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Friday, July 6, 2018

sixty day die off 1 of 3


SIXTY DAY DIE OFF
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[ note prior to starting this article.  I wrote all three articles without once considering cannibalism, a fact that only registered with a minions comment.  Strange, because just two days prior to beginning this series I had made a snarky comment about hunters with 223 caliber rifles being unable to bag their human game.  There is no excuse for my oversight, but this does NOT mean I am slipping into senility.  My mind was just on other topics, sidetracked.  I was distracted, not entering dementia.  After reflecting on my moronic slip for some time, I decided that this series was still fundamentally sound.  The speed of the collapse ( because so many cascading failures had preceded it, the system will crash quickly.  It will seem virtually overnight but there will be foreshocks ), the reluctance to revert to cannibalism for the vast majority of people even during a famine shown historically, the "it's different this time" near universal firearm ownership, all seem to indicate that cannibalism should not alter the timeframe unduly.  This obviously deserves an additional article, which will be forthcoming without too much delay.  Still, I do owe one and all an apology for my slip ]
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I know I covered this before.  When, I have no idea.  Since I don’t index my work, or title it correctly, or give it much mind after we all finish up commenting on it, it is actually usually faster to just write up a new article on a subject than it is to find the first article.  And that is the writing still on blogs online.  My original blog is no longer live, as I didn’t moderate the comments and Google was forever sending me requests to remove offending politically incorrect material, without pinpointing where exactly it was.  Rather than constantly dredging through dozens of comments over dozens of days, I finally just flushed the blog.  Try finding anything in the mess I saved as a PDF or Word file.

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I believe the original article was in reaction to Rawles asserting that the die-off would be one to two years or something similar.  Something which to me is totally unrealistic.  Eighty years ago, compact cities were surrounded by smallholder farms, which primarily relied on draft animals rather than machines ( the huge glut of foods during the Great Depression were from mechanizing the farms, the first Green Revolution as oil was turned into food.  Unfortunately, everyone thinks that paradigm still holds.  Sure, and east Texas is still providing most of the world with its oil ).

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Transportation of food to the cities was still a necessity, but it wasn’t as exposed to disruption as it is today where we have a navy to protect the oil shipped over here from the middle east, which is used to irrigate corn fields in the Midwest and then used to haul that grain to factories and then thousands of miles away to consumers who use the grid to store and cook the food.  Food isn’t local anymore, and the little that is is still reliant on imported oil, because even with the short lived fracking oil ( which is directly a product of easy credit, derivatives and financial shenanigans ) bubble we still import a minimum of half our petroleum and over half of our artificial fertilizer.

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A hundred years ago you had a twenty of thirty mile food transportation problem and today you have a twenty THOUSAND mile food transportation vulnerability ( food and all its components zip merrily along hither and yon, back and forth to the cheapest labor ).  With any disruption of oil or credit ( and need I remind you that the banks love to play in the derivatives market because one can never ever have enough extra hookers and blow in their extra mansions-this is vulnerable as well when a bank has one percent assets to cover liabilities and sometimes that one percent can be a counterparty risk asset-in other words a digital trinket rather than actual currency or gold ), transportation breaks down.

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Oh, not to worry, your urban living ass bleats, the government will nationalize the farms and protect convoys and ship us the food.  Okay, even setting aside the issue of being unable to protect a simple Hummer convoy in failed state Iraq, let alone eight million barrels of oil a day from various locations ( being a naval hegemony to protect shipping lanes is like being a patrol car cop in the ghetto.  The threat along must work, because you can’t protect every single ship/citizen ), have you actually witnessed the government trying to do anything remotely competently lately?  I mean, I’m still waiting for a wall on the Mexican border, a withdrawal from Afghanistan, affordable health care and a retirement system that isn’t already broke.

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There isn’t enough manpower to protect every single aspect of food production.  Like all monopolies on force, the fear of retaliation does most of the heavy lifting.  Absent that fear, the system breaks down.  Remember the Somali pirates?  They didn’t fear the Navy, and ran amok.  In theory, we stopped that and now there is no threat, although I think we just stopped reporting it after a few well publicized SEAL actions.  The problem doesn’t exist if we don’t see it.  Like hauling off World Trade Center rubble so we can’t analyze it for explosives residue, or pretend to kill Osama Bin Obammy, or “disappear“ long term unemployed.

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Anyway.  Does it really take much imagination to figure out that a million threats to a million threads that prop up a global food supply chain can unravel at the speed of light when just a few crucial links fail?  If not enough food to matter is local, the vast majority if not the total dependent on global trade, and the government has a really bad track record of being honest and so anything they tell you is a lie and hence their assumption in a claim in their ability to secure this is likely erroneous, what in the name of all that is holy and just gives you the idea that we can still ship food around for a damn year?!?!

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The nation state as an entity that is adequate for the tasks it has appropriated is directly tied to surplus resources.  Extra resources lead to extra forces protecting this monopoly AND delivering on its promises.  Since the basic task of monopolizing force has been undergoing an erosion for decades now, that basic contract of protection for support has been broken, what makes you think that the state can perform lesser tasks like protecting the food the citizens require?  The state cannot protect you from criminals or terrorists ( I understand that the terrorists were creatures of the deep state intelligence services, another Pearl Harbor false flag.  What YOU should understand is that the state has sold out its perceived role as protector for short term manipulation ), so why do you think it can protect its infrastructure as well?

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The state cannot protect its military from the manipulations of its debt provider ( PC and female equality in combat positions inherently weakens our military readiness or effectiveness ).  And the military is going to protect all our food production?  The bank isn’t going to be throwing money at the military in the event of a major disruption.  How are they functioning well without it?  How do they even procure extra rounds or food themselves?   Continued tomorrow.

END ( today's related link https://amzn.to/2Ky6xOs )
 

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41 comments:

  1. Yes Jim, following this theme and agree with fraying threads of a system that as it unravels, quickly increases and spreads. There is too much interdependancy combined with a lack of thinking fast on their feet and initiative by government and corporate leadership. They will be paralyzed by fear of holding onto their positions to act or make independant decisions. Foreshocks of the system's creaking collapse will be the bugle horn blowing for Minions to go to ground and burrow deeply. Stand by accordingly.

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    1. I don't know about you, but I worry I'll ignore those foreshocks, erroniously thinking they are just more Decline noise rather than Collapse warnings. I like to think I won't, but can't help worry I will.

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    2. I agree, I too feel as if not packed and ready. Mindset will at least be your advantage, combined with a bit of initiative/decisiveness. I try to limit my going soft or sucked fully into the matrix. I don't think we or minions will be those scatter assed characters in disaster and apocalypse movies. With all the pent-up stress and drama of the current times it may be a refreshing relief when things get sporty. Standing by.

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    3. I agree on the refreshing part. Like roughing it camping is worth the lack of stress of work and bills. Hmmmm. I think you just gave me an article idea.

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  2. " but I worry I'll ignore those fore-shocks, erroneously thinking they are just more Decline noise rather than Collapse warnings."
    I agree that there is a great danger of ignoring the warning. In hind sight it will be very plain and if you are around for a future generation they will ask "How could you not know this was the END?" Most of the generations left in the USA have lived all their adult life in some chaos or decline. If we take the blinders off we cannot keep living the 'Merica drean.

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    1. And I think most of us do have blinders on to one extent or another. Self preservation, avoiding insanity, not JUST laziness or wallowing in luxury.

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  3. Actually, I think the Somali pirate thing got brought under control after private mercenaries started riding the high value cargo ships. YouTube videos about it are amusing.

    Just In Time logistics assure the die off would set in in a week (that figure includes all those 72 hour kits). My dad used to say, "The only difference between the last depression and the one that is coming, is folks don't know how to be poor anymore". The great majority don't know the difference between poison ivy and dandelion.

    Just the people on medication (legal and otherwise) would expire quickly when the trucks stop rolling. I knew a guy on xanax that decided to quit cold turkey and that almost killed him.

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    1. Ah, okay. I hadn't heard of the mercs on ships. That makes much more sense than the military getting it under control ( no offense, SEAL dudes, but your brass in the Pentagon are no where near qualified to breath ). Nope, no one knows how to be poor anymore. Oooohhh, I NEED a car. I NEED a big ass house even though I mostly live at work. I'm positive I NEED three AR's and twenty other semi's. I had to add that one :)

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  4. Yes the availability of plentiful meat on the hoof, skews the die off timetable.
    The majority will resist the temptation, but those which convert to the other white meat. Will maintain strength...
    To prey on those who won't.
    I can foresee the raider/cannibal thing lasting much longer than one might like to see.
    Guaranteed they won't be singing kumbiyah when they stop by.

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    1. This isn't JUST being hungier and meaner. You also have to survive the attempt at harvesting. Hence, I don't think it will gain much traction or last long. I could be wrong, and would love more input prior to writing on it further.

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    2. I haven't studied in depth, but the little I know about it seems to divide cannibalism into two categories, opportunistic (Donner party) and ritualistic (eating the heart of an enemy). It also seems there is something going around the few true cannibals the makes mad cow look like the common cold.

      The idea of wild eyed cannibals circling the BPOD would not keep me up at night

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    3. Generally where I landed on the worry scale. I know the disease you speak of, from spinal fluid and brains, but there are a large number of diseases you can get even without eating those parts. Depleted meat once captured, further depletion in captivity from lack of food, meat fighting back, and then disease and I find it hard to believe cannibalism is any answer past isolated pocket scale. Of COURSE it will occur-I just don't see it being very successful.

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    4. These are called Prion diseases. Prions are just malformed/undigestible proteins that lodge in your brain and cause neurological problems. Bovine Spongiform Encephalitis (Mad Cow Disease) is caused by a prion. The human brain prion usually results in Kuru, though you are right that any same-species flesh can cause a prion disease.
      As a note, a new study (where the first new prion in 50 years was discovered) suggests that both Alzheimer's and some forms of Parkinson's MAY be linked to prions.

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    5. So I'm safe to go back eating out of aluminum pots? :)

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  5. I agree with a die off starting at about the 60 day mark. The human body is amazing in how long it can function with very limited calories so death is prolonged till 120 to 180 days. Thus your a zombie near death the last 2 or 3 months alive.

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    1. I was going for "die-off COMPLETE in 60 days". The body might function longer than 30 days, but from hunger strikes you can ascertain the levels of functionality drop quickly. And I was assuming no calories. If peasant farmers can die-off, unable to find food, what chance do New Yorkers have?

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    2. Well, if you’re going by Bobby Sands, of “The Bobby Sands 66 day weight loss program” fame, then yes, this is about right :D

      Oh well, British minions will probably get the sick joke :D

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    3. while it would be nice to think of 90% competing eaters being gone in 60 days you have to factor in our obesity level extending it.

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    4. I knew about the hunger strikes, but couldn't remember the name of course:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Sands
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      Gary, I factor in obesity levels. Perhaps I cover that tomorrow. The only problem writing a week ahead is I can't remember 90% of what I just posted.

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  6. Years ago I wrote a guest article for you detailing why cannibalism wasn't practical. Main reason is people are to salty, to riddled with parasites and diseases, to fat, full of toxins. etc....Of course with your wheat diet, you are grain-fed Grade A Choice! That's what you get for all that healthy living and bike riding! :-)

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    1. Thankfully I'm no longer spry and delicious. Unless everyone still goes by presentation alone, and then with my hair...:)

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  7. I hope it is 60 days to die off this herd. I think there will be a lot of hanger-ons still lingering and dangerous nuisances. There will be pockets of groups-tribes, individuals who have food/abilities to hold out longer but are not any sort of survivalist or of use. It may be a large amount die off at first but a stair step down slowing and tapering off as the remainders holding out get better at this stuff.

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    1. Right, we just cover the majority. After it is over, for all intents and purposes it is the 99.99% die-off, for those on the ground it will be a really long haul with the danger.

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  8. I'll have to get mighty skinny afore I eat any diseased 2 legged animals. And even then it will be cooked so hard it will be jerky-like so anything still in it will be carbon. (can you get aids or any of that other nasty shit by eating it?)

    "...have you actually witnessed the government trying to do anything remotely competently lately?"

    The only thing I'd change there is the word lately to ever.
    Did I ever tell you about my "Rule of 8"?
    Everything the gov't tries to do costs 8 times as much as originally projected, and 8 time more inefficient than if the private sector did it. The reasons are built-into the batter.

    When past farmer Cantelope Bill's place today, about 1.5 miles from here, and he had baskets of tomatoes out on the tables. Whoa. Those Celebrity models, $4 for a basket with about 5 in it. Man, they blow store boughts away without even trying. Supper tonight is lettuce and tomato sandwichs with 1/2" thick slices. Perfect ending to a hot assed day.dageez!

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    1. There is so much disinfo out there on AIDS ( I think it is man made, but I'll admit you gotta be a bit paranoid on that one ) it is hard to know for sure, but I myself would not take a chance. It is like the nasty ass jack rabbits around here-don't eat them the warm half of the year because of worms. Makes me not want to eat them at all, ever. Same with people. They PROBABLY have some nasty crap. Even just cancer. You want to eat that? Cancer is another one with plenty of disinfo out there to protect the medical industry profits, so why roll the dice?

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    2. Prions, not viruses or bacteria, are the things to worry about unless you are a pale-weak Veg-eater. Mad Cow/C-J disease are what the long-term result is. A local food nurse and I were pondering what would make cow brain/spinal meat "safe" for human consumption. I suggested pressure cooking to 240 degree F, and she said that it wasn't hot enough. She suggested killing the animal + completely incinerating the carcass, and never-ever feeding domestic animal parts to other domestic animals as feed "supplements" (very common in commercial food to increase protein levels).

      You can't be sure of meat safety unless you are hands-on from grass/bugs to plate. That's a lot of work compared to $1.99 canned chicken breast from (somewhere) or $0.59 sardines from Thailand (check with Geiger counter).

      pdxr13

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    3. "check with Geiger counter"
      That one cracked me up! I eat the occasional fish stick and will probably grow a third testicle just from those few ounces a year. Don't trust sea food!

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  9. There is no way 99.99% buy the farm in 60 days. You’re dreaming on this one. First, it depends on the time of year. Second, the type of collapse. I’ll agree that a staggering amount of people would be dead in the first 60 days, but nowhere near what you are thinking...I guess...this is 1 of 3. I’ll read the next two.

    JeSteR

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    1. I'd love to be proven wrong. Well, it is a discussion. A thought exercise. How about, I'd love information to counter my theory.

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    2. I'm not sure how to dispute an opinion. JIT delivery, over reliance on the grid and transportation systems coupled with nobody knowing how to do anything old times does not bode well for civilization. However, I think 2 months is way too fast for 99.99% die off. You can go with zero food for 3 weeks. That's dang near 50% of your prediction. Not to mention, the human body is far more resilient than we give it credit for. This includes the fatties. Yes, I know that city dwellers only have ketchup in the fridge, but what about vending machines, warehouses, restaurants, schools, hotels, warehouses, train cars, and semis all stocked with nonperishable food? How about all the dogs and cats? The fish in all the ponds, rivers, lakes and oceans? I don't know. I think you'll need to have a winter to get to the numbers you're talking about. Just my opinion.

      JeSteR

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    3. How to dispute an opinion. Just like you did. I'm defending an opinion. Doesn't mean either is right or wrong. It is a discussion trying to arrive at a Wild Ass Guess that is better than most. As for dogs-one meal per owner. Vending machines-lots of calories, but good for two or three folks, and odds are one gets sick from that sugar overload. Trucks are great resources. For one tribe. And they can't carry it far. So how many people die over that one truck? Remember, most eateries/school caf's, fast food, are frozen food. The #10 cans are mostly a small supplement and tiny percentage of frozen. The main issue is lack of transportation. One semi could feed a thousand people for a few days. Between lack of transport ( lack of safe and unobstructed flow ) and fighting, only a few people get that food. Plus, don't forget everyone will be spraying 5.56 all over the place. A lot of cans will get damaged :)

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    4. Timing will be important. A late-summer disaster disrupts harvests, but an early winter disaster tends to cull the weak/unprepared more. What the depopulators are looking for is not a single thing that goes wrong, but to stack so many problems that it's impossible to save half of the population and if they try to, they will lose 75%+ (the official plan is to try to save as many as possible, unofficially something more like "save my family first/most, help people who can be helped at no risk/cost to me"). Aaaaand, you don't get to pick the good/useful folks to save. The meanest psychopaths and BPD/ASPD folks have a survival advantage because they are so convincing (expert liars, frequently high-IQ with fantastic memories)and initially-charismatic. Borderline Personality Disorder, Anti-Social Personality Disorder, sorry.

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    5. Are you saying that depopulation is a plan? As in, you can control it? I don't buy into that. The Malthus plan will work. Any other plan is hubris and disillusionment.

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    6. It's a plan. Not my plan. I believe that things can be set in motion that can not be controlled or stopped. Yes, hubris of those who believe that a controlled die-off will leave them with an advanced civilization of a few hundred million (with the current elite in-control natch')is going to be a bubble that will pop spectacularly. A bunch (>3x10^9?) of folks will become bystander corpses.

      pdxr13

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    7. Right, a bunch of idiot savants smart in stealing money think they can macro engineer a die-off. I like your likening that to another bubble.

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  10. I found this link that Minions may find interesting. TL;DR - EMP effects on cars appears to be vastly overstated https://australiansurvivalandpreppers.blogspot.com/2018/07/emp-effects-on-vehicles-report.html

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    1. That was interesting. Perhaps now EMP PA stories will join zombies probability wise? Too much to hope for.

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  11. “can you get aids or any of that other nasty shit by eating it?”


    As I recall, it must enter the bloodstream in order to be infected by it, and it only survives for a few minutes outside of the body. So fresh, raw, “long pork” presents a possible threat in the case of a mouth sore or stomach ulcer. But I’m guessing that most would cook it before eating it, and I can’t imagine that the virus would survive for long in a corpse.

    Bottom line: If "fag à la Mode" is on the menu for that evening, be sure that it’s well cooked :D

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    1. I never bought into the fable "the virus stays on the plate for a week" ( that from the scare of AIDS workers in the kitchen ), but I certainly would not bet my life on it dying a few minutes outside. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

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    2. Handwashing is cheap and effective. Insist all people (prisoners, guards, citizens) wash often. Disposable gloves/masks for handling "personal items" that may be infectious on their way to incineration helps. Gloves/masks should be stockpiled in Mass Quantities, due to their very-long shelf life and essentially disposable nature. There are occasionally good deals on N95 valved masks and tough nitrile gloves in MassPacks on Amazon (right before an unexpected major disaster, usually) that can be bought after clicking on Jim's sidebar. Consider what a person showing up in Haiti as cholera is really getting going after a solid level 5 tropical storm drops 100 inches of rain in 4 days might need as a good starting point for US festivities.
      pdxr13

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    3. Yes, please order bulk from my links. Consume mass quantities ( "Coneheads" )

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