Tuesday, June 19, 2018

sending your kid to college 2 of 2


SENDING YOUR KID TO COLLEGE 2
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Yesterday, I marveled at the business “sense” of most folks, chasing after the higher income customers.  Yes, I realize that no one can time the collapse, and your imperial drones pulling in extra pilfered treasure can go on for some time.  Or, it couldn’t.  Why is everyone assuming that we will still see a long slow collapse for another fifty years?  That seems a bit retarded to me.  If you plan on LESS disposable income, you are already betting on the prevailing trend.  Yet everyone chases the high incomes.  Those folks trying to sell pretty pony menstrual pads think they are smarter than Nordstrum’s?  Which, in case you missed the memo, is no longer the darling performer it was.

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Almost everywhere you look, you see this.  Look at Habeeb’s Lottery & Beer.  Just because he operates in the ghetto doesn’t mean he is all that smart about future business trends.  He counts on customers on the government dole.  Which, logically, must be cut sometime in the future.  I knew plenty of folks on the welfare that earned more than I did working minimum wage 25 hours a week.  More than that, once they got their Section 8 housing.  Yet, they might not be “high income” all that much longer and they sure as hell are just as insecure as a future customer. 

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The convenience store is also a stopgap measure feeding folks in a car-less suburb.  The high prices ensure it cannot survive far into the future just because of that, welfare customers or not.  This is not a sustainable business.  Well, you snort disdainfully as you consult your Libertarian 101 textbook, no business is forever.  I’ll just see what the market will bear and open another one.  Right.  Because by then, you’ll have no competition from those that already figured out how to meet the needs of the growing legions of poor.  And you’ll have plenty of resources to do so, because you didn’t spend them keeping that other turd afloat.  I’m being sarcastic.

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There is a lot to be blamed on the other trend, the financialization of the economy where everything ( and anything ) is taken over by the bankers.  Do you think Netflix or Amazon are “future poor trend” businesses?  Of course they are not.  They pretend to serve the poor customer, but they are losing money doing so.  The lost money part is so as to pump up their stock price for the benefit of the very few.  Why do you think Disney keeps churning out Star Wars movie failures?  It is just about keeping their stock price inflated ( they are cooking the books on the losses, such as neglecting to mention the acquisition costs ).

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Now, don’t get me wrong.  I love Amazon.  Both as a book lover and a micro-business owner.  But you can clearly see the cannibalization.  Remember how they used to take pride in a quick search for your item, avoiding clutter from graphics?  Now?  Slower than a sloth over broken glass as advertisements pop up EVERYWHERE.  It is beyond annoying.  And we put up with it because of near monopolies everywhere.  Okay, as I said, you can now beat Amazon on price with careful shopping.  Sometimes you need to buy in bulk, which is annoying also.  They are no longer the low price leader, but rather the One Stop Shopping that used to belong to Wally. 

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But you do see how they are getting away from Poor People as customers and slightly moving towards more affluent shoppers, yes?  That trend will only accelerate.  It has to, because they are losing money for market share.  They must keep compromising on lower prices to survive.  Look at a few that get it right.  www.sgammo.com , those wonderful guys that sell ammo cheap.  Certainly cheaper than Cheaper Than Dirt.  Granted, you need to come up with a case cost rather than a box cost.  But the great thing about that is you don’t need to be affluent to buy by the case.  You just need to be frugal and out of debt.

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Rather than chasing the customer with credit cards, it chases the guy so cheap he has no debt so he can seriously prepare for the zombie apocalypse.  And as a bonus, the indebted idiots also are customers on their way to the poorhouse.  It counts on folks needing to spend LESS.  That is the whole business model that needs to be emphasized.  LESS cost, not More.  Wally, and soon Amazon, Sears and K-Mart, they all started out asking for less, then went over to the Dark Side of demanding more.  Not just higher prices in dollar costs but in reduced quality. 

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Look at Alchem Incorporated ( http://alchemic.com ).  They offer metal prods for crossbows.  Have you tried buying a factory built crossbow with any kind of prod other than fiberglass or whatever crap plastic they use?  Perhaps they work just fine.  But I want old school metal, especially for the apocalypse ( and, I don’t have the machine tools to make my own ).  This company might not be the cheapest, but they are by no means Yuppie Scum orientated.  They offer quality at a reasonable cost.  We don’t need more of the cheapest.  That is what everyone else is offering, hence the fiberglass prods.  We need better for less.  Alchem seems to fit that model.

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Sportsmen’s Guide got huge and kept that pricing advantage for the customer.  As soon as it is ever sold, you can bet prices jump ten percent, then later another ten, just to pay for the merger.  I don’t discount that cost.  I’m saying that you can no longer acquire the competition and lower costs.  It just increases them.  Sportsman’s has kept in mind that there are a lot of customers that aren’t rich white guys.  There are plenty of rednecks out there with much small disposable income amounts, but in aggregate they are the better customer base to cater to. 

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There is nothing wrong with a niche business.  I’d imagine there are less crossbow prods to sell than there are reuseable menstrual pads.  One is potentially half the population and the other certainly is not.  One is reasonably priced to the growing trend of less disposable income and the other is not.  Who do you think will survive?   The one deeply in debt with high prices ( pads ), or the small workshop one selling at reasonable prices ( prods )?  And isn’t that sad, also?  It takes far cheaper tools to sew a pad than it does to cut and shape metal.  Also, inventory for steel is higher. 

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The pad company might survive, as more and more women get poor and have to go from disposable to reuseable.  But I doubt it.  A publication like the old Tightwad Gazette will come around and tell gals how to make their own pads for a buck, so that they come out ahead even AFTER subscribing to that newsletter.  Or, YouTube will get that business as video self help is much better than written instructions in many cases.  The Trend Is Your Friend.  Too bad most folks identify the wrong trend.  Hint, it ain’t “Growth Uber Alles”.

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36 comments:

  1. By the term prods, are you talking about bolts ?
    Mass vs force = velocity is why bolts are made of fiberglass or other composites for speed. Plenty of aluminum shafts too. For post apox manufacturing, wood and metal will work, just not nearly as well...

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    1. The bow itself, not the stock or the shafts/bolts. Did I screw up the terminology?

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    2. No, not necessarily. I'm not a lover of crossbows so not totally familiar with nominclature of all their parts.
      Whether the bow limbs or riser are fiberglass doesn't really factor, as these parts rarely fail.
      The strings are the weak point in bows or crossbows. They fail on a regular basis, even with only time elapsing and no use they degrade.
      Very important to stockpile string making capability and learn the art.
      The bows themselves are virtually indestructible and will last a lifetime ( Unless dry fired ! )

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    3. Is there a rule of thumb, how often you should change the string to avoid most breakage?

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  2. Sportsmen’s Guide was sold to a French company a few years back.

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    1. Wow! Seriously? That kind of screws up my theory, doesn't it?

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    2. Seems like it was bought again in 2012 by Northern Tool.

      https://infogalactic.com/info/The_Sportsman%27s_Guide

      In 2006, The Sportsman’s Guide was acquired for approximately $265 million by Redcats USA, a wholly owned subsidiary of Redcats Group which is the home-shopping group owned by French luxury and distribution group PPR (Pinault-Printemps-Redoute).[2]

      In 2012, The Sportsman’s Guide was acquired for $215 million by Northern Tool + Equipment.[3]

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    3. Hmmm. Must have gotten into more debt. Then NTE bought at a lower price with assumed debt. This certainly is perplexing. Unless acquisition costs are simply much lower with their expanding buying network and hence there is no need to raise prices to pay off the debt.

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  3. Thanks for posting the sgammo link. 40 cents a round for 303 is sweet if you can even find it.

    As to selling to the high end crowd, that is not only because of the perception of higher profit, but less wear and tear on the store itself. A yuppie is much less likely to take a dump in a corner while eating a bag of chips pilfered off the shelf.

    Amazon is dead to me after what they did to my sister. She sold a lot on there before Amazon started putting ads for the same product undercutting her price. Then they decided to stop warehousing her stuff. I will bootleg Man In The High Castle if they ever get around to making more episodes.

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    1. The 40 cent ammo is steel. Blech! I'd rather buy 311 bullets at a dime each and reload with the shotgun powder ( as per a recent article comments ) using my Euro brass I'm reusing from 70cent rounds. Even at only five reloads each ( I'd assume more with neck resize only plus annealment ) that is still under 35cents each. Granted, carbine vs battle rifle round, apples to oranges, but I shudder to think of my Enfield extractor plus accepting even worse accuracy by using steel.
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      I will admit to a distorted outlook with Amazon. I have several strong issues with them myself. But they are my primary source of income and hence I downplay the negative.

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    2. I understand your reasons for sticking with Amazon, I am not mad at you for that. Next time I send a donation it will be a money order since you are having problems with payPal

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    3. I could give Patreon another try, and I could try installing that Ujabubu browser or whatever the heck it is called I was told about ( the one that sounds like Obammy's Kenyan tribe owns ). But those bastards pissed me off to the point I don't want them to make money off of me. I appreciate your understanding. And your support.

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    4. Ubuntu? Whole Linux operating system with new, up to date browser built in, and no Microsoft slowing your system down on purpose to force an upgrade..back up your computer first.....and access to 1000s of free programs in their software center...

      Go work with the 18.04 LTS version....

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    5. Yeh, I have it written down somewhere. I know I need to do it at some time so I don't need to buy another $200 Windows computer. On which I don't know if I can transfer the $100 Word ( bought it downloaded from Amazon ). God, how I hate messing with computers.

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  4. A lot off topic here (give or take) it was just announced today that Bezos of Amazon fame is now the richest man in the WORLD with 141 billion 900 million dollars! And a surprise to me he only has a 26% stake in the company he created.
    Next, my local paper not known for usually informing it's readers bad news, states we are again at the same level with home equity loans as we were in 2006 and 2007. (ominus music here, DAA DAA DAAA!)
    And last but not least, one of the fastest growing job markets is Auto repossesion due to all the sub-prime auto loans handed out like LSD at a Grateful Dead concert.
    My friend in his fifties is averaging 3 repos a day at $100.00 a pop and he just started the job 3 weeks ago. Sounds good if you don't mind the early morning hours.
    So taking these 3 comments does it make your scenario look spot on or still hazy about the soon to be future?

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    1. Bill Gates used to be King Crap and now he needs to be propped up by the NSA. Wait, I think Bezos is also...

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    2. Last time I did a repo, there were guns involved on both sides. Not worth it to me, I hope your friend does better

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    3. Hmm, true. Folks get a bit more protective of their cars. Probably will risk more of their health over the auto than their spouse. Or kids.

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    4. It was hard to tell, 20 of them rolled out of a single wide and I had a 12 gauge, a piece of paper and a tow truck. Looked to me the whole damned tribe was involved

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    5. Well, there you go. You didn't have an AR with FLIR scope. Against 20.

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  5. Businesses or individual merchantile operators that are not engaged in commerce of products or services that are a life essential or bare bones life enhancing (not luxury) is now in a terminal dying phase in this new economy. They are being run hard like a tired stagecoach horse, hoping it doesn't collapse. Cutting costs to the point of safety/ liability exposure and squeezing as much profit from the remaining gullible and the remaining shrinking decent income earning consumers. Owners and executives will be pink slipping and padlocking the dead corpse business faster than all get out. It is advisable they flee town as well to their yuppie compounds or new zealand. The working joe's won't be taking it well the next go around.

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    1. Rode hard and put up wet. Or, rode harder than a nag to the glue factory.

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  6. I actually had no idea that The Sportsman’s Guide had been sold off, and am sorry to hear of it. That Gary Olen dude was a hoot, and had a similar style to your own. I recall that he was prone to taking jabs at the fems within the pages of his catalog (pre-internet) but later backed off from it.

    I can almost hear that painful conversation coming down from HR now:

    “So Gary, we’re entering a new era, and it’s no longer fashionable in polite company to be insensitive to those with extra pigmentation, an extra X chromosome, and those that engage in recreational anal play, are off limits as well. You’re free to bash your own demographic all you want though.”

    That conversation probably just about killed the poor bastard :D

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    1. Perhaps why it was time to retire? Why play the game if you don't have to?

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  7. Well I'm hitting it on both sides of the head at the same time.

    Making MORE, spending LESS.
    For the various reasons you've mentioned.
    Seems kinda common sensical, if work and money is going to be tight in the future than it's only prudent to get as much as you can now.

    I helped a guy rake about a 600' x 8' gravel driveway he had put down yesterday. The truck did a good job of spreading it out but there were areas that needed touching up. It was in the 90's yesterday so ample sun was procured, yeah, lot's O' vitamin D! No money changed hands but now he "owes" me, if you know what I mean. I may need him to help me in the future and I now have a positive balance in his "Barter Bank" account. LOL

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    1. If you keep spending less, it is the same as learning to earn less. I guess I did the same 2012-2017. Basically only worked for prep items and optional semi-luxuries.

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  8. “Is there a rule of thumb, how often you should change the string to avoid most breakage?”


    You got it right Jim. The prod is the bow part of the crossbow. I have a high end crossbow (an Excalibur to be specific) and the prod is not made of steel. It doesn’t look as if it’s fiberglass either, but rather, some kind of high impact plastic if I had to guess.

    As far as the string goes, the wear will be obvious, and you should know when to replace it. You have to wax the string on a crossbow much more often then on a bow (I think about every 5 to 7 shots) because it glides across the track, wearing them out much faster. A recurve bow is actually more foolproof, since there is less that can go wrong with them, and the strings will last much longer.

    One thing worthy of mention is that my crossbow is very accurate. Mine has a scope, and I can consistently put a bolt in a 3” or tighter circle at 20 yards. Really, you could snipe wary game or enemy combatants with this thing rather easily. I chose a recurve crossbow because I wanted something with less moving parts to replace.

    Also worth noting is that a 150lb crossbow is about the same as a 50lb bow. The crossbow, having a shorter prod (therefore a shorter power stroke) needs that extra poundage to make up for the shorter prod.

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    1. The books I have on old timey crossbows show a design where the string does NOT glide against the wood. I wonder if that isn't a modern design to sell you wax and strings. Or, that could be the ones using short bolts rather than longer ones, where there is no other way to do it.

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    2. “The books I have on old timey crossbows show a design where the string does NOT glide against the wood.”


      That sounds like a pretty good design then, and the string should last for a long time under those conditions. On a modern crossbow, the track is usually metal.

      Here’s another important consideration. The old time wooden crossbow is probably similar to the type that they had in the road warrior. These older crossbows used a very simple trigger mechanism, and basically, you had the full weight of the prod against the trigger, making for a very heavy trigger pull, which in turn, made for poor accuracy, as you moved off target while pulling the heavy trigger.

      That’s the difference between a primitive crossbow and the Excalibur, which has a two stage trigger mechanism, resulting in a 3.5lb trigger pull. I remember I purchased a Horton crossbow from the sportsman’s guide some years back. That thing had such a horrendous trigger pull, that I sent it back. You couldn’t hit the broadside of a big, fat, Rosie O’Dumbbell ass at 5 paces with that thing, which as you know, is one hell of a target to miss :D

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    3. I'd imagine that the glide serves as a consistent release for accuracy.
      Crossbows are great for those which have limited compound bow skills. Other than that they are noisier and slower for multiple shots.
      So far as accuracy goes, I too can easily put arrows into a 3" group at twenty yards.with a compound bow.

      So far as longevity of the strings. Waxing regularly and keeping them dry , clean and out of the sun will increase life. On a recurve setup, with only the single string...you could see several years use.
      However , with a compound bow...if the string setup fails at full draw...very bad things can happen with the bow limbs. (In short, they may explode )
      So in a pre collapse scenario...on a bow which I use daily to practice. The strings should be replaced every two years...provided good maintenance and no abrasions .

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    4. I imagine the crossbow was more like the musket than the rifle. Used for mass volley. Not necessarily pinpoint accuracy.

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    5. The old school ones yes. The only great aspect a crossbow has is its ability to stay cocked and locked. I might add that string life is much lower when left in full draw.
      A great advantage of a recurve bow is the ability to destring and relax everything when not in use.

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    6. I didn't think a crossbow string had any pressure on it prior to drawing. It was obviously strung tight, but there is no pulling the prod. Or am I way off?

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    7. Yes there definitely is pressure on the string even when not drawn, although much less than at full draw.
      I have a recurve crossbow of 175 lbs. When I flew with it back from Idaho to Florida, I had to unstring it to make it safe for travel (regulations) let me tell ya it was very difficult to do without a bow press too ! Fortunately I have a bow press at home, so easily restrung it when I got here.
      Again...for long term storage, I encourage any bow to be stored unstrung. To preserve the string longer.
      Not to mention long term degredation of the limbs.
      Think of the bow limbs like any spring. If left under tension long term, the spring will slowly break down and lose some of its rebound.

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    8. As with a recurve bow Jim, a crossbow, even in the neutral or uncocked position, is under tension, when strung. You’re supposed to unstring a standard recurve bow when not in use. However, my crossbows manufacturer says that you do not need to do this with my particular model, but in between seasons, that it’s a good idea.

      These days, I prefer to concentrate on the lightweight and compact slingbow. The biggest disadvantage here being the rubber tubing in a post oil age society (vacuum pack lots of it, and keep it in a cool, dark, place).

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    9. Reading your two comments jogged my brain. My apologies for showing my ass. Indeed, now I remember the inner hooks on the prod you use to draw in the bow to unstring the thing, or replace a broken one. Yes, minions make me look smarter than I should :)

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