Sunday, October 27, 2019

inflation-house wins 2


INFLATION-HOUSE WINS 2
China is probably a great place. If you discount the knee jerk reaction to “communism”, and do not buy the Color Revolution folks trying to smear and discount them at every turn ( because, they are winning as we lose, which we cannot admit to ), and realize that the vast majority of people everywhere have ZERO problem with authoritarianism as long as they are doing well economically ( why immigrants still come to this Orwellian fascist dictatorship with the bureaucracy held hostage to the legions of rabid Politically Correct short bus riders, and why White Boys are moving to the Orient-it isn't JUST the diseased Bangkok ho's ).
*
But China has a slight problem. They are growing at 5%, and that is with a tremendous amount of inflation ( the US used to get a dollar of growth for every $2 in credit/inflation. Now it is $6 in debt ). Great, you say! Better than our true minus one percent ( probably even greater, but I don't want to panic the herd ). But China was growing at 15% a year, some time ago. Back when they were Hoovering in the globes manufacturing ( the West traded coal for oil, militarily and industrially. That bit them in the ass. China got a huge boost at first from powering its industry from dirty domestic coal. As that is largely depleted, they must expand trade for energy-a big bite in profit and growth ).
*
Now, not only must China buy its energy from abroad, they are running up against the problem of global economic slowdown. The world, after Global Peak Conventional Oil, after EROI tanked, inflated mightily to continue the illusion of growth oil use had given them. Inflation was global, and that leveled the playing field for consumers, who ONLY saw a doubling of prices since the 2008 meltdown.
*
It should have been much worse, except that other countries devalued their currency quicker than we did ours. And yes, Fracking Fuel helped immensely. That literally bought us another decade before collapse. I love fracking oil, it is literally free oil for debt that will never be paid back. For once, free money from the central bank helped out the Little People. What fracking is NOT, is a long term solution. It is entirely dependent on a fully functioning banking industry.
*
It is also a quickly depleting resource, much quicker than China's soft coal. We either run out of the stuff first, or the collapsing bank sector stops supporting it. Either way, that miracle is almost done. As is China's. The rest of the world spent its way into recession, and is no longer able to buy as much from China, even as China overbuilt factories AND must now import its fuel ( how well did importing oil work out for us, long term? ). How does this add to inflation here in the US? Remember, China only sends about 20% of its factory output to the US-and that was prior to the Trade War.
*
China is no longer dependent on the US, and might not have been for some time. It is going to follow Russia in dumping its Treasuries, completely. It will just take China longer, as it must still buy oil from PetroDollar countries. Of which there are less of every year. Eventually it won't need the US dollar. As their economy also contracts, they will be less inclined to prop up our failing system. They must prioritize elsewhere. The only reason it hasn't gotten worse is that, hey, we are still talking five percent growth. Great for anybody else except China.
*
And China, like Iran, has little love for the US, and for very good reason ( and why, exactly, would a country forgive us screwing them recently? ). We are so busy demonizing the country that we forget we have been using them like a cheap $2 rental mule. As we fall all over ourselves preaching the Hillary Sermon of Evil Russia, we conveniently forget we supported the '91 Crash there. Anyone remember us bombing the Chinese embassy as we intervened in Eastern Europe?
*
Of COURSE China is going to sucker punch screw us every chance she gets, as long as we are helpless on the mat. We sure as Hell did it ( remember how we supported the other side while Mao came to power? ). We have the hubris to believe we are hurting China by withholding agricultural products ( you know, the ones we couldn't plant ), when food is our primary export ( no, it isn't oil, fracking humps. Other countries with insufficient refining capability send us crude, we turn it into useful products and send it back. Which conveniently is counted as exports ).
*
If we don't export anything, we need to, to some degree, create the Monopoly money to buy what we need. Which is a LOT, except food and gasoline. Which I grant you, go a long way towards independence. If it wasn't for the need to import fertilizer to grow those crops and computer chips to run the automated SkyNet farm machinery. So, we are looking at the PetroDollar death, the slowdown in China necessitating their withdrawing economic support of us, and the bank bail out program jacking the economy. What could go wrong?
*
All these body blows could crash our system. Higher oil prices-possibly MUCH higher depending on many factors- and another bank bailout are exactly what we do NOT need now. But the system will not be allowed to fall and correct. That is NOT how bankers stay in hookers and blow. The digital printing presses must be cranked up to Super Speed. Ten, on the blender scale. In the mind of the federal reserve, any amount of debt is permissible to continue the illusion of growth. Any amount of inflation is okay as long as the government can continue paying the people who keep the bankers in power and profitable.
*
When the alternative to hyperinflation is Mad Max, money printing wins every time. Now, there are those who preach we have been in a deflation. Their support comes from reduced factory goods prices. Of course, that was due to overproduction, and the Chinese subsidizing our economy as a strategic move. That premise was from oil coming down from $150 a barrel. That was food prices coming down from 2009 high prices. Or, most of the inflation staying in the stock market. Pretty darn flimsy pieces of evidence, if you ask me.
*
What saved the economy in the 80's? Alaskan oil. Why were the 90's so inexpensive? Siberian oil. The '00's? Defeating the enemies of the PetroDollar, but that was really only a short time effect. By '06, global Peak Oil was breaking the US economy, unnoticed in the housing frenzy. The Teens, fracking oil. Inflation was, mostly, defeated in all these decades with supply increases of oil. Without that oil, backing money creation, inflation would have stayed at 70's levels, if not worse. But we really are running out of oil this time.
*
I won't belabor that, as I understand few share my absolute fear and loathing of Peak Oil. Just beware that the 70's economic contraction was from not a lack of oil, but a lack of GROWTH in the oil supply. What we have coming soon to an economy near you, is a 70's Redux mated to the Convenience Store Prices Model, added to Spicy Times and the Derivatives Market failing. Failing HARD. It is probably already started. I'll take a break from this, then continue on the micro effect of inflation. How you are screwed, more than how you can do much about it. The good news is, hyperinflation NEVER lasts very long. It can't.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click HERE )
*
Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon links here ( or from http://bisonprepper.com/2.html or www.bisonbulk.blogspot.com ). Or PayPal www.paypal.me/jimd303 

*** Unless you are in extreme poverty, spend a buck a month here, by the above donation methods ( I get 4% of the Amazon sale, so you need to buy $25 worth for me to get my $1 ) or mail me some cash/check/money order or buy a book ( web site for free books, Amazon to pay just as a donation vehicle ).
*** My e-mail is: jimd303@reagan.com My address is: James M Dakin, 181 W Bullion Rd #12, Elko NV 89801-4184 ***E-Mail me if you want your name added to the weekly e-newsletter subscriber list.
*** Pay your author-no one works for free. I’m nice enough to publish for barely above Mere Book Money, so do your part.*** junk land under a grand *  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio* my web site is www.bisonprepper.com *** Wal-Mart wheat***Amazon Author Page
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there

42 comments:

  1. I read a previous article Bison wrote about bolt action guns and bayonets. What about putting a bayonet on a regular 22 hunting rifle?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe most rimfires are too flimsy, worse even than an AR. If you rely on a 22 rifle, I think a big handgun is in order. Just in case of close in feral animals or men.

      Delete
    2. Wasn't this article about communists and oil?

      Delete
    3. I think the CIA will have our backs, Jim.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XKFQVJlmZY

      Not mocking you, just trying to find something to laugh about. I think that when you write these essays that lead me to quietly despair, I should follow with questions like, "How many .308 cartridges can I swap someone for a meal?" Or something like what Anonymous did above.

      Delete
    4. Higgins was correct of course ( in the video scene ). Already proven, and not because of hunger but just greed. Well, you laugh or you cry. Best to laugh.

      Delete
    5. The only .22 bolt I can think of that's sturdy enough was/is a Brno .22 I had years ago. I dunno if they still sell them.

      Delete
    6. Thomas,
      Bison is OK about off-topic comments...

      Delete
    7. Especially since no one goes back to the old articles. Best to keep it up to date and let everyone see it. Just "re:" it so we know what is being referenced.

      Delete
    8. Anon,
      Yeah, good thing.
      My mind swirls with all of these questions about the politics, history, or conspiracies in the essay, and then some good soul like you asks a completely unrelated question, and I think, "Hey, the site is all about HOW TO survive. Jim just likes to add in the interesting stuff. So, now I am trying to train myself to NOT get sidetracked by the entertaining stuff and just ask practical questions. Like, where the F am I going to move to? If SHTF doesn't happen for the duration of my short life expectancy, then I'm gonna get awfully bored looking at sand and barren mountains in the Mojave Desert. Not much quality of life there.

      Delete
    9. Look at it from a retirement view. What would I like looking at as I grow old in my rocker on the porch? Swamp and jungle, lush and good fishing? East Texas has good low priced junk land, no zoning outside city limits. Plenty of cold assed places with cheap land. Mountains? How about Ozarks or Appalachians? Colorado? Plenty more besides desert. It is just the easiest and cheapest.

      Delete
    10. James, what are you going to be looking at? You don't seem to like the town much but you aren't living on your retreat either. I think that comes with the price of junk land.

      Delete
    11. I knew I was set for life 11 years ago. I've lived almost everywhere except YankeeLand and I feel the most at peace right here. No, not in town. High Desert Nevada. I'd be happy about anywhere here. Town isn't preferred, but being married is. The lot is close enough, and there if I need it.

      Delete
  2. James , There used to be a guy from one of those south American countries pounding the hyperinflation nail with gusto . I can't remember his name and haven't seen him on the interwebz at all for around 5 years . You wouldn't happen to know of him would you ? He was highly educated unlike my humble self and had quite a bit of big bank experience before he bailed and returned to S.A. If the stuff I buy regularly is an indicator I'd say we are in the 10 to 20 % inflation model right now . That's why I'm still building up my stores of food and precious metals [silver & lead ] .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "If the stuff I buy regularly is an indicator I'd say we are in the 10 to 20 % inflation model right now."

      That is indeed accurate. The government's CPI number is so artificially low it's a joke.

      For empirical data on real inflation, check out the Chapwood index here: http://www.chapwoodindex.com/

      From the site: "...(the index) reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation."

      Delete
    2. If I heard about that index previously, I've since forgotten it. Thank you! Checking it out now.

      Delete
  3. I think I know who you are talking about, the Argentina guy. FerFal? Something similar? If that is the one, he moved to Ireland ( !!??? WTF ).

    ReplyDelete
  4. FerFal is a resident of Spain now. He moved there a couple of years ago

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Certainly smarter than Ireland. Not sure if that was one move of many, or just InterWeb rumor.

      Delete
  5. Inflation in the form of deflation:

    Kerrygold butter with herbs and garlic is my favorite.
    Quarter-pound cubes were four-ounces, now they are 3.5 ounces.

    Ice cream was sixteen-ounce pints, now they are fourteen-ounce 'pints'.

    Propane:
    I got two weeks heating from a five-gallon tank, now I get ten days.

    Diesel:
    My old Dodge got twenty-eight miles-per-gallon on diesel.
    I get barely eighteen miles-per-gallon on 20% biodiesel blend.

    Hay:
    For the mules, we got sixty-pound three-wire bales, now we get thirty-pound two-wire bales.
    Delivery was included, now we pay mileage and wait-time while we unload.

    And, yet, somehow, Bison holds his newsletter rates to pre-collapse levels.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ha! LOL on the last sentence. Shrinkflation is not just shrinking, but "substitution". I shudder to even think what I'm eating. I used to not care, just trying to be as healthy as possible. Now I don't think you can escape the US Mud Pies.

      Delete
    2. Organic Valley is in the US and will give Kerrygold a run for their money, and still sell honest weights.

      Delete
  6. Yes inflation is a bitch. That's why living to close to paycheck to paycheck is suicide financially. Even if you maintain an income for longer than others you have to have breathing room. I have a good bit of room currently because i paid off my vehicle and my land note is reasonable. A little over $400 a month and that sounds huge but how many have a mortgage larger than that. And my land has springs, more trees than is could ever use up with 20 woodstove's and room to grow and hunt whatever game survives. My ex-wife child tax is almost 40% of my current budget for another 5 years. I figure when i pay the land and child tax off i can survive on $800 a month and that's counting home insurance and car insurance which can be dropped if needed. (Not legally if i can still drive).

    My state pension for as long as it lasts covers my current budget with a few hundred left but don't ask me where the hell it goes. I'm concentrating on paying off my land and have almost saved for the kids college. Required by divorce law in this state. Dont hate. I went back to work and its only part time 20 hours a week but it pays $17 an hour. Beats minimum wage. It gives me a great buffer to save and pay down debt, help the kids out and it should be more durable than a lot of jobs.

    I commented previously that I'e been catching up on the old posts and definitely want to put up more wheat. I have about 2 years of food and staples put up but want another several hundred pounds of wheat. Hard Red winter is best, right?

    Have solar panels but need to get a controller, inverter and some batteries for a small useful set up. Need some more ammo and want to stock up on some building type supplies, antibiotics and that's about it. A few more hand tools, wood cutting saws mainly.

    Yes it could all come crashing down tomorrow but if it doesn't we have to plan to make it day to day. Like child support, if it crashes how can they collect? Just an example. I'm hoping to pay off my land in 2 or 3 years if it holds together but no bank in the picture, a friend holds the note.

    Don't buy anything that isn't necessary. Like James says "live like the collapse has already happened". Cut BS expenses now, Buy wheat and ammo, pay down debt, get the junk land, and get out of the crowds.

    OK, way to much rambling, but we all need a cash surplus to push the personal collapse back as far as we can to buy time. We may disagree with Lord Bison on Chainsaws and auto transportation but he has great wisdom and Marvelous Hair.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hard red wheat is the best protein, lowest moisture. Hard White is a very close second. Since White is what the store usually has, I'm not too picky. $400 is what an RV park lot rent goes for here, and the casino's don't pay Union like they used to. The mines just merged, and lots of folks quitting because the hours are cut ( the hiring is replacing the old timers moving to other areas ). The cheapest land here is a crappy mobile home with long commute and barely anything under $1200 a month. Yeah, $400 a month, even with college tuition ( I don't envy you that yoke ) you are probably much better off.

      Delete
    2. Jobs seem to be reverting to the minimum wage, no matter what they are. Out where I am the min. is $15 an hour. All the jobs pay that and no more, whether it's sweeping floors or being very skilled it's all $15 an hour. And those computer programming jobs? That's as much a pipe dream as "Move to Nashville and make a million bucks in country music" - they all pay $15 an hour too.

      Delete
    3. Why do you think the commies screamed so much after they lost their leftist media jobs and were told to Go Program?

      Delete
  7. I lost you for a couple of years , glad to read you again .Really like your point of view.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Remember to tell all your friends no one is as infuriating, opinionated or with nicer hair.

      Delete
    2. Another subtle tactic of the elite and their electronic madness,alienation.

      2:48

      Delete
    3. At least a bonus, if nothing else.

      Delete
    4. I remember Wayne Wilson, I was gone for a bit too. Wayne you aren't from Southern Mississippi by chance??? I know one and can see him liking the Bison page..

      Delete
  8. Your are correct again jim with the highlighting of macro trends. I like to also use "street smarts" observations and on the ground recons to tell me the status of things in real life. It is still suck badly out there, by the way.

    As the Shadow Stats site also lays out with data points, it is already begun and a rude awakening awaits.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Our memories are so short, it's like we came up and socked the Russian kid and took his lunch money, then wonder why he hell he punches us back 15 minutes later. And we got the Chinese kid's mom hooked on drugs, sold his big brother for slave labor to build the railroads, and silently stood by while Japan did the rest to kill off the rest of his family. And then we wonder why China's taking our manufacturing, intellectual property, and smuggling tons of "fent" into the US.

    Probably the best writer, head and shoulders above, on Russia vs. the US is Dmitry Orlov. Yeah he plays a ton of hockey, but when he's not doing that he's running a blog called cluborlov got com and writing books. His "Shrinking The Technosphere" is one I might buy, and I'm more broke than the Bison.

    On China, I suggest a YouTuber named SerpentZA - he's a white guy from South Africa so he has no country to go back to, hence his willingness to spend year in China. He's out of there now, but not before acquiring a Chinese wife who's a doctor and their having a kid. He doesn't say much about the opium wars that gave America's blue bloods their fortunes 100+ years ago, but he talks plenty about Chinese reality and Chinese attitudes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I really like The Saker, but yeah, Orlov is about the best. Thanks for the Chinese Analyst dude-I'll check him out. Chinese dudes must have really small Wangs, for a White Devil to score a Chinese gal, with all the demographics making her a sellers market, who is a professional to boot.

      Delete
  10. So, fertilizer. We're good except for potassium, but Canada is the largest producer in the world and we have a lot more tanks and phosphorus (we need an extra 10% or so).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Until Trudeou turns it 100% communist and the ChiComs liberate it, returning it to a more capitalist gov. Then, what fertilizer to feed all the Diversity Immigrants?

      Delete
  11. @LargeMarge

    Re: propane

    Propane can vary in quality (btu value), but the likely reason is that they are filling the tank 15% short of what was previously the norm. They hope you don't notice the slight weight reduction. This is all part of the effort to mask inflation. Same as the reduction in ice cream containers, coffee cans, potato chip bags, and most all grocery items.

    The vast majority of citizens are sufficiently distracted and dumbed-down enough that they don't notice.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. First thing I noticed was my coffee amount shrinking! :)

      Delete
    2. Actually the propane regulation gestapo changed the rules on filling up bottles from going by volume to one based on weight and with an excessive safety margin for expansion.
      In the old days they filled tanks until it came out the bleeder port...which made for a full tank. Unsafe if left in the sun with no room to expand...c

      Delete
    3. I wonder who benefited from that one-perhaps a certain tank exchange company?

      Delete

COMMENTS HAVE BEEN CLOSED