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Wednesday, August 24, 2016

less evil-the die off 1 of 3


LESS EVIL-THE DIE OFF
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note: for those with KU, a decent read touching on energy EROI:
click here "Briton's Coming Energy Crisis"
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I was going to title this article along the lines of “the lesser of evils” but I didn’t want you thinking this was about the upcoming presidential election.  I mean, what else is there to talk about?  One devil spawn with Parkinson’s Disease, just who you want with the nuclear launch codes, and a liberal New Yorker dressed up in Republican Big Boy Pants who has lied about everything-business as usual.  The lesser evil is obviously The Foul Haired One.  But since elections are nothing more than rigged eye candy for the weak minded, we will just have to wait and see if Toupee Mussolini or Evil Epilepsy are put on the throne.  There is little reason to talk about it other than to laugh uproariously.  No, what we shall discuss today is the whole concept of the die-off and how it might be wishful thinking covering up the more probable reality of an anarchist devolution which will much more problematic to your health.

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Okay, here is the standard survivalist paradigm.  An asteroid hit’s the earth, or Yellowstone blows.  Neither is improbable.  Nobody saw coming the rock that hit in Russia a few years ago, so the movie “Armageddon” scenario is plain delusional.  And the super volcano has seen strange behavior recently like animals fleeing in mass and fairly large land upwelling.  Both will happen but nobody is sure of the timing.  Both events are high possibility low probability.  The point here being, a sudden civilization ending event occurs.  This can include EMP’s or solar flares, the previously discredited Y2K, etc.  The other accepted events have a slightly longer time frame but not enough to keep peace or order.  A terrorist attack demolishes the Saudi oil processing facility and within a few weeks the global petroleum flow seizes up ( the Saudi scenario is most plausible as it takes place in a very unstable area with a rather centralized location-but anything that takes one fifth  of the global energy supply offline qualifies ).  Or, a major bank implodes from the weight of its derivatives overexposure ( which at this point could be almost any one of them-even if Deutch Bank looks to be the current favorite ).  You can’t actually believe the bail-out will succeed next time, can you?  The fundamentals are exponentially worse than last time.  Or, a major weather event ( and take your pick on those-I’m not necessarily endorsing Gore Warming but it is obvious that the Gulf Stream has already broken down and hence the New Normal is severe weather happenings ) repeats Katrina or Fukishima and the cities with Obammy’s coddled minorities erupt in riots that spread and are uncontainable.  Note to Blacks: remember how Saddam was given the green light to invade Kuwait?  Then we turned on him?  No?  That’s okay, those of us evaluating events with Monkey Minds can’t comprehend your Lizard Brain mindset.  And primal violence will rule during the die-off.  Perhaps you will prevail anyway.

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Here is my point.  All of the collapse scenarios presuppose a rather rapid collapse and die-off.  We actually can’t survive in another type of collapse ( which is a partial reason to mock and ridicule those such as The Druid Dude with his 300 year ultra uber slow tree hugging permaculture collapse-we hate what we fear ).  Think about it.  How could our limited supplies survive a five year civil war?  Forget just surviving physically.  Here we are with faction fighting faction, one group ( based on race or political affiliation or geological occupation, etc. ) allying with another one week then attacking them the next, a brutal guerrilla war just as bad as the Balkans since far too many religions and races and Rice Bowl groups ( economic security from a similar source-the iron rice bowl in China is the name for that ) are/were forced into the country and bribed to assimilate but without surplus there is no reason for any of us to cooperate or keep us from hurting each other.  If that goes on too long, your chances of survival drop to zero.  If not from the constant combat than from running out of supplies.

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THAT is why a sudden collapse is so necessary.  All our planning presupposes it.  Without a compressed time frame you can’t survive.  You need to hide out and let the supply-less quickly die off so you can emerge and fight for control of the resources necessary to supply you with a post-oil means of livelihood.  You only have so much food to sustain you before you must grow/raise more ( remember the analogy of eating off food in the lifeboat until you find an island to farm/fish? ).  If the current levels of population do not shrink quick enough, you can’t commandeer the means of production with your limited force.  War is notoriously slow in population reduction ( look at the thirty years it took to reduce many areas of Germany by 90% ).  And if warfare is constant, for years, you WILL run out quickly ( and, no, that is not a valid argument for semi-auto’s.  Your ammunition is still a weak link and you simply can’t stock enough if you Pray And Spray ).  You really, really need a quick die-off to stretch out your limited supplies.

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Note that I am NOT saying a civil war is far more likely than a sudden die-off.  I’m firmly convinced when the waterfall collapse picks up enough speed it will be over quickly thereafter ( just as the Seneca Cliff Italian dude postulates ).  We might see a period of modern armed factional fighting within a framework of modern nation state nominal control.  But it won’t last for years as it has in Africa, Eastern Europe or the middle east.  Those conflicts were supplied by interested super power states.  The coming conflict won’t see an oil rich re-supply by an industrial state.  Already the Chinese economy is imploding and the US military is incapable of any action outside garrison duty.  Only Russia seems a viable survivor, and they are more traditionally defense orientated.  Without a competing dangerous power they will tend to their immediate area ( good news for the US, probably not so good for China with its shared border.  She is buddy, buddy with Russia now but that is because of the threat from America.  Russia knows who her traditional enemy is and will strike as needed when advantageous ). 

Continued Tomorrow.

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23 comments:

  1. This is why There is no limit on the amount of calories to stockpile. Practical limits occur, but a 10 year food supply is not as crazy as some would make it out to be. That's how long the civil war in Angola screwed up food supplies there.

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    1. I had to get pretty creative just on a five year supply. I can't imagine having the room for a ten. Of course, that was for two and a half people which translates to a single person twelve year supply.

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    2. Anonymous is right.
      Store all you can. And then find places to store more.
      But you are right too Jim, we can not store enough.
      We have to resupply someway, somehow.
      Trade will continue at ruinous prices for the least morsel but it will continue. So trade goods might be worth while, but only if they are easily fungible and smaller and lighter than an equivalent value of other supplies while being easier to hid and safer to spend.
      The other option it to figure out how to source food and supplies during the middle of the outbreak of total anarchy and civil war without being seen as a target by others who would want such food too.
      There are no perfect solutions. Some might be better than others - distant locations well out of the main lines of travel reduce the threat of violence, combined with a good early warning system you can escape/harass/fight any invaders. Cached supplies widely spread will also help.
      A way to produce food that will be overlooked by most will also help.
      But it still might not be enough.
      Got to try.
      Lets hope for a fast die off while doing what we can (My dream is for a CME or Xray burst to just skim part of the globe like east asia and Africa leaving those areas mostly empty for colonization by the survivors in the Americas and Europe etc. I feel ghoulish for hoping for such but it seems to me to be the best chance for the human race and western civilization.

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    3. No reason to feel ghoulish. We are programed to hate and kill all other tribes. Embrace it.

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    4. Oh, it is still ghoulish. But it is practical too- lots of resources there and the cultures/ civilizations there have historically tended to be less progressive in both tolerance and technology. I see technology as the only real way to avoid longer term human race extinction. (A way for advanced life to get off the planet and colonize new planets).

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    5. I tend to side with the Uber-tree huggers on this one. Technology is not the same as functional, common sense tool use. Technology has too large of an infrastructure base to support on dwindling energy availability.

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  2. We are used to conflicts dragging on for years. What most don't realize is that's only possible because of outside supplies. In a more global situation one can imagine all the high tech goodies being exhausted pretty quickly with no chance of resupply.

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    1. Its surprising how little people realize about logistics. "Magically appear on shelves" is the norm.

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    2. Armies travel on their stomachs, has always been true. The armies can often get foods from their conquered territories but scorched earth tactics may make such hazardous to rely on.
      More people have starved because of armies than any weather event(s).

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    3. Just think every thing to be sold this Christmas is in transit or a warehouse already! Drones, cruise, and ICBM's primary function is destroy logistical supply. he who has the most supplies win 90% of the time.

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    4. Hmmm... IIRC there have been lots of conflicts that went on for a very long time prior to the industrial revolution. It is less a matter of outside supplies than the ill will between parties - admittedly out and out war like WW2 and Korea etc. would be less likely as outside support dwindles to nothing, instead it will be more like the ongoing conflicts between the Scottish and Irish clans before the UK conquered them. A few raids here, a few raids there, occasionally an entire village burned and all the children taken as slaves, etc.
      Skirmishes by and large with only the rare token large scale pitched battle to try to settle things once and for all (usually followed by genocide if successful).

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    5. Living off the land is always a crap shoot for armies. The one that figures a work-around will almost always win the war.
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      Forget high tech logistics killers, worry about simple fuel and replacement parts being unavailable.
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      Any military activity at the Agricultural Age and above has logistics issues.

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    6. Ghangis Khan, (spelling??) used to send out fellas 12mths before his armies to kill and or run of the big herds of grazeing animals so as his horses had plenty of grass to eat. Aussie

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    7. His empire worked great. Until he overshot his grazing terrain. Built up areas, as opposed to steppes, don't work as well.

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  3. Finally! Someone who gets what I mean when I say preppers are optimists.... How long has it been since we started hearing "Store shelves in Venezuela are bare"? They're not dropping like flies, and they weren't as obese as Americans. Sure, the die-off won't take decades, but I expect it will take months if not a couple years. And hungry mob vs. lone prepper is not good odds. So, like you say, don't be where the masses of people are, and be well-stocked, while looking like you aren't.

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    1. Ol' Remus says it best. Better than all other writers combined. Stay away from crowds.

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    2. I understand what your saying but its not a total collapse its economic collapse in a nationalized economy. A die off event requires no one has the surplus to sell or the ability to transport it.

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  4. “Forget just surviving physically.  Here we are with faction fighting faction, one group ( based on race or political affiliation or geological occupation, etc. “


    Of the above, aside from sheer numbers alone overwhelming you, the least threatening demographic above is the big city, government dependent, leftists (Hate guns, so no way to defend themselves, and total government dependence). This group will be the first to die, be it starvation, or slaughter by others. The mino's are dependent on big daddy just the same, but are much more warrior like in their ways, and will out live the former. That's why it's particularly important to put some serious distance between yourself and these areas now.


    “Only Russia seems a viable survivor, and they are more traditionally defense orientated.”


    Totally agree. Russia doesn't do PC, and as such, will survive in the long term. The Russians were one of the first in modern times to experiment with feminism during the era of the Soviet Union, and saw the damage that it caused, and abolished it. The west does not “suffer” from that sort of common sense, and would have continued down the same destructive path until it all unraveled, had resource depletion not become the deal breaker first.

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    1. There is the strange current Russian fixation on very easy divorce. I would imagine this particular aspect of Women's Lib helps keep the democraphic pressure down. Not sure how that plays out long term.

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  5. A 48-pack of AA Duracell (throwaway) batteries may have 12 year storage date on them, but they go darn-fast when being fed to walkie-talkies, flashlights, and night vision goggles. "just get a case of 20 packs" uhhh, problem only slightly shifted forward in time for your minimal "multi-generational survival" tribe of at least 20 super-compatible adults of multiple cross-trained skills. They will burn 1000 AA's every year on "essential" uses. The solutions are no-battery 18th century ones, like whistles and using moonlight as primary behavior, and operational radios/NV as reserved/secret/secured "force multipliers".

    Have many sons, like the Pashtun do. This will be the tribal force. Direct it well to keep the food stocks gathered and secured.

    High-tech goodies like a 1960's mil-surp grey poncho will be treasured. You don't get wet, don't get cold, don't die, while under-prepared out-of-gas hungry wandering Sburbans without ponchos do. Look at the thin-clothing people wear in their climate-controlled houses and cars- without massive BTU input of specialized fuels none of this works and it's back to San Diego or huddling around fires until spring. Flip-flops are not good for road marching.

    pdxr13

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    1. "directing your Pushtun like force well" is not how to secure a long term tribe. Bad ;leaders come around, good ones die. Don't rely on leadership. Rely on custom. So, yes, in effect "direct" them well, but in the sense of establishing the culture immediately. Then your presence is optional.

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  6. Reinforces the need for a bolt action rather than semi.

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    1. Doesn't almost everything we are seeing unfold?

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