Monday, December 16, 2019

unicorns and oil


UNICORNS AND OIL
During a particularly harsh winter, there is a shortage of heating fuel. The Secretary of the Interior calls for a crash program to extract shale oil from the Green River Formation under Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. The plants would be built with sixteen million tons of steel at a projected $100 Billion. In ten years, up to two million barrels a day of fuel would be produced. Alternately, our reserves of coal could be converted by the Fisher/Tropsch process, as the Nazi's had used during the war. This could circumvent our dependence on middle eastern oil.
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Sounds good, right? It sure sounded good in 1948, when this actually happened. All I did was substitute “heating fuel” for “heating oil” ( before natural gas was used and we were just switching over from coal ), and adjust the $9 billions for inflation. This was prior to the Interstate system being built, as you'll perhaps recall the last mega-construction project in this country. Back then, we had the industry, the raw materials, the educated work force, the infrastructure and the national will to undertake such projects. None of which we have today, except the money, but fiat currency doesn't create the others out of thin air.
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Now, obviously, the winter ended, other sources of oil and heating were found, we DID become dependent on foreign oil and a very long precedent was set where we merely talked about energy independence instead of did anything about it. We no longer have huge reserves of coal to use, and the only country to ever resort to that after Germany was South Africa, during the Apartheid era while under embargo ( during which their arms industry developed a lot of good hardware ). And the Green River fantasy NEVER panned out.
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Not for lack of imagination, but lack of water and any possibility of it being economically feasible. I simply LOVE when some Optimistic Ollie get his knickers in a bunch over “our unwillingness to innovate and invest in our vast reserves of oil”. You do realize that, from your extensive research which also covered Canadian tar sands, shale oil must be COOKED. As in, heat needs to be used to extract the SYNTHETIC oil. It isn't even real oil. Gee I wonder how high-NOT-the energy return on investment is with that.
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This is basically what all the “huge reserves, biggest in the world” crap is in Venezuela. Fake oil, with most likely a negative return on energy. Oh, you can extract and process all you want, throwing money at the problem. But it is either negative net energy, or such a minute return as to be a huge money waster. You do realize that fracking oil, while a HUGE improvement over “a gabazillion trillion barrels of oil under Wyoming and Utah” as far as net energy, is still a money loser, AND a very small net energy return, do you not? It WAS a gift from God, but by no means a miracle.
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Politicians are one of the worlds biggest scumbags. Worse than pedophiles, because at least those sick bastards can only ruin one kids life at a time. Politicians ruin millions with their stupidity. And you can place millions to one odds with your Vegas bookie that they will always, without exception, take the easy way out of any problem ( yes, even your beloved Trump. Reagan was a politician, not all that great at working an honest job, but at least he was a RELATIVELY harmless politician, whom had in my opinion an actual desire to help. And your Trump is emphatically NOT a Reagan ).
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FDR was put into the White House by the bankers who caused the Great Depression. He stole the citizens gold because the bankers so desired it. He got us into WWII, to save the economy the bankers screwed over. And at the end of his pathetic and slimy life, he set up our “special relationship” with Saudi Arabia. Every step of the way, taking the easy way out. The reason we had a heating oil shortage in 1948 was because the economy was allowed to go full bore, so as not to endanger the economic recovery the war delivered. We grew too fast for our oil supply.
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And never did the hard things stopping that Juggernaut. We kept taking the easy way out, one retarded, short sighted political decision after another. I'm not saying the shale oil project should have preceded. It was a fantasy from the beginning. What we should have done was stop consuming oil as if it was going to last forever. We went from producing half the world's oil, to today's ten percent of conventional oil. But during that time we quadrupled our oil use.
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There was never any choice but to build our colonial empire, not after we hitched our wagon to unbridled consumption. We had to have oil, lots of it, and more of it every year. We kept telling ourselves sweet little lies, every swinging dingus among us bleating about “one MILLION years of energy use from shale oil!”, “the thousand year Reich from fracking oil!”. Some fool will get a woody over “tidal power, to send mankind to the stars!” or “cover Arizona in solar panels, and we'll have Jettson flying cars!”. No one cares about Jim, projectile vomiting blood over in the corner.
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These people that cannot accept reality, that think even if we couldn't use shale oil seventy years ago, well, by gum, we sure can do so NOW, even if the population doubled and we used up our coal ( it took China twenty years of growth to run out of its coal, but we are 'Muricans, so we'd have done better ), they are as small children. Too immature to accept that bad things can still happen to good people. If you just cover your ears and hum, you don't have to listen.
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If I tell you Peak Uranium was 1979, you just cherry pick the propaganda piece of your choice, a university or media outlet that has never lied about anything ( diversity is our strength! Gore Warming! ), and deny that. If I tell you smarter folks than me earning a living from resource studies point to fracking imploding in as little as one or two years, you just smile, congratulate yourself on your intelligence, and reply, “...OR, is it 99 years?!”. Your literature is the prospectus of the fracking companies, because those companies would NEVER, not in a million years, lie to get investments!
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Pull your head out of your ass. If I can't time the collapse, there is no friggin way you can. Stop buying yourself time by lying to yourself, get prepped yesterday, and then you can go back to sleep at the wheel.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click HERE )
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28 comments:

  1. If the fracking fruitcakes were so kicking ass, then how come they are not laying around on pillows playing video games in luxury like saudis or quataries kids. Instead the Bakken, dakotas, and all the so called boom areas are barely a better form of truck stop towns with family dollar stores. I call bull, as pump prices and hidden add on energy inflation costs to everything are still hurting me in the keister. This is so going to grind to halt, soon, really sooner everyday.

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    1. Well, our bankers do get hookers and blow, so what is the problem? :)

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    2. Even the pro-frackers have by now admitted that fracking was break-even at best. Mainly it was a way to get gov't subsidies and con rich people (who are no smarter than the rest of us, just richer) out of money. See Tesla Motors for more on this.

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    3. Don't get me started on the whore Musk

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  2. A france24 media piece did a story on Germany coal extraction and effects. They have lignite type which is a dirtier type of coal. They bought out (emminent domained type) and moved entire towns elsewheres. 11th century churches and everything was flattened and bulldozed out. This was to strip mine out coal under where that town was once located, for centuries. That is a hard core indicator of a society doing what is needed to get energy. This is for their electricity on top of them having insane amounts of solar infrastructures as well being pushed.

    I guess it takes bombings, seiges, freezings for winters in repetition, occupation, etc to kinda motivate a people from being slothy idiots, to having some kind proper intellect.

    It is really shameful good ol' 'Merica has to get burned to learn, as well.

    Wheat, and winter gear.

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    1. By the time 'Muricans learn, it will be too late. The whole country needs a Darwin Award.

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  3. For a week of leisurely reading, check out SUPERMOB by Russo.

    This mighty tome establishes, beyond any doubt, the puppet-masters pulling the strings on every GovernmentAgent from dog-catchers to presidents.

    SUPERMOB details the history of a corrupt bunch of inbreds from one tiny community in Russia, their spread, their adoption of the religious cover to conceal their crimes behind wailings of perpetual victimhood, and their skyrocket rise through possession of movie production and theater ownership to guarantee their propaganda was the only "news fit to print".

    About the time Harry S Truman handed Palestine to that mob of grifters in 1948, giving them a false air of authenticity, the Arabians got going in the oil business big time.
    How did a few nomadic shepherds become the richest family on this planet?
    Read SUPERMOB to discover the truth behind every lie == their lips are moving == from TheMainStreamMedia and every GovernmentAgent.

    How did TheGovernmentAgents gain so much power so quick?
    Was it their unions, and while we're at it, who organized their pensions systems to invest in their insurance companies and banks?
    The scam seems designed to bankrupt a planet.
    And planetary bankruptcy is inevitable.

    On the home-front, we had a great weekend. We acquired another 100# each of organic:
    Sproutable garbonzos
    Sproutable oats
    Sproutable wheat
    Sproutable pinto beans
    and some other bags I cannot remember right now.
    This morning, we're off to Winco for 5-gallon buckets with spinner lids.
    After transferring, everything goes to the gas store for a dose of nitrogen.
    At this rate, we might need another forty-foot Conex.

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  4. "..it took China twenty years of growth to run out of its coal.."

    NO.NO.NO. China hasn't run out of coal. In addition to expanding their own domestic coal production they now import add'l quantities from OZ and Indonesia. The imported coal feeds plants along the coast while domestic coal is used to industrialize heretofore neglected interior.

    In fact, China is planning on adding a new coal fired electric plant EVERY 2 WEEKS for next 12 years...Now,that might be a bit over the top plan but even if they build only one plant a week for next 15 years it is a sign they haven't run out of coal

    China's coal fired plants grew five-fold between 2000 and 2018 to reach 973GW, nearly HALF the global total.

    So, Lord Bison why are those smart Chinese building vast numbers of plants if they've run out of coal???

    Story is same around the world except where environmental wackos collude with tyrant politicians in Europe/USA to shutter coal.
    India is adding dozens of plants and Egypt is building her first large coal fired plant.

    Coal generates nearly 40% of the world’s electricity, close to its highest share in decades.
    Per the World Coal Council there is "enough coal to last us around 150 years at current rates of production.

    "https://www.worldcoal.org/coal/where-coal-found.

    Nope. Not running out of coal in our lifetimes or next lifetime either.


    "...reason we had a heating oil shortage in 1948 was because the economy was allowed to go full bore..."

    Yes, good thing we went full bore. We had half of Europe to rebuild/feed and all of Japan. Imagine the human suffering had we not gone full bore. Better that an American had to put on a heavy sweater while sitting in an intact house than to lose the peace in Europe, right? FYI,Britian & Germany still rationed some goods until early '50s

    Don't even bother to think of the upheavals in war destroyed countries and the Soviet threat to disrupt/overthrow those countries. Even war torn Soviets wouldn't have passed up chance to yuck around in W. Europe and Japan had US not filled the gap. Commies don't care about their own folk suffering it's Revolution full speed ahead.

    America didn't just stumble into becoming hooked on Mid East oil...it was discussed and planned as a strategic tool by Truman era Nat Security Council. They saw America's pre-war isolationism as contributing to WWII. So remedy was to bind (& build) US to the international order (UN, World Bank, NATO, Bretton Woods, all the international institutions). By US using Mid East oil we had a reason to be there thus denying hostile nations an opportunity to control vital commodity.
    Also, it was reasoned it is better to tap out the oil sources overseas before we tap our our own domestic sources.
    It's all laid out in declassified policy papers from NSC, CIA, DoD & White House.

    Hope you recover from projectile vomiting.

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    1. Do you believe the fable of the Chinese "ghost cities"? How about the Japanese over production of cement structures? Economic growth for its own sake. Building for its own sake. Overseas oil was necessary as our spare capacity waned, esp in WWII. We had no choice. And our global colonies were not noble but self serving. If you continue with your optimism, I'll just vomit again :) I'm kidding! See, same facts, same data, different interpretations based on assumptions.

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  5. Snow day, no work. How are you liking Global Warming now. I hope they keep pumping the crude, I wish they could speed up the pace because my oil royalty checks are getting bigger lately. It's ironic that the money they send, I spend on preps for when the crude oil is gone.

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    1. Ha! Best way to spend the money. So, are you addicted to the processed food, craving it even while not at work? Seems a lot of people are literally like that.

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    2. The first burger, taco, etcetera was great. But the luster has already vanished. I miss my real food already. I am enjoying ice cream. It has always been a favorite of mine, so much that I give the older lady a quarter mile down the road pickled quail eggs just to have a spot to keep ice cream in her porch freezer. Thinking about getting one of them ice cream balls that hold the cream in the center and you put ice and salt in a outer section. Then you roll it around for a bit. I went shopping a the farm store today and got a Heritage 22/22 magnum. $99 on sale. Also loaded up on 22 snakeshot. Copperheads are getting dead next Spring. Last year I was shooting them with 9mm and that' some tricky shooting. Kind of hard to hit.

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    3. Snakes, Lucifer's Minions. Of course, if it can't kill me, I'm okay with them.

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  6. I have a theory about nuclear power, that if you add up ALL the energy that went in, from building the plant to digging up and purifying the fuel, trucking supplies and fuel, new and used, in and out, burying or otherwise disposing of the fuel, all the manpower and their lunches and pension plans and all of it, really all of it, it's a push at best and almost certainly been a loss.

    The ONLY way nuclear power has come out ahead is - because the US had steadfastly only built the kinds of reactors that create weapons-grade fuel - the fact that you can level a city with a piece of uranium or plutonium the size of a head of cabbage which can be delivered by one plane or missile.

    That's it.

    Meanwhile in, Venezuela is it? One of those S. American countries or a few of them, where we're told they're all happily running their cars on ethanol, it's more like 90% of the population never driving or riding a car, out chopping sugar cane in primitive conditions, so 10% can toodle around in their cars a bit - no where near the miles Americans put in.

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    1. Brazil, is the sugar cane ethanol. I agree with your theory. A large amount of oil used in it, like any other "alternate" fuel. At first Hubbert called for nuclear, although BREEDER reactors, then realized it wouldn't happen, and called for a new paradigm without growth. No wonder everyone hates him. Besides being right

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  7. Coal although necessary to have to mine it for usage, would be a swell prepper fuel for one's hermitage. If using up those soon worthless dollars, just order in a truck or few of coal dumped in your back fourty yard dug out bunker. (Screw that redoubt lumberjack fantasies when over 50 years old, duh) Tarp and dirt it over, then you have stored fuel for heat or cooking at the least for a long time without leaving the wire. The sulphur smell to it will mask the die off odors on the winds.

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    1. Not the worst idea. As long as you don't waste it keeping a McMansion comfortable

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  8. If you, oh-great-manned-one, state, "it took China twenty years of growth to run out of its coal.." that is not an assumption. That is a declarative sentence positing measurable data.
    Your assertion is not true. Coal still being mined in China, lots of it.

    Don't go all Bill Clinton on us and parse by saying something like, "IT DEPENDS ON WHAT THE DEFINITION OF 'IS', IS".

    Next...none of us minions really knows why China built "ghost cities". Lots of conjecture. Maybe it was regional Party Chiefs spending (& stealing) as billions of US$ sloshed around in abundance from trade imbalance.
    Maybe an attempt to absorb the inflationary impact of all those dollars while creating skill sets and infrastructure for future.
    Building "ghost cities" better than burning T-bills or employing millions to dig holes and others to fill holes (a lá '30s WPA/CCC), right? Those folks just inscructible.

    As for post WWII actions I didn't mean to imply it was purely charitable....it was cold hard rational calculus. Either we feed/rebuild Europe & Japan or else more chaos would emerge.
    The post war "wise men" made good, practical decisions. Good, not perfect.
    Pretty peaceful & prosperous going on 75 years in those two regions.
    However, that paradigm is fading. New data is upending the original calculus.
    We now live in Age of Disruption.

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    1. Okay, LOL, I'll try not to go Full Clinton. It was poorly written, period. But in my defense, didn't we JUST talk about how the ores and oil doesn't ever run out, it only gets uneconomic to extract? I think I was going for "the extra coal that allowed such huge growth was used, and now the coal is dwindling along with economic growth". I don't know. It's been over a week. I'll be the first to admit that I'm always working at improving my ability to communicate. Believe it or not, I used to be a lot worse. As for "declaritive sentence", I was responding generally to the six or seven points you made in your comment. You data dump, and I cannot respond to EVERY point. The US will never run out of oil. Colonel Drake's first well from 1859 ( pretty sure on the date ) is still dribbling ( kept alive as a historic site ). China will never run out of coal. They've been at it for, what, 1200 years? Longer? Its all about net energy, as I keep babbling. BUT! The US has already passed the point the oil we are producing is doing any good. We are running a 100to1/50to1 EROI nation on 7to1 EROI oil/fake fuel. China is experiencing economic issues from overcapacity, and etc., but shrinking coal supplies have a lot to do with. "Has run out" is hyperbolic, not meant literally. It was ill considered shorthand. And I was wrong. Now, please and thank you, let us return to doom and gloom :)

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    2. I just had a thought. The Chinese ghost cities that are built just like NYC or London etc could be used for military training. They could practice ops in those cities without leaving home. Kind of like our fake towns we train in, only modeled exactly after their target. They wouldn’t need to flush it out in detail, only wherever their rehearsal is for.

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  9. Energy is the key to our future. I find mine is best when I get a good nap on the weekend.

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    1. Capitalist pigs only nap on the weekend after oppressing the proletariat the other five days. This comrade likes to nap every day! All hail our Sino Overlords!

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  10. About that peak uranium . Not in the realm of general knowledge but the first week of Obamas reign of terror he shut down the Piketon project in Pike County Ohio . 1200 contractors working 7 day weeks at union wages to convert the old plant for a new purpose . A group of engineers had discovered how to recycle spent uranium using half the electricity it required to originally enrich it . The process rendered even higher enrichment and energy output than the first enrichment . My company had the 40 year contract to supply lifting and rigging equipment for the project . Barry shut it down and canceled the dept of energy loan his first week in the offal office . Hmmmmm????? It's almost as if the destruction of fusa is orchestrated huh ?

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    1. Can we blame that one on the Russians, too? LOL. Didn't Hilary get involved in Russian uranium? Fuzzy on the details, sorry. But someone would have lost money, right? It isn't an orchestrated collapse, that just comes quicker because greed accelerates the energy shortages

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  11. the road to hell is paved with politicians

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