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Sunday, May 14, 2017

oil collapse


OIL COLLAPSE
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note: BP, got your very generous PayPal donation-thank you very much!
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Yes, yes, I know sometimes I just annoyingly repeat myself.  Some days the blog entries are just rehashes or repeats or reminders.  I can’t be “on” every single day even if I do try to meet that impossible goal, nor can every day bring priceless nuggets of wisdom.  Some days you just need to glory in my vastly entertaining writing style and be content with that.  Today I’m covering Quick Oil Collapse.  Perhaps some of my New And Improved Army Of Loyal Minions ( newbies ) haven’t already read on my musing on this subject.  Otherwise, see the above proviso.  The one thing, amongst many, I hate about most other bloggers is their propensity to focus on only a VERY slow collapse of centuries, or ONLY a quick collapse which allows them to keep their well paying urban jobs until the very last second, the better to buy Yuppie Scum Survival Treats, with a then improbable recovery quickly following.  Quick Collapses are convenient.  Too much so.  Zombies, asteroid strikes and EMP’s clear out the deadwood quickly and allow intrepid survivalists freer reign to rule their kingdoms.

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Which is a bit too fantastical, obviously.  I tend to favor longer declines with a sudden collapse eventually, the Waterfall Collapse ( we‘ve been in one for fifty years, so the over the lip part should show up shortly ) followed by centuries of Dark Age.  Italian doomers call it the Seneca model.   But while improbable, quick collapses aren’t impossible.  Hence, the sudden oil collapse scenario.  Peak Oil didn’t turn out to be about running out suddenly but rather about rapidly decreasing net energy, but you can still get a quick collapse out of oil in other ways.  The PetroDollar is suddenly crushed or fails.  The Saudi fields halt production.  Economic collapse halts trade.  These are all very easily achieved, and have all already happened in embryonic form.  That obviously doesn’t mean they WILL happen, just that they CAN.  I don’t mean that you need to prep for this as much as I mean you shouldn’t listen to the idiots out there that assure you the oil can’t ever possibly run out.  Prepping for this is easy, AND saves you money rather than costs you any, but none of you want to make those sacrifices ( give up the car, reduce electrical use, build your own super insulated hovel, etc. ).

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The PetroDollar standard is where Saudi Arabia in the early ‘70’s agreed to price its oil in Dollars.  Everybody had to have dollars on hand to buy oil, since Saudi Arabia was at that time the swing producer.  There are not enough physical dollar bills printed to pay for tens of millions of barrels of oil trading hands every day, so US Treasury Bonds were used as trading currency.  And as we know, those suckers can be created at will.  In effect, foreign countries bought our debt to buy oil, and we started buying more and more imported oil with debt since that was cheaper than drilling for it ( not that we have much left to drill, to include Alaska and the Gulf Of Mexico ).  It was a sweet deal, free oil.  Well, as you might imagine other countries didn’t share our enthusiasm as they had to produce real goods to get those oil trading tokens.  So, we threatened the world forcing them to take those tokens ( invading Iraq was about Suddam threatening to drop the PetroDollar ) while at the same time the world has been trying to sidestep the standard.

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As it turns out, Libya was the last régime change to halt the Standard Rejection that was successful.  Since then, under the protective wing of a Chinese-Russian partnership, many countries have evaded or replaced trading in Treasuries for oil ( almost no one buys our bonds anymore-most of the activity is our own central bank ).  Our biggest oil import comes from Canada now, and that isn’t even for real oil but sand slop ( hence the very real threat to Net Energy Totals ).  We HAD to monetize the debt since foreigners no longer want the crap.  Not because we won’t repay-no one ever believed we would ( we just paid the interest ) but because they no longer NEED to pay the penalty incurred.  Buying oil in dollars was a cost, not a convenience.   Treasury bonds were NEVER a safe investment as the propaganda claims but a necessity for buying oil.  Now it no longer is mandatory for everyone.  It is only a matter of time before nobody props up the system.

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Why do you think that Saudi oil production is a god given right that is never allowed to cease?  Nobody has heard of entropy?  Nobody knows about Black Swans?  They have several problems over there.  Peak Production, population pressure, Arab Spring type dissent only silenced by welfare payments ( if American Blacks can shut down local areas in protest, why can’t poor Saudi’s? ) and centralized vulnerabilities.  Granted, Saudi oil is only a bit above ten percent of global production now rather than the old twenty percent or so, and right now oil demand is so low that Saudi oil disappearing at this time might actually be beneficial in the very short term, so the dynamic isn’t the exact same, but the fundamentals remain.  Saudi oil is less energy intense as it used to be, and economic contraction is killing oil demand, but Saudi oil is still some of the better oil available and it would have a disproportionate effect on the market if it disappeared.  Not everyone can distill the heavier more sulfur laden oil and prices going up right now would just kill more demand.  Nobody wins with no Saudi crude.  Before, without it the machines would grind to a halt from lack of fuel, but now without it more machines would be shut down from lack of affordable fuel.  Not a huge difference in the end.  I’ll continue and conclude tomorrow with detailing the Saudi chokepoints and talking about economics killing oil delivery.

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14 comments:

  1. "(...) to focus on only a VERY slow collapse of centuries, or ONLY a quick collapse (...)"

    The Cyberattack on Friday evening is such an event that shows us that collapses can be complex, divided into sudden events and slow evolutions.

    Imagine that this attack wasn't a NSA false flag boondoggle like it is now obviously the case, but either a real attack or a real failure. Here you have it, no computers, including your own right here. This event happens lightning fast.

    Then people have to adapt, and there is some semblance of order in the following days. For instance, Metro lines and railways would let their passengers ride for free since they can't sell tickets anyway (nor would they be able to process fines). ( last Friday In Germany the attack hit the timetable displays but the trains still rolled). Supermarkets limit the amount of the total price of products that can be purchased, they accept checks and cash and policemen keep an eye on people. Everybody believes this is a matter of days, surely there are some backups.

    Now this can last some time. Neighbours, family come for short-term help on small stuff (toilet paper, toothpaste, whatever) and you can't shoo them away yet. Most people have 2 to 3 days of *something* to eat.

    This latent period is extremely stressful, and it seems it takes forever to go apeshit, something that everybody expects and nobody wants.

    When it finally goes south after a couple of days, what will it look like ? It depends on where you live, what you do, who you are. It could be family backstabbing you. Children making mistakes (this BBC blackout documentary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSIyVeUT78w makes you want to put them to sleep as soon as the lights go off).

    It could be completely random. Or nothing happens but your stress destroys you. You can only prep and anticipate so far. This last sentence is bad for sales, and for blog reclick value because it offers no solution, no matter how far-fecthed.

    Sometimes it's better to say there's no solution rather than making someone believe there is going to be one, or that "we'll find a way".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I like "we're all going to die anyway so take out as many of the bastards as you can before that". It isn't a solution but highly satisfying as reality screws you. Preps are just for in case you survive the die off, not an assurance.

      Delete
    2. @ Ave - I think it was you but it was a comment by a loyal minion that laid out a hybrid BIC plan for preparing so family could use the preps. I've taken that to heart & have styrofoam boxes with 1 week food & consumables for 2 people & 1 dog (mine). Water for drinking for 1 week (2ppl & dog) fits in a milk crate. There's 2 knives for self defence as well. That prep covers everything for 2 ppl, no thinking required, for 1 week.

      When I look at that prep I know I have 1 week that I don't have to stress. Might even tidy that out & make a submission for a minion post

      Apologies for that rambling post it's made in my phone whilst in bed wishing I didn't have to get up

      Delete
    3. Goof progress Dingo !
      On the french survivalist blog, I posted back in 2006 ( http://www.le-projet-olduvai.com/t105-stock-boite-de-ration-hebdomadaire - it used to have pictures ) a version of a weekly individual food box. It was based on standard cardboard box made to hold paper , there are lots of them in any office. They have a standard size and have enough volume to have one week of cans in them. A sturdy plastic liner bag is included (to be used either as trash bag or improvised toilet), actually it is deployed first and the content put inside. Toilet paper is also added inside the box (if you eat food, at one moment it will come out, very important principle)

      There is a paper listing the content of the bag, and a copy of that in a binder, so I know what I have. I made two batches of 8 weeks each, so I could purchase the content in bulk. Actually there is just enough space for tin cans, some jars of sauce or jam, and some dry bread, but the main carbs (oil, rice, pasta, couscous etc.) have to be stocked elsewhere.

      I made thr last batch in 2007. One of these days I am going to take the batch of 2005 and try it out. I don't believe in rotation.

      I still stockpile foodstuff but only on sale or in bulk. I tend to diversify a lot, since there is such a thing as taste fatigue. I also have way too much cans in my pantry. It is due to lazyness, but also experience from the Week Boxes, at one point you get a sense of quantity based on volume.

      Delete
  2. The video I linked to had terrible quality, this version is better :

    Blackout (Feature-length 'What-If' drama exploring devastation of cyber-attack on Britain)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqhf7ORdEuM

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The US version of Bkackout is far better because guns 😎

      I really enjoyed the us version. The rich couple in New York really annoyed me. Heck, they'd annoy me even if the power was on.

      The other character whose life expectancy around me shtf is the boyfriend of the survivalists fathers daughter. Mate, you're a long haired hippy who I've only just met. There's only one man allowed to have luxurious hair in North America and that's Lord Bison. Seriously though, that character endangered everyone

      So yeah, watch the US version of Blackout. I think it was a Nat geo doco

      Delete
  3. @ Ave - hey mate. Just saw you on another blog that I visit daily & have so for years (vault co)

    I think you also follow Vox blog as well ??


    Bison, Vox & vault co are my daily reads (in that order)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't you tease me unless I'm really #1!

      Delete
    2. You are number 1, Almost don't read anyone else

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    3. Of course you're Number One, Jim

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oy-3KI2eHi4

      Unless you're a free man, not a number !
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nW-bFGzNMXw

      Delete
    4. Dingo I don't know the Vox blog. Since Bison Prepper and Vault-Co have very strong individulaity, how could you describe Vox ?

      Could you also provide a link to it ?

      Delete
    5. Look under "vox day blog" if I'm not mistaken.

      Delete
  4. Yeah Vox Day doesn't seem to be my type. He has an entry in wikipedia and conservapedia, which automatically creates a distance between me and him. I like to chat with Jim and Cleve and exchange ideas. If a blog gets too much following my voice is drowned out or I get banned (no, really).

    I don't even manage to follow Jim and Cleve as often as I would, so I'll leave it at that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I love ya, brother. And hell will freeze over before I get "big".

      Delete

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