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Tuesday, December 2, 2014

US of Pakistan


US of Pakistan

Pakistan is one of many places that blows monkey testicles, being very over crowded, having depleted a once lush garden of Eden, facing religious extremism, fluctuating between flood and drought, increased crime and increased brutality of the police, a government that doesn’t work very well and other assorted problems that will make the collapse rather interesting.  And the United States closely parallels them.  Karachi is the biggest city in Pakistan, its financial center and main port and I’m sure a few other things.  And it has some God-awful thing like twenty million people.  About like New York City and its closest satellites.  Nonsense, you scream, Tokyo has 35 million and they do just fine.  Aside from radiation poisoning, you would be right.  Except Japan can’t really feed its own population, and probably not even Tokyo itself.  In an energy decline scenario, big populations become big problems.  That UN projection which says we see 11 billion by 2050?  That is with the new decrease in births already factored in.  And we can’t really properly feed the 7 billion we have now ( and in a declining oil situation, transportation will suffer as well as soil inputs, so the distribution inequality will get worse, not better ).  Pakistan might have quadrupled their population since independence, but we’ve almost tripled ours since WWII.  Just because we used to feed the world back with one third the population doesn’t mean we aren’t already overcrowded ourselves.

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Both countries are seeing aquifers drying up, some years flooding ( one fifth of Pakistan was under water in the last big flood ) out of control, soil going from bountiful to useless and demanding more petroleum inputs to produce.  You think religious extremism is limited to TowelHead sects fighting over translating the Holy Word?  Undoubtable the US will fight alone racial lines sometime during the collapse, but I wouldn’t underestimate religion being used as an excuse for theft and assassination as it has been in the past.  Remember, humans always self-justify poor behavior.  Religion is perfect, since you just blame God.  I think the only reason we haven’t seen a relapse of 70’s crime is because the public is so much better compensated for staying at home in front of the TV and not causing troubles.  The electricity going out is going to cause 101 different problems, but one that usually isn’t covered is the lack of the public’s Soma ( Brave New World ) to keep them passive.  Crime will explode again, and when it does the understaffed cops will collect a lot of collateral damage trying to deal with it.  And you can’t expect the courts to do much more than get worse and worse even if they function.  My main point here is that we are so intent on congratulating ourselves  on how special and unique we are, we ignore it when we have the very same problems as Third World crapholes and fail to conclude our fate is the same as theirs ( you don’t think Pakistan won’t be invaded?  Even though they have nukes, it’s going to happen as they have important water issues with neighbors.  And if they can fall prey to invasion, even with nukes, what about us? ).  Just food for thought.

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7 comments:

  1. I think Pakistan is more likely to the invaders than the invaded. They have that high surplus population you mentioned AND are advanced enough to have nukes, AND have the 'religion of peace' putting their god in their corner urging them to fight. I don't know if they will go after India, China, Mongolia, Afghanistan or who. But they will come to blows with someone even if only internally, pretty soon too given the jihadists attempts to overthrow the government.

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  2. Japanese consume around 2,500 calories/day but with a food intake of around 2,800 (includes wastage), and produce just shy of 1000. There numbers look like our 1970s numbers since we are probably up around 2,700 now with a much more sedentary population.

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    1. Demographics favor Japan with rapidly aging, less than replacement level births. In the long term. They just have to get through the short term. The US short and long term is population explosion from illegal immigration. Ya gotta wonder how our drought is going to get along with that.

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  3. Never say never, but the Islamic states, democratic or theocratic, as opposed to the secular Arab/Persian ones (communist/fascist), have a relatively benign reputation with regards to invading other folks.

    What Pakistan really likes to do is sit behind its nuclear shield and mess around with other folks. A lot of this activity is connected with the government, if not necessarily done by government policy. Typical problem of defused power states like Iran, or pre-WW2 Japan: lots of low level provocations.

    The most likely (and not that likely) way I see them going the invasion route is if they get a military dictatorship. But they got their clocks cleaned the last time they went toe to toe with the Indians, and I think it is generally understood that the Indian nationalists would love to pay them back for the attacks on Mumbai. So the only real target would be a takeover of Afghanistan as a resource grab.

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    1. It would be interesting if Pakistan tried to move on Afghanistan given that three of the greatest militaries the world has ever known got their asses handed to them there.

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    2. Well, we did have partial success by using the proxy Northern Alliance. As the Paki and Afghan tribes on either side of the border are pretty united, that could be their "in".

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    3. The Russians could have and would have "permanently" taken care of the problem of an Afghanistan full of Afghans by killing them all and destroying every village capable of supporting a single family. The Hind is STILL a heck of an armored helicopter that you should duck & cover from (not shoot the little .223 at the windshield). Read Charlie Wilson's War (or watch the movie with all the pretty girls) to understand how the Soviets lost, when the CIA wanted them to win.

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