Thursday, August 6, 2015

buttholes 2 of 3


BUTTHOLES TO ELBOWS 2

Since I was born, and while I’m no spring chicken I’m also not that darn old, the population in the US has close to doubled.  When we think back to our childhood and remember less traffic on the roads, less concern over crime, far less people living in our home town, less crowds at the mall or at the park or in school, housing more affordable, food fresher and cheaper and all the rest, we are not just giving in to nostalgia blurring the harsh glare of reality.  We are remembering a place not as overpopulated as it is now ( and the then great circumstances were far less appealing than a time thirty years prior to THAT, before all the Baby Boomers were spawned ).  Yet, as we all share similar memories, we are also all busy at suppressing the current reality.   We ignore the fact that population has doubled ( and that is the least worst population increases, almost nothing as compared to less affluent parts of the world a generation or three closer to the old ideals of huge families which both used to be an economic and geopolitical necessity ).  And while I’m not trying to cast any stones in a glass house, we must also admit that most of my readers are prime examples of this reality avoidance, most still living in huge metro areas.  If my readers, who are far and above better informed and logical than the average prepper who thinks we have twenty years to Peak Oil despite all the evidence shoved in their face, can ignore the dangers of overpopulation, than I fear nobody is going to actually conceptualize this issue.

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At our current level of population, we are so overpopulated that there is absolutely zero chance of a peaceful slow contraction resource wise.  Twenty years ago the population gain became such that petroleum inputs started to become inadequate for the numbers and globally we started drawing down grain reserves we had accumulated twenty years prior to that ( if the simple statistic “the last six out of eleven years have seen more grain consumption than production“ doesn‘t scare the very crap out of you, I would suggest retiring from the survivalist game ).  Today, there are for all intents and purposes no reserves left, yet at the same time we are now seeing extreme weather events that refuse to abate while at the same time populations keeps increasing ( all the happy dance crap we are hearing about less population is only a decrease in the increase numbers, not an actual contraction ).  And genetically modified foods are no increase in food production as much as an increase in monopoly and profits for the food giants. 

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Just look at Russia.  They saw a huge population drop after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Theirs was a controlled collapse, the kind we used to fool ourselves that we can see the same as if we can only grow our own tomatoes a true collapse of civilization will be averted.  As a result, they are far better positioned to ride out the coming collapse.  Both economically ( more resources to sell now, as the home population of less needs less energy ) and food-wise ( same acreage, less mouths ).  And yet, after one season of draught, they were forced to halt exports of food.  If a country with less people doesn’t have a surplus of food, what chances do the rest of us have?

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16 comments:

  1. Not only is their population already reduced, the government also has much tighter control over the populace, industry and resources. Additionally, I'd have to say their people overall are a much hardier stock able to deal with a low tech world.
    Russia's military will survive an EMP event better too....

    Of course we have a huge grain reserve in the US Jim. It's all in our basements stored in buckets lol

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  2. I read that the halt to grain exports was more about precaution and politics than actual need - but just like peak oil - it doesn't matter if we are running out of oil only in the fields the politicians are allowing us to drill or in total, we are still running out. So if Russia limits the grain available to the global market for political purpose the result is the same.

    The USA is producing way more basic foods (grains and beef) than it needs. And even in the face of global climate change and downgrading of petroleum inputs we will be able to do so. But if the oil or financing or seeds get cut off completely or the climate spins even further out of control that will stop. In the meantime every other hit other nations take to producing food allows our nations value as a food producer to climb.
    I think TPTB that are in charge of the USA are intending to use this fact to keep the USA at the top of the heap until neither the military might nor food related bribes of the USA can be used- THEN they will accelerate the collapse.

    In the mean time they will try to slow the internal usage of food by US citizens how ever they can. Economic depression, race war, euthanasia, anything that will slow our food consumption overall with any significance.
    The fact that over 46 million US residents (of a total pop of at most 460 million) is on food stamps means that they can and will find a way to get those people to eat poisons that will stop them from rioting or eating too much of TPTB profits.

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    1. I'd be wary on the whole "USA can feed the world". Half or more of our corn goes to ethanol, and beef is taking a hit both from that and drought. Our fields are using crap soil and petroleum inputs increase yearly, plus the whole irrigation and suburbia pave-over issue. My point is not to wave another End Is Nigh sign but to spread skepticism about optimism on that front.

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    2. Wow, you mean for as many as 5 out of the past 11 years we actually produced more grain than we consumed? I guess things aren't as bad as I thought.

      But as far as feeding the world goes, the bigger problem looming for the US is the drawdown of the Ogalala aquifer. I have heard it will take at least 6000 years to replace the water we have used in the past century -- and wells are already running slowly if at all. As the Midwest loses irrigation, crop yields will plummet.

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    3. We might have actually consumed all the production in the better years, but weren't forced to draw from the reserves.

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    4. The Oqalala aquifer is a complicated thing. There are a few (small) parts that have actually been filling further than normal over the past decade. The irrigation that happens from those parts isn't going to go away for lack of water - of course those areas also usually need to irrigate less too. Much more of the aquifer is running low faster in some places than in others with even more pumped out. Those tend to be the places where it was filled in the ice ages and never filled since. Places where it is probably stupid to be growing the crops we are growing as they must always, every year, get most of their water from irrigation. Changing crops to ones better suited to the arid conditions is a better plan that will at some point be embraced from necessity.
      I agree that _counting_ on the US to KEEP producing the way we have been. TPTB are going to keep it looking like it is still just fine and dandy not much more food inflation than we have been seeing - UNTIL they are ready to pull the rug out from under us, and I expect the pulling the rug out will be obvious first and foremost with food stamps / SNAP.

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    5. I'd think that food stamps will still be there, but shortages and hyperinflation will slowly negate them. Slow enough to avoid rioting.

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  3. "genetically modified foods are no increase in food production as much as an increase in monopoly and profits for the food giants"

    Not to offend your High Hairedness but, why wouldn't larger crop yields per acre result in both food increase AND profits?

    -Novice

    P.S. You shamed me into buying the new articles on Amazon. Good stuff.

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    1. The point on the increase in profit/monopoly is meant to highlight the majority of gains. Any production increase itself is accidental, even though GMO's were/are sold as just that.

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    2. GMOs raised production for a few years, but those gains have not been sustained. They have increased farmer dependence on farm chemicals sold by the same companies making the seed

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  4. Would you believe I live in an area with less population than when I was a kid? My home town has 1/2 the population it once had. That's what happens when the major industries go away. I know it's a totally different experience than what most people have. However, it means I've lived in a slow collapse my whole life, even if it's been local. `Collapse is normal to me.

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    1. I know they say be careful what you wish for, but I'd sure like the population here to decrease. 25% increase in three or four years.

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    2. Ya gotta wonder how many are closet -prepper choosing Elko as being out of the way ?

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    3. My luck, yuppie scum survivalists. Also, I got your postal box today. Dude, that is one sweet sheath. You did a hell of a job on it and I love it. The book looks good, I'm sure I'll enjoy, but the sheath is a damn work of art and it makes a fine gift. Many, profound thanks!

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    4. Well, I remember you saying that a decent sheath was hard to come by for a smaller knife.
      The Kershaw is similar to one I bought twenty years ago, back when they were all made in Oregon. Mine has an all black handle and the serrated part is only on the backside with a full blade on the user side. Yet alas you have to take what they sell today, thus your green and black dayglo handle....should still be a fairly decent knife tho.
      BTW is that the type clip you wanted on one ?

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    5. A better knife than I usually get, so no complaints there, even with painfully bright handle. Clip sheaths are great for a harness and boot position, not so great the belt. Everytime I get in and out of the vehicle, I have to watch it. My ideal would be a one piece leather sheath with loop for the belt to slip through, reinforced by rivets. But your sheath is nice, and shall be more dress than work carried, so no worries. The personalized stamps are what got me excited and weepy grateful, not the knife or sheath type. Cheers!

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