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Monday, September 22, 2014

big picture grain


BIG PICTURE GRAIN

California just keeps on with its problems in agriculture, from population increase to suburbanizing ag land to watering golf courses from shrinking snow pack to losing market share after NAFTA to Mexico to over pumping ( they are getting into the “never replaceable in our lifetimes“ depths ).  Problems continue apace with the countries main aquifer, from totally drying up in the south to diverting and polluting it in the north with oil and gas fracking.  Yet, even amongst supposed educated survivalists, the eighty year old myth of US agricultural dominance and abundance still reign.  Least you forget your history, mechanization, petroleum inputs and an abnormal weather pattern of global mild ( read, less severe ) climate was what made up The Green Revolution.  Genetically modified organisms are not part of that story but rather one of corporate greed and desperation.  We are now looking at the end of our mild weather ( which has gone on long enough to qualify as a trend ), petroleum supply decline and mechanization being a trap of diminishing returns rather than a force multiplier.  Here are a few sobering statistics for you.  1986 saw the phase out of the US land set aside ( you were paid to NOT farm ).  In 2001 the world carry over of grain stocks was 107 days.  By 2007 it had dropped to 74 days ( I don’t have the stats for later years, and I’m sure they are so scary I don’t want to know ).  By those two fun filled facts, we can conclude that we have lost both surplus land and surplus stocks of grain.

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But, as the commercials say, WAIT!  There is more.  Population growth is almost a quarter million people a day.  With its income growth, China now eats more meat than the US.  And, as I never tire of repeating, the ethanol program.  Population growth is pretty self-explanatory.  All those little bastards being born every stinking day means every day there is more and more pressure on the food available.  Most of that growth is in urban population.  They don’t grow a lot of food.  Even if China’s economy took a nose dive, the whole world is in an economic contraction.  Everyone else would dive alongside it.  In relative terms, China will grow as long as its energy supply grows.  That can be from African exploration, Russian purchases, South China Sea control, more coal use, whatever.  Income growth from energy growth ( the US is in an energy decline, albeit slowly.  Fracking is replacing imports, not increasing supply ) means increasingly better diets for them, less so for us.  Ethanol, sweet ethanol.  Who else would use ONE FRIGGIN THIRD- let me repeat that for you- One.  Friggin.  Third!- of their total grain supply and call it a great idea?  Our total grain supply.  One third.  Already the irrigation and soil infertility and rising cost of a shrinking supply of petroleum inputs problem isn’t enough?  You need to take a third of our grain to supply a mere 10% of gasoline?  Food is security, yet our fearless leaders only concern themselves with keeping the SUV’s running.  Pure genius.  If you aren’t scared by the long term trend, if you aren’t stockpiling the crap out of grain, I weep for you.

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13 comments:

  1. Its f-ups like the decline in grain stocks, etc., and lack of sudden massive population die off (like a release of the genetically engineered Ebola pox) that convinces me that there is no giant global illuminati or Zionist, etc conspiracy. Or, that if there is, there are MULTIPLE such all competing with each other.
    Basically, I think all our civilizations 'leaders' are just short sighted fools. The banks and big corporations are after profit- but short term profit. The politicians are after winning the next election. The news and entertainment media is after their seasonal ratings. No one in charge is looking past the next 8 years at most. Anyone who looks ahead much more than that (you know, for what their grandkids are going to be raised in) sees nothing but lots of challenges ahead, and few solutions being worked on.

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    1. You are most likely right, although that makes for boring prepper conversation. And I think 8 years is too long ahead. 2 years, max. Anything else, above the next single chess move, is beyond parasitic lawyers comprehension.

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    2. "Basically, I think all our civilizations "leaders" are just short sighted fools."
      Well said. My opinion exactly. Very succinctly put.
      YouTubing "reptilians" that control our society is much more fun.
      Imagining that stupidity and arrogance is wrecking everything is depressing...

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    3. I like the way that George Carlin said it, "You don't need a formal conspiracy when interests converge." The hundred most powerful people in the world don't need a backdoor meeting and a secret handshake to figure out how to maximize their wealth and power while screwing the rest of the world over. It comes naturally with just trying to stay on top. They can't save the plane from flying into the mountain, but they will make sure they have one of the few parachutes on board and jump out of the plane before most people know anything is wrong. Is that a conspiracy?

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    4. It's only a conspiracy insofar as they're all agin me.

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    5. aH!, but we have our own little plan- we are in the back rows quietly cutting up seat cushions and sowing our little fingers off, trying to make our own parachutes- Which is why keeping our eyes on what those basterds with the industrial made ones are up to is so important- when they jump we might only have moments to follow!

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  2. If the Kroger-Publix type stores posted large signs high up in the air out by the road with the daily (hourly) prices of bread, milk, ground beef and a couple other daily use items on it the way the gas stations display gas prices the herd members might start to think about rolling their enormous blobs off the couch and try to stand up on their hind legs for the first time in the despicable lives.

    But they won't.
    Not until the fridge runs dry but then it'll be too late.
    But then again, it's already too late.

    The burn-off will be glorious.

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    1. When gasoline hit $1.50, catastrophe was at hand. Now, at $3.50, the SUV's continue to barrel in from suburbia at top speed. High prices do not alarm the masses, since Big Oil is keeping a gazabillion barrels locked up in Colorado. Love the "burn-off"

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  3. Record yeild on corn and soybeans this year!!!!

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    Replies
    1. Great, but, the long term trend...

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    2. And wheat and rice yield are both down a little iirc, but demand? up, Up, UP!

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  4. Theirs always someone who wants to rule the whole planet.
    With modern transportation and communications the planet is smaller than ever.It might be more of a corporation like structure but theres still someone running the corp.

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    Replies
    1. Not one "corp.", a couple of dozen of varying power (from unimaginable to just super powerful). Each of which have a limited forward view and competitors breathing down their neck, so are only looking at best, the next couple of quarters/years bottom line. Which is why the world is so messed up- no one can play the long game without getting stabbed in the back in the short game.

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