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Wednesday, February 12, 2020

are we already in collapse2?


ARE WE ALREADY IN COLLAPSE 2?
As discussed yesterday, no, no we are not. The collapse only starts when the fighting for food begins. As long as everyone is eating sufficiently, we are still TECHNICALLY in mere “decline”. Historians might look back and judge the date of collapse differently, but that is lack of evidence and Best Guesses. Here, boots on the ground, collapse starts when order isn't maintained. You will see little comfort as your corpse is cooling after an attack by OtherColor militia disguised as Disadvantaged Youth Forced Into Crime Due To Socioeconomic Forces, but if your neighbors are eating and there are police to take a report of the crime, it isn't collapse yet.
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Technically. For all intents and purposes we are in an ongoing collapse as fewer systems remain viable year after year, but as long as you are stuffing your piehole with Corn Derivatives watching SportsBall, we are just in decline. Malnourished isn't the same as Famine. BUT! I fear that the center cannot hold all that much longer. No one can time the collapse, not even myself, despite remaining steadfastly Baby Jesus' Most Favorite and having such perfect hair even women envy me ( and tremble after noticing my boot size ).
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But we can notice the probabilities. In 2008 we had a convergence of two disasters, food shortages globally and a Liquidity crisis as the derivatives market was threatening our financial system yet again, worse. This might have lead a few of you, primarily Fracking Fanboys or Trump Trumpeteers, to believe we have the tools to solve the current disaster. I stipulate that we do not ( while also humbly admitting this is no guarantee of collapse ). I can only note that four potential disasters isn't a doubling of probably collapse. It is exponentially worse.
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We have seen all these disasters before. The Beer Virus is just SARS. It could be worse, but right now it is still just a POTENTIAL pandemic. The liquidity crisis hits once or twice a decade, fueled by greedy bankers and profitable derivatives casino bets. Each time was magnitudes worse than the one before, but from which we always have recovered. We could, or not, this time. Global food failures are nothing new. Remember those awesome opening credits in Red Dawn ( the real one, not the Uber Crap remake )? Based on current events when made, the Soviet wheat harvest failures. And, obviously, oil crisis' are not new.
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What concerns me is that they are all happening at the same time. This is no guarantee of collapse, but it should be enough extra potential threat to concern most folks. It is just like a casino adding decks to the card game. Every extra one negates your ability to count those cards. Every new potential disaster means your ability of responding successfully diminishes. In 2008, fracking brought in extra energy from a plateau of global production. Increased production of energy allowed financial stimulus and increased food production. What we fracked, we didn't have to take from the global market. Instead of Saudi fuel to Happy Motoring, it could go to clearing the Argentina Pampas.
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During SARS and all the other Barnyard Flu's, we could divert resources towards disaster relief and containment, and for the most part most of the victim populations were well fed. Famine feeds disease. But this time? Peak Fracking. That is less energy to divert towards combating a potential pandemic. The banks in the middle of bailing out some of their own, trying to shove the toothpaste back into the derivatives tube, means less financial resources alongside less energy availability. And if the food failures continue, will the Beer Virus gain footholds in harder hit areas, weakened systems from calorie reduction?
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As I said, any ONE of the above is concern for system stability. All combined, even if none are serious in and of itself, might still be the piece of straw, the black swan. Who cares if Beer Virus never goes pandemic? It is already shutting down factories and trade. Which means there is increased pressure financially on already weakened companies ( global overcapacity and falling wages don't exactly help firms economically ). The liquidity crisis could be contained overall, helicopter money to the rescue, but the damage could already be done and the weakened firms further weakened by lack of products or customers tips them over the edge.
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And this time, energy is once again in decline. You can print all the money you desire, but you need energy to make anything, ship anything, keep a business open, its employees cars full and fed, etcetera. You don't have to run OUT of oil for there to be a crisis. DECLINING supplies will do just fine. The 70's were cured not by Volkner or Reagan, but by Alaskan oil. And that only worked because now we needed less oil to run far less factories. But a lot of oil did go into food production. We built a more centralized infrastructure to reduce consumer prices. Cheap food was policy, and it has worked wonders in the last ten years with social stability.
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But Jim, you mustachioed stud, the last decade was not THAT unstable. Ah, but can you imagine how unstable it would have been if food matched the increases of rent and transportation and college and medical care? I can, it it would have really been riots in the streets, not this fantasy macho BS the poodle shooter owners keep projecting. All our Dear Leaders are brainless babbling heads, above and below the waistline, but if policy is any indicator the one thing they are getting right is Food First. You'll note that the Obammy Era surge in Food Stamps wasn't pared back until retail prices had dropped substantially from $150 a barrel oil inflation levels.
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If our food failures increase and become New Normal, eventually the government and corporations will not be able to subsidize food sufficiently. Already weakened by energy price hikes and credit freeze-ups, the food failures will start impacting social stability, hard. THEN, perhaps Beer Virus 2.0 makes a come-back and does real damage, as food riots, open warfare and severe undernourishment or even famine strike. Too bad the Internet kill switch will be activated by Elizabeth Warren to stop “terrorists” ( anyone hungry and unwilling to get on the rail cars ) communications. Otherwise I could do a “told you so” dance in front of all the Frackers out there.
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I dare say, you have been warned.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click HERE )
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note: many and profuse thanks for the PayPal donation, WC.  
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33 comments:

  1. It holds together, only as long as those living and operating in their potemkin existence continue to believe and participate in the zombie systems. The stock market's on paper only wealth is buy back created and only supported by the share price increases of a handful few of corporations. A vast amount of operations make no extra cash or profits and operate on a leveraged existence. Again, the 'Mericans are back to usual behaviors of debt created good living and are blindly continuing the happy motoring, web troll shopping, peacock status displays. (Amazon and fedex trucks swarm into my dirt yard 'hood with deliveries of joy to the proles) No amount of Trump Humps standing upon stumps yelling maga is going to cure the infections of failing systems unable to support the rotted edifices, and endless onslaughts of more and more useless eaters. The Ted K. flashlighted shortcomings of systems are presented regularly, but no one notices due to hubris and a rose colored glasses view of their personal "matrix program" world. The collapse is in progress, (geologically slow by your short human life time of reference), but most are missing the news as they are "tuned to the wrong channel". Stay frosty.

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  2. Seems like the biggest effect of the coronavirus hasn't even hit yet. Shipping is already down 23 percent and forecasts say March will be interesting as the shortages become apparent.

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    1. Damn, I didn't realize the shipping numbers were THAT bad. Panic early. I went into Family Dollar yesterday, and Tuesday is usually when all the shelves are bare as the truck just delivered but nothing is on the shelves yet. Surprisingly, there was still a decent amount of fever OTC meds available. I mean, not after I left :) Point being, you still have a small window to beat the rush.

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    2. Lol, hopefully your mad purchase didn't trigger any meth flags, but understand the purpose. No wheat to buy here, but rice and beans still easy enough to stock

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    3. None of the good stuff like that available. It was just generic Tylonal, generic Advil, cough drops. Well, calories are calories, even if it nasty rice. Enough to make a turd.

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  3. Mennonite I know sums it up thusly; 'Real wealth only comes from mining, manufacturing, and agriculture.'

    Consider how al-AmeriKwa fares on these criteria. Scary.

    Wait til the LocustSwarms reach Asia's ricebowls. Buhbye

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    1. Most people are as scared of history as I am of math. No history, no worries. You mean paper currency isn't forever?

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    2. You mean the "sky shrimp"? Asians don't have the taboos against eating bugs that those of Abramic religions do, and even in Japan, the yearly trip out to the country to net and toast up grasshoppers is an old tradition.

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    3. Eating the sky shrimp works great. Until there are millions and you only get a few meals out of it, next to an empty grain field.

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  4. There is not any outward evidence yet of constrictions in the supply and business flows in 'Merica yet. The MSM and TPTB are deftly using the foreigner's problems in the news cycle along with the natural human xenophobic inclinations as a reassuring psychological blankey for calming skittish consumers. Folks assume .gov is all over it with the projected "our boys on the job" imagery and sound bite info crumbs.

    Since true survivalist Minions are numerically less than even the three percenter patriot accolytes, there is not any outward indicators being displayed by the populace of an impending crunch coming.

    I recently hard shopped some stock ups in plain sight amongst the humanoid cattle. My shopping buggy looked like a short form list of merchandise depicted in a redoubter novel. The nice Filipina cashier lady noted the Anglo fellow buying large, with cash, and enjoyed turning up her friendly dial for a legit customer for a change. It is an instinctive matriarchal respect for providing, that is an unwritten and unspoken code among alert humans.

    Only those with personal or tribal experiences of privation, starvation, open warfare, and bloddletting seiges as a form of quarrantine can mentally digest what their senses are trying to communicate back to the lizard brain.

    Amongst the white noise and background chatter of society, go on about those preps with a monk's dilligence. Stay frosty.

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    1. Great observation on the response of clerk. I hadn't thought of it as such. Mad respect.

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  5. In my best Dr. McCoy voice...

    Dang it Jim, "I'm a minion, not a Hoarder."

    Sooooo, I just spent some of the tax refund because I listen as a loyal minion.

    I've added to the stash and though our Lord would be pleased that a lowly minion is paying attention. Get it now, while it is on SALE!!!

    https://palmettostatearmory.com/american-eagle-5-56mm-62gr-fmj-steel-core-ammunition-1000-rounds-xm855csf.html

    ;)

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    1. That is a good deal, and thank you! I'm glad I'm not the only idiot stocking deep.

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    2. I saw this earlier and went to order at 9pm my time. Out of stock. Thats what I get for a busy day.

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    3. Out of stock. Also, they warned that ammunition can expose you to dangerous substances including lead.

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    4. Especially if it is travelling fast

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    5. Nightshift-don't feel bad. Some days if I'm late checking e-mail, the specials are gone by 9AM

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  6. I am feeling a lot better about my situation now. I buried eight buckets of storage food and supplies at property #2. Found a mountain bike and tuned it up and camouflaged it. Took the wheels off and tied them to the frame and pulled it up and hung it in a huge pine tree. I am going to go on a hike in March from one property to the other, seeing how far I go in a day and finding places to cache supplies along the way. See how long it takes and at what points I might need supplies. Then I will be able to ride the bike back home.

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    Replies
    1. If it helps you sleep at night, it is priceless. Sounds like a great plan.

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  7. There's a video doing the rounds of a Singaporean store where the shelves have been stripped bare of literally everything.

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    1. Even eating rice, those little Mo Humpers are smarter than 'Muricans.

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  8. Before the collapse, comes the contraction. But as Aesop noted, it may start faster than Bernie Sanders on a wallet.

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    1. Bernie Sanders (I calculated this) was old enough for the Senior Discount at Arby's when Internet Explorer first came out.

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    2. Was that the cheating AARP 50, the traditional 55, or the Social Security 62? Either way, yeah, Full Retard old.

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  9. On Knuckledraggin, today's link is to a story about the murder of a witness after his identity was disclosed to defense lawyers.

    The defendants?
    Members of the MS-13 fellowship of immigrants eager to assimilate and contribute to MAGA.

    All this yabber about accumulating more stuff reminds me to strengthen my relationships with decent folk.
    Stuff is dandy, proven trustables willing to help out on a 'rough day at work' are better.

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  10. Simple thought exercise - Is the tree 'in decline' until it hits the ground, whence it is 'in collapse'? Or is it 'in decline' when the saw starts cutting? It's mostly BAU for the tree and its inhabitants during and immediately after the fall. I've seen a cut tree set fruit using the last of its reserves. At what point do you call it collapse? Metaphors can be a useful aid to clear thinking.

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    Replies
    1. Aye, removing the personal elements of an argument often makes for startling clarity.

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