peev2c13

PEEv2c13

Peak Oil

Twelve chapters ago, I started rewriting this book ( as blog articles ). On the first article, you were told I was going to write on this subject. You WERE warned. Now, here it is. If you hear nothing else, I want to make this point. “They have been saying we would run out of oil for 100 years” is no excuse for dismissing Peak Oil. Because Peak ONLY means that is the point production starts to fall. It does NOT mean we have run out of oil. You mix apples and oranges to deny reality, that infinite growth isn't possible on a finite planet.

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I actually understand your reluctance to give up the good life. I certainly don't wish to live in deprivation and despair, and that is on a GOOD day, after the oil. Oil is so ingrained in our lives we cannot imagine another reality. It allowed a LOT of scientific research that was a complete waste of time, just so that a few nuggets of helpful knowledge was gained. All that waste was just surplus energy. It allowed hundreds of millions of people to do nothing but cruise around for no other purpose than to be cruising around.

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Wasting oil was FUN, dammit! The problem of course is that all the fun we had growing up is no longer possible. Because we don't have as much oil to waste, per capita and BTU's in toto. The per capita part screwed the pooch when the powers that be needed more consumers to pick up from depressed earnings and profit, and the BTU part came from substituting real oil with lesser quality fuels once conventional oil decreased in volumes discovered and produced. We certainly have NOT run out of oil!

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We ran out of enough oil per person, to continue our standard of living, and then we started using fake fuel that delivered far less energy and which also was far more resource intense to produce ( I do NOT say “more expensive to produce” because fracking oil almost always lost money. The bankers giving away the soon to be defaulted loans didn't care because without some kind, any kind, of energy, their racket would have ended. And hell, lost loans are just entries in the ledger, not real money. Just inflation, which doesn't hurt the rich ).

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These last fifty ( plus ) years of economic decline ( we are still waiting for the economic collapse ) were all caused by the decline in oil. Energy in general, as all the high grade coal was used, as there were no more rivers to dam, after we passed Peak Plutonium and after the US saw the peak of its oil production in the lower 48 states. If you take away Alaskan oil and the Gulf Of Mexico oil ( both in severe decline. We weren't deep sea drilling because it was easy or profitable, but because that is what is mostly left ), we would be far below half our Peak 1971 production.

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No, I do NOT call fracking oil “energy independence” and I would NEVER call it “surpassing 1971 production”. Let me try to make this clear. Stick a pipe in the ground and out comes conventional oil. All it needs is 1880's levels of technology to distill ( yes, it is more complex and expensive now, because of centralization and economics of scale. But fundamentally the level of technology isn't much advanced. I know you want to argue. Look up “fundamentally” ). Nothing besides a well needs to be shipped in to start the drilling.

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With fracking oil, you need to ship in, besides the drilling rig, butt tons of water and chemicals. That is an added energy cost, which lowers your NET energy. The wells must be deeper. And a lot of times, you get a VERY poor grade of oil. Sometimes so poor you need to add in a thicker petroleum product to get anything other than lower energy gasoline ( you remember that you need diesel for trucks and trains, yes? ). But the biggest sin of fracking oil is that instead of a minimum of forty years of well production, you usually only get four years MAXIMUM. Fracking spots are in essence the sludge left over from conventional oil drilling or which were NEVER economically viable in the first place.

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Now, yes, indeed, we can run an economy on fracking oil. We have been doing it, the last five years fracking alone producing one third of all of our liquid fuel needs. But, you have noticed the economy during that same time, haven't you? If it wasn't for printed money never to be paid back, the majority of companies publicly traded would have already closed their doors. If it wasn't for the new housing bubble artificially injecting money into the banks vaults, Douche Bank ( and its illegitimate inbreed cousins across the globe such as HSBC ) would have probably actually already touched off the derivatives implosion.

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It was the lack of affordable oil at a sufficient net energy that collapsed the world manufacturing economy ( okay, “declined too far to remain viable” rather than “collapsed” ). If too much energy is going to produce more energy, what is left for the real economy? It is bad enough the financial sector is a parasite that drains too much economic activity, now we are also working with an energy sector that is producing too little to maintain the infrastructure of the planet. I know I've lost some of you, so let me elaborate. It takes oil to drill for oil.

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You see a statement perhaps to the effect of “we were pumping 70 million barrels of oil a day in 1970, and now we are pumping out 90 million a day. Hooza!” But, one, there are a crap ton more people wanting calories today that fifty years ago ( which you will of course dismiss as “starving Black babies in Africa-screw them”, ignoring the THREE friggin BILLION people in India and China working towards a middle class lifestyle ) and two, volume of production means dingus all compared to NET energy.

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If you use more oil to get oil out of the ground and to its end user, the volume doesn't matter. A fracking well can lose up to 80% of its volume in ONE year. That means you need more wells. Every time you set up a rig and run pipe down into the ground, it takes away from the net energy delivered. You need at least ten times the drilling for fracking as conventional, and then after all that, you get a lesser grade of oil. With these kinds of inefficiencies, NET energy is really reduced. And I beg you to remember, we are trying to run a 1930 infrastructure with 2010 energy.

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Every year, less NET energy means that old timey infrastructure sees less energy devoted to its maintenance. Every ill in our economy is attributed to less energy inputs. Less energy to dredge out the lakes behind dams, less energy for the consumer, less energy for a business that caters to a consumer, or employs a consumer. Retailers failing is NOT economic, and it was NEVER about Amazon, it is energy contraction. 35% unemployment is energy contraction. Chinese overproduction from lack of employed consumers is all about energy contraction.

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None of this is because we ran OUT of oil, it is because we are getting a constant decline in net energy. THAT is Peak Oil. You have been living it for fifty years. The only reason it matters is because what is in constant decline eventually means it runs out. You've been living Peak most of your life. Isn't it time to think perhaps you should accept the proof before your eyes?

( .Y. )

( today's related Amazon link click HERE )

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note: January earnings report.  $212 donations.  $162 Amazon commission.  $5 Kindle books.  $379 total.  Most excellent.  A hearty thanks to any and all who filled the begging bowl.
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note: Gary North on the historical context of Brexit HERE or as he puts it, and to tie in somewhat with today's article, if only in a snarky manner, Peak Globalism
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