Monday, October 1, 2018

personal prep plan 4


PERSONAL PREP PLAN 4
I took a little break there from this series.  Once my enthusiasm drops off I need to look elsewhere for titillation and inspiration.  If you don’t care to go back a bit and reread it ( I love going back a re-reading my stuff, because, you know, brilliance, but I like to wait several months to a year ), I basically gave you all the back story on why I focused on economic collapse over civilization collapse preparedness.  And then I left off saying in future segments I’d explain my bet on decreasing population and a several year decline in the race to collapse ( verses the overnight collapse too many see happening ).
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Look, every single swinging cheese dingus out there that wants to continue wearing their super secret decoder ring marking them as Loyal Minions of the Bison Brigade need to have already prepared yesterday, in case the collapse is tomorrow.  That is simple enough, borrowing the old Cold War thermonuclear exchange adage of Better One Year Early Than One Minute Late.  Because, duh, the economic issues that will unhinge your finances happen overnight, before you know it.  You all like to act smart and think you can wargame everything needed to beat the crowd, but you are hereby officially noted you are delusional. 
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You will wake up with no Internet, and the ATM out of money on a bank holiday, getting to work to find a pink slip.  The collapse doesn’t happen overnight insofar as burning building and riots, famine and plague, but it does occur overnight as far as your ability to further prepare.  Which is why you are prepared now, not later.  Preps in place, not savings meant to one day be preps, and not grandiose plans little more than masturbatory fantasies opiating you into believing you can live irresponsibly without consequences.  This incidentally covers Yellowstone blowing or an asteroid hitting or a Evil Chinese EMP attack or solar flare. 
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But probabilities are what you prep for, not just possibilities.  And the likeliest probability is economic collapse.  Jesus Weeps, people, it isn’t as if you haven’t had fifty years warning here.  Most folks who know Math And Stuff are warning that with extrapolated data, the fracking oil fields aren’t going to last all that much longer.  And you know where we stand on the PetroDollar issue.  Derivatives are TWICE as dangerous ( if not more ) as they were in 2008, and derivatives are what caused the last financial crash that brought us this very economic depression we are living through now. 
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The probabilities of this economic depression turning into an economic collapse which ushers in civilization collapse ( or at least, civil anarchy such as Bosnia, to go along with out culture collapse ) are pretty much 100%, baring alien overlord green lizards offering room temperature fusion secrets.  Surplus resources are economic growth.  Contracting resources are what collapse civilizations.  All of the above to say, prep yesterday, because you have to, but don’t count on overnight collapse to get you out of debt or into scavenging mode.
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I’m counting on economic collapse, prepping wise.  And I think the probabilities strongly suggest that history is going to repeat itself in my location.  Elko has a long history of boom and bust, even before the towns founding ( and WAY before its official incorporation ).  It has never gone Ghost Town, surprisingly.  Unlike most other mining towns in the state, Elko is like the energizer bunny.  AS much as I hate government and corruption and rich bitches pulling strings, I have to hand it to the local elite for always being able to switch directions and adapt and overcome.
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Not that there is another rabbit to pull out of the hat, because carbon fuels allowed the West to be settled and now that carbon fuels are running out the West will be one of the second or third places triaged ( the first will be an overseas military ).  But here is my point.  Boom might have been normal, even if it would be later, but bust is just as normal.  This time the bust won’t come from decreased feasibility of wild range cattle or decreasing rail activity but from the mines going bust.  When the price of gold decreased decades ago, the town went into a super slump.  Which was odd because the percentage of profit was about the same even then compared to now, and costs have escalated even further now.  Yet the town survives.
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Survives as in Thrives.  No where near what it was doing a few years ago.  So a much decreased Thriving.  But no where near a Bust.  My best guess arrived at with vastly decreased amounts of information is, your favorite villain and mine, derivatives.  Both major mining companies here, the globally unprofitable one and the one getting decent profits, are playing the derivatives game, making bets on future extraction and probably also spot prices.  They are making more money betting on gold than mining gold ( and the other incidentals such as silver and copper, if applicable to said mines ). 
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This is in no way part of any insightfulness on my part.  I pick up a nugget or two of information here and there and assume they are running their business like every other publicly traded company out there and usually you are correct when you assume two plus two equals four.  The probabilities are high that the mining sector collapses due to finances prior to there being the bigger issue of net return on investment and energy crashing ( there will always be gold powder in very diffuse forms out there.  Yet just in the last decade the energy needed to extract the same amount has doubled ).
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Once the local economy has crashed, the population won’t just dribble away, it will collapse.  Such has been the historical norm.  One industry brings a massive surplus which draws folks in like maggots on meat, the Get Rich Quick mentality a duplicate of the original states Gold Fever.  Then the surplus craters and all the opportunists flee the light of day like the cockroaches they are.  The same happened down in Las Vegas with the real estate bubble.  Because, you know, nothing makes more sense than to spent 60% of your income for thirty years on a dwelling smack dab in the middle of a growing drought.
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Vegas was more of a perpetual growth area until recently, however.  Elko has been Booming And Busting for 150 years.  And once 75% of the scumbags vacate the immediate area ( please be more!  95% is a-okay with me ), it won’t be such a problem surviving the collapse.  It will be far from perfect, because even the smallest town of 74 people is still a threat to you after Rwanda Meets Bosnia.  That is 73 people that didn’t prep and want your food.  Not even divine intervention and super studly semi-automatics with FLIR scopes can save you there.  Only Hermitage can save you!  My bet, though, is that far less people means that once the power goes out too often or the gas pipeline shuts down, the rest of the population, without the cushion of carbon fuel heat for the winters here, flees far sooner than the civilization collapses. 
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I’ll continue next time.
( .Y. )
( today's related link https://amzn.to/2zsyaFG )
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note: Septembers earning report.  $60 donations.  Kindle book sales $8.  Amazon commission $238.  $306 total.  Gawd, I love you bastards!
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note: this video covering all the mechanical issues of the M16 in Vietnam taught me a lot more detail than I'd ever read over the years.  The only issue I'd have was he glossed over any greed at Colt.  But be that as it may, this is a really informative watch.  After this, I'd guess that my experiences with the rifle in the service was most likely due to a lemon with inadequate or failed bore chrome rather than any design flaw.  The more you know...click here
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note:free book.  Zombies https://amzn.to/2xRuHPz .  
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27 comments:

  1. Yeah, using army m16's as the hallmark for ideas about the ar15 is failed from jump. My m16 never gave me any memorable problems but think, they givem to teenagers that mostly don't want to be there cause they were lied to by the recruiters, don't know how to shoot in the first place, and then the guns are thrown around on field exercises, and they only get zero'd once a year, and the army thinks of all of it as a loss leader any how (fodder) so why waste good money? I mean, colonels and generals deserve hookers and blow too, right?

    (hookers and blow,
    hookers and blow,
    gotta git me some
    hookers and blow) lol

    Today's ar15 for the most part is a highly engineered machine and with careful research and parts purchasing barely even resembles the m16 of oldt. Mine is now a year old and has several thousand rounds through it and though it hasn't been through any Graf's or Reforgers it isn't babied and still looks newish, cept where the paint has been worn off from the shell deflector. The old m16s didn't have built-in deflectors so the lefty's either had to have one installed or dodge hot empties once a year.

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    1. "Yeah, using army m16's as the hallmark for ideas about the ar15 is failed from jump"
      But as you can relate, Basic is a time of high stress and sleep deprivation. Certain things tend to be engraved deep into your brain after that. Like, I never called in sick at work, ever. Or, I couldn't get it out of my head how easy it was for my rifle to jam. And you are correct, those hookers with blow don't give any uniformed personnel discounts. :)

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    2. "...engraved deep into your brain..."

      Like that time I got trapped in a closing gasthaus down in Munich at 2am with nobody but 2 19yo frauleins to keep me from getting scared and lonely.....I'll carry those emotional scars to my grave. hookers n blow, hookers n blow.....

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    3. Now that you know the power of the grasp of hookers and blow, you understand what motivates those in power to murder and cheat.

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  2. You won't enjoy a ghost town to yourself. As a county seat government center all those employees, families, contractors, and support businesses will remain. All pensioners or those with non economy required income will mostly stay as they really have nowhere else to go or no plans to. Only a raging inferno will push them out. Expect only a 25-35% outflow of population. Consider the conflict areas of ugoslavia, syria, etc. Destroyed and encircled areas still had hundreds to thousands remaining. Plan for living within that next generation civil society. Going to the hills for a duration is a good plan during a diaper dump by the economy, but a reintegration will have to be made if you survive and need or want to come home.

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    1. I hear what you are saying, but I also have a secret weapon in my arsenal of expectations. The idiots are tied in with the California retirement system!!! What pensions? Hahaha! Stupid bastards. I'm happy with a 33-50% population flee. Then, when our ONE natural gas line is severed in a guerrilla attack and the trucks don't deliver any more wood pellets, or the grid running those stoves become unreliable, I expect most of the remaining to THEN leave. Not prior.

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    2. Guerrillas always attack power/water/gas/bridges/rails/fuel-trucks/comm to prove to the people that the current regime is powerless to stop it or fix it.

      Follow the BTU's.

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    3. But...it shouldn't be about energy! Unicorns have magical energy. I think from Skittles. Magic means energy doesn't matter!

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    4. The poster @ 3:28 reminded me of the incident linked below. 15 million worth of damage, after they took out 17 transformers. A few well executed events of this nature could cause some serious civil unrest. I sure wish at times that I was less dependent on the grid. And actually, I would rather be completely dependent of the grid.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack

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    5. Have you thought of going off grid where you are? For instance, solar and 12v conversion. Rain catchment or at least water tanks in the garage. Sawdust composting. Insulate and mass wood heater. You might have to cammo some of your efforts, perhaps still paying the electric hook up fee without drawing watts, etc. Even just using water for gardening, say. There were a slew of books in the 70's on suburb homesteading, but it is all pretty simple.

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    6. I had actually planned on just such an experiment this summer. The plan was to pitch my tent, and pretty much live in it all summer long. It was challenging because there was no where that was both flat and that had shade, so it didn’t end up happening. I already have my dual, portable, 50 watt panels, and a deep cycle marine battery. My only power needs would have been my little Acer laptop, my tablet, some LED lights, and I had planned on getting one of those mini DC refrigerators, that work off of thermoelectric operation (as opposed to freon).

      I’m the Elko minion, and I currently live in an RV on my mother’s property near small town CA. I have often thought about going off grid while still living here, but it gets up to a 100 degrees in this hellhole every day in the summer, so Earth sheltered would be necessary if you really wanted to go off grid. But my mother is not cool about such things as my building earth sheltered dwellings, so it will have to wait until I get to Elko. If I knew that this current place would be mine some day, I would push the issue. But my parents (father passed away a few years back) were terrible with their finances, and there’s no way that my brother and I can keep this place with what they owe on it.

      I’d really like to get out to Elko very soon, but I managed to score this pesky (and cushy) under the table job, that I’m finding hard to walk away from :D
      I really should explore the Amazon Mturk thing again, since it enables you to work online. But typing skills would be a must, so I’d need to learn that.

      The most power conserving DC refrigerator that I was able to find:

      https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01G7IL3BS/?coliid=IW2MLBEMHSYPO&colid=2P9H5MHEI5D99&psc=0&ref_=lv_ov_lig_dp_it

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    7. I couldn't find anything on power draw.

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    8. I must have researched it previously Jim, but right in the description it mentions that it is capable of being powered on as little as 2 amps. Now this would be in the Eco-Mode, which is when it is being powered by a USB port. Now I took this to mean that you would really want to use the Eco-Mode in the evening, when you no longer have the power of the sun, but in this mode, it is probably just enough to keep what you have in it barely cool (I made an assumption here). So using basic Ohms law 2A x 12V = 24 watts. Most of these refrigerators were rated at around 40 watts, as I recall. This model probably draws that as well in standard operating mode. If you have the battery storage to run something bigger, than by all means you should do so. I was going with the bare minimum, as far as solar systems go, when I researched this particular unit. From the Amazon listing:

      “12V (DC) adapter. Capable of being powered with a 2A power bank with included USB cord for even more portability! Not recommended for computer use as it may not generate enough power (Note when using USB power the Cooler/Warmer will only operate in ECO mode)”

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    9. Sorry, my brain must have glazed over, as it said exactly that and I read it. Here is my problem. You get a four foot long chest freezer turned into a fridge with a $60 doohickey. Call it $180 for the fridge. A 100 watt panel and a marine batt for $200 more. $440 total. The thing runs on 150-200 watts A DAY. If you buy a used freezer for $40, $300 total. You have a metric butt ton more space, at a colder temp. Here is the doohickey:
      https://amzn.to/2P5VU7I
      ( looks like it came down in price since I flagged it )

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    10. Yes, I would say that your option is much better. I was thinking from the standpoint of a minimal, low key set up. I didn’t want to invest in more than one battery at a time, since they never seem to last all that long, and are kind of expensive if you buy the better units. A single battery might just run your converted freezer all night long, but if you had other items that you were powering, it might run it down too far by the morning, and then you have to hope for a sunny day, the following day.

      I was actually thinking that for refrigeration that I would rely more on the old time ice house principle. In other words, I’d have a early model refrigerator (An ice box, but they often listed them as refrigerators in the old timey catalogs, such as Sears). The refrigerator would be stored in my subterranean storage facility. The old ice houses managed to keep the ice cut from ponds and rivers, all summer long. In my case, I’d probably purchase the big ice blocks from the store. Though you could conceivably make your own forms, wait for a cold Elko night, and form your own.

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    11. Right, I assume the fridge would have its own dedicated battery. If that is an issue, a highly recommend Presto brand pressure canner is $75. Here is the book I got the idea of making an ice block in a few hours with a 90watt salvaged fridge rig:
      https://amzn.to/2IzkZp8
      Kind of a pricey book, not sure if the Web has the info.

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    12. Oh yeah, I remember that book. $20, yeah, that’s a little pricey. At this point in time the canning or the ice house seems to be more practical for me, long term. I’m thinking in terms of all forms electricity generation failing at some point, and ideally being able to fall back on 19th century techniques, should it come down to that (I’m 54, so it probably won’t).

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    13. Wouldn't the sawdust for insulating the ice blocks be a problem here? Or do you see another way to insulate? And for the material a ice house takes, how many fridge motors could you stock ( and panels )? Not trying to piss on your parade or sell my version. I don't think any of it is sustainable after the collapse. Just like our bodies are not sustainable :) Yeah, I'm only one year behind you, and I'm only counting on a short burst of death and destruction until my end ( but of course planning on longer, in case I get unlucky ).

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    14. I’m sure that you could stock many motors, panels, and batteries, for the cost of an ice house. It’s probably just me, and I’m probably my own worst enemy. But my mind always goes to the extreme case scenario of what would happen if I suddenly found myself without such options, and I was forced to make due (Hence my fascination with flintlocks, primitive archery, primitive housing, etc).

      I don’t have it completely figured out Jim, but I would think that you might be able to substitute straw or grass for sawdust. Also, while they did use sawdust to cover the ice, I think that in some cases the houses were not always subterranean. I was kind of hoping that in a dugout, that you could get away without having to use the sawdust. I’m thinking that in a worst case scenario that one of those big blocks of ice would last a very long time, as long as it didn’t have a heat load on it (again, subterranean). You might find yourself having to compromise by having ice a good portion through the warmer months, and then canning, salting, or drying other perishables, until the winter comes, and then you should have it easy (Excluding hot regions such as Arizona and the like).

      This is one of those areas in which it would help to know a pioneer :D
      But the best that we have is their manuscripts, and various other documentation that has been passed down through the ages.

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    15. I think the main thing is to substitute the freezer with canning/drying/salting ( salt might be an issue here ), etc., and substitute the fridge with a root cellar. A fridge really seems to be more of a modern convenience, even an ice box.

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    16. People get used to walk-in refrigerators pretty fast. They are really useful, but you need "real" power to fight a hot day with idiot employee/volunteers who leave the door open while browsing. "real" power is 50A 220v 1ph + with the happy fun place running your HVAC and freezer-fridge with 440v3ph.
      In the realm of off-grid refer with an ice tray, using DC or an inverter, I would not use a system other than a rocker-pump model. They can get cold, and don't use too much current.
      Peltier Junction coolers often can not cool-warm more than 25 degrees from external. Milk/meat/beer really ought to be between +35F and +38F to be safe for a week.
      If you have grid power, or a bunch of solar and a good inverter, a top-loading freezer converted to a refrigerator is pretty great (and about a quarter of the cost of a good 4"+ insulated 12/24v DC freezer new).
      The middle-ground is probably about 4 cubic feet of refer with a side-door from an older RV or sailboat that someone paid more than a grand for a decade ago, and you pay about a hundred for. Dometic, Norcold, and others, but the good kind all use rocker pumps, not ammonia.

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  3. "The collapse doesn’t happen overnight insofar as burning building and riots, famine and plague, but it does occur overnight as far as your ability to further prepare. Which is why you are prepared now, not later. Preps in place, not savings meant to one day be preps,"

    Another Home Run quote that I've added to my Book of Prep Philosophy

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    1. Learn it, love it, live it...or something like that I'm stealing from somewhere else :)

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    2. This is a key difference between prepping for natural disasters, then building towards more extreme scenarios. With the natural disaster path people are planning how to maintain middle class comfort. The Bison approach is planning that sooner or later you’ll be poor and have to survive. Deal with it. Poverty is the future. Now why don’t you have a million followers?

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    3. I'm THHHHIIIIIiiiiiisssss close to breaking out towards a million followers :) The day right after fat bitches don't mind hearing that indeed, their dress does make their ass look Super Sized.

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    4. FB's are future skinny-girl survivors. Current skinny girls will have mostly been buried, unless they have a few million calories of wheat in buckets already.

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    5. Unless they are so fat they violate Rule #1 of the zombie apocalypse. Plus, they better be the right kind of fat ( proportionate ) or they will be discarded as breeding stock.

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