oriented person,not data oriented. But by the end of your article I was raising the question in my mind about the prime lending rates being raised.
    Then I noticed you said you would cover that tomorrow so I suspect we are thinking along the same line. Something I look forward to trying to decipher tomorrow.

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    1. Let me know if Great Minds Were Thinking Alike, tomorrow. I have an equal issue understanding economics, because all the underlying premises are faulty. It is like looking at a algebra equation. What does it even mean? And why? It is my contention that people that couldn't get laid invented calculus and other such math, to punish the rest of us.

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  3. Well I understood about -99% of that.
    I can run my own finances, as I stick mainly to keeping outflow less than inflow, so anyone that goes beyond that quickly loses me.

    I have in hand right now 2 brand new shiny 10/22's fresh out of the boxes stretched out on the work bench. It's raining today so they won't get a work out just yet so I am using this time to familiarize myself with everything about them, total take-downs, proper cleanings and reassembly and some dry firing.

    Tell you what, nothing like opening the box on a brand new hawgleg. Did you know these things are just a hair over 5 lbs? Holy kow! You can sling this thing across your back and climb trees all day long, with 200rds of mags in your pockets. Each gun came with 2 10rd mags but I'll be filling the gun larder with more pronto. Couple thumb loop ballistic slings, etc. Dawgeez! Go getcha one. Get TWO! Hurry, cause I might go get some more!

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    1. You want rimfire mobility? The Cricket. The one for kids. Carry a beefy revolver for close in people or wild animals. Harass and flee, and THAT is lighter infantry guerrilla war. The lack of semi and mags gets you WAY down in ammo needs, too. Not pissing on your parade. For what you want it to do, the 10/22 is king. I'm just explaining why I myself won't be getting one.

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    2. Yep. Cricket & Rascal are super-light .22 rimfires. Not too expensive, either.

      pdxr13

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    3. Half the weight. Almost half the price.
      https://www.cabelas.com/product/Crickett-Single-Shot-Rimfire-Rifles/706414.uts

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    4. Have fired one of those Crickets? I have. The neighbor got one for his 8 yo son a couple years ago. Way too short. The length of the buttstock to the trigger. Irritatingly short. Effects accuracy too.

      Anyway, down at the bottom of that page it has a Savage .22 semi for, get this, $129. Whoa. $0 more than the kids cricket. Also had the Marlin semi .22 for $159. Man, they're practically givin em away. There really is no excuse for any sane person to not be armed these days. And these days may be shorter than you think.

      Savage:
      https://www.cabelas.com/catalog/product.jsp?productId=2287051&type=product&WT.z_btnclk=YMAL-2287051&WT.z_pg_ref=prd706414

      Marlin:
      https://www.cabelas.com/catalog/product.jsp?productId=706407&type=product&WT.z_btnclk=YMAL-706407&WT.z_pg_ref=prd706414

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    5. I agree the Cricket sucks in all but price and weight. If price is everything, you can get a Wally $99 single shot that is a full length rifle. I was concerned with total system weight, which is why I didn't consider the semi. I was envisioning more of a complete minimalist approach.

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    6. "...complete minimalist approach..."

      I heard oval rocks are more accurate than round one.

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    7. I think my minimalism bottoms out at rimfire. The slingshot is great for supplimental roles and I would hate it as my primary. However, sarcasm noted and chuckled over :)

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  4. I have experience with the Savage semi-auto mentioned. Worst design ever for that class of firearm in my opinion. The 10/22 can be run dirty, and still be reliable. The Savage quickly develops feeding problems. The ONLY way to clean the gun to restore reliability is to remove the barrel to remove the bolt. The owners manual offers no advice in how to do this. The barrel is not easily removed like the 10/22 (two bolts). It is press-fit. So you drive the barrel out from the open action by force, which is where you discover the barrel steel is soft and deforms easily. Clean the gun, try to fix what you damaged with a file and a punch, drive the barrel back into the action with a wooden block and hammer, making sure the sights remain aligned vertically, and hope that it actually feeds reliably for the next two magazines. You can't just squirt oil around the bolt, it actually has to be cleaned to be reliable. Maybe I was just using an individually bad unit, but horrible design in my opinion. It's best use would probably be to buy new, oil it but don't shoot it, keep it until an emergency where you fire until it develops feeding problems, then throw it away. This is not sarcasm.

    The Cricket and Henry Mini-Bolt have similar design problems that are solved by the Savage Rascal. They have lousy triggers and add an extra step to firing an already slow design (manually cocking the rear of the bolt). The extreme short length of pull and diminutive dimensions are not an issue that is unworkable. Put the upper rear butt/comb up in your cheek so you don't have to crane your neck over. Pull towards your cheek with your trigger hand, while pushing away with your support hand, creating tension within the stock to stabilize it. It can accurately be fired this way.

    I didn't read your writings on the sling, but this is a highly-recommended resource. The cost is much higher than what I paid for it since it's out of print now...
    https://www.amazon.com/Sling-Sport-Survival-Cliff-Savage/dp/158160565X/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1539651034&sr=1-2&keywords=the+sling

    Peace out

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    1. Save your money, even if it was half price. According to researching the history of slingers, the weapon is harder and takes longer to master than the bow. I was actually covering Bulk Buying latex rubber tubing to keep the Wrist Rocket running. The sling projectiles became the subject. The Cricket slow fire would only be a plus at the time ammo is running out. You take your time firing, even more so than a bolt. Although I'm leery the plastic part would last that long. And this is a way out possibility of a bottleneck population event and you were staying mobile due to glaciers or mass plant die-offs such as a volcanic winter. Then you'd wonder if the constant wear and tear on the little gun would be too much.

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    2. Well that's good to know, before purchase.
      If you gotta use tools just to break it down for a normal cleaning, that's more work than needed. Sounds like a design/manufacturing defect. I'm surprised they sell any at all.

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    3. Wasn't there a car you had to pull the engine to change the oil filter? Way back in the day of carbs.

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    4. You had to pull the motor on Chevy Monzas to change plugs; maybe that's what you're thinking of.

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    5. Enough decades changes memory, granted. I could have sworn it was the filter but could be off.

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  5. Why doesn't anyone like the Marlin model 60? Cheap and reliable! Will feed any cheap ammo and doesn't need cleaning. Just spray with a little WD 40 in it sometimes.

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    1. For myself, I've just never heard many raving about it, I guess.

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    2. Accessories are limited. The ruger 10 22 can be accessorized and barrel changed, take bananna magazines, etc. It is like hot rodding a chevy versus others, just easier.

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    3. If you've been around here for awhile you've heard me mention it. I've had the silver one for about 15 years and never a problem. Well, there was a slight problem with the loading time, what with the tube. But I solved that earlier this year by getting 2 of those autoloaders, can't remember the name right now, where you dump 17 down the pipe in 1 fell swoop. Works great. The gadget holds 6 tubes worth.

      Mine also has the black poly stock and a silver Simmons 4x scope and the thumb hole ballistic nylon sling. Nice.

      Light, maybe 5lbs or so, accurate out to 100 yds or more, cheap to fire, easy to keep clean, very little recoil, and noise is minimal. What I like about the 60 over the 10/22 is the width of the fore stock. The 60 is narrower and fits my hand better. With use I'll get used to my brand new 10/22's but I'm just sayin. No rain today and I'm considering taking them 10/22's to the range. I got winter chores to do so I'm not sure. It's a 30 min drive to the range over at Camp Atterbury.

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    4. There is a lot to be said for guns that CANNOT be accessorized. You are forced to learn to work minimally. Not saying you want every gun like that, but we do tend to take things too far, also.

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  6. Jeez. Girls. Get with the program. Stay on the path with mainline known and proven armaments. Don't dabble with bait guns for the cheap. Just like an airsoft demo model laying aside the roadway. A booby trap or sniper perch awaits the curious george. Oh by the way, interest rates are gonna eat the ass out of the economy, but not in a friendly way, YO !

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    1. It will be interesting to see how an economy on nearly twenty years of mostly low interest will function. I know, poorly, I'm just curious how many business models fail.

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    2. Don't get me started on failing business models today. I swear I don't understand it. Every swingin dingus business out there is going out of it's way to drive customers off. It's nobody is driving the ships and the pilot houses are vacant. Maybe all the CEO's are aware this sucker is going down and they are just concentrating on getting as much hooker and blow as possible.

      Every website now has that nefarious pop-up wanting your email address. I am so fed up with that now that when I see it I just close the site down and move on. No sale.

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    3. I can't understand all these sites that do the pop up questions myself. It isn't JUST e-mail but all kinds of other info. Once, with the e-mail, I can understand. They don't want you to forget them. But all that other crap, it takes five minutes to download, AND you can't tell if you like it enough to subscribe, because you haven't been able to read it yet! SRS Rocco does it right. The pop-up to subscribe is as you leave.

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