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Thursday, February 6, 2020

beer virus 4


BEER VIRUS 4
Well, that was invigorating! I finished part three of this series yesterday morning, and that evening Silver Report Uncut had a video on factory closures in China due to Beer Virus. And not “Uncle Cho's Plastic Toy Factory”, but rather Big Names. Like, Johnson & Johnson and Samsung. I think perhaps even Apple, but don't quote me on that one. Anyone remember what the flash drive shortage from the Japanese earthquake was like? That was one factory. That was what JIT Inventory failures look like. Get ready for another lesson ( if it isn't already apparent in the week before you read this ).
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Unless you have been living under a rock recently ( cough, certain commentators on this blog, cough ) you know that the US economy blows monkey dingus. Without the Federal Reserve fire hosing tens to hundreds of billions into the repo market daily, and then continuing to prop up the stock market ( “buy the dip” means the Fed, not Joe Investor ), the economic collapse would have already started. Now, even with the Fed covering anything that moves with liquidity, what happens to companies that cease to have any product to move?
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And not just one company, but many, all at the same time. Do you think Helicopter Money can save us this time? I know, right? I was waiting out on my front lawn too, for the money drop. It never got to the residential section. It stopped and dropped it all on the corporate headquarters. Bastards. Now, I might imagine that you and I, we can do without a fresh infusion of appliances or tablets or coconut scented shampoo. But what about the shipping company? The bunker fuel company? The interstate trucking company?
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Enough factories shut down long enough, and pretty soon all of the companies that borrowed money aren't paying back their loans, which means the small banks start to fail. The Fed starts bailing them out. But even if digital currency is free and instant, you cannot bail out thousands and thousands of companies, with more every day. Remember what happened the last time the volume of sales dropped at Wal-Mart ( the largest grocery store )? Their business model went to crap, and I think it was a close call how long they could have stayed in business if nothing had changed.
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What happens when Wally sees huge swaths of its shelves empty? Even with the same, or more, number of customers, their sales volumes plummet. In some places, there really isn't much competition in grocery stores. Less stores, less amounts of food, now there are food shortages because of limited shelves. If ten thousand people need four grocery stores, and one store is fifty percent of the demand, what if the big stores closes? The remaining small mom and pops cannot physically carry that extra volume. And that is not even factoring in the lack of credit in a failing bank system, so that the stores can reorder.
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Here is the issue as I see it. I'm not trying to imply this will be an instant collapse, as with Y2K or a EMP. I am worried that this will be unprecedented in our over fifty years of decline. Prior to this, we went from decentralization to centralization. This led to economics of scale and elimination of redundancy ( that WAS the good news, but it also becomes the bad news ). We aren't used to moving in the other direction, towards decentralization. I fear that is only possible after a collapse. Both because infrastructure and political and economic control is centralized.
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We all knew long ago that centralization is dangerous once growth ceases. And I cannot see how this is a surprise to anyone, after such a big deal was made out of that little publication titled “The Limits Of Growth”. Anyway, we all know the vulnerabilities. The cascading effect of the JIT system unraveling. Some Bright Boy points out the abundance of jobs in his area, never stopping to break down exactly how much of that is dependent of government and central bank spending. Most local governments only survive as they keep getting into more debt. At its simplest, think of the school board taking out a bond for construction.
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What happens when the federal government sees its revenues decline, when it is already borrowing 25% a year to keep running? What happens when local taxes fall as jobs are lost and mortgages ( and hence property taxes ) are not paid? The last time, there wasn't enough asphalt to repair roads, money to plow them or gas for the deputies to patrol them. The last decades of decline saw an UNEVEN process. You could move out of the area to where jobs were. You could “learn to code”. You could work for retail, because a 75% cut in pay from a Union job sucked, but at least you had a job, any job.
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What happens when this time, the severe decline is national? There will be plenty of oil in the ground, but companies cannot get financing, they cannot pay the workers enough to live on ( as the Fed hyperinflates the liquidity crises away ), the Detroit car factories already closed and the Chinese ones are temporarily closed ( the Mexican factories aren't getting parts from China ) and there are no replacement vehicles the company needs, the company payroll keeps getting robbed as the local banks are closed and there is no more direct deposit?
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Isn't it wonderful, from a tactical point of view, how much global chaos was produced by one country having a disease outbreak? And China doesn't even have to convince the world, merely its own citizens. They are the ones staying off the streets, even within the city itself that is quarantined only to outsiders. I'm not saying this isn't actually serious. The Chinese are indeed a nation of shopkeepers, the universal timeless insult, and they wouldn't stop grubbing for money if it wasn't necessary. There might not be bodies littering the street, but from what little I've seen and heard, information is being allowed to flow insofar as the corpses and chaos in the hospitals.
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The announcement that the officials would try to build another hospital from scratch in two weeks, to augment the existing ones at the Patient Zero site? Can you imagine how much you'd freak out if YOU heard that? I think the disease is just bad enough mortality wise that people are going to panic anyway, but the cherry on top of this feces Sundae is the fact that you are contagious up to two weeks, NOT showing any symptoms. This is far worse than SARS, in that regard. If every swinging dingus around you could infect you, and they appeared perfectly healthy, what is going to obviously happen?
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Everyone stays home. Even if those factories didn't want to close, their workers weren't coming in. The government soft selling the numbers just adds fuel to the paranoia that this is worse than being admitted. If I was an idiot drooling Chinaman, my brain softened from eating too much rice, and the government said “two and half percent fatality rate”, and yet I saw 60 million quarantined, or whatever the number is this week, I would conclude, “ten times worse”, and I would decide on my own to avoid crowds.
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And you know how people are. Uncle Ho in a quarantined city, talking to rural Cousin Chin, automatically embellishes the gossip, to elevate his own bravery and suffering. Chin has boots on the ground reporting, and before you know it, the whole country is in Ebola levels of panic ( do you wonder about the Pig Ebola that was just unleashed before this? A PERFECT set up to the Beer Virus, to really fan the flames of panic. The government doesn't need much of a conspiracy level set up past unleashing the two biological agents. The rest pretty much takes care of itself.
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Looking at all the past Barnyard Flu's out of China, it almost seems as if they were trial runs. Teachable moments for the ChiComs. And if I'm completely wrong and over wrought about all this? So what? This is a great time to ask yourself, what if it actually did happen? Are you ready? Can you Bug In? Are you still trying to keep the collapse on your schedule? Ponderables.
( .Y. )
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22 comments:

  1. Strategically plan your own actions and posture levels according to your needs or threshold levels, not waiting for fema instructions on your cnn channel.

    If your a Minion with decent company leave policy, tap out from work for whatever allowable period of time, ie 30 60 90 days etc. (You have emergency cash to cover already, right?) Justify as helping family as a caregiver or other sympathetic excuse. (String along that job without quitting to fall back on if things cool down) If in a two partner working jobs scenario, especially with offspring, one parent leaves or quits totally and reverts to household duties only for protection from exposures. The kids are pulled from school, sent to grandma in the country or homeschool sequestered like monastery training. Once there are missing hired help and students, along with much less business customers, herd panic stinks up the air and things begin cascade collapsing.

    Make last forays outside the compound to top off supplies, use it as training drills, recon, and exercises for the future crunch periods. Get ahead of the curve. Stay frostier than those other rubes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think "last forays" is going to be an article idea. Thanks.

      Delete
    2. Yes, forays, it must be expected as a necessity if possible regularly up and until complete collapse. We broke ass, non yuppie, "too uncool for the redoubt" Minions don't have enough warehoused pallets of gear to seal off defcon 5 just yet.

      There will still be regular scoot and shop runs during this hovering phase of things. As the area conditions change requiring intensive last ditch shopping excursions or your "investment buy now" lizard brain signal does a money spending chemical dump into your veins. Thus causing you to flat cart shop the sacks and bales sizes. Replenshiment so as to not burn through your backstocks. Forays as a reconnaissance mission outside your wire to keep regular tabs on your local conditions in your '2 kilometer A.O.'

      be frosty during those forays.

      Delete
    3. "Up and until collapse" Yes. But most folks see a need to go AFTER that, as if to beat the last shopper for the last item. That is what I have an issue with, shopping past the point of sanity. Well, it gave me a longer article to rant and spew.

      Delete
  2. Love how you mangle and rearrange aphorisms and quotes. You leave me scratching my head. I have to get some of that coconut scented shampoo you use. It must do something else besides smell nice😊

    "The Chinese are indeed a nation of shopkeepers..". Here I thought that was what Napoleon said of the English.
    Or... Uncle Ho in a quarantined city, talking to rural Cousin Chin". Another head scratcher. Why would a Vietnamese 'Ho' have a Chinese cousin 'Chin'?

    Keep'em coming Jim....and yes, economy booming 'here', STILL! ("Some Bright Boy points out the abundance of jobs in his area").
    Another quarter section of former rice field being turned into big span mfgr buildings and parking lots to boot this month!

    Oh well, got to run to Indian 👳 supermarket and make my purchase of 25 lb sacks of rice from over two dozen varieties on pallets stacked to ceiling. Mr. Patel always helpfully informs me of "best Jasmine" for my preferred main entree.

    No sir, no Uncle Ben's converted rice for my larder. If CoronaChan turns even bigger I'm kicking back with #1 goat curry over jasmine rice and bhindi (okra) masala.
    Note to self: buy couple extra package of lentils [green & red] and some turmeric powder.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're lucky I didn't throw in some Nip names. All Ornamental, all same, same. Hitler also used the line of British shopkeepers. I got it from him before I knew the origins. Why can't you use it on non-Brits? More than one Turd World Nation is full of Goat Herders, right?

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  3. Hmmm. Not quite sure what YOU do with goats (and won't pass judgement either!) but I just eat the young'uns.

    Never thought of Chinese as shop keepers in their native land. Only when they migrate and become "overseas Chinese" are they shopkeepers. Otherwise it's stoop labor rice farmers ladeling nightsoil onto paddies.
    When overseas Chinese are perceived as "uppity" the natives mow them down (periodic pogroms in Malaysia and Indonesia for example).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Granted, pre-industrialization the majority of the population are farmers. But if the whole world is full of farmers, the minority economic activity would label the region. ie, Swiss were mercenaries, Chinese were traders, Nepalese were colonial soldiers, Arabs ran caravans, Jews were bankers, Irish were drunks :) Perhaps "traders" is more appropriate for native Chinese? Doesn't really carry the insult, though, does it?

      Delete
  4. Ohhh! That's how we can create our Millennium Cult with a Difference(C). We can promise a collapse on YOUR schedule. Because our spiritual leader, Terry Bradshaw, would never collapse before YOU were ready.

    ReplyDelete
  5. From the 'frosting on a turd' department:

    I telephoned my sister and her family yesterday.
    Again, I offered space on our little organic farm west of Eugene Oregon.
    In case they need to refugee, they have a spot here.

    Nope, they are sheltering in place in the mountains east of Sacramento, California.
    Prepping for the next shut-down of the bankrupt utility company Pacific Gas And Electric, she acquired an 8k genset and a 5,000-gallon propane tank to run it.
    They also installed an 8,000-gallon cistern.

    In California.
    Lipstick on a howling crack-head crapping in the rose-bushes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now, why does it seem to me that the management of PG&E has all their golden parachute/retirement money in stock in generator companies?

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    2. Can’t comment on actual stock holdings Jim, but you pretty much nailed it. PG&E is indeed profiting, by leasing the types of generators mentioned by Marge, to customers, at a rate of around $60 a month. My closet queer cousin plans on getting one to keep his “beard”, that stroked out a few years back, in comfort (Yeah, it’s a really strange backstory, and I don’t even know where I’d begin, so I’ll leave it at that :D )

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    3. No way you make a profit at $60 a month. Just wear and tear, not to mention cost. I'd imagine that is subsidized for PR or part of the state settlement.

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  6. Get the "Pit on Doom" ready. I am on an island in the Philippines and two suspected case are 50 miles away at the town with an airport. Not safe anywhere. I do have a farm to feed my family here but no guns for foreigners.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good luck! If you listen to the tinfoil hatters, this might be designed for Asians. Not sure about all that, but it might be much more serious in your neck of the woods. Still, bugging out on a farm isn't the worst plan.

      Delete
  7. Off topic:
    I was wondering if Bison or anyone else, has comments about the psychological effects of long-term quarantine like the Chinese are doing.

    It is relevant to hermitage in hard times.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mainly, you need to talk to somebody. If the grid is still up, electronics could substitute. Or, a pet.

      Delete

    2. lets see .. no work for a few months YAY !
      lets see .. way more family time YAY!
      Lets see .. dont have to deal with dindu nuffins WAY YAY!!
      Lets see .. dont have to deal with anyone but family YAY!
      Im thinking that my stress level will become very low and my resulting psychological well being immensely improved !
      Not dealing with others bullshit is a triple yay !

      Delete
    3. BUT! What happens when you have to go back to dealing with the idiots? All that serenity down the crapper. It would be like dating a gal with DD bra size, who already has breast cancer. That was why I almost never took vacation-coming back would be twice as worse than just staying. If hermitage is bliss, consider making that a full time condition.

      Delete

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