less fast collapse 1 of 2

LESS FAST COLLAPSE?
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The economic collapse began fifty years ago for the US.  It’s imperial collapse began shortly thereafter ( sorry, superpower dude, you can’t lose a large conventional war and then pretend to do better winning against small Caribbean third world countries and still call yourself the ruling power too much longer ).  It’s Oil Age collapse technically started twelve years ago but really picked up steam about five years ago ( the first shock was global Peak Oil when we switched to Fake Fuel, the second was our new inability to stop countries from exiting the PetroDollar system-the system which canceled our  own Peak Oil nearly forty years previously.  And sorry, but going by EROI or net BTU, fracking oil was not a recovery in net energy from the 1970’s, just a recovery in volume ).

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When you collapse economically, then your energy supply collapses, your complete collapse is baked into the cake.  You can’t pretend things will get better.  You can’t pretend you’ll emulate the Mayan or Roman collapse and see a hundred plus year decline ( meaning, at a minimum we still have fifty years to go along with that half century of decline we’ve already experienced ), because our civilization runs on petroleum and we don’t have fifty years of that left.  How certain experts can call for a centuries long collapse when they themselves push Peak Oil is beyond my comprehension. 

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Not to fear, this is NOT an article on Peak Oil.  I’ll mention a few Fun Facts, but primarily I’m just ruminating on whether we’ll continue to still have a Less Fast Collapse as we have been, and what that means for preppers.  I’m not advocating for Slow Collapse.  I still think the Olduvai Theory is pretty spot on ( we’ll have the same conventional oil production in 2030 as we did in 1930, this isn’t enough for our population now, and the system has collapsed by this point ).  We’ve seen conventional production decrease at about 6% annually for a decade.  Fake Fuels such as tar sands and fracking oil disguise this rather well.

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Did you know that in 2006 we saw the last year of new conventional ( high net energy ) oil discoveries matching our usage?  Only six years later we were only discovering new oil at half the rate we were using it.  Five years after that and now we are only discovering 11% of what we are using.  Just about the time the US fracking oil fields go in severe decline, global discoveries of new oil will be about zero.  And since the “proven reserves” in most places are wildly optimistic, guess what happens then.  We can’t “drill baby, drill” either.  Money spent on exploration was MORE in 2016 than 2006, yet we only found half the new oil in the later year.  Granted, inflation, but it wasn’t that huge a factor.  No, the USS Petroleum is already taking on water and due to sink shortly.

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So, all that was basically me saying, hey, any friggin day now the lack of energy growth is going to absolutely ruin our economy.  It is already ruined, but the stopgap measures, band-aids, and can kicking are nearing their expiration date and one more shock to the system should about do it.  Yet, I still have to ask myself, what if, despite the odds, we do get another five to ten years out of the system before it absolutely breaks?  When our decline turns into a collapse.  When it goes from economic collapse to imperial and civilization collapse.  Personally I don’t think the fracking miracle has more than two years, three at most.

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And the fracking oil is what actually saved the system.  Yes, all that banker manipulation was needed to keep the trucks rolling, but the trucks also wouldn’t have kept rolling after that credit infusion without the liquid fuel.  Not only are we completely dependent on petroleum and petroleum accessories, it has to be in liquid form.  Canadian tar sands are really actually liquid natural gas in gasoline and transport fuel form.  The fleets must keep moving to keep the system functioning.  Canada didn’t have enough, so we moved into fracking for the volume, and only the banker financial manipulation keeps that fracking industry moving.

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Come fracking oil volume falling, or banker manipulation stopping due to a financial collapse ( if volume drops first, that will start the banker financial collapse ), our petrol supply sees a 25% contraction.  Try surviving that, over extended vulnerable system.  And by the way, the PetroDollar collapse will usher in a 25-50% oil supply contraction.  So, let’s just suppose that we actually see a best case scenario and the system doesn’t collapse in three years but we keep it going for five to ten.  Highly unlikely, but none of us know how much slack is still in the system that can be triaged.

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This would be your Less Fast Collapse.  It isn’t in anyone else’s interest to see us succeed in living just a bit longer.  Without our military forcing the PetroDollar down the weakest throats ( which does NOT include Iran, so you do the math on if we’d actually attack them ), the world would have a lot more oil to divide up amongst themselves.  But old power systems sometime fade rather than crash.  It is certainly possible we could fade a few more years than seems possible.  Ten years might not seem that long to you younger minions, but I have serious doubts I’ll live that long.  To me, I might get lucky and not see the collapse.

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I won’t miss it, certainly.  Who wants to be sixty running around in the desert dodging bullets and bandits?  But I’m also beginning to wonder if my whole hobby and occupation focus was somewhat malformed.  I know, I was just buying insurance and insurance doesn’t pay, it costs.  I don’t doubt the wisdom of preparing.  I merely begin to question if I panicked too much.  Was I too pessimistic?  These are NOT death bed musings.  I regret nothing and still think I’m smarter than the average bear.  No, I just question if my theories, conclusions and analysis was correct.  Yes, I’m more concerned with being correct than with dying early.  Plus, it certainly doesn’t hurt to always question your assumptions so you can refine your plans.  Continued tomorrow.

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