yeasty 2

YEASTY 2

There was a guy, awhile ago.  He knew basic math.  Look, says he, historically food production expands slightly.  People expand much faster.  Do you see a problem?  Nobody likes what he has to say, so it is a good thing he kept his day job.  Some crazy cracker comes along with a theory of relativity and everyone gets all excited and makes T-shirts with his face on them.  Which is just slightly more important?  Where is the coffee mugs with Malthus?  This is what I mean by us being retarded.  We might be smart, at times, but we don’t act like it.

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You all are worshiping a guy with really bad hair.  The other guy with nice hair, everyone ignores.  We can’t get a guy with a mustache elected and we can’t revere someone with a glowing mane.  Our priorities are askew.  Look at the Chinese.  They used to expect famine on a schedule.  It was part of their culture, it was so ingrained in their history.  And now, to make pennies of profit off plastic, they poison or pave over farmland, just as dependent on eating petroleum as we are.  Only eighty years later, we’ve forgotten how we were starving.

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And, fine, that is human nature.  That is the nature of an oligarchy.  We don’t have a choice that a few gabazillionaires profit off our destruction of farmland and our energy dependence.  But we do have a choice to insure ourselves against the stupidity of others.  That is what prepping is about.  And I don’t mean a case of oh so yummy MRE’s ( I’m being sarcastic.  A week or two of that crap will cure your craving of them, for life ).  Any prepper stopping at natural disaster or camping/BOB levels of food isn’t really preparing.  They are playing.

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The smallest apartment has a bed.  Make a storage container under that.  That is the START of your storage food.  If you can cache, bury more food.  If you can’t, figure something else out.  Have a Mylar bag of wheat, at the back of a cupboard behind pots and pans.  Have them under all four seats in your car, and some in the trunk.  If you must, get some sheetrock and paint, and fill up a wall with Spam and peanut butter and like calorie dense foods.  Stop trying to be organized and just stuff any area possible.

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Because here is the thing.  Malthus was right.  Only the arrival of coal and oil made him wrong.  And when that is gone, he will be right again.  2005 was Peak Oil globally.  More and more, the energy replacing conventional crude is the Fake Fuels, with far less net energy.  THAT right there is the issue (  we used to pump 10 million, and it took 100k barrels to do so.  Now it takes 8 million to deliver us 78.  What did you think a 10 to 1 EROI meant?  For eight times the oil we need 80 times the energy to get it ). 

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As our population keeps expanding, our energy supply ( which grows and delivers all our food ) per capita shrinks ( more people as a global percentage are using oil now than when the Oil Age started ).  We aren’t running out of oil, we are running out of oil left over from the process of getting oil ( on a per person basis ).  And we are running out of enough that it is endangering all other non-oil industries, such as farming.  It doesn’t happen tomorrow, but soon enough.

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It took twelve years or so for Mexico to go from peak production to beginning to import oil for its own use.  A decade makes a huge difference in oil, today.  You can’t wait for energy production to begin endangering the food supply, not if you want to stock up while the food is affordable and available.  I warn you of a danger in ten years and you think you have ten years before you have to worry ( and please don’t take that timeline literally.  It could be less ).  But you have to worry NOW.

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That is how it works.  You start stocking at the beginning of summer, not at the end of fall.  Once shortages start, there is no stockpiling.  The US is not completely food independent.  Crap gets moved around, as demanded.  It isn’t just grapes from Chile in the winter, but Montana wheat to Pakistan after a flood ( the Midwest flooding might hurt China more than us-MIGHT ).  There is no profit in storing food for emergencies, so that need is met by freely trading globally.  There are no more emergency stockpiles, unless YOU have your own.

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It is easy to scoff at panic, in times of plenty.  It is easy to scoff at past cries of wolf.  But why isn’t it easy to see the year after year constant trend of us inching towards an inadequate food supply?  The CIA introducing AIDS to Africa hardly makes a dent in the population over there.  Disease is almost always only effective AFTER food supplies are falling.  Something these zombie books all neglect to take into account.  Plague decimated Rome AFTER the food shortages ( prior instances had seen rapid recovery ).  Every year, lots and globs MORE people.  The increase in food is ALREADY not keeping up.

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A large part of how we coped with that was by drawing down reserves.  Every year, the amount of food available in an emergency shrinks ( we still have to store grain until needed-it just doesn’t sit as long.  And THAT amount has steadily declined ).  We went from something like three months of grain down to one month.  And as you’ve seen in the last decade, that was low enough that any major supply issue is reflected by immediate shortages and price hikes.  The trend is already in place and we just await it affecting us.

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This is the mindset that you have to guard against, this focus on immediate emergencies.  We worry about a Nork nuke attack, tomorrow.  We worry about the stock market crashing, tomorrow.  Yellowstone could erupt, tomorrow.  In the meantime, higher probability events are already in motion, but they probably won’t happen tomorrow.  But they WILL, definitely, happen.  We panic for no reason on something that MIGHT happen tomorrow and ignore what WILL happen in a year or five or ten.  Overpopulation is already a proven, reliable problem.  The consequences of that will be upon us soon enough.

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The Midwest flooding should be all the warning you need.  Not because it proves we will be starving by the end of the year, but because it proves you cannot time the collapse.  And that collapse will involve food shortages.  Food First.

( .Y. )

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