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Monday, May 15, 2017

oil collapse 2


OIL COLLAPSE 2
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note: the BBB no.11 is now available. 
“Barter Town” ( 18 pages ) the many issues with survival bartering. ( was posted to this blog )
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“PODA Living” ( 32 pages ) a small scale anthological look at daily life ten years after PODA.
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Yesterday we talked about the PetroDollar standard and how it was been failing.  We invaded Iraq to preserve it, and that was all fine and dandy as it bought everyone a half decade of swilling at the trough of a real estate bubble surpluses, but now we have no more middle class home assets allowing them to be good little consumers which has killed the global economy and we are still wasting money occupying the place.  We didn’t have a choice, you kick the can down the road when you have to, but if all those unintended consequences flowed from preventing the collapse of the PetroDollar, can you image what is going to happen when the standard completely collapses?  Good times, buddy!  It will make your pulp novel macho men MRE eating mall ninja men’s adventure series tales seem rather quant and optimistic. 

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Anyway, everyone wants to think gold or presidential elections or fracking oil or whatever ( notice how we went from the hydrogen economy to the corn alcohol economy and now the fracking economy, each “when England ran out of trees they found coal” fairy tale meant to sooth our jangled nerves over the end of Happy Motoring, and now nothing else seems to be taking frackings place even as it is obviously failing.  Now even propaganda seems to be beyond their abilities ) will save our economic slide but I believe that since the economic contraction thus far has been merely a result of net energy decline then when the volume of oil is severely curtailed on top of that we will see a disaster.  It doesn’t even have to be the PetroDollar crashing.  We might not even see that event.  It could be as simple as imports declining every year as oil producing countries need more and more energy for their own populations ( Saudi declines are due to production failing AND more needed for their civilians.  A bit of an overpopulation issue over there in the middle east ).  It needn’t get to zero imports before our economy takes a bit squishy.

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You might look at me all slack jawed and drooling when I state that food is everything in human affairs and since oil underpins all of our food production meaning oil is food, then it is All About The Oil.  But surely you would at least agree that the economy itself is run and determined by oil inputs?  How hard is that to admit?  Capitalism runs off interest on loans and interest can only be created by introducing a surplus.  And for some time that surplus is increased oil production and use, and when oil production or use dipped we had a recession and when it stayed down we got our last Depression.  It ain’t no damn Great Recession and it certainly was never recovered from.  We are in a Depression where mortality isn’t from starvation like the last time ( yes, there was.  The claims of such are hotly contested but you can bet it happened-common sense alone dictate it but since the worse offender of any President must be elevated and kept on his pedestal nothing bad like that could have happened on his watch  ) but malnutrition and drug and alcohol slow suicides. 

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You put a happy face on the economy to pretend your job won’t be delivering you a pink slip any day now, but that is no way to face the economic collapse.  Because we are right now set in stone on the way towards the bottom on this slow track but could jump over to the faster one if anything else disrupts the oil supply.  Like Something Wicked Coming this way if internal affairs in Saudi Arabia turn for the worse.  We’ve already talked of their peak production and I shan’t belabor that point other than to say that at a MINIMUM their production is down a quarter and they are following our lead introducing less energy rich fuels into the mix.  But overpopulation there is causing a lot of issues ( overpopulation in our country is doing the same, and yet moronic scumbags want MORE damn Latinos and Muslims to be invited in ).  There is no employment, worse there even if it is bad everywhere ( China has already been kicking the can down the road on that one ).  Unemployed people can leave to go fight for Allah elsewhere, and plenty do since while you might die at least you can share your pain and make a difference, but plenty more are left in the country to add to the resource depletion and the dissent.  Right now welfare payments buy off the population from rioting which would be terrible to the elite.  That might endanger their wealth flow.  Just as an American CEO will put people on public welfare for an added quarterly bonus, the Saudi royal family puts the whole population on the public teat to shut them up.

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But when you can’t raise the price of oil, at the same time you are pumping less ( I think we pretty much all assumed raising prices going along with decreased production, but since manufactured goods demand fell before the oil supply-or perhaps they were in tandem-we have a current glut ) then your welfare scheme is in grave danger.  We could get a real, rather than the defacto engineered, Arab Spring there soon.  And one of the targets there is the mostly centralized oil processing facilities.  Centralization is wonderful for lining the pockets of the rich and monopolizing the power, but it sucks engorged elongated monkey member when it comes to forth generation warfare.  Centralized facilities which are so big they are militarily unprotected ( think about how easy it would be for local cadre all over the Midwest to simultaneously monkeywrench sabotage all the giant combines and other farming machines just before harvest and the effects of that ), such as pipelines or pumping facilities are very vulnerable.  The pipeline damage in the fighting in Iraq knocked down production in that country, what?  25% or something.  Think of that happening in Saudi Arabia.  If 10% overproduction slams the price of oil downwards, what would happen in a sudden ten percent shortage?  And most of that percentage is the oil most in demand, light sweet crude?  That should be enough food for thought.

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