daily ad

Thursday, July 12, 2018

less fast collapse 1 of 2


LESS FAST COLLAPSE?
*
note: free books.  Plague https://amzn.to/2Nbye0t .  PA https://amzn.to/2N6VQDo .  Zombie https://amzn.to/2usctBR .  PA https://amzn.to/2L10TYR .  EMP https://amzn.to/2JhlCT6
*
The economic collapse began fifty years ago for the US.  It’s imperial collapse began shortly thereafter ( sorry, superpower dude, you can’t lose a large conventional war and then pretend to do better winning against small Caribbean third world countries and still call yourself the ruling power too much longer ).  It’s Oil Age collapse technically started twelve years ago but really picked up steam about five years ago ( the first shock was global Peak Oil when we switched to Fake Fuel, the second was our new inability to stop countries from exiting the PetroDollar system-the system which canceled our  own Peak Oil nearly forty years previously.  And sorry, but going by EROI or net BTU, fracking oil was not a recovery in net energy from the 1970’s, just a recovery in volume ).
*
When you collapse economically, then your energy supply collapses, your complete collapse is baked into the cake.  You can’t pretend things will get better.  You can’t pretend you’ll emulate the Mayan or Roman collapse and see a hundred plus year decline ( meaning, at a minimum we still have fifty years to go along with that half century of decline we’ve already experienced ), because our civilization runs on petroleum and we don’t have fifty years of that left.  How certain experts can call for a centuries long collapse when they themselves push Peak Oil is beyond my comprehension. 
*
Not to fear, this is NOT an article on Peak Oil.  I’ll mention a few Fun Facts, but primarily I’m just ruminating on whether we’ll continue to still have a Less Fast Collapse as we have been, and what that means for preppers.  I’m not advocating for Slow Collapse.  I still think the Olduvai Theory is pretty spot on ( we’ll have the same conventional oil production in 2030 as we did in 1930, this isn’t enough for our population now, and the system has collapsed by this point ).  We’ve seen conventional production decrease at about 6% annually for a decade.  Fake Fuels such as tar sands and fracking oil disguise this rather well.
*
Did you know that in 2006 we saw the last year of new conventional ( high net energy ) oil discoveries matching our usage?  Only six years later we were only discovering new oil at half the rate we were using it.  Five years after that and now we are only discovering 11% of what we are using.  Just about the time the US fracking oil fields go in severe decline, global discoveries of new oil will be about zero.  And since the “proven reserves” in most places are wildly optimistic, guess what happens then.  We can’t “drill baby, drill” either.  Money spent on exploration was MORE in 2016 than 2006, yet we only found half the new oil in the later year.  Granted, inflation, but it wasn’t that huge a factor.  No, the USS Petroleum is already taking on water and due to sink shortly.
*
So, all that was basically me saying, hey, any friggin day now the lack of energy growth is going to absolutely ruin our economy.  It is already ruined, but the stopgap measures, band-aids, and can kicking are nearing their expiration date and one more shock to the system should about do it.  Yet, I still have to ask myself, what if, despite the odds, we do get another five to ten years out of the system before it absolutely breaks?  When our decline turns into a collapse.  When it goes from economic collapse to imperial and civilization collapse.  Personally I don’t think the fracking miracle has more than two years, three at most.
*
And the fracking oil is what actually saved the system.  Yes, all that banker manipulation was needed to keep the trucks rolling, but the trucks also wouldn’t have kept rolling after that credit infusion without the liquid fuel.  Not only are we completely dependent on petroleum and petroleum accessories, it has to be in liquid form.  Canadian tar sands are really actually liquid natural gas in gasoline and transport fuel form.  The fleets must keep moving to keep the system functioning.  Canada didn’t have enough, so we moved into fracking for the volume, and only the banker financial manipulation keeps that fracking industry moving.
*
Come fracking oil volume falling, or banker manipulation stopping due to a financial collapse ( if volume drops first, that will start the banker financial collapse ), our petrol supply sees a 25% contraction.  Try surviving that, over extended vulnerable system.  And by the way, the PetroDollar collapse will usher in a 25-50% oil supply contraction.  So, let’s just suppose that we actually see a best case scenario and the system doesn’t collapse in three years but we keep it going for five to ten.  Highly unlikely, but none of us know how much slack is still in the system that can be triaged.
*
This would be your Less Fast Collapse.  It isn’t in anyone else’s interest to see us succeed in living just a bit longer.  Without our military forcing the PetroDollar down the weakest throats ( which does NOT include Iran, so you do the math on if we’d actually attack them ), the world would have a lot more oil to divide up amongst themselves.  But old power systems sometime fade rather than crash.  It is certainly possible we could fade a few more years than seems possible.  Ten years might not seem that long to you younger minions, but I have serious doubts I’ll live that long.  To me, I might get lucky and not see the collapse.
*
I won’t miss it, certainly.  Who wants to be sixty running around in the desert dodging bullets and bandits?  But I’m also beginning to wonder if my whole hobby and occupation focus was somewhat malformed.  I know, I was just buying insurance and insurance doesn’t pay, it costs.  I don’t doubt the wisdom of preparing.  I merely begin to question if I panicked too much.  Was I too pessimistic?  These are NOT death bed musings.  I regret nothing and still think I’m smarter than the average bear.  No, I just question if my theories, conclusions and analysis was correct.  Yes, I’m more concerned with being correct than with dying early.  Plus, it certainly doesn’t hurt to always question your assumptions so you can refine your plans.  Continued tomorrow.
END
( today's related link https://amzn.to/2u1FSDA )
Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon ad graphics at the top of the page ( or from www.bisonbulk.blogspot.com ).

*** Unless you are in extreme poverty, spend a buck a month here, by the above donation methods or mail me some cash/check/money order or buy a book. If you don't do Kindle books, send me the money and I'll e-mail it to you in a PDF file.  If you donated, you may request books no charge.   My e-mail is: jimd303@reagan.com  My address is: James M Dakin, 181 W Bullion Rd #12, Elko NV 89801-4184
*** Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for barely above Mere Book Money, so do your part.*** junk land under a grand *  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com *** Wal-Mart wheat***Amazon Author Page
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there




24 comments:

  1. Imagine from my viewpoint. After having served four years of a six year commission I got out of the military in 76. Knowing for absolute certainty that teotwaki was no more than 5-10 years down the road...
    Here I am , 42 years down the road from prepping for that event...still wondering when ! Best thing however, is that I know for certain I'm good to last out whatever for the time I'm likely to live.
    Or not...

    Even tho I just received the paperwork from SS for Medicare signup. Broken as it is, my body is probably in better shape than most every fat assed prepper out there. Excepting of course our Lord Goldie locks of Helko har har. Yet you declare fourteen yrs. my junior that life is short for you ?
    Laughing my skinny ass off...

    No worries Jim, watched the Orange Oricle this morning further destroying NATO. That dude spouted more lies of his greatness leaving the rest of the world shaking their collective heads ( excepting trumptards )
    Monday heading to his private Meetup with the boss, for the final nails in our coffins ???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I only count my life expectancy so short ( back to pre-Great Depression average age of about 61 ) because there will be effectively zero medical care available to me. Look at the crap show the medical industry turned into just in the last five years.
      *
      Trump is still acting like he is on a TV show or by a wrestling rink. All about the sparkle, not the reality. Once again, we get the leader we deserve :) What is Trump but a second gen copy of Reagan? Look pretty and tell the folks what they want to hear ( and I say that loving Reagan as the last good prez ).

      Delete
    2. I thought your presidents attack on NATO was hilarious. NATO should have disbanded when Russia collapsed. In a recent NATO exercise, German soldiers were fielded with broomsticks with which to pretend they were rifles, and Stock standard civilian Mercedes and "these are IFV". And Trump is right, if Russia is supplying gas to Germany puts Germany at Russias mercy.

      Delete
    3. I find the Russian Gas Dependency hilarious, given how we are 50% reliant on foreign oil. Hell, perhaps they should ask Russia to take over occupation duties. They would clear out the Muzzies double quick.

      Delete
    4. You'll like this. Last week my wife was working on a book that mentioned the army has a specific regulation on the spacing between cornrows. LOL Yeah, you read that right.

      Delete
    5. Don't get me started on those monkey molesters. :)

      Delete
  2. What is your take on the opening up of the east coast offshore and anwar north slope area to drilling? I think that there may be a bunch of oil that has been hidden in those areas that are now in play. The north slope may have a low ROE but the east coast should be in the 10 to 1 range.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When Peak Oil was formulated, the US ( lower 48 )was the most extensively explored region in the world. That has never changed. Hence, we already found what is to be found. Anywhere else might have oil, but it is far below economically to extract-fracking, deep well, tar sand, etc. And new areas opened to drilling is a cash grab by gov for licences, or a stock market swindle.

      Delete
  3. Yes Jim, my same quandry as described. I sit on crates of kit waiting for the bugle call. It may be a long drawn out slow stair step down contraction as a prelude to any meaningful collapse. Even so, as in venezuala, etc. There may be a lot of other sideshow events to cause you problems at your level that is not of a total collapse/appocalypse/zombie scenario that we know and anticipate. Social justice warrior uprisings or bad management practices by the government and related supporting cast members can be enough to give you hard time of it. Plan and prepare anyway, it is still a noble calling and righteous hobby.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Even without the zombie outbreak, yes, noting but one thing after another. Right now, the medical industry implodes, endangering all of us. Tomorrow will bring a similar joyous event.

      Delete
    2. You Old Wolves need kith and kin.
      Take a cub under your tutelage and upon your death, bequeath to them (that haven't had the time due to circumstances of birth) the spoils and preps of a long and hard life.
      If the cub is Kin, all the better. If Kith (tribe), it is still good, and your work was not in vain.
      And if it all ends tomorrow, you have Tribe.

      Delete
    3. Except nowadays, you're a dirty old man trying to homo his ass. And, pray tell, where does one find a non dumb-ass? Who wants to prep? A very good idea. But practical?

      Delete
  4. I never did understand using petroleum to grow food in order to convert it into fuel. Especially when the technology is there to make a large portion of the alcohol fuel from sewage lagoons.
    We supposedly have all this natural gas to use, and the conversion is not hard on most vehicles once the fuel tank is mounted and plumbed, but outside of a few metro bus lines, no one is doing it.
    It just seems like the crash is engineered and designed to happen. And probably sooner than later.

    The sad thing is Jim, most of us old farts that share your mentality are in better shape than most of the young whippersnappers running around today. I am 47 and can still outwork kids half my age. I also do without 24 hour cable and video games.
    Those kids will get real twitchy once the grid goes down and they have to walk a mile for the first time in their lives.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And, we walked to school uphill both ways barefoot :) No, I see exactly what you are saying. When I was at the food bank I'd get 20 year old volunteers I outworked easily. Course, I outworked most folks anyway. Which has absolutely nothing to do with my decrepitude now :) And I'd STILL outwork them, gimpy foot and diminished lung capacity, if I was silly enough. Mentality and conditioning, made to order for the apocalypse.

      Delete
  5. “Ten years might not seem that long to you younger minions, but I have serious doubts I’ll live that long.”


    You’ve alluded to this before, but is there some kind of genetic problem that would cause you to think this? Because early 60’s does seem kind of young to check out. That said, I can totally relate. I am not aware of any genetic deficiencies that would keep me from living a long life. But I just turned 54, and with the way that I feel now, I can’t for the life of me understand how anyone even lives into their late 60’s; let alone 80’s or even 90’s.

    I suppose that minions can rejoice in the fact that most of them probably have a better shot than many; the bar on survivalists having been lowered, quicker than Michael Jackson was lowering little kids pants at Wonderland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. See my reply to Spud, to answer the longevity issue. Lowered standards, for sure. Perhaps not as quick as Michael, even if close :)

      Delete
  6. I still think the slow collapse view is all about looking at things on too large of a scale (geographic). History may say the collapse took 100 years, but for me all the key events may be packed into a few years or even months. Does me no good if Norway is still functioning as if all is okay. Druid Dude was wicked smart in many ways, but would probably wax philosophically about the importance of considering geological time scales as a semi truck was barreling down on him. The survivalist just gets out of the way.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When our time is over, they can call it X number of years collapse, but as we've seen it's already been fifty where nothing fundamentally changed as far as individual survival on a broad scale ( not counting increased crime and murder rate, for instance ). The actual collapse, as opposed to decline, will start when the guerrilla wars and civil wars and invasions start leaving bodies in the streets uncollected. Or a disease epidemic after our medical industry declines much more. I guess a good way to look at it is those exponential yeast. At 11:59 there is still room in the vat but at 12 they've overloaded the place. The Druid Dude was far more intelligent and widely read that I. His only sin was being unable to look past his optimism. It queered up otherwise rational thinking.

      Delete
  7. When the British Empire was winding down the US war gamed US v British Empire / Commonwealth. The rationale was US wanted to be top dog and declining powers rarely, if ever, go peacefully. The War game concluded a stale mate with British Navy making the difference. From memory it was called War Game Red. The British negotiated a peaceful transition to the US. Hence the rhetoric about special friendship.

    The reason I mention that is because if the US Empire is in retreat then other nations / interests will seek to be top dog. They may try to put the proverbial boot into the US to signal to other nations that they are serious players. I don't see a peaceful transition. The US isn't tired of the mantle of empire and unlike the British the US isn't depleted of their fighting men and treasure and infrastructure isn't destroyed via two horrific world wars. (yeah infrastructure is falling apart due to lack of maintenance & myriad numbers of other issues but they all lack the "in your face" of a world war)

    I hope I'm wrong & my preps prove to be nothing more than an eccentric hobby

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The US has the unfortunate experience of winning a nuclear war. Hence a false sense of invulnerability. I say unfortunate for all of us that are going to suffer because of it. The odds of the US going peacefully are on par with UFO's bombing us. I can't see us going back to isolationism because globalization is buying the hookers and blow.

      Delete
  8. I guess I'll say something about the Trumpster before you post your next post. Nato is no different than Hamilton or Lion King or any other "performance". A Show! Every one of those fuckers answer to someone behind the curtain directing the show! The rich get richer and poor get poorer and the middle class (what's left of it) blames everyone on both ends. When is everyone going to wake up to the fact that rich fucks rule the world and don't care about you! You ain't going to make America great again by voting!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trump made us feel good ( like voting does ). Now that the shows over, prep like there is no tomorrow because there might not be. The only way to MAGA is revolution, and then it will just be for your region, not the whole country as that idea is toast ( hump you very much, Yankee jagoff bendejo pukes ). And please, don't revolt. It is illegal. Wait for the gov to fall on its own, then it isn't illegal anymore.

      Delete
  9. I feel like the last three to five years in my region was a lesson in continuous decline. Crappy jobs that us oldsters didn't want but couldn't get hired for. People who used to be snotty to me all of a sudden begging to rent out my lower-priced room for rent. Middle class people getting desperate as they lost their businesses, etc. As for me, I no longer have the house but camp out at the bug out trailer. Everyone I know is financially played out. I'm just running through the motions of living extremely frugally, taking nothing for granted, learning new skills, starting to break into my stash of stored food. Intuitively I feel we are so close to the end of the rope I can taste it. I'm older, a little wiser. Have less incentive and a lot more pessimism. People will run roughshod over you, especially as you get older.nobody gives a crap about anyone else probably cuz they're still chasing that dollar and can't make it work. Yet the cognitive dissonance prevails, the distractions continue to keep people entertained enough to not change their lives or see any danger signs. What is wrong with most people? Is it my paranoia that allowed me to start acting on prepping? Can't they tell it's all falling apart? Even the Walmart has huge gaping spaces between fewer and fewer aisles. They aren't shipping back unsold seasonal items but selling them on discount aisle for pennies on the dollar. I hope I can gather the fortitude to keep plugging away when it gets really bad. Feel like I've been busting hump for so long I can't remember. But nothing gets easier or cheaper. It just continues to go downhill while prices make my head pop when I go to buy something. It's all just a matter of time. . .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still a cloud of unicorn glitter farts hanging around town here in mining country. Thing is, when it goes here it will go very quick and very fast. Yuppie Scum-ville one day and half the businesses closed the next. Even ignoring the rest of the world, we are a friggin mining town, within an hours drive of mining ghost towns. Folks don't learn from 50-100 year old history, let alone longer time frame. Our last bad recession in town was 25 years ago and nobody learned from that one. No one wants to learn. Sorry to hear of your circumstances. That bites the big one. I've been there a few times. While not trying to be presumptuous, let me know if there is any advice I can give you. E-mail me if desired. But good luck regardless.

      Delete

I must moderate-trust me. Criticize ideas, NOT the people behind them. Be civil. You will be warned twice and the third time just deleted. No N-Bombs. If you disagree with me, you must praise my hair first.