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Saturday, July 7, 2018

sixty day die-off 2 of 3


SIXTY DAY DIE OFF 2
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Does anyone, anyone at all, Bueller?, Bueller?, remember very recent Just In Time Inventory break downs that took place overnight and yet had lasting impacts for from months to years?  One chicken factory had a disease outbreak and suddenly eggs doubled or tripled in price and stayed that way for a good long time.  One fire at a automobile antifreeze plant and there were shortages and price hikes.  A flash drive plant in Japan was flooded after an earthquake and that computer component spiked in price ( there were Thailand factories to supplement, to keep supply up, but that didn’t help the price ).  The Great Rice Drought.  The near five year rimfire ammunition drought? 
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Obviously to all but politicians and retards, but I repeat myself, the JIT system blows rabid monkey testicles.  Too few sources for too many products and one too many disruptions in supply and the whole world suffers shortages and price increases.  If you recall me telling you, the rice shortage ( more folks globally eat rice than wheat, so it was a very big deal outside this country ) was only short circuited by the Japanese dumping stockpiled rice on to the market.  Which was really good PR on their part, as I’m sure most Ornamentals don’t consider a mere two nukes sufficient punishment for the Greater Asian Co-Prosperity Occupation they conducted a few generations ago. 
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But guess what?  JIT systems don’t do inventory.  The Japanese had a One Off stockpile that was a byproduct of its trade wars with us.  They bought a bunch of California rice which was probably considered inferior slop, and stockpiled it as part of a strategic effort ( like the wheat we USED to stockpile, for Cold War citizen fodder ).  It was food, so couldn’t be thrown away, but only bought so they could sell Toyoto’s and Sony Playstation’s over here.
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The reason the rimfire problem persisted so long was that nobody stockpiled the stuff.  Every round made went out every day and every weekend the guys went to the store and bought a box and shot it up.  It was JIT ammunition.  Only a few crazy prepper dudes put aside any for the future.  Then, as the price of fuel spiked along with metal ( since it now takes more energy to mine and process ore ), suddenly the rimfire dudes had to pay more for brass, and/or had to raise prices so the demand for their product didn’t overwhelm supply ( if you are maxed out on production, the way to keep the demand at your capacity is to raise prices drastically ).  If suddenly the military AND the paramilitary needs more ammo, AND China needs more copper, AND suddenly every rimfire shooter wants to stockpile some to cover the empty shelf issue, AND every prepper wants to do that plus more, you have a multi-year shortage.
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Why is rimfire cheap-er if not as cheap as it was before, besides inflation?  Global demand for copper tanked.  The Chinese weren’t selling products so didn’t need as much raw material.  The military was occupying Iraq and the hot war subsided.  The Alphabet Soup agencies were already stockpiled with enough handgun ammo.  Every time Obammy DIDN’T impose gun control laws after an election or school shooting, the next time fewer folks panic bought.  Casual rimfire shooters had dropped out of the sport due to cost.  AND, please try to imagine how important this is, disposable income is complete crap in this economy.  All raises and all shrinking income alike goes to increased rent, increased health care and increased insurance, amongst other costs ( all to the greedy asswhore scumbag bankers ).
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The lesson here is that if you aren’t buying ammo now you are really a complete and utter moron and I’m embarrassed for you.  As you should be for yourself.  You’ll lose income, and cost of insurance will go up, so sell your boat or bike or ATV and buy ammo ( if you need it ).  Whatever.  Get ammo while you can ( I assume you minimized ammo and maximized wheat until food was assured, then turned to ammo ).  Because the second lesson here is that JIT inventory is a cold stone gold plated whore.  No one is stocking inventory and everyone is either manufacturing at capacity or going out of business through demand destruction ( from reduced purchasing power for anything not banker profitable ).
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You cannot blame businesses for JIT.  Necessity is the mother of invention, and just as easy cheap oil destroyed all previous infrastructure, dear energy demanded JIT and it drove out all other ways of doing business.  But now you’ve had plenty of warning.  JIT is the only way inventory is held and JIT is disruptive.  Any small issue compromises a products availability and when several small issues combine the shortages and price hikes last years.  Because your customer went from JIT to the old method of stockpiling, the whole system disrupts.  There isn’t enough for both existing customers AND stockpilers ( the rice shortage mushroomed as everyone started stockpiling for themselves, just like the rimfire shooters ).
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This is the whole point for being frozen in fear over the JIT system.  It has already proven to be unable to handle disruptions.  Already many parts of both Africa and the middle east are in semi-permanent states of malnourishment for the poor after a couple of drought years.  Instead of JIT’ing grain, the norm now ( you ship out your grain, someone else will ship you theirs when you need it ), as soon as a country starts stockpiling instead of exporting, the whole system breaks down.  This is probably why all areas of the globe except Africa are in demographic meltdown, the rates of births dropping drastically.  It isn’t condom availability or woman’s rights, it is tightening food supplies forcing less pregnancies ( Africa is always the exception-their strategy is always to overpopulate.  The rest of us quickly under populate.  I don’t know why, although it would be fascinating to learn ).
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Any energy disruption that goes along with our current implosion, be it economic or health care or whatever causes a system stutter, JIT inventory will exponentially worsen the situation.  It is guaranteed.  The die-off will be helped along marvelously by JIT inventory disruptions.  We continue and conclude tomorrow.
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28 comments:

  1. Got a pay rise this week. The Government also lowered the threshold for repaying student debts. Wouldn't you know it? The pay rise and the lower threshold almost meet. So my pay rise could mean that I take home less money if I'm not very careful. That's just awesome ;-)

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    1. Sounds about like overtime pay. It always seems to put you in a higher tax bracket, and you are left making less per hour instead of more.

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  2. RE: JIT

    I hate it when the supermarket has items I routinely buy on special. Why? Because the shelves are invaribly stripped bare and of course won't be restocked until the special has expired.

    Thankfully I personally don't practice JIT for food or fuel.


    Off topic - I've found a blog of an Aussie that's living the Bison Dream. He has rural land bordering a forest & get this. His house cost him $300. He bought the house off a farmer, pulled it down & rebuilt it on his junkish land.

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    1. Was that the guy you got the EMP article from? I'd love a link on his cheap house! Exciting stuff, this hovel living.

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    2. Only because you're the Lord of the Bison with Pert Plus worthy hair

      https://australiansurvivalandpreppers.blogspot.com/2013/08/off-grid-1.html

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    3. As usual, you are too kind. Thanks.

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    4. Apologies but that blog goes off the rails into politics & gets quite tiresome. I did get some things from it though

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    5. It didn't strike me as a "saver" anyway. Nothing wrong with cherry picking, but time must be rationed. I flipped through a few articles and there just wasn't any meat to them.

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  3. Yes, JIT is a necessity of corporate management to keep it's head above water fiscally. Using wally/kroger grocery as examples a certain product will be out of stock for weeks or so because that product is not warehoused in large quantities or what amount available is shipped to another warehouse/area instead. The food factory may be out of base materials and has to go idle for a while (sanitation excuse used) laying off workers a few weeks/forced vacations. Computer A.I. algorythyms take over human ordering-stocking for maximum economy providing no cushion for shocks or surges to business demands. If a minion cannot nail doors to his B-POD shut and self sustain internally for months on end, more work is needed. Keep at it Jim!

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    1. I'm not going to the grocery store like I used to. Two weeks between is the minimum. I didn't realize the restocking was that bad!

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    2. Ya, when chicken flavored ramen noodle 12 pack boxes, and koolaid 24 cent little packets (high volume sellers) are out of stock for weeks at a time there is something amiss. Add in EBT locust swarm buying early each month. It is like a dance ballet the way business plays this inventory-sales game now. You are right that it is indicative of larger problems.

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    3. I was amazed when the second or third of the month the item is in stock, but not the 28th. So I always figured the EBT first of the month was just an excuse.

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  4. I really think JIT came about as a way to manipulate prices. I will use gasoline as an example.

    OPEC decides to reduce pumping oil, immediately gas skyrockets up to 4 bucks a gallon, not because that is what the gas in the station tank cost, but because of what next drop could cost. They keep it there for a while, then drop it back to 2.75 a gallon and everyone is happy because they aren't paying 4 bucks. Nevermind it used to cost 2 bucks a gallon. The same principal applies to other commodities.

    You seem to be giving the right advice, buy food first, ammo second, then add all the nice to have things like solar panels after all that. No sense having 10k rounds if you don't have the strength to pull a bolt back. And folks with the Walter Mitty fantasy of occupying a Wal Mart are going to be disappointed in how little inventory they really have.

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    1. That is why you need a semi, so you don't need food for the strength of manipulating the bolt. I agree with you on the see-saw prices. Jacked up, then the new low higher. However, I don't see this as a manipulation. Just Demand Destruction and the whiplash supply of all commodities as we go into the steeper decline ( shortage, raise prices, old customers drop out, so prices lower, more new customers cause shortage, prices rise again, repeat ).

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    2. Added seasonal fuel additives changeover at refineries and forced ethanol corn additives have boned the customer in the keister on prices. It is a game.

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    3. I'm sure that is A factor, because who doesn't need more hookers and blow, but it isn't THE factor. Past price manipulations are not the same as the present ones. The danger in thinking it is ONLY a conspiracy ( and I agree that some aspects are ) means when real depletion shows itself you hold out false hope it will go away.

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    4. Yes, it will be like street fuel sellers in the turd world peddling questionable fuel out of mish mash containers. I am really looking forward to that pathetic miserable existence scratching dirt with the chickens, yeah!

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    5. But while scratching in the dirt you will be styling with your pimping AR with FLIR, so there is that.

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    6. Starched cammies, bloused trousers at the boots, operator gear about me body, zippo lighter lighting up cigars, prefer SAR-8 battle rifle, yep, bad man walking.

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    7. Gots to look cool for the apocalypse. Go out in style. Don't look like a ragamuffin.

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  5. "Was that the guy you got the EMP article from? I'd love a link on his cheap house! Exciting stuff, this hovel living.”


    Good stuff; I checked it out. Apparently this dude bought the house, marked the individual pieces, and then disassembled it piece by piece in order to reassemble it on his property; quite ambitious! I’ve thought about this as well, but I’m realistic enough to know my limits.

    You might have come across this one Jim, but in the book below, the author did much the same thing, but on a much more simple level. He found an old summer kitchen, and paid a $100 for it. It was small enough that he was able to jack it up, coax it onto a lowboy trailer, and haul the entire thing to his property that way. I’m thinking that I might just do the same. Great book by the way, but probably a bit dated by today’s standards.

    Country Property Dirt Cheap: How I Found My Piece of Inexpensive Rural Land...Plus My Adventures with a $300 Junk Antique Tractor.

    https://www.amazon.com/Country-Property-Dirt-Cheap-Inexpensive/dp/0945959524/ref=pd_sim_14_4?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0945959524&pd_rd_r=a5ca5b21-8240-11e8-aa7b-1331fb4ea84e&pd_rd_w=JDvcb&pd_rd_wg=3vC1F&pf_rd_i=desktop-dp-sims&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_p=7967298517161621930&pf_rd_r=8ZV14VG8J6NB7CYNB6A7&pf_rd_s=desktop-dp-sims&pf_rd_t=40701&psc=1&refRID=8ZV14VG8J6NB7CYNB6A7

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    1. I finally got that book, but of course haven't read it yet.

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    2. I enjoyed that book quite a bit, and you might like it as well. It’s mid 90’s as I recall, and the plat maps that he talks about are all online now, I do believe. He was from the Midwest, and mentions that it was the wooded land in such areas that was the cheapest, as opposed to the arable land. I remember thinking how cool it was that he got that summer kitchen to be used as a cabin for a $100.

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    3. I sure wish I had got hold of that book before I wasted so much time and money in Florida, certainly.

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  6. Minion reading suggestion: zero hedge 07-07-18 article: "why the coming oil crunch will shock the world". Yep, supports Jim's writings. Bumper stickers on post collapse horse drawn wagons will read: "LORD BISON WAS RIGHT!"

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    1. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-07/why-coming-oil-crunch-will-shock-world
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      I'll be happy to be mentioned along with personal hero Malthus. Call me a fan boy

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    2. I am not a minion. I am a free man!

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    3. All readers are "loyal minions". A term of endearment. I forgive you for not proudly wearing the label since you are new and know not of what you protest. Think of our dear misunderstood African-American brethren using the N Bomb on themselves. They wear an otherwise insulting title as a badge of honor. And, Francis? Relax, mmmkay?
      ( my apologies if I missed sarcasm and wasn't meant to take you literally )

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I must moderate-trust me. Criticize ideas, NOT the people behind them. Be civil. You will be warned twice and the third time just deleted. No N-Bombs. If you disagree with me, you must praise my hair first.