beer virus 4

BEER VIRUS 4

Well, that was invigorating! I finished part three of this series yesterday morning, and that evening Silver Report Uncut had a video on factory closures in China due to Beer Virus. And not “Uncle Cho's Plastic Toy Factory”, but rather Big Names. Like, Johnson & Johnson and Samsung. I think perhaps even Apple, but don't quote me on that one. Anyone remember what the flash drive shortage from the Japanese earthquake was like? That was one factory. That was what JIT Inventory failures look like. Get ready for another lesson ( if it isn't already apparent in the week before you read this ).

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Unless you have been living under a rock recently ( cough, certain commentators on this blog, cough ) you know that the US economy blows monkey dingus. Without the Federal Reserve fire hosing tens to hundreds of billions into the repo market daily, and then continuing to prop up the stock market ( “buy the dip” means the Fed, not Joe Investor ), the economic collapse would have already started. Now, even with the Fed covering anything that moves with liquidity, what happens to companies that cease to have any product to move?

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And not just one company, but many, all at the same time. Do you think Helicopter Money can save us this time? I know, right? I was waiting out on my front lawn too, for the money drop. It never got to the residential section. It stopped and dropped it all on the corporate headquarters. Bastards. Now, I might imagine that you and I, we can do without a fresh infusion of appliances or tablets or coconut scented shampoo. But what about the shipping company? The bunker fuel company? The interstate trucking company?

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Enough factories shut down long enough, and pretty soon all of the companies that borrowed money aren't paying back their loans, which means the small banks start to fail. The Fed starts bailing them out. But even if digital currency is free and instant, you cannot bail out thousands and thousands of companies, with more every day. Remember what happened the last time the volume of sales dropped at Wal-Mart ( the largest grocery store )? Their business model went to crap, and I think it was a close call how long they could have stayed in business if nothing had changed.

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What happens when Wally sees huge swaths of its shelves empty? Even with the same, or more, number of customers, their sales volumes plummet. In some places, there really isn't much competition in grocery stores. Less stores, less amounts of food, now there are food shortages because of limited shelves. If ten thousand people need four grocery stores, and one store is fifty percent of the demand, what if the big stores closes? The remaining small mom and pops cannot physically carry that extra volume. And that is not even factoring in the lack of credit in a failing bank system, so that the stores can reorder.

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Here is the issue as I see it. I'm not trying to imply this will be an instant collapse, as with Y2K or a EMP. I am worried that this will be unprecedented in our over fifty years of decline. Prior to this, we went from decentralization to centralization. This led to economics of scale and elimination of redundancy ( that WAS the good news, but it also becomes the bad news ). We aren't used to moving in the other direction, towards decentralization. I fear that is only possible after a collapse. Both because infrastructure and political and economic control is centralized.

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We all knew long ago that centralization is dangerous once growth ceases. And I cannot see how this is a surprise to anyone, after such a big deal was made out of that little publication titled “The Limits Of Growth”. Anyway, we all know the vulnerabilities. The cascading effect of the JIT system unraveling. Some Bright Boy points out the abundance of jobs in his area, never stopping to break down exactly how much of that is dependent of government and central bank spending. Most local governments only survive as they keep getting into more debt. At its simplest, think of the school board taking out a bond for construction.

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What happens when the federal government sees its revenues decline, when it is already borrowing 25% a year to keep running? What happens when local taxes fall as jobs are lost and mortgages ( and hence property taxes ) are not paid? The last time, there wasn't enough asphalt to repair roads, money to plow them or gas for the deputies to patrol them. The last decades of decline saw an UNEVEN process. You could move out of the area to where jobs were. You could “learn to code”. You could work for retail, because a 75% cut in pay from a Union job sucked, but at least you had a job, any job.

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What happens when this time, the severe decline is national? There will be plenty of oil in the ground, but companies cannot get financing, they cannot pay the workers enough to live on ( as the Fed hyperinflates the liquidity crises away ), the Detroit car factories already closed and the Chinese ones are temporarily closed ( the Mexican factories aren't getting parts from China ) and there are no replacement vehicles the company needs, the company payroll keeps getting robbed as the local banks are closed and there is no more direct deposit?

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Isn't it wonderful, from a tactical point of view, how much global chaos was produced by one country having a disease outbreak? And China doesn't even have to convince the world, merely its own citizens. They are the ones staying off the streets, even within the city itself that is quarantined only to outsiders. I'm not saying this isn't actually serious. The Chinese are indeed a nation of shopkeepers, the universal timeless insult, and they wouldn't stop grubbing for money if it wasn't necessary. There might not be bodies littering the street, but from what little I've seen and heard, information is being allowed to flow insofar as the corpses and chaos in the hospitals.

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The announcement that the officials would try to build another hospital from scratch in two weeks, to augment the existing ones at the Patient Zero site? Can you imagine how much you'd freak out if YOU heard that? I think the disease is just bad enough mortality wise that people are going to panic anyway, but the cherry on top of this feces Sundae is the fact that you are contagious up to two weeks, NOT showing any symptoms. This is far worse than SARS, in that regard. If every swinging dingus around you could infect you, and they appeared perfectly healthy, what is going to obviously happen?

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Everyone stays home. Even if those factories didn't want to close, their workers weren't coming in. The government soft selling the numbers just adds fuel to the paranoia that this is worse than being admitted. If I was an idiot drooling Chinaman, my brain softened from eating too much rice, and the government said “two and half percent fatality rate”, and yet I saw 60 million quarantined, or whatever the number is this week, I would conclude, “ten times worse”, and I would decide on my own to avoid crowds.

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And you know how people are. Uncle Ho in a quarantined city, talking to rural Cousin Chin, automatically embellishes the gossip, to elevate his own bravery and suffering. Chin has boots on the ground reporting, and before you know it, the whole country is in Ebola levels of panic ( do you wonder about the Pig Ebola that was just unleashed before this? A PERFECT set up to the Beer Virus, to really fan the flames of panic. The government doesn't need much of a conspiracy level set up past unleashing the two biological agents. The rest pretty much takes care of itself.

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Looking at all the past Barnyard Flu's out of China, it almost seems as if they were trial runs. Teachable moments for the ChiComs. And if I'm completely wrong and over wrought about all this? So what? This is a great time to ask yourself, what if it actually did happen? Are you ready? Can you Bug In? Are you still trying to keep the collapse on your schedule? Ponderables.

( .Y. )

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