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Friday, September 5, 2014

abnormality bias


ABNORMALITY BIAS

Normalcy bias is believing that everything will remain normal forever.  Abnormality bias ( check out this article I found when I looked up “abnormalacy bias”:

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2013/04/23/abnormalcy-bias/ ) is just my cute version, a bias belief that since everything is always screwed up but continues to somehow work, even at a lower level of efficiency, that this will always be the case.  It isn’t like we aren’t all guilty of this.  On a continuing basis I’m discounting most troubling developments.  Ferguson riots?  Yawn, wake me when the National Guard is mowing down violent mobs on the DC Mall.  Another three countries invaded or dissolving into anarchy, and that isn’t even counting African ones?  Nothing to see here, let me know when one of them gets nuked.  Another crop failure in a major wheat producing area?  Flour is still $1.60 a five pound bag- inform me when there might be shortages.  You see what I’m talking about, right?  We all do this as a self-defense mechanism because you can’t withstand the constant chemical dump that goes along with panicking over everything.  So, of course, even those of us who know better are just as bad as the sheeple grazing on the sawdust chips at the McDonald’s trough.  In fact, I’d wager we are far worse.  For every preparation we make, that additional level of self-satisfaction and minute subtraction of panic leads to even higher levels of unconcern.  The constant 24/7 barrage of money making bad news headlines just makes us not give much of a crap.  “Turn that drivel off.  I’ve got supplies and I’m large and in charge and will deal with all and sundry come the time with my Big And Bad Mighty And Righteous M4 Killing Machine.”
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Fukishimo nuke meltdown?  No big deal, I’ll die in combat way before I get ass cancer.  $17 trillion debt and half of the operating budget borrowed each year?  No worries, we all know the economic meltdown is coming soon enough.  Peak Oil?  Nah, fracking will save us.  Oops, couldn’t help myself on that one.  That is filed under normalcy bias.  From the number of folks still living in cities, nothing much is ever going to get them moving unless they are already on schedule to leave anyway ( gambling on the collapse is okay as long as your line in the sand doesn’t move and isn’t too far down the road.  Retiring in three years might be okay.  Staying another eight is pretty silly since all our financial institutions most likely will not be around by then ).  If the last five years hasn’t scared them into believing in the eminent collapse, I can’t believe anything will.  You can talk the talk, but when are you going to follow up?  If you are still making excuses, still conjuring up even fiercer dragons that must appear before you act, you won’t ever budge.  I admire those folks that moved in the 90’s when all was perfect with the world other than the child genocide Clinton and Reno were engaged in.  Everything was lowest in price and they had time aplenty to prep.  You?  You got Richard.  Wait even longer and you got even less.

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9 comments:

  1. The thing about abnormality bias is it turns in to normalcy bias with enough time.
    The fact that our local police have been turned into a militarized occupation force in even the smallest towns and where that hasn't happened the federal agencies are setup with their own 'swat' teams -even the department of education and the EPA... This is the new normal. Instead of rolling it back people are asking for a federal Czar to 'oversee' the cops behaviors.... As though this situation is normal and merely needs to be better guided!
    And of course continuous striving toward an idealized situation just wears you out - no matter what realm we are talking about.
    I will always be at least a little bit of a lard ass- Instead of striving to be Mr Universe I simply strive to get the best amount of health I can on a limited time and money budget- once the budget it up, oh, well.
    I will never have a hundred acres of forest and farm and hilltop bunker stocked with a generations worth of freeze dried ice cream and bon-bons. Oh, well, on the budget I have I've gotten rolling arid prairie land to build an earth bermed soddie on, with my own two hands (cant afford more).
    Those are the points at which I must quit striving for more perfect or even 'normal'. BUT when the situation looks like it is prepared to change is when as a prepper you must analyze how it can effect you and how you can best adjust. For example when the US sends air force interdiction into the Ukraine you need to be prepared for Russian attacks on US air bases. When the US sends troops in to support the Ukrainian ground forces- then you need to be ready for a formal war to be declared - and all that implies (you or your husband/son might get drafted- make certain he has flat feet or philosophical objection to violence listed).

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  2. Can't we all just get along???


    Rodney K.

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  3. I get ya man, It's like "Someone else got shot in the ghetto? No big deal, I'm still in the Suburbs nothing to worry about. Oh, Someone got carjacked at a mall? *Enter excuse as to why that might have happened*" But, whatever it is we never think, SH!T That could of been me! Even when we do it only affects for at most a week, then life is peachy once again with sunshine and breeezy 75degrees. We just push it out of our heads so we don't freak out in an overload of Paranoia. (That one song comes to mind I think another minion quoted it once.) Good article and great hair.
    OH! And that chart is freaking nuts! Like we can talk numbers all day long, but once you put together all the data is wen I think people really open their eyes.
    -Sumdude

    PS: I might email you for some advice.

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  4. The fracking deal is real and will last for as long as electricity is available. The non-fracked oil play in Kansas peaked in the thirties and they're still pumping economic volumes of oil. Monterey shale in California is virtually untouched and is three times as big as the North Dakota play, which will go to 2 million barrels a day in a few years. Right now the estimate for the ND play is 19 billion barrels available (private industry estimate, not government). That is 26 years of production.
    I believe an economic collapse will be the end of fracking as it will no longer be economical to extract the oil. They need around 70$ per barrel.

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    1. We aren't getting 2mil a day fake oil from Canada, and you think one of our frac fields will outdo them? Homey don't think so. Private industry estimates are for the suckers to invest.

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    2. Population curve?- currently still trending UP.
      Demand per capita for energy? - currently still trending UP.
      Current new oil field discoveries? - currently still trending DOWN.
      Energy return on energy invested in newly tapped oil fields? - currently still trending DOWN.

      It doesn't matter if oil goes to $1000/barrel, if it takes 10 barrels of oil to get out 11 barrels you are going to be reluctant to try to get those eleven barrels, and god help you if you are wrong and it takes 11 barrels to get out 10, because your company will go belly up faster than you can sign the pink slips.
      The energy cost of getting the oil out of the bakken shale is pretty high, and that doesn't even count in the lack of an infrastructure to get that oil refined and to market. I live next door to it, and they would be here too but the cost to get it out and to market (in energy) is just a little to high to be worth it- that isn't $ dependent, it is EROEI, EVEN if we had 100 times the oil ever tapped just waiting in a reservoir- UNLESS it cost less energy to get it out than we get out we wont be tapping it.

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    3. I'm hoping the plans to frack in Elko County meet the same criteria.

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    4. If they didn't they would already be there. Seriously fracking has had some slight tech improvement but the energy cost is still high (which is why it takes $100/barrel oil prices to make it financially sensible - even only getting 5 barrels for every 3 spent still gets you some profit on volume) But the price or oil would have to be closer to $200 a barrel to make it worth while here. And other places would be similar or worse- if it takes 5 barrels of energy to pull out 3 barrels it is NEVER going to happen, and most estimates for the EROEI neglect the infrastructure costs (roads and pipelines need to be built, housing put up, water found and delivered, etc, etc, etc...) There is a lot of energy cost to infrastructure. Elko might be ahead of where I am just because of the miners and infrastructure.

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    5. The area they are talking about is north of Wells. I'm sure they've already researched how to use up and destroy all infrastructure and gave that info to the bean counters. Millions just on the mineral rights- but I don't know if that is a gamble or an investment.

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