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Saturday, January 6, 2018

hazard a guess


HAZARD A GUESS

It has been some time since I did a “forecast for the new year” article.  I got them so disastrously wrong that it wasn’t worth either of our times, my writing or your reading.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad I had done them.  How else am I going to learn humility other than having my writing rubbed in my face?  I don’t feel bad about them, as it is far better to be extra paranoid than timid and optimistic, but there just wasn’t any need to continue to guess wrong.  I’m TOO paranoid, at least as far as my predictions.  We don’t need a reminder of that every year.

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I have enjoyed Kunstler’s end year predictions-he wasn’t really pointing to specifics more than he was cataloging the forest trends we might have forgotten about as we watched too close to a single tree or two.  But this year, he seemed a bit…off.  There wasn’t much except a reminder that The Long Emergency ( his phrase for the boat tipping over the waterfall ) was picking up steam.  It was almost as if he finally joined most of us in being baffled, bewildered and bum humped about this whole futurism thing.  Simply, crap don’t make any sense anymore as the system has gone far beyond any credible miracle extension.

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Okay, timing the collapse has always been a fools errand.  It is so fraught with peril that even fools should know not to rush in.  I simply follow the old Cold War global thermonuclear war preparedness slogan that it is better to be a year early than a minute late.  I allow no emergency to go unworried.  That doesn’t mean I panic at everything.  If you want that nonsense, the Doom Porn, the wannabe politician up in Idaho has a multitude of ad heavy websites for you to visit.  I think he very well understands that if every event in the news portends catastrophe, then in the end nothing is a reliable indicator, but he is following PT Barnum’s business advice and it must be paying the bills. 

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No, I merely look at everything as if it’s the last thing.  I just assume the worst every day ( big picture, not my personal life.  Personally 2017 was about my best year ever outside my kids being born, but that blessed event was marred by the Baby Momma surviving the process ), but I hardly panic.  Why should I?  When the crap implodes, it will in a manner none of us expects and the only thing you can do is adapt.  Most training is for the last war anyway.  I just look at my daily disposition as being mentally prepared for crap to suddenly go sideways and surprise me.  The only true way to survive what is ahead is isolation and I doubt any of us are going there.

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Now, even if timing the collapse is impossible, I think if you always assumed today is the last one of “semi-normalcy” for the Empire, predications are mostly harmless ( and speaking of “Empire“, isn’t it a bit humorous that Disney, whose Suits are so moronic having chugged from the PC chalice that they have no ability to invest wisely in the propaganda they churn out, decided to remain the Star Wars villains?  It isn’t like the franchise was ever some holy writ in stone masterpiece, and I forecast its demise at the sale of LucasFilm-probably the only prediction I’ve gotten right so far!-but you do NOT rewrite history and expect FanBoys to accept it.  How stupid are these idiots, seriously? ).

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Unfortunately, nobody is really doing predictions anymore.  Or, at least not credible ones.  I think everyone is embarrassed.  I mean, you can’t just say “expect more of the same next year”.  That has turned out to be a pretty good guess for the last many years, but your readers look at it like a cop-out and a pussy move.  You gots ta give them what they want!  Ticket sales demand it.  So, just to be contrary, I’ll go ahead and give it a go, once more.  I’ll predict this year.  I’ll probably be wrong.

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Keep in mind, I’m always right about general trends but specifics and timing is NOT my forte.  The following is not meant as investing advice ( sarcasm ).  2018 is going to be the year of energy induced economic collapse.  There.  Happy?  No, I’m not being vague or generalizing.  I realize we have been in that state since 2006.  What I mean specifically is that either the PetroDollar finally implodes or the fracking financing is interrupted and that sudden loss of energy being delivered is a huge economic shock that starts the whole economy domino tipping. 

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I understand this is NOT a prediction anyone needs to go out on a limb for, other than calling a specific year.  So here is my rationale.  If even Kunstler, a pioneer in the Peak Oil Economics field, is getting weary of the year after year non-events playing out as forecast, I’d hazard to guess that we’ve seen the last year of Business As Usual, the last year the can was kicked down the road.  Thin evidence, I know.  Ol’ Jim K could just be tired of writing.  As an author, he strikes me as someone who feels his craft is enjoyable.  Well, he DID strike me.  Now it seems he’s just really old and weary, just tired of continuously scrambling for a buck or two.

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But, hell, what else do you want?  A functioning crystal ball?  It sure as crap didn’t work for Nostradamus.  This is what you get when you rely on me to give you predictions!  Okay, mostly kidding.  We both know going in I’ll be incorrect.  But it is still fun to do.  It is really enough to simply know This Suckers Going Down.  Nobody, and I mean No Damn Body, should be relying on another persons prediction to light a fire under their ass.  Any idiot can understand the math.  Overpopulation plus contracting resources.  If you want to deny, that is not the same as failing to understand.  You should already have panicked long ago and the only variable is how prepared can you get.

END ( today's related link http://amzn.to/2CvkAna )
 
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16 comments:

  1. "I allow no emergency to go unworried." - nice turn of phrase!

    You may be in good company, Jim. One of the blokes I listen to on YouTube is Jim Rogers. His Alabama accent is soft on the ear and according to the internet, he's worth USD300 million. For years, he's been asked about timing and politely refuses to commit himself. Last year was the exception. He said (not verbatim), "the end of this year - no later than 2018...write it down."

    I'm glad you're doing well! Why couldn't we have been this happy when we were young and strong?

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    1. Because when we were young and strong all we worried about was getting laid :)

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  2. Every day, for the last decade or 2, has felt like the last day to me and I think this is taking it's toll. I go about my day to day activities and aspire as I always have. But I also am aware of the gargantuan problem that looms over everything.

    The rotten assed US gov't.

    It has destroyed everything in the worst way possible and I see no way out of it except for catastrophic destruction from top to bottom with the survivors, if any, starting anew.

    The brain (gov't) became cancerous and infected the blood (citizenry) and now the entire body is writhing uncontrollably.

    I truly wish I lived a lot further away from everything than I currently do. I'm too old for what lies ahead. But I'll try anyway. I have to.

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    1. Well, damn, you put it like that and I'M getting depressed :). I don't think your feelings are unique. Even if a lot of folks cannot articulate it, that feeling is probably widespread. The system is rotted and broken and so why should we even try. The only difference between survivalists and unknowing sheeple is we pencil it out to the logical end and they cannot conceive of that. But all feel the same-some might aspire regardless, some might just not try and suck 24/7 to brain candy to forget. All know their tribe has forsaken them so they drop out ( if only philosophically ) one way or another. Perhaps prepping is the WASP way of dropping out. Still keeping the work ethic alive, just switching the benefactor from old tribal chief to the new more immediate tribe of family and friends.

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  3. Don't fret the timing. SURVIVALISTS are in the game for the duration of their lives. SURVIVALISTS prepare for any and all comers, not focused on petty details, (unlike pretty pony yuppie scum-keep things the same forever kids) SURVIVALISTS are on a lifetime journey, even until an old geezer. (makes them even more formidable-nothing to lose) SURVIVALIST may also contribute even more than any one else by passing on wisdom, as well as their immense aquired kit to another generation if they pass litmus tests, whether they're family-kin or the kids down the road showing promise as upstarts. Prepare for off list events like asteroid strikes or lizard alien invasions as well as queer sounding 'weather events' and it'll be all "good to go, SIR!"
    well done as usual Jim, great hair again today!

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    1. Thank you. Yes, do beware the lizard alien invaders. I don't stress that enough :)

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    2. Probably the worst aspect of collapse for me is the unavoidable massive and continuous assault by the freeloaders that will comb out from the urban centers looking for food and whatever. They will be killed in mass by us ruralists but the whole idea of having to stay on guard all the time to protect what is mine is off putting.

      We're currently about 40 miles from a major metropolis and that is way too close for comfort. We've been actively searching for affordable land that is 100 miles from major cities but the costs are unbelievably high - unaffordable. I sort of feel we are being forced into a situation we do not want to be in. I almost wish I wasn't aware. Then reality thinking comes back into focus and that horrible feeling sweeps over me again. We have food, water, small tribe and potentially even larger tribe, so we're better prepped than some but still, the whole thing seems so avoidable and unnecessary.

      The solution is so simple, and obvious.
      Stop the fucking stealing.
      All of it.
      In a world where stealing is the norm almost everyone is a criminal.

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    3. Stealing is normal. We humans are programmed for it. Remember, Opportunistic Predators. What you are seeing is the system no longer reigning in the theft by the masses, and itself stealing from those it is tasked with protecting. It is just a phase of the collapse and hence has zero solution. Not that I don't feel your frustration ( I've shared it often ). I'm 200 miles from a major metropolis, but I'm just as screwed by the locals. You probably aren't looking in a poor enough/high crime enough area, which is its own set of problems. Me, I'm just a dumbass-I have the land where I'd be safe and won't leave ( my whole life living with wives who hated me, I finally find a good one, yes, I'm staying with her ).

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  4. Star Wars started to decline even under Lucas, after the third release, Return Of The Jedi. Total camp, and the writers thought they could woo the audience with more special effects in hopes that no one would notice that it was a polished turd. But the latest Disney versions aren’t even worth seeing. Total SJW crap, complete with “Mary Sue’s” and magical minorities.

    The third Mad Max in the series, Beyond Thunderdome, sucked green burro peckers. But at least it kept in check with the proper time-line of what one would expect after certain stages within a collapse (i.e. no more fossil fuel vehicles, firearms,etc.). Apparently, third time is not a charm when it comes to movies.

    I can’t convince myself to go and see this latest Mad Max. But best I can tell, it features more arms than a third world army; in a friggin post oil age!

    I don’t think I can part with anymore of my money to the modern hollywood crowd, and will just stick to the old classics from now on. MeTV is free folks.

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    1. The last Mad Max was, literally, a chase the whole movie where they raced to point A and then turned around and returned. And that was it, as far as I could tell. It was barely worth the $1.60 at RedBox. I got all excited ( don't ask me why except a great trailer ) about the Atomic Blond-first disc I rented in months. Total crap. Girl chop suey the whole movie. Not even boobs saved that one. Netflix has the Godfathers and the Lethal Weapons. LW was leftist crap before it was cool-Cali gun control hoo-ray prior to the first semi ban. And even those are far better than the crap today. I know Netflix won't be around too much longer, and it will be back to MeTV reruns of Batman and Grade Z monster films and other turds, but at least you know it is just escapist fun instead of indoctrination.

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    2. Sounds as if it was even less realistic than I had initially thought, and just another film in which the producers were hoping that the special effects would distract the viewers long enough to not notice that not much effort was put into the script. I had long since tired of Charlize Theron’s terrible attitude by the time this movie came out, so it was easy to take a pass on. And Mad Max just isn’t Mad Max without Mel Gibson, bless his politically incorrect heart :D

      It’s long since been obvious that hollywood has run out of original ideas, after they started remaking everything under the sun starting in the 80’s. To make matters worse, the remakes usually receive a PC makeover, and suck!

      I haven’t been to a movie theater since the late 90’s. I watch almost no television anymore, and when I do, it’s usually the classic stuff. Just can’t stomach the modern crap.

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    3. For me, it seemed the Writers Union strike ( coincidentally the same time of the economic collapse, 2007/8 ) sealed the fate of Hollywood. After that, it was just special effects ONLY and no writing. There had been a combo for the longest time ( Star Wars, Independence Day ), but after that date zero effort went into scripts. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if a computer program did the scripts now. Just like now, no more dedicated actresses will come along ( before, you were a bimbo, but at least you had to try as you humped the old fat producers-and that wasn't exploitation as much as it was women's fault to begin with. Just like nowadays, you don't have to get married to get sex. The pioneer to give away the milk or "enhance" her acting resume spoiled it for all of them afterwards ).

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  5. If I ever lose my LOL...then at most I'll only have free over the air TV.
    Probably only touch base at free internet outlets when I get near one.
    In other words, likely I'll go dark...

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    1. Exactly my plan. It is nice to have, but now I'm ready to return to the 80's, comms wise.

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  6. ME TV for me too! Of note is the westerns, as the genre is usually based on right wrong themes with strong manly characters un seen in this century's script writing. Also take away's is the pre last century living conditions-kernels of knowledge to be gleened here. Like living with no electricity, man-handling horses, always gun ready, Etc. Etc. I, personally am ready for an EMP to send our asses to 1870. good times! LORD BISON IS RIGHT! Gather around children, listen up!

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    1. I came along too late for westerns, other than Bonanza. I seem to remember liking it. Yeh, you could argue that the "strong manly-men" meme was itself propaganda. Yet, since all youth must be brainwashed into the tribal values, it is going to happen one way or another. '70's on, that brainwashing went from traditional ( ie-all of recorded history and before ) to New Kulture Toxic. Propaganda isn't bad, it just depends on the type ( ps-there are historical precidents. In empires past the decline phase was full of similar New & Improved Kulture attempts ).

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