Tuesday, August 6, 2019

how far is too far?


HOW FAR IS TOO FAR?
We just talked about the Colorado valley off grid folks and their run in with Johnny Law, Zoning Police Division. I wanted to talk a bit more about moving TOO far off the grid. I want you to think of one thing. Carbon fuel cost increases. Note I did NOT say “Peak Oil”. I'm not talking about running out ( although we are-it is just disguised by fracking gasoline overabundance and economic slowdown decreasing factory demand. But, fine! I won't go on and on about the start of our last decade with oil. Jeez! ).
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I'm talking about the cost of fuel soaring. As I keep trying to remind you, the PetroDollar is dying. It isn't dying in ten or twenty years, but rather is HAS BEEN dying starting several years ago. Once that bad boy goes, no one will want our currency for commodities. Our economy will go off the rails ( way before the rest of the world ). Two out of three of the biggest oil producers no longer adhere strictly to the dollars for oil dictate. The third one is losing money producing enough unwanted gasoline to pretend to be a top producer and is already going into debt to buy foreign oil.
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Let me remind you folks that the reason we did so well economically for fifty years ( meaning, we didn't completely crash ) was because we traded Treasury bonds ( debt ) for oil. In exchange for THE only commodity that matters ( it even grows our food, and can deliver hookers and blow ), fuzzy foreigners took our worthless paper. We talked Saudi Arabia into this arrangement, back when they controlled OPEC and when they had gazillions of barrels of oil. The reason others did it was because the bonds were just a trading chit.
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Treasury bonds, and by extension the US Dollar, was As Good As Oil. It was better than gold, there being way more of it. But 2005 was the year it all started to unravel. Not quickly. Unlike today's politicians who are as clueless as the Sky Screamers who elect them, the 90's Boys Behind The Curtain actually did a bang up job moving events in our favor. The entire 90's economic expansion was because of Siberian Oil ( just as Alaska and the North Sea saved the '80's ), a pretty prize we won after we Color Revolution'ed Russia.
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And making a pretext of our False Flag 9/11 to invade and occupy the middle east allowed us to control the oil. We invaded Iraq because of their toying with the idea of Euro's For Oil. Bad Saddam! No biscuit for you. Play nice with the Dollar ( because dollars for oil is Our Debt For Your Oil ). Peak Oil was well known to the neocons, and while they are clueless and idiots today, that is only because they took a failing strategy and doubled down on it. But it worked wonderfully back then.
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But after 2005 we were fighting an uphill battle and slowly losing ground. Libya was the last time ( 2011 ) we successfully crushed any foreign leader who tried to leave King Dollar. Now, it is probably easier to list those left on the dollar standard than all those who dropped it ( whether in full or partially, it makes little difference ). It is already Game Over. The Treasury Bonds already issued are the ones trading hands with foreigners. No one has bought any new ones for years ( for all intents and purposes ). We hold auctions and pretend it isn't ourselves buying the debt.
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We can't go back to being the worlds primary gold holder ( that ship sailed way before Nixon closed the gold window ). We can't go back to being the globes primary oil producer ( we pretend by mixing Fracking gasoline with Canadian tar sand sludge, but nobody that matters is fooled ). We aren't the globes breadbasket anymore ( that is Russia ). And the dollar certainly is NOT the worlds reserve currency anymore. We can't even force Venezuela to use the Dollar for oil sales. All we can do is hack their electric grid on occasion, in childish displeasure.
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I keep repeating the above because it is important to realize our economy is endangered not because the stock market is overvalued, but because we can no longer get the world to pay our debt, AND when enough nations dump the dollar we will have a hard time importing anything ( and in case you missed the news flash, we import a LOT, including one third our oil ). The oil is running out, quick enough. But before that, we have to worry about our economy taking a Big Squishy.
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This should be a Three Way screw job. At about the time our financial sector crashes ( from the derivatives market, once again ), taking the fracking industry with it ( we roll over and issue new debt to keep the money losing frackers pumping-how are we going to do that as the banks are failing? When fracking is nationalized you can bet production crashes ), foreigners will all dog pile on to the Chinese/Russian trading currency, AND imports dry up. Unemployment goes through the roof ( real unemployment went from 10% in the bad areas to 25% in the formally good areas, after 2008 ).
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Remember, never forget, and write it on your forehead, the 2008 crash was a few US banks as the bad dominoes. 2019 is going to be the worlds institutions all failing at once, economically. Given the trends ALREADY in place, not some fanciful projections you just hope never unfold, are you comfortable placing your trust in your job and our ability to provide enough fuel for your commute? And if so, why? If you would like to guess how competent our government will be running the fracking fields, look how well Afghanistan is working out for them. Or, the ObamaCare web site. The future of our government is the same as a Diversity Hire designed pedestrian bridge in Florida.
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You also need to be very aware that competence is no longer about the correct people. In a failing system, the “right” people are never used, mainly because people are also a resource and the system started failing because resources were running out. There is no “fixing” the system since it was already broken. Your qualified engineer isn't hired because he costs too much, and he costs too much because the surplus is already accounted for ( it ain't payroll ) by the rulers and for partially fixing all the problems the rulers caused by their wealth extraction.
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And the wealth extraction is so hurtful because the surplus is gone, and the seed corn is being used. All those bastards who got rich off of the oil surplus, do you really think they will voluntarily give up their wealth and power just because we are running out of that surplus? Or, do you perhaps think they will instead just squeeze the blood out of the stone a little harder? That is why failing systems aren't saved. Our system is failing, and won't be saved. American Exceptionalism is a foolish delusion. Hubris, meet Short Bus Sammy.
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We could be ten years from running out of oil ( and again, let me remind you that fracking is sucking the dregs out left over from conventional pumping, it is NOT a new source of oil ), but in a year or two, or hell, I don't know, even LESS, we will have problems getting that oil or paying for it. I know you don't want to hear me. I wonder if you are even listening. But, regardless, I fearlessly forge ahead further, tomorrow.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click HERE )
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20 comments:

  1. Correct and spot on, Jim. There is only one solution for the resource depletion and ratio of sustainment numbers being raped. Bigly die off. That is the only way, as no one is going to go frugal to save earth, not me either. System collapse like silica sand poured into perfectly good engines (during cash for clunkers shenanigans) will be caused by the overlords as a scorched earth stop gap measure.

    Just don't be in the way of things, once it pops off.

    Stay Frosty.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Spicy Time is when you get splattered by the morning after diarrhea.

      Delete
  2. “I wanted to talk a bit more about moving TOO far off the grid. I want you to think of one thing. Carbon fuel cost increases.”


    It would be more challenging, but it’s the best option if you can pull it off. You would have to minimize your petroleum dependence through use of solar panels, and vehicles that use little petrol (A dual sport motorcycle with a trailer). Try to do the yearly shopping gig, which would require a truck rental.

    If you’re not so far out, then you have to be more coy about it. The building dept dude told me that I could legally camp on my formerly west point Ca land for two weeks (Also the home town for a while of moon landing conspiracy godfather, William “Bill” Kaysing). I then think that you must leave for a period of 48 hours. This assumes that you are under scrutiny, but something tells me that they won’t want to dedicate a person to watch over you for this period. But in a worse case scenario, you can consider two junk parcels near one another, and switch between the two. Now you have a perfectly legal loop hole. A trailer is completely self contained, and even if you don’t live in it, it makes a good decoy for the county.

    I think that for a national forest, there is a two week limit, and then you must move on, and I believe that it is a minimum of 20 miles. But you must confirm this, as I’m going mostly from memory here.

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    1. Selective enforcement. Once they decide, there is a law against all behavior.

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    2. Exactly,everybody is planning based on current law.
      They are in for a rude awakening.

      2:48

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  3. Hey Jim. Do you have a link for that chicken wire, cement ferrocement deal, that you always mention here? I was thinking about the hexayurt for a long time, but the ferrocement deal seems like it would be much easier.

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    1. I'll be damned if I can find the original web page I copied and filed. Some guy building a roof of it in Florida. Published about 20 years ago I think. Anyway, here is, perhaps, a suitable alternative:
      http://ferrocement.com/intro-Ferro/intro.en.html

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    2. I had a look Jim. It’s a start, but I seem to recall something along the lines of a geodesic shape? Not that it matters, since now we’re starting to get more complicated with our geometry, and that’s something that I wish to avoid. I did however come across this:

      https://www.instructables.com/id/1,000-Year-Doghouse/

      It’s inspiring since it looks fairly simple. Yes, it’s a dog house, much like the Dogloo dog house. I’ve often thought to myself that one of the bigger Dogloo models would, in a pinch, serve as an emergency shelter for a person. Well, this provides a cost effective, and more customizable alternative to the same thing.

      Something like this looks even more simple, since it is round:

      https://i.pinimg.com/736x/96/a9/b1/96a9b18dc001a712238b2a89d29dd723.jpg

      And simplicity is what it’s all about, at least for me. Too difficult, and it will never happen.

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    3. He might be talking about the Starr hardware.

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    4. I recall a MEN article about an inflated balloon in the shape of your structure, then blown concrete sprayed on. After cure, the balloon is removed.

      Blown concrete is standard for in-ground swim pools.

      This dome is slightly higher tech than hog-wire and adobe.

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    5. But of course, Yuppie Scum expensive.

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    6. That looks like the one’s 4:37, thanks. That said, I think I’ll go even simpler. The construction method of that dog house that I linked above bypasses the cement soaked sheet that Jim has mentioned, and relies on the chicken wire being close enough in layers, that you can just slap the cement mix right on to it (Think in terms of lathe and plaster walls, prior to the availability of sheet rock). On second thought, maybe Jim’s sheet method is easier? I’d also like to semi-earth shelter the end result, probably by shoring up the sides of a bank with some beams.

      We’ll see. I still think that partially burying an existing object is probably as easy as it gets.

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    7. I always wondered about burying a van, but with a ferrocement coat before filling the dirt back in. Window uncovered facing south if a cold climate.

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    8. That’s what I was thinking Jim. I still have my now defunct Plymouth Voyager mini van sitting in the yard, though it’d be hell dragging that thing all the way to Nevada.

      I was thinking of excavating about 3’ down or so, with a slight ramp up at one end, so that I could roll it right into the hole, then cover over the remainder with straw bales and light earth. I was going to spray it down with that black tar looking auto undercoat that they treat the bottom of car chassis with, but your ferrocement idea is probably cheaper. This leaves me with the rear hatch as a door, which to me, is not ideal, but would work. I could also bore a hole right into the roof, and have an entrance from the top too. The rear seats all come out of that thing with ease, as they’re latched in, as opposed to bolted in.

      Another idea that I had was to simply build a big wooden box, like a shipping crate, though obviously reinforced, and partially bury it. This might actually be the easiest.

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    9. I'm sure the ferrocement needs waterproofing also. The cement is to keep the dirt from crushing the car. Although, I think that is negated with all the bales plus only going down three feet.

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  4. "Libya was the last time ( 2011 ) we successfully crushed any foreign leader who tried to leave King Dollar."

    Don't forget that we also used that opportunity to steal the 143 tons of gold they had in their central bank.

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    1. I believe the gold was the whole point of the Ukraine upset. And there was a Bush Bitch country we got involved in, joined by France. There were reports of gold theft then, and right after we paid the gold we owed to another country. Wish I could remember the two countries involved. I got the info from Golden Jackass on that one, so I consider it legit. Anyway, we keep stealing gold to pay off everyone who wants theirs back because Ft. Knox hasn't had anything in there for forty, fifty plus years. If we didn't pay, that would upset the paper gold market, backed by butt tons of derivatives. With Douche Bank the way it is, we can't be having that ( 9:06, apologies if you already know this. When I answer a comment I usually assume everyone else is reading it )

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  5. The last barrel of oil will be left in the ground, too expensive (in energy terms) to bring up. I still have notes on a post I started last October(!) about this. Need to crunch the numbers.

    In reality, I'm thinking social forces (brought on by credit woes) will crater infrastructure before oil goes.

    Sweet dreams.

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    1. I've been studying Peak Oil for near twenty years, and it just gets scarier. Yes, confirmation bias. But you are correct. The last positive EROI barrel won't be pumped up in a vacuum. Outside forces will be the Darwin winners prior to that. What amazes me is that there is any social trust left to keep the banking institutions functioning right now.

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