are we already in collapse2?

ARE WE ALREADY IN COLLAPSE 2?

As discussed yesterday, no, no we are not. The collapse only starts when the fighting for food begins. As long as everyone is eating sufficiently, we are still TECHNICALLY in mere “decline”. Historians might look back and judge the date of collapse differently, but that is lack of evidence and Best Guesses. Here, boots on the ground, collapse starts when order isn't maintained. You will see little comfort as your corpse is cooling after an attack by OtherColor militia disguised as Disadvantaged Youth Forced Into Crime Due To Socioeconomic Forces, but if your neighbors are eating and there are police to take a report of the crime, it isn't collapse yet.

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Technically. For all intents and purposes we are in an ongoing collapse as fewer systems remain viable year after year, but as long as you are stuffing your piehole with Corn Derivatives watching SportsBall, we are just in decline. Malnourished isn't the same as Famine. BUT! I fear that the center cannot hold all that much longer. No one can time the collapse, not even myself, despite remaining steadfastly Baby Jesus' Most Favorite and having such perfect hair even women envy me ( and tremble after noticing my boot size ).

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But we can notice the probabilities. In 2008 we had a convergence of two disasters, food shortages globally and a Liquidity crisis as the derivatives market was threatening our financial system yet again, worse. This might have lead a few of you, primarily Fracking Fanboys or Trump Trumpeteers, to believe we have the tools to solve the current disaster. I stipulate that we do not ( while also humbly admitting this is no guarantee of collapse ). I can only note that four potential disasters isn't a doubling of probably collapse. It is exponentially worse.

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We have seen all these disasters before. The Beer Virus is just SARS. It could be worse, but right now it is still just a POTENTIAL pandemic. The liquidity crisis hits once or twice a decade, fueled by greedy bankers and profitable derivatives casino bets. Each time was magnitudes worse than the one before, but from which we always have recovered. We could, or not, this time. Global food failures are nothing new. Remember those awesome opening credits in Red Dawn ( the real one, not the Uber Crap remake )? Based on current events when made, the Soviet wheat harvest failures. And, obviously, oil crisis' are not new.

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What concerns me is that they are all happening at the same time. This is no guarantee of collapse, but it should be enough extra potential threat to concern most folks. It is just like a casino adding decks to the card game. Every extra one negates your ability to count those cards. Every new potential disaster means your ability of responding successfully diminishes. In 2008, fracking brought in extra energy from a plateau of global production. Increased production of energy allowed financial stimulus and increased food production. What we fracked, we didn't have to take from the global market. Instead of Saudi fuel to Happy Motoring, it could go to clearing the Argentina Pampas.

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During SARS and all the other Barnyard Flu's, we could divert resources towards disaster relief and containment, and for the most part most of the victim populations were well fed. Famine feeds disease. But this time? Peak Fracking. That is less energy to divert towards combating a potential pandemic. The banks in the middle of bailing out some of their own, trying to shove the toothpaste back into the derivatives tube, means less financial resources alongside less energy availability. And if the food failures continue, will the Beer Virus gain footholds in harder hit areas, weakened systems from calorie reduction?

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As I said, any ONE of the above is concern for system stability. All combined, even if none are serious in and of itself, might still be the piece of straw, the black swan. Who cares if Beer Virus never goes pandemic? It is already shutting down factories and trade. Which means there is increased pressure financially on already weakened companies ( global overcapacity and falling wages don't exactly help firms economically ). The liquidity crisis could be contained overall, helicopter money to the rescue, but the damage could already be done and the weakened firms further weakened by lack of products or customers tips them over the edge.

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And this time, energy is once again in decline. You can print all the money you desire, but you need energy to make anything, ship anything, keep a business open, its employees cars full and fed, etcetera. You don't have to run OUT of oil for there to be a crisis. DECLINING supplies will do just fine. The 70's were cured not by Volkner or Reagan, but by Alaskan oil. And that only worked because now we needed less oil to run far less factories. But a lot of oil did go into food production. We built a more centralized infrastructure to reduce consumer prices. Cheap food was policy, and it has worked wonders in the last ten years with social stability.

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But Jim, you mustachioed stud, the last decade was not THAT unstable. Ah, but can you imagine how unstable it would have been if food matched the increases of rent and transportation and college and medical care? I can, it it would have really been riots in the streets, not this fantasy macho BS the poodle shooter owners keep projecting. All our Dear Leaders are brainless babbling heads, above and below the waistline, but if policy is any indicator the one thing they are getting right is Food First. You'll note that the Obammy Era surge in Food Stamps wasn't pared back until retail prices had dropped substantially from $150 a barrel oil inflation levels.

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If our food failures increase and become New Normal, eventually the government and corporations will not be able to subsidize food sufficiently. Already weakened by energy price hikes and credit freeze-ups, the food failures will start impacting social stability, hard. THEN, perhaps Beer Virus 2.0 makes a come-back and does real damage, as food riots, open warfare and severe undernourishment or even famine strike. Too bad the Internet kill switch will be activated by Elizabeth Warren to stop “terrorists” ( anyone hungry and unwilling to get on the rail cars ) communications. Otherwise I could do a “told you so” dance in front of all the Frackers out there.

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I dare say, you have been warned.

( .Y. )

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