Thursday, August 23, 2018

the next crash


THE NEXT CRASH
We’ve covered this somewhere before, hidden in the mists of antiquity, but perhaps it is time to revisit the subject as the time seems right.  It is my contention, and your mileage will vary according to the level of doom and gloom and pessimism overhanging your head or the amount of optimistic unicorn sunshine shooting out of your ass, that this next extreme economic contraction will be the last one, effectively, for you ( regardless of the greatness of your skill ).  By which I mean, this will be the last time you will be laid off.  You won’t find another job, or if you do it will be at a level you cannot conceive of due to its too low pay at too few hours allowing too few modern middle class luxuries.
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The day you get your pink slip should be the day you go into full on Crap The Bed panic mode and rather than start looking for another job or using your savings to pay your bills until you can find that other job, you move out to your junk land immediately and don’t spend anything of your savings unless absolutely necessary.  Now, besides my proclivity towards hate and pessimism, why have I come to this conclusion?  You already know because I’ve covered this multiple times, but the Perfect Storm of events is either already underway or soon to be.
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The dollar is dying as the global currency.  The fracking oil is running out.  Your shiny White ass is a target as never before.  And the whole globe is disintegrating from forces you don’t want to believe will happen here because although you pretend that It Can’t Happen Here ‘Cause We Be ‘Murican’s, Muther Humper!, it will still hit us like a ton of bricks despite your Ollie Optimism.  We got out of the Great Depression by, literally, mining all our ore and burning all our oil ( all of our surplus, anyway.  The early fifties saw Peak Iron Ore for this country and before WWII was over we were running out of surplus gold and were making plans for Saudi oil ).
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We escaped our Peak Oil by converting from a gold backed dollar to a middle east backed dollar.  All of the Fracking Fag Peak Oil Deniers seem to conveniently forget that we already had a HUGE economic collapse from Peak Oil.  When the domestic lower 48 hit conventional Peak right on schedule, our economy nearly imploded.  It was far worse than 2008.  And that was an economy with lots of conventional oil and with gold.  All that happened was that the growth of production stopped.  That was all it took.  By bribing the Saudi’s to cover our currency, we escaped that economic event just as war production had allowed us to escape the Great Depression.
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( and a PS on that note.  You say “war production saved the economy”, and don’t think beyond that.  But ponder this.  To bail out the Federal Reserve Bank and the industrial corporations, it took poor civilians thrown into the meat grinder of war.  If the war hadn’t been planned and executed for MAXIMUM equipment expenditure, we wouldn’t have turned the entire economy around by saving us from overproduction.  And when your entire war effort is designed to waste equipment so you can replace it, by necessity you waste a lot of lives.  The pilots go down in poorly designed planes or ships ( or they are lost through poor leadership decisions ) or grunts roast off in crappy tanks.  Most of these instances are downplayed in the orgy of patriotism, but available for those looking )
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We got a decade of economic activity from the Alaskan oil ( now down to a near useless trickle ), and then another by essentially controlling the Siberian fields of production.  The next decade was solely saved through extreme debt and artificial stimulus, cashing in all the gains of the last twenty years of extra oil.  A bit of that was a war economy, and the government debt that entailed, but we also needed to add in the last of the cheap Chinese exports and total civilian indebtedness, selling the rest of their working years for extremely overpriced shelter.  The last decade, only fracking oil has allowed our economy to continue without going tits up. 
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So, having used every trick in the book to survive the last fifty years of contraction, which was due simply to the end of growth of energy supplies ( the economy had been based on perpetual energy growth, not just energy availability-see Peak Prosperity for a simple explanation on that one ), what can we hope for next?  Another miracle?  Okay, sure, in theory, there is another can to kick down the road.  Anyone who saw the end of the gold standard back then could never have conceived of Saudi Oil bailing us out.  To them, the end was indeed nigh.  So we could be similarly blind to a Hail Mary Pass save, economically.  I won’t say it is impossible.
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What I’d like to ask is if it is probable.  You are after all betting your life on this wager.  The next indicator of another economic crash is probably going to be your unemployment.  If you use up your resources staying in place and betting on Business As Usual, and you lose that bet, you are stuck in place living under a bridge next to the Black Ghetto.  If there is no new job, and hence no new assets to replace what you wasted, what in the name of all that is holy and just are you going to do to extract yourself? 
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Most of us have it in the back of our heads how special we are.  Few except the oldest had the stupid beat out of us by parents and we grew up thinking our feces didn’t stink.  Even if we weren’t treated like spoiled princesses, a more recent phenomenon, we also didn’t experience true pain and suffering for stupidity.  We honestly don’t think we will ever lack an escape pod.  Gott Damn stupid humping rabbits, life boats don’t magically appear in a civilization die-off! 
( .Y. )
( today's related link https://amzn.to/2Pi7TzH )
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note: lead for reloading.  Impossible to find locally, in a town of 16k but whose businesses also serve a county with an additional 45k or so.  I even went to the recycle center ( it takes a crap ton of crushing cans to get much money.  Eight years of the ex drinking beers, 15 old feed bags with all cans crushed by yours truly, 32 cans per pound, 80 pounds, $33 ) but they can't sell any lead.  The ammo places carried no lead shot.  I ordered through Amazon, at $2.40 a pound after shipping ( you buy in 50 pound units for that price ).  A pound gets you 30-70 bullets, from rifle to small caliber pistol.  I'm looking at 3.5cents a bullet ( Red Dot loaded pistol bullet in my Enfield ) compared to buying factory cast at a dime each.  In 350 bullets I've paid for the mold.  My long term plan is doubling my rifle ammo ( with the reduced rounds ) to 10k rounds.  $220 in powder, $180 in lead and $150 in primers.  I'll have to think on extra cases.  If you can't find lead locally, I've added the product to my bulk buying page https://bisonbulk.blogspot.com/ .  
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22 comments:

  1. "...lead for reloading. Impossible to find locally..."

    Have you tried your local tire shops to see if they'll sell you pulled wheel weights? Most of those today are zinc (not good for reloading as zinc is too hard for use in general purpose bullets and should not be blended with lead in the melting pot, either) but the older ones are lead/antimony that make pretty good bullets. (Adding a touch of tin from some surplus tin/lead or SAC electronic solder lessens surface tension and helps the molten alloy flow better.)
    Here's a video describing one way to distinguish the zinc wheelwrights from the lead one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOzvSntNd_I

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    1. From watching several vids, ID by markings isn't the best way. Use a magnet to toss all the steel. Then for what is left use wire cutters. Zinc is much harder than lead and can't be easily cut.

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    2. Any designated shooting ranges or lanes with piled berms of dirt as back stops to the steel targets? If so and timed right, around shooting sessions try that. A screed screen in small frame over a bucket with a shovel and sieve it out. U tube had a bufford fellow in the south doing it and scored loads of it. Melted and cast his own bullets. Used powder coating and spare oven to powder coat the bullets as well. Score brass casings and trash picked empty ammo boxes as well. Scavenge now while crumbs are still out there.

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    3. The Polizi here have an official gated range. Everyone else shoots informally. We might have an official civilian range but I haven't heard of it.

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    4. Ride around on your pee wee herman bicycle with your pliers and yank the wheel weights off of yuppie and government vehicles. They may hobble about out of balance, but you got lead for bullet making. Ha!---Ha! (Might as well laugh like your batshit as he was)

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    5. You laugh, but I've actually considered it more than once. The only thing stopping me is I might go to Bubba's House over crappy zinc or steel.

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    6. "Use a magnet to toss all the steel. Then for what is left use wire cutters. Zinc is much harder than lead and can't be easily cut."

      Yep, that's how I do it...

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    7. The sad part is, I needed to watch three vids on the same thing and piece it all together. Oh, well. Nothing is easy, right?

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  2. Rural King. Yesterday. Bought (8) 500rd boxes of Armscor .22, 36gr, long rifle, hollow point, for $19.90 per box. Over the past several years I have put about 2000 rds of this same stuff through my Marlin model 60 and Beretta model 21. Good stuff. Good price. I may go back tomorrow and get 8 more.

    Why sift dirt when brand new shiney ones cost 4 cents each, ready to roll.

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    1. They wanted 5.6 cents ea for their 22's when I was in the gun store ( after tax, 6.1 cents ea ). Now I know why I've gone in there twice in ten years. And it was the Remington Bucket O Bullets!

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  3. “A pound gets you 30-70 bullets, from rifle to small caliber pistol.”


    Just throwing this out there as a possible compromise. To be clear, the following suggestion is merely a better than nothing suggestion, not an ideal solution. The rounds being discussed are low velocity plinking rounds (About like a .22 magnum according to the fellow in the video below) and are far from ideal.

    Keyword search (From DuckDuckGo):

    “.303 plinking rounds using buckshot”

    Reloading The 303 British: 00 Buckshot Gallery Load (Probably the most useful to you)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=6&v=8igU2-u59Fk

    Another link (It’s mentioned that they don’t cycle well due to length, so you must load them singly):

    http://castboolits.gunloads.com/showthread.php?299821-Making-303-British-bullets-from-000-buckshot

    1-1/2 buckshot at .310” is a little smaller than a .303 bullet (.311 to .312”) so you might need to use a small bit of adhesive (maybe Elmer’s, or perhaps even a paper patch?) to keep the bullet in place. But if you go the next size up to 0 buckshot, it’s 320”, so you might have to employ the same technique as the fellow in the video above. With the 1-1/2 buck, you might just get by gently tapping it in with a punch.

    But here’s where the savings come in. $38 for 8lbs of buckshot, or 1280 projectiles!

    https://www.ballisticproducts.com/Super-Buck-Lead-1-1_2-8-lb_jar-310/productinfo/SBK15/

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    1. Can't really see that as viable, as you just melt and reload the cast bullet. Now, if your mold breaks... But by then you probably haven't stocked up. Unless found shotgun rounds, plus broken mold, then-good to know. No knowledge is wasted in the end.

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  4. "You won’t find another job, or if you do it will be at a level you cannot conceive of due to its too low pay at too few hours..."

    I tend to think of post-crash employment based upon a documentary I watched maybe 20 years ago. It was a National Geographic or similar inquiry into child labor in Pakistan or India. Anyhow, think of barefoot children wearing loincloths or tattered clothing, squatting over a tree stump, extracting sulfurous products for the manufacturing of matches. The children were payed pennies a day for a 16-hour work shift, and only got one day off every two weeks.

    So I tend to think of low pay and too many hours of dangerous, dirty, soul-crushing work, always hungry and tired, with no workmans comp/disability/osha protections. Walk home after surviving your work shift, hope you find a rat to fill your soup pot, and collapse on your bed, hoping you're not late to work in the morning so you don't get beat or fired from your job you worked so hard to get.
    Happy day,
    Peace out

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    1. Conditions salivatated over by today's prospective Robber Barons. How dare we ask for expensive workplace safety!

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  5. Consider the ammo as a strategic aquisition. Considering that as a commodity, it is not necessarily an expendable (used daily-frequently-often thus used up quickly, normal operations of course) consumer product it takes some different thinking and approaches. While net is up and trucks roll, shopping for best deals is your advantage, for now. (Ammobot, good search price sourcing tool) A real consideration should be made for quantity produced vs your workbench scale as well as equivalent or better quality control. Time/labor is a quantifiable element in buy up vs reload efforts. Not at all discounting reloading as a skill set/hobby/barter asset. The collapse and subsequent die off-sports may not allow leeway or afford one options of scavenging saltpeter and scrapworks. Have stockpile secured well in quantities first, then you may dabble like craftsmen tv shows on PBS.

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    1. Right, craftmanship is invaluable and needed, eventually, but it is crazy how labor cheap factory is compared to cottage industry. Not sustainable but great now.

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  6. Calling BS. Of course I’m no expert, but by the same token I am shocked we are still here. I don’t think the next “correction” will amount to much. As a nation we are slouching toward Marxism. I’d bet a dollar there will be blood in the streets before there is some major correction.

    JeSteR

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    1. There already is blood in the streets, but it is a low intensity conflict. Of course, I take your meaning. I'm sure something filed under Not Fun will start rather soon. But be careful with your worries of commies under every bed. It has always been more economic than political. You really think the elite will give up any wealth for a distribution theme? If they don't, hard to call that Marxism. Perhaps we are using different definitions?

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    2. I’m inclined to agree with JeSteR here. Oh sure, the next communist candidate will promise the sun, the moon, and the stars, and won’t make good on it (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez anyone?) but it won’t matter, because you know; we finally got that “racist” sexist” “homophobic bigot” “Nazi” out of power (Yup. These dumbfucks have now successfully reduced the value of the word Nazi to include anyone that doesn’t vote democrat).

      But we will still lose all of the most important rights where it counts. European style gun laws, and hate speech legislation is absolutely, 100% positively a given, and coming to a city near you.

      No, not until bellies start to go empty, will the sheeple finally realize that they’ve been had, and by then it will be too late, and they will have to resort to eating zoo animals, or anything else that they can get their hands on, as in Venezuela.

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    3. If you start with the premise that voting actually matters, that they allow us to change the wealth paradigm at will, then you can draw the wrong conclusions. We haven't gotten more communism over the last fifty years, we have gotten more wealth returning to the robber barons. If you think the rule of law is still in effect, read about three weeks worth of :
      https://market-ticker.org/
      He loves to catalog the complete flaunting of the law by corporations on the industry level, with a clomplacent FedGov. Unless the big boys profit off of communism, it ain't going to happen. Just remember that the more crowded you are, the more Left-like the gov is, because more bodies need more control to keep their wealth pump safe. But that isn't communism. Think Fascism. They can be hard to tell apart. If they do approach communism it is more on the Chinese model, where the corporation owners are members of the One Party ( theirs commie, ours Imperial or Gott Damn Yanky Scum party ). I guess in the end it is semantics since the end results are similar, but in the mean time it is easier to judge what happens next by looking through an economic prism, not an ideological one. Even the Russian commies were economically driven during the Revolution.

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  7. Agree completely about more-crowded places becoming more collectivistic and authoritarian. People with power to get more of what is needed at your expense DO THAT. The "peace n love" flower power "sharing" of the Baby Boomers never was, except for hallucinations inspired by Mao and Mind Kontrol Ultra (CIA/NAZI MKUltra program).

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    1. People in power live off the efforts of others in all population densities. I was speaking more of the need for extra control to keep the peace. The fascists were much more ruthless and effective back then. They would have been great keeping the cultural fabric intact if they weren't so insistent on sacrificing the voting block to big science experimentation. Nuclear fallout was just the beginning. Come to think of it, they really were acting like Nazi's. Perhaps Operation Paperclip was far greater than admitted.

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