We all know the script for the coming collapse, should it stick with the Resource Depletion theme. The US stops being the only winner in the game and due to her economy and next years ( or the year after, tops, more than likely ) frack oil supply crash, plus the end of the petro-dollar ( hard to time, anywhere from in the next minute to years from now- sorry, the flakes of snow accumulating to form an avalanche are rarely accommodating in their behavior ), serious war breaks out. No, not the favorite of those lacking imagination, the WWII repeat. That conflict was over control of an abundant resource. The coming one will be conflict over the scarce remaining resources. In a resource depleted atmosphere, you can’t mobilize an economy to fight a Total War ( the last one we attempted was Vietnam and that plus our local Peak Oil killed our industrial economy. In Russia, their local peak plus Afghanistan killed their empire ). There will be NO repeats. I can’t guess how the major economies fight the last Oil War, but I think a safe bet is some kind of nuclear exchange. Add that radiation to the coming meltdown of 400 reactors after Grid Down and there is your species Bottleneck Event ( hat tip to McPherson on that worry ), potentially. But I shan’t digress on that subject. The point today is that the coming conflict, so far clandestine and monetary rather than a hot military outbreak, is really going to intensify. Because nobody is fighting for “their fair share”. They are fighting for the Whole Enchilada ( hmmm, enchiladas. Now I’m hungry ).
Today, we are all pretty satisfied with the status quo, and resources are roughly divided according to the winners of the game played over the last several decades. The US keeps its quarter of global oil production. China is allowed to be the worlds factory. Nobody pays much mind to Japan anymore, a zombie nation both from irradiation and an economy in non-stop depression ( their situation is better than when they first became the US Asian aircraft carrier, but not for much longer ). Everyone, even if they don’t like it, is used to their Fair Share. They are surviving on it and their elite are thriving on it ( those of us here in America are NOT going to join the elite, the 1%, and we are already living in a Third World Country despite the freshly painted stucco look. No need to look for a tropical country to expatriate to, New Orleans or Florida will do ). But when the conflict heats up over resources, suddenly the game board gets overturned and every player will be trying to steal everything for themselves. They won’t be sharing this time, as they do now, to minimize conflict. It is winner take all, musical chairs time. The fighting will be for survival, not profit. Expect the conflict to reflect that.
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