Wednesday, November 20, 2019

50% retail


50% RETAIL
A little while ago I made a comment that went something like “we probably don't have 70% of the economy as consumption anymore”. My point was that as the number of people in the work force is now UNDER the amount during the housing bubble collapse, which is a wee bit odd considering immigration and births, less jobs mean less money means less retail sales. You poor deluded fool, the retail apocalypse has ZERO to do with Amazon. That company is seeing declining revenue itself, now, right before Christmas. And half of ALL online sales are OTHER than Amazon.
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I've been harping on that one for some time. Amazon is not stealing enough business from retailers to close their doors. If you think about it, who in the name of all that is good and just actually wants to buy clothing online, where they cannot try it on? Do you REALLY, Honest Injun, think that bitches don't need to try on clothing to see if it makes their butts look too big? Do you even know any females? Do you even know of all that many DVD's that sell on Amazon as cheap as the Wal-Mart $3.98 bin? And that doesn't even include the shipping cost.
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You do understand that a lot of retail businesses closing their doors are actually clothing stores, yes? The exact merchandise people want to see in person before buying. You have noticed Amazon is experimenting with opening some retail stores, right? Why would they do that, if it was a money losing proposition? They are probably throwing money at retail and shipping infrastructure because of falling sales, and they are desperate to keep their stock price elevated. Bezos has a divorce to pay for.
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250 million people age eligible to be workers. 95 million of those without work. 38% unemployment. Now, I grant you, some of those permanently without work are on the gray market, earning a few spare bucks by whatever means ( although it sure ain't from YouTube anymore ). Some are students from rich parents. But they sure as God made little green apples are not employed in the conventional sense and are more than likely earning close to dingus. No matter how many folks are not truly unemployed but rather under employed, the unemployment rate is STILL most likely worse than the 1930's.
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But here is the point. People making from no to very little money don't go out shopping at retail stores. They don't go shopping at Amazon. They are lucky to go grocery shopping. They don't buy cars, which is why the percentage of the economy devoted to manufacturing has taken a giant wet crap lately ( it also ties in to the global collapse of manufacturing from overcapacity, so that even paying Mexicans $3 an hour building cars there is impacted. It is NOT about wages, but demand of price inflated goods ). They are NOT consumers! Not as was traditionally the norm for 75 years.
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Going on my daily trek over to Market-Ticker, I read that government spending ( just federal ) is 20% of the GDP. We know medical USED to be 20%, which is slightly higher now as the only employment numbers growth were in that industry ( plus the ObammyCare demand ). Manufacturing has slipped below 10%. By my common core math, that means consumption slipped to below 50% of the economy. From seventy! Holy Friggin Crap, Batman! It is a miracle ( that, and the hundreds of billions the federal reserve to pumping into the stock market ) we don't have MORE retail closures.
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Now, I'm not going to scream about hyperinflation. After the tens of TRILLIONS that the central bank pumped into the economy since 2008 ( both global and local ), we should have seen a butt ton more inflation than just triple and quadruple increases in prices ( as if that wasn't bad enough, at reduced hours and frozen wages ). Ever since derivatives and market intervention started becoming standard practice, all my studies in economics have been rendered moot. I don't pretend to understand. With not only money and credit creation, AND additional numbers of countries abandoning the Petro Dollar, we should have seen more inflation.
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I'm not complaining, you understand. Perhaps the fracking oil growth put a brake on that. Perhaps the Fed is smarter than I give them credit for and they know how to hide inflation better than the 1970's. Perhaps we should just be thankful for the reprieve and understand our luck won't hold indefinitely. Rather than being fearful of worse inflation, what has me concerned right now is that huge drop in consumption. From 70% to 50%. That isn't a sneeze, that is more like barnyard flu. We see semi-truck freight down significantly. Rail and ship freight down.
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We see medical and government up, and they produce nothing of value. The government is in charge of stealing from Peter to pay Paul, and the medico's are in charge of asset stripping a lifetime of savings and investment in exchange for killing you early ( but with a smile on your face from an overdose of opium ). That is NOT an economy that does anything other than self-destruct. Manufacturing is near worthless, because the rest of the world won't buy our crap the bean counters designed. And Americans can't buy it because there are no jobs.
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Americans can't even buy Chinese crap, and the ChiComs see their economy shrink ( but at least they are nor seeing negative rates of growth like we are, just less regular growth than they were used to ). Retail and consumption has been the only growth in jobs ( outside medical and gov ) for decades. That was the only things replacing industry, on a large enough scale to matter. And now, that is being destroyed. It will not be too long before the only jobs remaining belong to the 9% overseer class. Employment for the Deplorables is moving to a temporary, part time, casual paradigm.
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This isn't any more doom-y and gloomy than normal. I don't mean to imply massive famine from lack of funds or anything like that. All I am doing is refuting even more lies and “statistics” that paint the truer picture economically. Plenty of folks are living with parents, living on Food Stamps and drug deals, living on their college grant money for living expenses, are on straight up welfare, or combinations thereof. A lot of that government spending is a de facto substitute for employment. I'm just saying, hey, things are, employment wise, worse than 1929 or 2007, so be very aware and very cautious.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click HERE )
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29 comments:

  1. I buy very few garments and shoes in person any more, for at least 15 years now. Why? People. I know my sizes, they don't change much. There have been a few times when stuff was sent back, but not many considering. Since UPS picks up right here in the driveway I don't have to drive 2 hours back and forth the return stuff.

    The DVD bargain bin at Walmart? Are you sick man? It's a biohazard with all the misfits of society pawing all over that stuff. I either buy DVD's from amazon or stream what I want to watch. Less human contact the better.

    Thing is, other than food and ammo, I buy very little. At age 64 I already have most everything I want or need. So spending on "stuff" happens very little around here. Just looked, I've made 24 purchases from amazon this year. Last purchase was a few days ago, (2) 6 packs of Gildan briefs. If I like em I'll order 2 more. I made that purchase here at my desk and didn't have to put up with irritating assholes on the road or in the store. win-win

    I imagine a day when people will be scarce. Troubles will be few, and manageable.

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  2. Show of hands...
    How many remember the nifty lapel-buttons promoted by fUSA ex-president G. Rudolf Ford during the 1970s?

    "Whip Inflation Now!"

    I am the least-political person you will meet, verging on 'anti-political'.
    I am also the least inclined to trust bankers.
    And, somehow, I instantly knew if I wore a lapel-button proclaiming my involvement in 'inflation whipping', some wisen-hymer would equate that with sexual practices of deviants and perverts and the basement handcuff crowd.

    I know I would.

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    1. I'm probably wrong, but I could swear the picture I remember ( I'm not THAT old, being like 9 years old at the time ) was just the acronym, WIN. Who doesn't want to WIN?

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    2. I think someone could make a killing selling the old bumper sticker from 1972 "president Nixon, now more than ever"!

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    3. Good, but better:
      https://cthulhuforamerica.com/signage/

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  3. Correct Jim. Just as a reiteration of a shadow stats form of real deal data, there is a whole catalog of cause and effects of the collapsing economies and follow on systems. I refer to my own "out in the streets", view of things and experiences. The Zoomers 45-65, and deplorable castes are professionally and economically sidelined, only to open up scraps of positions to new generations and immigrants to integrate them into the beast systems as well. The oil age largess remnants, and banker-.gov debt infusions are barely triaging the hospice patient economy and society systems.

    It is time past for the real punishments to begin.

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    1. "gov debt infusions are barely triaging" Which is why this current "repo market" bail out is so scary. It means we are very near the end

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  4. "Okay, let us please remember that THE GOV LIES". (Jim Dakin 11-19-19).

    "250 million people age eligible to be workers. 95 million of those without work. 38% unemployment..." (Jim Dakin 11-20-19)

    So my question (put forth in good heart)...where does this 38% unemployment # come from??? Who has the ability to conduct, colate and disseminate such a statistic for a country of 320+MM? Could that number somehow be derived from THE GOVERNMENT??? Arrggghhh!

    Let's just categorically state there is no 38% unemployment. Those kind of levels cause revolutions and I don't see any revolution. No road blockages, no store looting, no guillotine action.

    Let's pick another assertion (again, goodheartedly!). The Market Ticker FedGov spending at 20% of GDP.

    20% of GDP is healthcare spending (8% by Medicare/Medicaid & 12% by consumer).

    You wonder how consumer spending is 70%-75%? Easy, most healthcare is done by individual consumer or their insurance company. Thus, healthcare spending is part of the 70%-75% share of GDP that consumers control.

    As for decline in brick & mortar retail stores, meh! That whole "strolling the mall" is so '80s. Prime age group for that is 18-35 y/o...guess what? They have face bent down looking at phone. They don't do "the mall", hell they don't even do as much sex as my cohort did back decades ago. Different kind of people. They are spending in different ways, that's all.
    Hello, I-phone!

    To continue:The Nat'l Retail Federation (not Govt statistic!) said in Feb '19 sales will grow between 3.8% and 4.4% per annum. Those aren't small numbers for a mature and diverse industry. I dont see any retail shrinkage in those numbers.
    Retail sales hit a record $6T in 2018 (US Census) vs $4.4 T in 2007 and the record low in 2009 of $4T. An almost 50% increase in 12 years, not too shabby considering '08 -'09
    Another thing that correlates is that per capita debt in US is at record levels. For good or bad, people are spending and using credit to do so, in record amounts.

    Is that foreboding? A bit, but people have been finacially irresponsible for a VERY long time.
    Most people could rein in stupid spending and decrease debt levels,but that would be a negative, right? (snarc). We should all be Minionettes:)

    Sorry Jim, retail aint dying from what I see. Just being done poorly (credit card debt)


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    1. When you give a gov stat, you bolster Happy News. When I use a gov stat, I'm reporting bad news, even if it is probably worse. Medical spending is mostly done by the insurance company, which pays pennies on the dollar. So most of the consumption on our end is insurance payments, and much lower on their end. In effect, another bank bailout. That is "consumption" like paying taxes is consuming gov services. But even conceding that point, consumption still dropped ten percent. That isn't enough of a drop ( ten instead of twenty ) for concern? Look at the retail store closures, not the optimistic numbers a industry group puts out there. And you didn't take inflation into account. I didn't even cover direct stock buys from the central bank to prop up the stock market. Or the stock buy-backs from corporations. And in the end, it is just one piece of the rancid collapse picture.

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    2. In all fairness of that 38% not participating in work, you've got to figure on quite a number actually employed in the black market economy, those living with parents, those on disability, etc. Are you counting in students? We have tons of those. What about those in jail or prison? Stalin ever, at his worst, had as large a population of his in jail/prison as we do, we're no. 1!

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    3. I didn't factor in students, as a lot wouldn't find work anyway. And I know we have more prisoners than any one else per capita ( but, I'll admit, I didn't think about them ). And I know a lot of folks are on "disability", as it were. No one is starving or rebelling, but the jobs are also NOT there. A "help wanted" sign only means you can't pay $1k rent on 20 hours a week minimum wage, or Juan is still waiting for his cousin to get the coyote money together.

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    4. My understanding Jim, is that they are not counting the people that still need employment, but have given up trying to find it, but no one seems to know those numbers. They also leave out the numbers of people that are partially employed, yet still under employed. Yeah, the average job, when found, doesn’t even come close to paying the average rent, anywhere. Compare this to the 1950’s when the average job covered rent/mortgage, and supported an entire family (Thank you feminist bitches). Yeah, you had to save your money to buy that quality, American made good (say a pocket knife, as opposed to the 50 Chinese knives that you have now) but so what. Housing/gas/food, all the important things, were all reasonable at the time.

      I reported recently on my former co-worker, the 50 something (About a year older than I) straight, white, social retard . He found work, but he really had to pound the pavement, and it literally took him 4 years to find 2 jobs. I applied at a few places; the types of places that in the 80’s, would have hired me on the spot, but to no avail (No drug test, credit check, and background check bs either, back then) Employers can be picky now. Self employment, if you can pull it off, is the only way to go anymore, if you’re a straight white dude.

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    5. The 95 million includes those giving up looking for work. When I was last hired, it was on account of the previous job, willing to work for peanuts. That was what got me hired, 2008 a couple of months prior to This Sucker Going Down ( as Shrub said ). Now? Everyone is expected to work for nothing. It is no longer a competitive advantage as I had it.

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    6. I didn't convey myself well.
      I tend to believe the govt stats to great degree because too many other parties are always parsing and combing the numbers. Someone with vested financial interests is peeking over shoulders. Information equals money.
      Sure, some one or two people will go off deep end and say we'll be out of oil in 5 years but THE CONSENSUS of really smart guys says we have oil for long long time. Not necessarily $57/bbl but affordable. Same with other important stats like employment or exports/imports.
      Govt can fudge for a while but misrepresenting by huge factors? No. They'll get caught.

      My question specifically about unemployment is you undoubtedly relied on some source. My contention is that source doesn't have the reach or resources to measure unemployment by themselves. The source docs come from govt. So, in effect you are relying on the same govt stats you bash. I'm not knocking, just noticing a discrepancy.

      As for your observation about retail store closings...meh! Retail is easy to get into and easy to exit. There are very low barriers to entry.
      Besides the "stats" dont reveal whether the closing is a Sears store with 120 employees or a donut store with 6 employees (FT & PT). Totally different economic impact. We will have lost 2 Sears stores in Beaumont area by year end, but surge in oil related economy has created other retail jobs for those (ex)Sears folks. I think their work skills are transfereable to new retail sites unlike the notoriously disrespectful treatment coal miners in Illinois were given when told to "learn to code". Seriously 40 y/o miners doing computer coding?

      The general employment situation for the country as a whole right now is very very good. Search for workers is driving employers to pay more.
      My fall back argument is migration...Salvadorans by the 10s of thousands dont come in caranvans unless jobs exist here already. Job availability created the draw for the caravans. How do I know?...because smugglers want to be paid and you cant pay if no jobs where you are going.

      Do bad job situations exist in some areas or even some entire industries, yes of course.
      I remember as a young pup working at a nat gas plant and 3-4 slighly older guys from the decimated western Pennsylania/ eastern Ohio steel towns had moved down to Texas for work. They missed "home" but settled in and got to work. Aside from good natured ribbing, they fit right in and brought a good attitude and work ethic.
      One stumble does not necessarily end in the Pit of Doom. People can adjust and succeed.

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    7. Salvadorians can also be moving up to work illegally, at half the cost. Of course there is demand for workers will to get paid less. Are you telling me that HALF of all US workers earning less than $33k a year a sign of a good economy? Rents start on average at $1k a month. The average car costs over $30k. Suddenly, $30k a year ain't crap. Unemployment numbers can easily be used to ones advantage. U-6 is a lot worse than the fabled "4.2% Unemployment! Vote Trump!" Look, we are both right. We both select the numbers that fit our paradigm. You are an Optimistic Ollie. If the minions wanted those numbers, they would watch the MSM. I give them the numbers pushed into the shadows, the numbers that point to doom. I BELIEVE those numbers. I'm not trying to sell anyone anything. Ya reads for free and you donate if you get anything out of it. The Ollies, on the other hand, are in league with the elite getting rich off the declining economy. Who do you want to trust? I'm not saying that as a dig on you. You can't help how you view reality. I'm saying the Pay Per Lie folks are suspect. I trust them as far as I can through them. The government lies by omission and substitution, and just like you view the economy, by focusing on one aspect, ignoring others. I know, I do also. I just don't have an evil motivation, whereas I believe THEY do.

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    8. Oops. Far as I can THROW them, not "through" them.

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  5. How many tens of thousands here in the rust belt like myself were enjoying six figure incomes and benefits from the coal power industry that Obama successfully destroyed ? I warned the union boys everywhere I traveled that he would destroy our jobs but they had to toe the union line . Only good came out of it is that most of them now have a Trump flag on their house trailer .

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    1. Supporting Union wages is a tough call. Damned if you do, or don't. If you are going to lose your job anyway-see Detroit, construction, butchers-why not try to at least get something before it all goes away.

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  6. “If you think about it, who in the name of all that is good and just actually wants to buy clothing online, where they cannot try it on?”



    “Hates all other people” minion here Jim (Present company excluded of course :D ) That’s exactly the way that I purchase all of my clothes. There’s a learning curve of course, but the secret for me is to buy a little on the large size. Often, you will end looking somewhat silly, with oversized or baggy clothes. But I don’t care, since my motto is to dress for non-success. If you appear to be successful, others will wish for you to share your success with them.

    I liken it similarly to owning a truck. If you own one, you’d better keep it garaged. Otherwise, you will be helping some bastard move some shit every weekend. One time, back when I was a god fearing dude, I got roped into helping the sister of the Vietnamese kid from church into moving. He wasn’t even the one that arranged it, but rather, the fat white friend of his. Long story short, I got stuck riding over there with the elderly mother, that didn’t speak a lick of English, while the fat bastard hogged the cute young asian chick, that we were helping to move, all to himself. The fucker!

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    1. The step daughter just got swindled by a fellow church dude, when she lost earnest money on a house. Guy never should have let her apply. Either an idiot, or worships Mammon.

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    2. "Better keep your truck in a garage" yeah that reminds of me a friend of mine from years ago, rented an apartment, and couldn't get a girlfriend to save his life. Then his parents left him a house* and it was like he had to beat the bitches off with a shitty stick. He got a GF all right, who became his wife, and one night over beers and pizza, she confided to me and the room in general that if G. hadn't had the house she's have stayed with her parents and likely killed herself. Yep you heard that right, she's rather be dead than with G. if G. didn't own a house.

      Niiiiiiiiiice.

      *The house was bought by G.'s WWII-era father and it was a 3-way co-ownership between G., his useless brother, and useful and fairly successful sister. It was like taking 3 dogs and tying the left rear legs of 'em together so one can't move w/o the others agreeing. Kept G. housed but it created decades of rancor and last heard of G. moved to Lake Elsinore which like moving to Sun City, pretty much means you're dead even if your body is still tottering around.

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    3. Ah, true love. It warms the cockles.

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  7. Yeah, same here...99% of clothing is purchased on line. Not just by me, but the wife and adult daughter too. Why? 'Cuz people are gross and dressing rooms are vile. Nobody wants Hepatitis with their new duds man!

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  8. I made a pair of pants and a jacket out of deer hide. Took a lot of time. When I put them on I look like some kind of retarded wanna be mountain man. Nice and warm and shed water good, for wearing at the property. With all the red necks around I'd get shot if I stepped foot in town, or end up plastered all over the internet. But when Shtf, I got clothing covered, making my own.

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    1. Impressed. All I did today was vacuum pack some ammo. Simply not as exciting.

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    2. I need to acquire some more ammo, what do you use to vacuum pack? I assume it is fairly inexpensive, which would be in my wheelhouse.

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    3. I picked the cheapest model with the best reviews ( over 1k with 4.5 ). My original sealer didn't work-the cold killed it. I'm quite happy with the new one, especially the $40 price:
      https://amzn.to/2OzPTRM

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  9. In today's screwed up world...sizes are not what they traditionally were. I have worn the same sizes for over forty years. My weight, feet , waist and chest sizes have not changed. Yet in almost all cases the newer stuff has slowly required larger sizes. For example my shoe size has been an eleven since I was fifteen years old. This has slowly creeped up to thirteens now !
    You might state that I've grown, however I've got pants ,shirts and shoes which are over twenty years old which fit fine. Yet newly purchased must be larger in size to fit the same. Go figure...
    I'm with you Jimbo, no way I'd buy clothing online !
    Maybe , it's because Americans used to make our stuff, and now daze little brown and yellow folks do.

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    1. Maybe they are as confused by the Imperial sizing as I am by the Metric. They see "36 inch" and they desperately try to calculate into millimeters.

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