Wednesday, November 27, 2019

slow, fast, instant 2


SLOW, FAST, INSTANT 2
One of the first problems with the Stair Step Collapse is that the model isn't even factual if you are looking at it historically. We were steady in the 50's, dipped slightly in the 60's, took a HUGE step down in the Seventies, then a giant step UP in the mid to late 80's, then another very large step UP for the 90's, a big step DOWN, a leveling off, a lot of small steps up until 2008, then a huge plunge down. That doesn't look like any stair well I know. And yes, the basic point of the Stair Step Collapse is that we collectively step down, then reach equilibrium, stay there awhile until the next step down.
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In other words, no problem is so big that we cannot adjust and go about our lives normally. This from the man that DID believe in Peak Oil and did follow the book “Overshoot” as, supposedly, his bible. Yet, he ignored the lessons of Peak, and the lessons of overshoot and sudden die-off. He was preaching to the widest audience, selling his brand of religion ( hugging trees ). And evidently, I'M the crazy one for NOT being religious, and a barbaric religion is preferable to no religion. Well, I'm hyperbolic. His religion was No Doom. That always sells well.
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Peak Oil is only no big deal if you ONLY look at the US, which had institutional mechanisms in place to restrict the production of oil. It looked like a very long process of depletion ( another model is that of Norway, even more conservative than America in its draw down, but that is rarely studied in an 'Murican-centric survival community ). The rest of the world was more boom and bust. Just look at Britain, which used its half of the North Sea oil to enrich London, pay off the anarchist hoodlums, and quickly resettle as many OtherColors and OtherReligions as they could before the economy collapsed, and now has too little energy.
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Look at failed narco state Mexico, which produced oil too quickly. Even look at Saudi Arabia, which very well could have False Flagged itself to hide the fact of plummeting production ( the war with Yemen was over getting THEIR oil ). More countries than not are well past their Peak Production. This didn't become a resource problem so much as it did an economic issue, as the lack of growth is the most dangerous condition central bank run economies can face.
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The premise of the book “Overshoot” ( a more stuffy academic book than not, but easy to slowly wade through as it is so fascinating ) was that ALL species overpopulate if excess resources are available, then die-off after overshooting the carrying capacity. The famous example is yeast in a vat. Greer highly recommended this book, yet ignored its obvious lessons completely. Over shooting your resource base is in no way a stairstep process.
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I'm not even sure I approve of our Italian friends Seneca Collapse. The model certainly fits, but I think his love affair with Gore Warming and his hero worship of Greta has scrambled his brain and unduly influenced his calculations. A failure in the ecosystem is a lot more devastating to most species of animals than it is to man, whose tool making and cultural adaptation and cooked meat fed brain makes him infinitely adjustable to change. As a species, we laugh at climate change. Not so much our non-naked companions.
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The Seneca Cliff is like a roller coaster, all the way up, slight pause and then a fast ride down. This is basically a boom and bust. He uses a lot of models such as animal populations and economic industries to make his point. The problem I have with it is that although it is in general a good guideline, in specifics it ignores a far longer timeline. I contend that a better model would be the growth phase, then the top which is much longer than implied. The top is indeed a “bumpy plateau”, but the general line is downward. Then, after a long period of Bumpy, a drastic drop.
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In other words, it is ALL downwards but extremely slow, until suddenly it isn't anymore and plunges. As I said, the Seneca Cliff is a close enough model, except for the velocity around the top, one of those details that might impact you, which makes a distinction important. Which is the only reason I argue against it. I think it is better to view the collapse as Slow, Fast, Instant. Yes, just another name for Waterfall Collapse, but it warrants its own articles, so renaming it is my ulterior motive.
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Another irritating Greer insistence was that you had two choices, a VERY slow and long collapse or an instant collapse. And since he mocked and derided Instant Collapse ( “ha, ha, look at all the ignorant arseholes that predicted The End Of The World” ), that only left long and slow. I myself do not think Instant Collapse, outside global nuclear war, or an asteroid, or solar flare/EMP or supervolcano, is very feasible either. No Rapture or what have you. But if a long downward collapse has already been happening, a plunge at the end IS probably assured.
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And yet another irritating truism ( I'm not sure who from ) was the “if you are unemployed it is a Depression, if your neighbor is unemployed it is a Recession”. That implies that despite certain people experiencing unfortunate accidents, that doesn't make for a collapse. Which is a very good way indeed to ignore the trends that point out an occurring collapse. For instance, if you just dismiss religious war in Sudan as “Africa Being Africa, primitive Sambo's, low IQ” ( or similar dismissive nonsense ), you don't quite get the famine issue underlying the conflict. Nor do you understand the lack of food aid being about the running out of grain reserves globally.
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When the constant steady direction of indicators is DOWN, even if it appears to almost have stopped, you more easily connect the dots of timing the collapse. No, no one can actually time the collapse, but you can at least know how much closer we are to danger. On the Stair Step model, there is the Hopium Illusion of staying steady. But, wait, Jim, you fair haired stud, you said the stairsteps were all up and down in severity, when you initially refuted that model. And so I did. For the US. Not so much for the globe.
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You will perhaps recall that our economic boom in the 90's was directly fueled by stealing the energy from Russia, who had a huge roll back in administered land and a big plunge in population though economic collapse. The 80's economic recovery of the US and Britain were the result of the last giant oil fields coming online ( there have been no “elephants” since then ), but the rest of the globe subsidized that and had less energy themselves as Iran and Iraq oil was largely curtailed from their conflict.
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Globally, per capita energy has been steadily decreasing since 1979. If we are blinded by our intermittent good luck, we ignore the continuous global decline. And our fortunes have been tied to the globe for a good many years. For fifty years, either ourselves or others have been in decline, a zero sum game where ones good fortune was paid for by another's misfortune. But overall, it has been a constant decline. Not a step down followed by no change, but a steady down hill journey. It was fifty years of a slow decline, but a much faster decline for almost the last fifteen of those fifty. We continue tomorrow, as we await the “instant” part of that so far Slow, then Fast, collapse.
( .Y. )
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28 comments:

  1. Right. I term it parallel economies or realities. I am encamped in Las Vegas, thus have eyes and boots on the ground of probably the most "Petri dish" of everything negative or jacked about 'Merica.

    1) There can be a near 1% percenter flogging it, obscene debauchery abound, not far proximity away, unimpeded by anything. 2) all around is the 9% percenters administering and enforcing shit at great pay and benefits packages to them. 3) greasing and tuning things is the next 40% percenters place holder's spot that bust ass and can only 'subsist' and squeek by in the decrepit and dying systems. 4) another 25% percenters are adapted leach bleeders of the above castes and chain systems, out of necessity to survive. 5) the lastly 25% percenters are a near hospice or dead man walking specimens, precariously hanging on by chance and circumstances with no frigging luck from lady luck at all.

    Where are you now, and those musical chairs can change under anyones ass at any time. Got wheat?

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    1. Damn, I love that % break down. I really am insulated up here, compared to you. An even better reason to not leave the compound.

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    2. Agreed, great breakdown! I'd place myself in the 40% set...bust my bawls to keep the front line employees from revolting and simultaneously make the boss look good to his boss... ZERO job satisfaction, but the pay is enough to keep a roof over the heads of the family, a packed pantry and even a few luxuries to keep me from going all Michael Douglas in "Falling Down"...for now at least ;-) Still saving for the junk land tho, had a little over $2k put up, then lo and behold, get a letter from the State of Crapifornia threatening wage garnishment over $2.5k in past due taxes. So, back in the f'n hole, back the the hamster wheel to keep earning the coin of the realm. Meanwhile tech workers in my 'hood throw down a $$million + for a house, then set contractors loose in it for 3-6 months BEFORE moving in, so they can have their "dream home". Surely this can't hold out much longer...

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    3. No, it can't last much longer. How it ever lasted past this point amazes me. Sure, bitches, hope for another fracking oil miracle. See how far that gets you

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    4. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/texas-oil-explorers-say-predictions-of-growth-contradict-dire-reality/ar-BBXpdjY?ocid=spartanntp

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    5. Falling down,

      with a full on Ted K.

      and some Dorner X 1,000.

      So way overdue.

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    6. Big outfitter of steel pipe ( used in oil industry ) closing facility in Texas. Fracking Forever!

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    7. I'm loving that percentage breakdown, and I would also fall in as a 40%er, but with a twist. I quit the rat race at 50, as planned, just as soon as that mortgaged property was paid-in-full. With my spouse continuing to work, and going along as planned, we were ready to be fully retired in 2008. But a funny (not haha-funny, queer-funny) thing happened and we got Obama.

      We're tail-end boomers who've been screwed over and over with rules and laws changing on us: tax games (no real deductibles for those in the 40% club), loss of savings income via interest, loss of Market profits due to rampant corruption, healthcare redistribution to fund the 1% and the oxygen-wasters... So, that retirement didn't happen until this February -- a full decade later.

      And now, almost the entire monthly Pension goes to medical insurance. I don't remember seeing ANY retirement planning take THEFT into those equations on how much to save for.

      In our case, we can be fully debt-free, own our place outright (as long as we can pay the increasing taxes), have Precious, be well prepared, heat/cook w/ our own wood, DIY, stock our BB&B, and even grow a bunch of what we eat, but we will NOT be allowed to continue on as we are today. We have never lived on a straight-line conntinuum. So, for us, it doesn't much matter if the collapse happens next month or next year. It doesn't much matter if it all comes down slow or fast, or in an instant. The Turning is here and I already realize I'll be living like it's 1810, ready or not.

      Modern Throwback

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    8. I'll have to try to remember to thank Fat Ass, baby momma, for pushing me into the lower class. I missed all your excitement. My parents are about in your boat. All going to crap, all being asset stripped, all the rules changing. Of course, like good little Cali refugees, they think if they just went back there all would be perfect. Nevada is too dry to support the river De Nile.

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    9. Sometimes you just can't fix bias, huh?

      I should also add that we're in the Southern state of Virginia, where The Turn may just take place sooner rather than later with our very own Mr. Blackface governor and his newly voted in Dem-squad heading towards confiscation. HIn a little more than a month, almost every Virginia County is enacting "Sanctuary" legislation for gun-owners.

      It never gets dull, only dumber...

      Modern Throwback

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    10. Nevada turned on a dime. Can't really plan around that one! Your fair state, same. Bear moved from Texas as it is already too dark of a shade of purple. Florida, where I almost bought land as it was rather pro-freedom, turned quick. Just when you think they can't get dumber...

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    11. Any state that touches California is a state where you should realize is going to go to shit.
      Just a matter of time.

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    12. Yep being a tail-end boomer is not fun. I think the break point was 1960. Get born before it as a boomer and all you ever had to do was show up. Born after it, and you're an X'er as far as your life will go.

      Las Vegas ..... I could probably do well there, doing as I do, as my "gig" or back-up, street music. No, not another goddamn guitar; geez everyone's sick of those things unless you're REALLY good. But when the party ends in Vegas, it'll end quick.

      Too bad really, because I could probably live a block at most from my "work place" on the strip or Fremont Street, eat cheap in the casinos, and save more money than I am in the cyberpunk dystopia that is the so-called "Silicon Valley".

      But I'm less than 3 years out from what I call "ripcord in hand" which means I can collect Social Security. Not at the full payout which I'm about 9 years from, but 3/4's of it anyway. So I'll be out of Silly Valley soon enough.

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    13. I'm not going to wait one second more for my Social Security than I have to. Wait too long and you get 100% of zero. RIGHT! As if it will be there in seven years! I guess I can hope, in my weaker moments.

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    14. 6:03-the problem is when the touching states then pollute the next state, domino style

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  2. Right. the different layers of society castes provide reality insulations. The gluttonous oil age inputs along with bankster manipulations have erected potemkin village fascades to fool us a little longer as show tickets to yuppie hopium dreams are still bought by upcoming proles.

    Like a cheezy ass Vegas stage production, sucks badly, but the only game to play by those without any other options.

    The resource demands and average folks expectation demands upon an imploding and self immolation destined system collapse is going to be it's own force in nature.

    Like nuclear fusion with a much messier after effects.

    Stay very Frosty.

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    1. So far, reported at least, Lebanon and China having several local bank runs in the last few weeks. Could be isolated incident, could be opening credits with large tub of popcorn for our viewing pleasure

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  3. US Steel is reopening a plant closed in 2016. They cite growth in the Permian. 140 new hires.

    https://www.recyclingtoday.com/article/us-steel-lone-star-texas-pipe-mill/

    Texas Pipe Supply announced this summer the purchase of 4 other pipe firms. I was raised around men who worked there. Long long experience in oilfield pipe. Big plant with serious rail yard. Reprocesses used drill pipe. Drove by couple months ago....yard absolutely STACKED with pipe being loaded.
    Why would they purchase other firms if prospects so dim?
    What the hell group of banks would go along and syndicate the purchase loan if things look so bad? Don't you think the loan syndicate committee has access to experts, too?

    You got to ask basic questions and actually see what is going on.

    https://www.supplyht.com/articles/102474-texas-pipe-supply-acquires-four-companies

    I'll stand by the industry insight of above two companies against any crap that Bloomberg News and MSN prints. Did you read the MSN article? Kinda amorphous. No hard numbers, just the general moan and groan of guys who bet big and lost. But they blame entire industry "trends" rather than their specific actions. Typical no cites, no numbers. Just crap to feed the guillable.
    Par for the course.

    I'll leave Minions with this...

    https://www.rigzone.com/news/us_on_its_way_to_energy_independence-26-nov-2019-160438-article/

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    1. I'll just make two points. Companies make idiotic decisions at every turn. If you look at them like some Randian rational beast of unicorn status, you'll be disappointed. And, banks have been subsidizing fracking from the very beginning. Everyone thinks it is investors, happy to continue losing money. Why would they? It was the bankers, keeping energy flowing into the economy to prop up everything else making them money. I don't read MSM for economic news. Prostitutes, all of them. And reading Bloomberg, you are supporting an anti-gun campaign.

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  4. Priorities man, that's the f@cking problem. My 25 year old nephew, has never had a job, was at my parents tonight with my sister. He was crying about a video game he wanted, NOW. My sister is telling him he has to wait for Christmas. HOLY CRAP, I was so sick and pissed off having to set around and listen to this shit. It was a conversation you have with a five year old, not a 25 year old. I wanted to snap his neck and kick his ass down to Mickey D's, while telling him to at least try to act like a man and not a pussy. I also wanted to slap my sister for raising her son to be such a piece of garbage, I mean read a damn child rearing book. I blame her for allowing this to happen. I had a damn job at 15, because I wanted to leave home as fast as I could get out. I went to the bar for the first time in years, to have a drink because I couldn't stand my own family.
    So these are the people to have my back SHTF. I'm supposed to let them in (my ferro fortress of doom) and trust and care for them.
    How about a big hell no, ain't ever gonna happen. If they were to show up at my land I will turn them away, I might be a monster.
    Holy cow I already need to get back to the woods. Demented Guy

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    1. Now you'll appreciate the FFOD ( love that one! ) all the more. Yep, family can do that to you. Not looking forward to mine. Not because they are bad, but because I have to be good. Too early for "bah-humbug"?

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    2. Demented guy - no shit. I'm gonna get on my late-50s high horse here and say, WTF is up with the kids? Some are handy, most don't know which end of a screwdriver to pick up. I've overheard kids in their 20s talking about their fear of getting away from the apron strings, and I'm like, Wow, at 18 I was on my own, own place, holding down a crappy job, etc.

      Maybe they'll learn when times get tougher, I dunno. The problem is they're miserable and it's not because of anything the outside world is doing *to* them; the outside world doesn't give a shit.

      Signed, the kid who liked getting lumps in their oatmeal, they were chewy treats!

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    3. Are you channeling Bill Cosby, with the oatmeal? It was cream of wheat with him, but great comedy album. I'm surprised I never wore the record out. I think the poor guy got a bum rush here, lately. I guess it was finally revenge time for all the White boys who didn't like his success.

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    4. "I guess it was finally revenge time for all the White boys who didn't like his success.”


      Actually Jim, it would make much more sense that it had more to do with what he said about his fellow blacks (and I do believe that he critiqued Obama as well, but don’t quote me on that). For you see, after that, he was an “uncle Tom”, and we all know that commiecrats only tolerate blacks as long as they’re well behaved blacks that don’t stray from the democratic plantation. I forgot exactly what it was that he said, but as I recall, he basically said that most blacks were fuck ups (You’re getting my raw version of it. I do believe that he said it a bit nicer :D )

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    5. Yeah, your take makes much more sense. I hadn't realized those details.

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  5. Anon 8:22: I remember it. Cosby said he was sick and tired of blacks who can't or won't speak English. "How are you?" → "How you is?" IIRC he actually got some applause for that from his black audience. The video is/was on Youtube somewhere.
    As for drugging women in order to get them into bed, there were a lot of accusations. Smoke = fire? Probably.

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  6. Peter Turchin, who you may be aware of, his latest being Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton Studies in Complexity), I think misses some of the broader picture, put has a 50 year cycle that at least has the advantage of having a mechanism and a time line.

    These are relatively short term (50 year) and sociological (population rise and generational dynamics) issues playing out. So your missing issues of environment change, pollution, resource depletion, and a few others. But it's pretty hard to argue with his mass of evidence.

    His prediction from pre-Trump 2010, has been, and seems to be playing out, that we are due for some serious issues in the 2020s.

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    1. Loved his broader audience book "War & Peace & War". Read it a few times. His other crap? Nerd in love with math. I view the 20's as problematic due to three forces converging. English 54 year wheat cycle, solar minimum ( NOT Ice Age ) and Olduvai Theory. Hope I'm wrong

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