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Sunday, July 8, 2018

sixty day die-off 3 of 3


SIXTY DAY DIE OFF 3
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There are not all that many preppers.  Any claim to the contrary is wishful thinking or erroneous logic.  The majority of Americans cannot afford a $400 emergency ( as you’ve all most likely read recently ), and you think they are buying FLIR scopes?  People probably didn’t stop prepping because Trump was elected, they probably stopped spending money they didn’t have as mandatory health insurance tripled.  To claim 1% or 3% of the population preps is just more hubris filled denial needing to believe things aren’t as bad as I think they are.  Even if you counted every camper who bought a single pouch of a single freeze dried meal as a prepper, I don’t believe you’d arrive at a very big number. 
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I still think the subscription numbers for American Survival Guide ( back in the day, last century mostly ) or the blog readers for Rawles ( back when he was worth reading ) are a better indicator.  We are fiercely tribal and the Internet separating and isolating us means we become even more tribal in compensation and hence I think we desperately cling to the virtue signal of our tribe, the membership publication.  What this means, the actual far lower numbers of preppers, is that very, very few people stockpile food.  The vast majority of us are JIT grocery shoppers.  When half our meals are eaten out, you don’t need that many groceries on hand.
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If my contention is correct, I think assuming everyone has at most two weeks of food on hand is a very generous assumption indeed and probably grossly optimistic.  Aren’t there a number of Sam’s Clubs shutting down?  Even LESS bulk food is being purchased, and that just might well be indicative of  those dropping Latino fertility rates we just mentioned.  Less Mexican babies, smaller families, less need to buy lots of groceries.  White birth rates are of course far less, and I don’t think all that many Latinos buy from big lot stores ( actually the closures probably have more to do with them stocking Yuppie rather than Po Boy foods ), they shop in the neighborhood Mom And Pops because they are tribally loyal and not slaves to the consumption dollar like we are, but that just reinforces the trend in JIT shopping, doesn’t it?
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So, two weeks stockpile is wildly generous.  And because of JIT, the very smallest percentage of panic stockpilers is going to strip shelves in minutes to at most hours.  Think how those stores fare in a hurricane landfall or winter weather event scare, and eliminate replacement trucks.  But let’s just assume two weeks stockpiles for most.  The last meal might be mustard and ketchup on the last Saltine cracker, but let’s assume somehow everyone has two weeks food.  That is BEST case.  Even if a limited number of trucks still get through, even if the restaurants have any shelf stable items ( they are few, and mostly condiments.  The majority are freezer foods ) you can steal, even if the power stays on because most households are also mostly freezer dependent for food storage, two weeks is probably the max, given how three days is the real inventory in our JIT system.
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Now, the majority of folks also are Fat Bastards ( I myself have a nice bowling ball gut going on, although I think it was sucked up from my now Hank Hill butt so my total weight stayed the same ).  They can quite easily, in theory, live off that fat for some time ( mobile food pantry ).  I’m sure that they can, but no one is used to skipping meals.  Hell, most folks are used to getting the bare minimum calories a body needs JUST from soda intake.  And speaking personally, I get weak from skipping one meal.  My body doesn’t like a lack of fuel.  I could still function properly off my stored fat, as far as metabolic functions, but I wouldn’t fare well mentally and my performance would immediately suffer ( headaches, queasy, etc. ).  I wonder how many others would do likewise? 
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We might be fat, but we are not in great shape nor are our bodies trained to function without consuming extra fat, protein and sugar ( generally speaking of course ).   I think it fair to say that even with stored body fat, after two weeks of not eating, after our two week food stockpile is depleted ( for the majority of the population that are NOT preppers ), for all intents and purposes we cease to perform at even far below optimal levels.  The human body doesn’t last much past a month starving, assuming NO disease brings that shorter, and hence long before that month you see serious performance issues.  I believe two weeks without eating being the average optimistic level of performance is, once again, best case.
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Combine the best case food supply of two weeks and the best case of two weeks without food being able to perform at any standard, despite extra stored fat, and one month assumes the majority of population depletion.  Because, remember, neither your house, nor your village nor your castle store food for disruptions any more.  The food is thousands of miles away, and THAT is your storage-the food coming off the machines in the fields, or from the processor.  Half the food we consume is eating out and the majority of that food is frozen and the average person lives off of frozen food in their home, too.  Canned food is a minority item, and is mostly vitamin foods anyway. 
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Even if there is food stored by you, it is probably frozen and hence not all that useful to you long term.  And as the mob storms the food depot they each get one bag of frozen breaded mushrooms or chicken nuggets.  Big deal, so what, who cares.  In all the history of mankind, food was stored to get past the winter to the next harvest and The Starving Time prior to that harvest was natural and normal and reoccurring.   The anomaly of the Seven Years in Egypt was because they were one of the few areas you couldn’t deplete the soil without really friggin trying.  So, the norm was one year of food stored, and that is if everything went right.  To assume that the die-off will last a year now, when we rely on JIT and historically they couldn’t always store a years food when all that was local, that is just simply silly. 
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Two weeks storage, two weeks to cessation of effectiveness.  One month, under optimal conditions.  One month is best case scenario.  But double that anyway, to be safe.  Two months die-off.  The longer period die-off will be the termination period of those few groups who fought and stole and hoarded the majority of the food but couldn’t last past the stored foods.  But outside that group, that very small group, a subject covered later, the bulk of the population dies-off at maximum of two months.
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44 comments:

  1. I'm the opposite. When I eat I get lazy. My understanding is that blood circulation is altered due to digestion - blood from all parts of the body are directed to the digestion process. So I mostly eat 2 times a day, minimally about 1pm and then a full meal about 7pm, and nothing the rest of the time. So from about 8pm til 1pm the next day I consume no food and drink 2 cups of mud and ample water. Been this way for decades. Total cost for food intake for myself per day is less than $5, throw in the coffee and water and now I'm at $6/day. Times 30 days and that about $180 per month. Adds up quick doesn't it? $6 a day times 356 days thats about what, $2,200.00 per year. WoW. Grub is 'spensive.

    I wonder what the average cost for food per person per day is in the US, anybody know?

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    1. If half of all meals are eating out, it has to be insane. The other half are probable very expensive frozen convenience foods. Considering that Food Stamps are considered poverty eating, and I don't spend close to that amount, one can imagine the average fat humper spends $400+ a month at the low end.

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    2. Here is a quote:

      In general, a meal costs $5 to $7 at a fast food restaurant, but the cost of cooking at home averages out to $1.50 to $3 per person. That's a 40-79 percent savings for healthier, homemade food.
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      that is from:
      https://www.aol.com/2013/05/13/did-you-know-fast-food-isnt-cheaper-savings-experiment/
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      That is $325 or so a month, half and half, middle cost for both eating out and in. Now you can add in snacks for TV and sodas. Now add on more for real dining establishments as opposed to fast food. I don't think $400 as a base is too far off.

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    3. Ghost your about right USDA says it cost between 180 and 220 a month per person. That's 6 to 7$ a day.

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  2. Correct. Warehouse and club stores do some business and small restaurant sales, some yuppie bulk buying of non foods, and mostly pretty pony daily shopper foods. Immigrants shop at their own labeled stores and frequently all week to feed the squads living in each house. Jim's timelines of die off when the complete grinding up of the gears of the systems is spot on. 30 days total panic locust swarming. 60 days a few walking dead and some haphazard groups of scavengers. 90 days isolated pockets of semi-organized holdouts, but future prospects in doubt. through these time frames and further on only fanatical adherent MINIONS and the rare outlier "true survivalist" group will be able to go to ground and make it to a post collapse period, but that is when really hard work begins.

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    1. I don't think any of us are adverse to the hard work. We disagree with the hard work without a purpose ( well, okay, supporting the elite is technically a purpose, but not a very good one ).

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  3. You mentioned getting weak after skipping a meal, makes a good case for fasting every now and then to get the body used to operating without constant meals.

    I tend to do that every couple of weeks just for that reason. I also tend to eat one meal a day, usually supper.

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    1. That might not be the worst idea, the fasting.

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  4. I tend to forget, to eat. Usually my routine, is getting up around 4 am and read while drinking coffee. This till say 8 am, by then my stomach protests from all the coffee and illI eat a whole grain muffin. Sometime before 3 pm I eat a sandwich...then a lite meal around six. Been this way my whole life. Have always viewed food as just fuel and really don't have any favorite things to eat...except pizza ha ha.
    The Dragon lady won't let me eat pizza all the time though.
    Pretty much leave sugar alone and quit drinking soda back in the nineties. I've had the same bottles of beer setting in the fridge since Six Bears visited a few months ago.
    Had to buy another twelve pack after that evening with Six Bears. We had pizza and beer along with much good conversation.
    I swear my fifteen pound dog eats more than I do...
    The fat little fuck...

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    1. You think your dog is a fat bastard, the NOL's dog is a beagle and bull mix and should be a tiny tot, but eats more meat than I do ( at least by body weight to consumption ratio ) and is a fat slob. And that is two walks a day. 35 lbs! PS-last two lines, hilarious. I busted out laughing.

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    2. Ha, my dog eats top of the range and I eat whatever's cheap

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    3. Well, we love our pets more than other people. Perhaps more than ourselves? :)

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    4. Hell, how could you not love that cute Lil face ?

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  5. Your end links don't seem to be working on the last couple of posts.

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    1. Remember the discussion on dropping PayPal because of their new browser requirement? I was urged to go with the browser named after Obammy's African village but was also warned to back up my hard drive. Too much work and risk, so I just finally went with Google Chrome. Less than optimal, but better than waiting for my Internet computer to become obsolete by design. Long story less long, Chrome doesn't copy a link and then paste it as such. I had to remember to always click the Link Button, THEN paste. So, I think it took me two days of pasting he link to realize this. Obviously, I forgot to go back and fix them ( now why, again, do I go through all this trouble of recycling mail envelopes for note paper if I forget to take notes? ). Sorry, I think it should be good tomorrow. Remind me if it isn't. God, after all that typing, I hope you were refering to the link at the end of the article, the "today's related link". If not, please tell me 'cause I have a bigger problem. Thanks!

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  6. Each 1 1/2 ounce shot of bourbon is about 65-90 calories. Just thought I would help. ;-)

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    1. That' it? Terrible calories per dollar ratio! No wonder alkies are skinny.

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    2. pdx alcoholics are not skinny, but they do get fitty cents on the food stamps Dolloro. EBT+panhandling is actually quite a few bucks for whiskey every month.
      The downside (the buzz and calories are a survival positive!) of booze is fatty liver disease. Livers are expensive, even in China with the super-deluxe vegetarian live-harvested-to-order (murdered, parted-out) prisoner-donors!

      Larry Niven had some stories with background including The Organ Banks. We are headed that way.

      pdxr13

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  7. Fellow Minions discussions of ration eating now in a pattern will help immensely post apoc. Some fasting/fluids only will help purge out the g.i. tract and flush worms out. Minions will then be light on their feet and fulfill role as light infantry running and gunning with A.R.s and FLIR scopes. I like to plan/practice now for po-boy stupidly simple bare bones basic meals (rations-really) so as to be conditioned for privation. A Minion idea to share is to compartmentalize food stocks into a one ration or one day (two rations) packaging for ease of transport, storage, (instead of bulk barrels) preparation, and/or serving sizing. Some of these "easy times" steps and preparations now, will put a smile on your face for being such a smarty pants come game day. Plan accordingly and STAND BY.

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    1. Sooo....you're eating nuke bread then? :)

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    2. Anon - good idea. I'll certainly consider adopting it.

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    3. Training without electricity. Pots and pans and eating with fingers like refugee!

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    4. Individual packaging of rations preserves most rations when the outer package fails. Don't forget to include MRE-like items of matches/wiper/candy in your packs.

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  8. I think your timelines are pretty accurate if we assume a hard starting point. However, if we "ease" our way into a die off (like Venezuela) and slowly start to tighten our belts prior to a major event finishing us off, we will have much less time to react. I hear the average citizen down there is already down 20 pounds (not that they had much extra weight to begin with). If we start off weak and malnourished and we've already blown through the "two week" buffer of stored food just in everyday living we could have a die off that is completely done in under a month.

    -Novice

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    1. Damn! I wish I had thought of that analogy. I would have sounded smart.

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  9. If you’ve ever seen Survivorman, with Les Stroud, it’s one of the few realistic shows of this genre (He only has a crew with him before heading out, and hauls his own camera gear and films himself from then on). Well, one thing that you will notice is that after a few days into a 7 day challenge, he will mention that if he doesn’t secure some food soon, then he will be too weak to finish out the challenge. I know that in one particular challenge, he had to call it quits early, because he failed to do so.

    He’s of slender build (about like you and I) and perhaps just a little older. Perhaps fat people, with their additional stores, will not become as weak as fast. Actual starvation does take some time, but in short, I think that most people will become dysfunctional within the first week without food. Another consideration is that most modern western people are not used to lean times, and will become very hostile in short order.

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    1. They'll be disorientated without the constant 4k calories a day, get really stressed, do stupid crap and meltdown. And those are ones without the opiate addiction :) Doing stupid crap will win them extra points in the Darwin Award contest. Most should die with plenty of fat still on them.

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    2. Joe Rogan mentions some fatty fat fat that went on a zero calorie medically monitored diet. He at nothing for a year but did have vitamin supplements.

      In an unrelated story the guys local pie shop went out of business

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    3. The fat ones will be the first ones to call it quits. I have seen obese ones get faint if lunch is delayed an hour, most of them are in one stage of diabetes or another.

      The ones that do survive will be daunting though, any stores they do find will be eaten on the spot and not shared. Think Private Pyle in Full Metal Jacket.

      That brings me to another point.Anyone not losing weight during the die off will be considered suspect,folks with supplies should consider severe rations so they don't stick out like sore thumbs. You can go back on full rations after 60 days

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    4. The remaining fat on the long pork will help with flavor. Seasonings and spices with low and slow heat cooking (on spit or kabob it) you and your dogs will eat well.

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    5. Can you even live a full year without eating. What I mean is, at four thousand calories a pound for fat, wouldn't you need an extra 200 pounds? Do people outside Guiness Book weight that much?
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      A Jelly Donut?!?!

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    6. Twinkies even, a la Zombieland

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    7. Will Twinkies still taste fresh if you have to forego salvage during the die-off? Perhaps that should have factored into perceived time period to lie low.

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  10. Interesting calculation, that one month. Good argument. I calculate six months before things quiet down.

    I pray we never find out if you are correct. Once the dogs of war are loose, all bets are off.

    Fog and friction, don't you know.

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    1. Even my plans don't survive contact with the enemy :)

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  11. Minions be advised that a lack of protein and amino acids, etc. will cause a wasting of muscle mass as well as spare tire fat. Your body will burn up both in circumstances without a stasis of intake. It will be a real nutritionist study to ensure that surviving on carbs or sugars or tree roots don't weaken one past a point of no return after a long term hide out. Scale weight measures may not accurately reflect loss of fat but loss of muscle or water as well. Most minions are not herbivores at salad bars or gumming bran muffins in tooth deficit mouths. They mostly have canine teeth and need meat, either stored, or harvested off the hoof. Searches for food replenishment take precedent over pussy or other diversions.

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    1. " Searches for food replenishment take precedent over pussy or other diversions. "
      Unless it is batteries for FLIR scopes!

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    2. Damn protein requirements. Oh well, even Spam is a better price than freeze dried mystery meat.

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  12. Fat people usually have strong leg muscles, they are after all, humping a 100# pack all day long. My understanding is when they go on extreme diets they lose more weight through muscle loss than fat.

    You would not want to eat a modern fat person. Having some fat, in pre-petroleum days was a sign of wealth (having excess). Being fat now, is a sign of poverty, poor nutrition and lifestyle choices. Some people get excited about cattle raised in unsanitary feed-lot conditions for fast-food restaurants. Yes, this is a poor choice for healthy beef, but the "meat" from a modern fat person is likely much more toxic than the feed-lot cow from all the processed junk food and years of prescription drug consumption.

    If you have plenty of food while others do not, you're obviously a target. I wouldn't recommend losing weight past gaunt cheeks in order not to lose your fighting strength. I would recommend instead, that you stock clothes one size larger than normal for you to wear. ONLY long sleeve shirts and pants, so the size of your legs and arms can't be accurately determined.

    I just wanted to remind people of the Donner Party tragedy. The group that tried to hike to the settlements near Sacramento for help was called "The Forlorn Hope." At one time, the group spotted a deer within range, however nobody was strong enough to lift the weight of their rifle to shoot it. They had such difficulty lifting their legs to walk, that when they encountered a fallen tree in their path, they had to roll over it instead of stepping over it.
    Peace out

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    1. I did forget about all those prescription drug toxins. Remember, caffine in the water from so many folks drinking so much coffee. And that is the weakest drug available.

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  13. My final attempt to steer you away from the path of “wrong”. First, it really depends on the definition of “die off”. I’m not sure you ever laid down a marker, but from some comments I gather that you believe there will be a 99.99% die off in 60 days. As I’ve commented before, I think you’re snorting unicorn farts. If you said the first 60 days would see a 50% die off, I’d likely agree. Hell, I’d probably go all the way up to 75%. It’s just an opinion, but I have to throw the BS flag at 99.99%. No way.

    A couple of things to acknowledge first: 1. I may have a skewed view from Ranger School, but I know what it is like to live in a 5-7K calorie deficit and still bust your ass daily. 2. Not everyone is a rocket scientist, but why would everyone gobble all of their chow in the first two weeks? There are plenty of dummies, but more than you think would go to reduced rations after 72 hours. 3. Why wouldn’t people pick a friggin’ apple off a tree and eat it? I will grant, in XYZ Metropolis, there will be many who would rather keep trying the ATM machine (to no avail), but not everyone is 99.99% retarded.

    A few figures to consider. Today in the USA there are 250K Amish. I’m fairly certain they won’t be dying too quickly. Defense? Do the homies frequent Amish country? What about Mormons? There are roughly 6.4M Mormons living in the USA. These two groups alone put you at 2% of our population! What about farmers? That’s another 1-2% of the population. Of course there is some overlap with the Amish and Mormons, so let’s call it .5%. We’re now up to 2.5%. Next let’s factor people who live in rural areas. Rural folks might be hooked on JIT, but they sure as hell have enough sense to pick an apple form a tree vs. punch an ATM machine. 19.3% of our population are rural folks. Granted there are plenty of meth heads in rural America, but even if a quarter of them have enough sense to fish, kill a squirrel, etc. That’s 4.8% + the aforementioned 2.5% puts you at 7.3%. I think I’m being overly generous here.

    Finally, I think you also need to consider veterans. Sure there were the radiology techs in the Air Force who couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper sack, but there is a large percentage with survival skills. The same with first responders. There is also a percentage of costal dwellers who have been through hurricanes and have stocked up some supplies as a lesson learned. Obviously not all of them, but some. My point is that I haven’t even mentioned the “preppers”. I think you need several months and a winter to get to 99.99%

    JeSteR

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    1. I agree that my 99.99 figure is too paranoid. I'd guess an even 90% guaranteed. But that is best case, 99 worse case. All your examples have issues. The Amish and Mormons are surrounded by non believers. Targets. As for rationing, most folks would assume the gooberment will be rescuing them, plus, there won't be much to ration. All the orchards and wild weeds are vitamins, not calories ( to an extent ). There aren't enough farmers who must also survive raids to reduce the death figures, and the raiders will be that small select group I mention, because the raiders are fighting raiders on the raiders. Everyone is armed and converging on the few obvious sources. A lot of food will rot amongst the wounded and dead. In the past, famines were different as you needed muscle weapons to fight. It is easier to pull the trigger, and there are a lot of triggers out there. I think we can agree that it won't be as bad as I think but far worse than you do. I just think that within a month your enemies are reduced in an extreme amount. If one in two hundred lives, or five in one hundred, you can still be as screwed as if 25 per hundred lived. That is your location issue. I just think too many think too many will survive, with no true grasp on logistics. Not saying that is you. I'm saying it is hard to find any scenario that supports any kind of optimism.

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  14. 2 weeks is the BEGINNING of the (first) die off. 2 - 3 months will see people actually starving to death in mass numbers but every mouth that gasps its last leaves a little more left over for the next to survive a bit longer. I personally think we will see it regionally and incremental. Venezuela looks to be the first in the Americas (unless you count Haiti). Puerto Rico will probably be the first US territory. Those with money will get out or stock up what they can even as the shelves go empty. Those with the violent tendencies will get the stocks of the rich they can reach and get through the defenses of. The middle and lower classes will begin joining the violent, or attacking them from ambush - Hunger will drive the violence. And the military will move in to bring 'peace' and insufficient food for the people trying to get to greener pastures (refugees). This will all take MONTHS to play out, not days. but when the numbers are run years later the die off over the whole incident will be in the high % more than 50, less than 99. Then the next place will get an incident like it, and so on and so forth, until every place has its hurricane Katrina equivalent.

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    1. Speaking of Katrina, how long did relief take? Even with infrastructure and ready fuel? Now take away the fuel. I call too much optimism ( and yes, I understand I was full bore pessimist. But that isn't an equal sin ).

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