Tuesday, November 5, 2019

L.T.F.M. 2


LOW TECH FORCE MULTIPLIER 2
If you ever want to eliminate the need for all your tools and trades being dependent on infrastructure, you'll have to revert to Primitive Tech, or Stone Age tech. And since metal is a military ratchet technology, you probably really don't want to do that if at all possible. The Amerindians saw how wonderful steel was, but then, they also saw how super firearms were, and look how dependent that made them on trading with the White Devils. And trade wasn't even the bottleneck. It was lacking the infrastructure to feed and repair higher tech.
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We survivalists with our stockpiled lifeboats are in the same position as the indigenous population was. We have no infrastructure to support our tools. And trade makes you vulnerable. Look how vulnerable we were to the dictates of the Crown over trade. Remember how food rationing went into the 1950's in Britain, after she foolishly “farmed” out her food production to the Commonwealth nations? Recall how we spend a trillion dollars a year to keep control of the middle east so we have enough fuel to grow our own food? And the sad part is, we voluntarily allowed our fertilizer production infrastructure to shrink.
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The biggest strategic issue we are going to have is dismantling our infrastructure. Since the central bank runs our country, and since banks only care about money rather than security, everything was optimized for profit. Natural gas goes up in price? Oops! Bottom line in danger! Danger, Will Robinson, danger! Profit loss ahead! No problem, let the UAE or Qatar or such use its much cheaper gas to manufacture half of our national supply of artificial fertilizer. What could possibly go wrong?
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Oh, I don't know, perhaps that Food Is First! It wasn't bad enough that we are reliant on trade for our energy supply ( a “mere” 33% now, but back up to near 70% without fracking ), we had to endanger a big chunk of our food supply as well. If you have an industry, a infrastructure, and it is losing money in an economic downturn or during war, you can always nationalize it. You can keep it going. If it is overseas, that makes things a little more difficult. You should NEVER give potential enemies the keys to the front gate. But we did.
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It wasn't JUST about profit, although I'm sure that was the biggest consideration. It is also about falling net energy and falling energy per capita. As energy supplies contract, every bit of infrastructure must be maintenance deferred or outright dismantled. We usually look at it in dollar terms, and that is fine as long as you remember that money is backed by energy, ultimately. Even before oil, you needed food to feed slaves to mine the ore and wood to process the ore, to make weapons or machines-calories and wood is energy ( gold and silver are mere universal trading chits ).
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Recall that the Spanish rapine in the New World caused massive inflation back in Europe. And yet, California, Australia and South African's massive gold supply increase did not. At that time, increasing energy in the form of coal was simply met with that new supply of trading chits. And the gold mined in the last century, which was only possible with oil, due to its extremely diffuse nature, the necessity to process huge amounts of rock to reach the ore, went down in price-deflation-as the oil glut goosed the energy side.
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Ultimately it is all about energy for society, micro amounts of energy-calories-for the smallest units of human organization. Do you think it was any accident that during the 80's and 90's inflation fell as energy supplies came online anew, and that the last decade has seen inflation surge as we replace high net energy with low net? Homey don't think so. Lack of energy means-what? Infrastructure maintenance differed or dismantled. When we go Civilization Tits Up, that means your energy supply crashed. So what happens to the infrastructure that maintains your tools? That big tool, the environmental protection structure, is outright obsolete, barely worth salvage.
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When the oil from Saudi Arabia stops flowing ( and not by CIA drones this time, to keep the Sauds firmly in the PetroDollar camp, but by actual depletion ), your Happy Motoring days are fini, and all that personal transportation infrastructure just on your end, is now scrap price. See how easy it is to have the tools, but not the infrastructure for the tools? Without the Internet, how functional is your personal computer? As preppers, we warehouse our own supplies, the Alpha Strategy going a LONG way towards reducing our vulnerability. Alas, that just buys us time.
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Which is fine. There is no easy solution, just Least Worst ones. The Afghans did fine without arms manufacturing or ammunition factories, trading opium to continue maintaining their supply for repair, refurbish and recycling. But they also had an infrastructure for that, tribal trading networks into Pakistan. That infrastructure decreased their trade vulnerability. What survivalists SHOULD do, is to seek ways to reduce their vulnerability to supply without infrastructure, also. One very good reason to adopt the AR-15 is because the supply infrastructure is already in place. Is it a great firearm? No. Especially not for post-apocalypse. It is a souped up rimfire with the same fragility.
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But you won't run out of spare parts, will you? If the total global supply of AK-47's has been of sufficient supply to wage war throughout Africa and middle east continuously for decades, then half that amount of AR's in the US will be enough to keep the survivors here armed up far longer, much longer than the ammunition supply lasts. The AR is preferable for exactly ONE reason. It's infrastructure. It is the same reason you go with a Ford F-150 pickup truck, even if it isn't the best vehicle. It has an infrastructure.
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The reason you didn't run a diesel engine vehicle back in the 70's or even the 80's was the lack of refueling stations. It sometimes, depending on your location, didn't matter that it was a vastly superior engine ( as diesel fuel became available everywhere, regulations and computerization made the engine crappier ). Even in '91 I was driving out to a county fueling station for diesel, from a town of around 30k. Or, how about a better example. How many of you can drive down to a feed and grain supply, for some wheat? It ain't easy, is it? You not only need to be in farm country, but at the counties one supply location. Lack of infrastructure.
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UPS used to be about the only way to get resupplied in rural areas, for anything the mom & pop store didn't stock. Wonder why it was so easy for Wal-Mart ( spit, spit ) to put them out of business? It wasn't JUST low prices. Buying through the mail and paying UPS shipping wasn't exactly cheap. It was the fact you could actually find everything there you needed. They established an infrastructure. Of course, they also sowed the seeds of their own demise.
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When your business model is largely Everyday Low Transportation Cost, and then shipping crap from China and bouncing it around the US continent no longer is cheap, you tend to lose your biggest advantage and start cannibalizing your customers for profits being lost. The older model, using the infrastructure still in place, the mail order companies, start making a comeback. The niche businesses start up again, and the department store model devolves back to the Railroad Delivery Model ( how Sears and Monkey Wards got so big ). Suddenly, inventory is no longer a cost to be avoided but a profit center.
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Eliminating the higher tech Just In Time Inventory with its once dirt cheap but now increased cost transportation, going lower tech, becomes a winner.
Continued tomorrow
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click HERE )
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50 comments:

  1. Following along, solid backgrounder points Jim.

    I am seeking real estate property in ruralvilles somwhere to retire out. I am kinda hoping I can stumble upon an old couples type of homestead where the widow is selling off to go live with the kids in the warmer sunbelt. Perhaps she would be overwhelmed with moving anything in the patriarch's workshop and included a tool workshop set up bonanza in the property deal. Hmm, on the lookout for that one.

    As a resource preservation note to all 3 percenter heroz, the technician, craftsmen, geezers with lots of smarts and tools types do not go out on front line duty, that is for sacrificial bodies. In the rear with the gear they stay with strategic reserves. That valuable come collapse.

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    1. And, as a bonus, REMF's also are usually captured and enslaved rather than just killed after invasion.

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    2. Right that. It is like old roller derby competitions where players swap jerzees to another team and go to battle with new tribe mates against everyone and the referees too. Ha!

      Be that valuable commodity player post apocalypse.

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  2. Once again a home run. Your comment about the fertilizer was as big an eye opener as your ROI was to me back then!

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    1. Sometimes I don't know when I'm flogging a dead horse, or when I'm reporting what is obvious to me but not to anyone else who doesn't study this stuff all day. Glad it helped.

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    2. With all this farmers yammering about tarriffs and bad weather, it should be a blessing and they should just leave the land fallow or throw cover crops out to replenish some of america's dead soils. As such it should be part of an s.o.p. rotation if they cared about their own land, anyhow. Collapse it already, so we can decentralize to healthy normal lifestyles. Farm not factory foods. Actual butcher shops. Actual bakers, legit merchant class, Etc. Just thinking out loudly....

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    3. By and large, corporations own or at least control most of the farmland, which is funded by the bankers. Neither group gives two runny craps about soil or conservation or sustainability. Just money. Plan on the coming famine accordingly.

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    4. My radar is picking up a lot of theming of topics towards food, famines, etc. (Jim is even referenced by Remus, etc!) I am not too far out into the web or social circles but either it is topic de jure or fad subject, or more folks are starting to oh shit! & getting concerned over it all of the sudden.

      Not too spastic yet, but........

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    5. Oddly, I'm lukewarm on the Grand Solar Minimum ( get it? Pun ) or the MidWest Flood Will Kill Us All latest scares. I don't buy any processed crap with tons of soy or corn in it, but all I saw at the store was sugar up 10%. Now, in conjunction with Civil War II, yeah, call me more worried. Regardless, it shouldn't be on anyone's radar, if they just stock up on cheap eats already.

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  3. Speaking of Walmart, I just heard last night that Walmart.com has surpassed the traffic of Amazon.com, at least during the current Christmas sales. This sort of caught me off guard, as it’s tough to beat Amazon’s service (Sale what you will about that bald headed commie bastard Bezos, but he offers one mean service. Even after taking that giant family court dildo, dry, to the tune of half his fortune
    :D )

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    1. Well, when you have several BILLIONS, what is half of that? I do agree, Amazon rocks as a customer. They actually offer good products, unlike Wally which is all substandard crap. Plus, the Wally web site is beyond terrible. Perhaps all the homeless Yuppies living in their cars can't get a post delivered, but can go down to the Wally pick-up? :)

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    2. Agreed, the Wally web site is beyond awful, and their delivery service sux bawls compared to Amz. Although,that's interesting to note about them bypassing Bezos & Co, Just last night I went to your wally wheat link to order another couple buckets and they are SOLD OUT! Take a bow Lord Bison, all your hollerin' about wheat seems to be getting through, to the point that your long time minions are now late to the table!!

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    3. Yes Jim, on wally being an urban-burban hub for the now larger sized underclass folks. (Me too only on that count) they transfer monies, sell money orders, take layaway, gift carding rackets, drop ship pick ups, carside web order pick ups, etc. Dollar store and wally castes=80% percenters. Target and amazon for the 9% percenters caste. Society is dividing up pre collapse, in many ways.

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    4. Wally used to always have wheat. Now they are off and on. Don't panic, it is just that Wally stocking in stores on online is the same-rolling shortages from cheapness and incompetence, not necessarily indicative of general nationwide availability.

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    5. Being a ripe old age of 58 I mainly stock oatmeal being it is so plentiful.
      Figure I won't live long enough after the collapse to worry about complete proteins.
      Bonus: oatmeal helps you be REGULAR. lol

      2:48

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    6. You want to poop? Eat a little too much whole wheat that day.

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    7. 3:06-are you sure about the Amazon being with Target for Yuppie Scum? It seems poor folk would flock to Amazon, like I do.

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  4. We all should probably be practicing low tech with food and beverages every once in awhile too. Just to toughen us up for the Big Event.

    I was 17 years old back in the early 80's when I did my first wilderness backpacking hike for 5 days with a half dozen others. I had only water to drink, and I fancied myself as being a real Rambo. By the 3rd day I would have killed for a can of Coca-Cola. It was a great learning experience for me to find out how 'soft' I actually was.

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    1. Military Basic wasn't as bad. C Rations made regular chow hall food taste good and we were so sleep deprived we put all mental energy in just surviving. But afterwards, yeah, I realized what a pussy I'd been.

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    2. +1 on some level of mastery with the stone age skills.I am a believer in supplementing my foods with weeds. I rodeo the bigger grasshoppers, freeze em for 20 minutes to send them to bug heaven then fry up in olive oil. Past few years I have achieved a working level of knapping out television glass ( which is getting a bit harder to find but still there on side of road at trash day)still working on perfecting my snares and dead falls, and experimenting with what makes good to great cordage. Most days I really admire what my ancestors did without the information and knowledge I have. I would like to think most everyone in this room would be the type that when pursued, would be so much trouble to capture they would mumble, "Let that sumbitch go, he's obviously crazy anyway. He'll died out there." I feel a Chato's Land and Death Hunt movie binge approaching. I remember those 3 or 5? cigarette packs in my ol'mans C-rat packs. Salem or Winston maybe Camel.Those were cute, so was the chiclet gum.The Cocoa power and coffee I remember to this day, real stuff. memories...sigh. Good reading Bison.

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    3. We could still smoke in Basic when I was in. $2 cartons of generics on base. Still part of the culture. And yet, never got any cigs in the C-Rats. I felt cheated.

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    4. Oh geez the smoking in Basic .... if they didn't invent "hotboxing" they certainly perfected it.

      I used to take C-rat coffee, cream, and sugar, mix 'em in one bag, and chug the mixture dry. Not all at once, I'd keep it in my pocket for a "nip" until it was gone.

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    5. We all had pockets full of sugar packets, huffing those all day to stay awake.

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  5. Quoted above: "The Amerindians saw how wonderful steel was, but then, they also saw how super firearms were, and look how dependent that made them on trading with the White Devils."

    Antifa now sees how wonderful steel is as reports indicate they are getting arms and training.

    Why don't FFL's discriminate in who they sell to? When I go to a gun range or when I went for pistol safety/tactical trainings, I don't assume that all of the people there will be my friend when the rubber meets the road. I do like the ability to discriminate, even if it means losing a few bucks.

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    1. White boys aren't allowed to discriminate. Toxic male!

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    2. Off topic:
      What carbohydrates that do not require cooking will store for a long time. They do not have to be frugal but not overly expensive either.

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    3. You can eat Top Ramen raw. I've done it many a time, no ill effects. You can throw water in instant mashed potatoes, doesn't even need to be hot. Oatmeal is terrible not cooked, but you could choke it down. I assume you mean buy now, never cook if necessary. If so, this doesn't really fit, but might be close. Roast whole kernel wheat or corn in a skillet, dry. When brown, you are done. Cool, then grind in your Victoria ( or, I suppose, try a regular blender or a coffee mill ). You can eat the "flour" as is, and it stores for some time ( not sure how long, though ). I read to put in a cup of water, or throw in your mouth dry and then chase with water. I either choke on the dust or have a hard time swallowing ( no blow job jokes please ), but it is an option for healthy filling no cook trail food the ancestors used. I'd image it is best coupled with jerky. It did hit my gut hard, with just one serving, but I'd have to experiment more to see how I digested/handled it. Or, it just might be I'm getting too old to surprise my abused stomach like that. Anyway, for what its worth.

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    4. The old timers used to grow and store turnips, often in the basement, for livestock feed over the winter. They were so easy to grow, and kept well. Of course eventually, someone wised up to the fact that those suckers made for some mighty tasty human food as well.

      Super easy to grow, even when you know nothing about gardening. In addition to the tuber being high in carbs, the greens are very nutritious as well. If you have a long term storage need beyond winter storage, maybe slice em thin, and dry them under screens. Sort of a turnip potato chip if you will. Baby turnips can be eaten raw, as is.

      The pinole that Jim mentioned, is perhaps the easiest option, but requires roasting the corn kernels.

      http://tacticalintelligence.net/blog/how-to-make-pinole.htm

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    5. Tried said turnip-I'm under no illusion they are anything other than cattle fodder. But then, aren't we all different on food preferences?

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    6. Buy and read "The Antifa Manual" or at least read reviews ... the idea behind Antifa is to vote so you don't have to demonstrate, demonstrate so you don't have to break windows, break windows so you don't have to go all-out, etc. It's got some pretty noble roots, unless (and I suspect that among survivalists this is increasingly the case) since antifa, or anti-fascism is bad, it follows that of course fascism is good. Hitler and Mussolini and Franco, etc admirers. All hoping they'll get that sweet slot in the S.S. or at least the Brownshirts, utterly unaware that those slots go to the connected college boys, and their own lives will get a LOT harder under fascism.

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    7. Soak and sprout your basic Bison wheat. Once it has begun to sprout it can be eaten as is. Alternately the young sprouts can be ground before eating using a food processor or blender, but I prefer using an old hand crank meat grinder. Grind as soon as you see tails. If they get much longer than about 1/2 a grain length, they start to taste grassy.

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    8. Alex-are you SURE fascism isn't an improvement over our current system? They didn't have central banker control, and there was better employment.

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  6. just discovered that the BANK OF CANADA will not be accepting old bills after 2021.thats including up to 1986 issued bills.shades of sweden where this happens regularly,gotta love them banksters.no more money stashed for long term

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    1. Yeah, probably best to limit the cash stashed to the absolute minimum.

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    2. Just under the Feds alert signal. 9000

      2:48

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    3. Except, if they want, they can add up all the Under amounts, add them together and call you a criminal.

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    4. Exactly. The "crime" is Structuring deposits and withdrawals to avoid the trigger to fill out the form mandatorily (Know Your Customer encourages suspicion filings). It's not your money. Look at it: Federal Reserve Note. Not United States Note, or Silver Treasury Certificate. Not your money.

      Pdxr13

      Ammo and silver in your hand is actually yours.

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    5. Time to stash away those Maple Leafs or Kruggerands or something.

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    6. Silver, dammit! SILVER!!! Do I regret being an alarmist in 2004 and buying $6 silver? No. I'm glad I panicked early and avoided the rush. Buy silver now. Even if it takes too long to shoot to the moon as I am convinced of, you aren't going to get it cheaper ( cost of production is a floor on the price, and Peak Diesel means mining costs just increase ).

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    7. Pdx-thank you, I couldn't remember the name for it. Yeah, already law that the bank doesn't owe you your money. Got wheat?

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  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. Relatives just get the benefit of the doubt, at least at first before they prove what idiots they are. You are part of the 13% Club, and THEY are jealous??? Tells you how irrational folks will act come collapse.

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  8. Anonymous 10:45 AM
    Per YouTube channel "Ice Age Farmer," the US is out of cover-crop seed due to the historically cool temperatures from the Grand Solar Minimum. This is worse than a fallow year, minimal to no cover crops.

    Low-tech "forever BIC"
    https://www.amazon.com/11-75-Fresnel-Magnifier-Projection-PREMIUM/dp/B00IITFX02/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=fresnel+lens&qid=1572993988&sr=8-1
    These are so much more powerful than the credit-card size fresnel lenses. Pretty much instant fire on any wood that's even close to dry. If your firewood is damp, you can adjust the beam size by proximity/angle to dry it out instead of attempting direct ignition. Get at least one at home for daily fire starting, another hidden away in a disaster-proof storage location, and another for your emergency pack. Try to arrange it in your pack so that it has support and isn't being flexed by the curvature of your body or items in the pack.

    CREDIT FREEZE ALERT!
    In late September, the Fed started supporting the REPO market with $75 Billion per day to maintain banking liquidity, but it was only supposed to last until October 11. They had days where it was up to $110 Billion per day. They then reset the daily assistance to $120 Billion. Apparently that's not enough either, as it's now up to a minimum of $190 Billion per day, "well into 2020." There's also an unconfirmed rumor out there that Deutsche Bank went bankrupt yesterday, which could be the domino that knocks down the rest of the system. Short explanation for a credit freeze, businesses buy mostly everything on short-term credit, which will stop, meaning they can't get inventory, trucks and trains stop transporting, EVERYTHING stops, and you can't get money out of the bank. I really hope Mr. T can hold it together until the next election, but it's seeming less likely.

    Also, one of the contributors here has decided that they REALLY like using my sign-off, Peace out, so I've come up with a new one. No hard feelings :-)
    Romans 14:11

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    1. I noticed the $190 figure today. Oddly, the normal doom and gloomers didn't have anything new to say about that. I thought it was "crap your pants worthy", myself. Do you recall where you heard about Douche Bank? Was it ZeroHedge? If so, I'll have to start going back there. None of my YouTube economics guys I watch daily mentioned it.

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    2. https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/claim-germany-s-deutsche-bank-has-reportedly-filed-bankruptcy

      I found this linked at random. I've never heard of this guy before or know anything about his credibility.
      Romans 14:11

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    3. "Ice Cube Gardener" is a fraud and denier. He shadow banned me after I repeatedly showed multiple different sources showing record supplies of corn and soy resulting from past 7 or so years of ever increasing harvest.
      In fact, so much excess corn that elevators too full and emergency retaining walls 4 feet high & covering what looked to be about 1/2 acre were built to store excess corn on THE GROUND uncovered at just one facility in MN iirc last year.

      As for no cover crop seed...bullsh*t. Pure and simple. Go online to www.greencoverseed and order all you want today.
      Almost all clover and ryegrass variety covers come out of Willamette Valley in OR. Absolutely no shortages. Some price increase in "bin run" (no variety specified) cereal rye. Bin run cereal rye one of most common covers in Corn Belt but shortages due to Canadian production issues. The normally pricier specified varieties still available.
      In reality, little ground in US has covers planted to it unless mandated by USDA operating loan reqs on highly erodible land. Some highly motivated farmers do so on own volition but probably less than 10% of corn/soy ground has a cover sown on it.
      Also, any seed shortages are covered by imports from EU, Argentina and NZ (espec clovers & ryegrasses).

      Ice Cube Gardeners knowledge of commercial ag is about as accurate and helpful as the peak oil, anti fracker chicken littles who deny actual certified production records (cough cough).

      On a side note....US natural gas derived nitrogen fertilizers are more abundant and cheaper than EVER thanks to fracking.
      So much nat gas is coming from Permian Basin frack wells that the wells only operate for a couple weeks per month. Firms dont have infrastructure to separate, store and transport the associated gas. Companies are limited by law as to how much they can "flare off" as waste. Back in Sept(?) gas levels were at record 600 MCF. No place to store and existing customers have no need for extra. As a result the wells are closed per their licensing agreements with Tx RailRoad Commission (oversee oil production).

      Such an abundance of gas now and projected for next several decades is why huge new polyethylene (& other products) plants are in planning and early stage construction along Texas coast.
      Probably more gas is produced via fracking than oil. As a result, electricity prices in US will continue to slide down as huge supplies of gas lower generating costs. Coal will be badly hurt as remaining plants switch to cheaper gas.

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    4. Romans: thanks, I'll check it out ( I like to think I have a decent BS detector now, so his obscurity shouldn't be an issue ).
      ***
      Anon-glad to see you are back. Yes, I got the snark on Peak Oil :) Just keep in mind that natural gas so cheap, and being more abundant than the oil they are trying to get means that MORE money is lost pumping. Not a huge issue, the central bank has subsidized the fracking industry since the beginning. As long as we can keep throwing free money their way we'll keep pumping. Just pay no attention to the liquidity crises the banks are having right now ( shades of 2008, in this and many other indicators ). I share your skepticism on the solar minimum alarmists ( we agree on something! ). I think they MIGHT be closer to the truth than the Gore Warmers, but are still operating with questionable data. You are a huge pain in my ass, but I love that you are here with your industry know how and logic ( even if you are an optimist ).

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  9. One 20' railroad rail will provide enough steel to make 80 AR 15 barrels. The bituminous ties under that rail will provide enough heat to manipulate that steel into what you want it to be. Priced anvils lately? They're on the moon. My "anvil" for the past almost 40 years is an 8" section of railroad rail that my dad got from his father. I have another one about 6" long I got at a farm sale about 10 years ago for $8. You can beat the hell out of em and they take it and beg for more. Find one if you can, comes in handy all the time.

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