Sunday, August 25, 2019

services denial


SERVICES DENIAL
In a conflict, you in essence line up against each other and shoot away. Yes, I'm aware of the nuances and I did indeed say “in essence”. I'm aware this is how second generation warriors fight and I know this is the exact way you DON'T fight if you are an insurgent. Don't pick nits. The point is, armed conflict in its many manifestations. But fighting? Fighting is for testosterone filled idiots. Not to disparage half of mankind, because as guys we love to fight even when we know it is a losing battle. Fighting is natural and good.
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But if you look at it Big Picture, fighting is a given and takes little talent ( experience helps much more. Training just helps the odds of surviving to get experience, but can be a placebo also ). Logistics is far more important, but sadly, is a really scarce talent. If you look at say, Gustavus Adolphus, that boy knew logistics. He made social and economic changes at home to change with the new military tactics and strategy of the day. The other national leaders who succeeded were simply smart enough to follow his lead.
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Sherman fought his war against the enemies logistics, not the Southern army ( as an anti-Federal I don't care for the mans actions, but looking at it from a military historians viewpoint, the man was a genius. I'm not sure the extent of Grant's help, but thankfully the book by BH Liddell Hart finally came down to a reasonable price, which I ordered, and I'll soon glory in the details ). It doesn't matter how fierce your opponent is, without ammunition and food, he soon becomes a whimpering pussy. The US war machine in World War Two was a hideously incompetent organization, barely better than the Soviets in practicing human wave assaults.
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But they did do a few things rather well. One was the Island Hopping which focused on denying the Japanese logistics support ( and focusing on Merchant Marine shipping to the same end. Sadly, probably our Navy's last great moment besides turning the fleet to nuclear power-although even that had knock-on effects of more dangerous civilian power and the wastefulness of the non-replenishable resource. And yes, Oppie Optimists, there are alternate systems, but we invested in the least efficient and are stuck with it ).
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[ Let us take a pause here to study that closely. We ARE stuck with legacy systems. It doesn't matter how poor the idea is now, we don't have the economic or resource muscle needed to replace what is already here. It doesn't matter how inefficient our suburbs are now, we cannot replace them with another arrangement. So we keep pouring more oil into transportation to sustain that housing stock. After THAT, which is already obvious, we simply delete the jobs the suburbanites had, so there is less need for transportation. The same is true with nuclear energy. We built up an entire industry which we cannot afford to replace ]
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[ The Soviet Union employed the same inefficient nuclear power generating systems. After their collapse, the entire system had to be replaced with one that used less resources. For instance, the new military could not afford to be heavy tank centered. You see now a lot of units employing their version of insurgents “technicals”. As far as nuclear power, they went from the old system that sucked up fuel to one that recycled it and/or ran spent fuels. The development was paid for by resource savings ]
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[ The Soviet Union collapsed with a huge energy sector intact. The US system has been under a system of energy depletion just shy of fifty years. Fracking Fuel is low net energy fuel and does NOT constitute an energy increase. The Russians had energy to invest to save energy. We did not, and do not, and will not. Hence, we are stuck with whatever system we already had. “Would-a, Should-a, Could-a” is mental masturbation at this point. It is just another lame attempt to keep hubris alive, to think we can change that which we are stuck with ]
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In the coming Balkanization of 'Murica, logistics are going to be paramount. The normally AR centered crowd of Red Freedom Fighters do acknowledge this. Obviously we have a huge new generation of combat vets, and they seem to be rather well versed in logistics ( one would be, with the amount of crap moved around in Afghanistan ). Unfortunately, it is combat logistics of a superficial nature ( but, thanking one's deity for small favors, at least it is something ). It is along the lines of “Red America BUILDS everything, and the Blue Belies are stuck in urban zones we surround and they need OUR supplies”.
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Of course, there is a LOT wrong with this view. Whatever insurgents can destroy, so too can Federals deny ( which is at the heart of this article ). And like all true SHALLOW logistical studies, infrastructure is assumed rather than questioned. The biggest factor ignored, by both sides, is energy. Just like the population in general, energy is assumed to be a national birthright, rather than the colonial treasure that it is. This will trip up both sides. The side that recognizes and works with this will emerge victorious.
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Peak Oil isn't JUST the cause of the collapse, ignoring it is the cause of your demise. If you are involved in the insurgency on either side, it is the key to victory. Now, it would be easy to declare the Reds the winner, already, because the Blues entire structure was enabled and predicated on controlling the energy flow at the beginning of the Oil Age, which is faltering. But like the Russians, you also need energy to begin with to replace your energy infrastructure. So the conflict is anything but a sure thing for either side. It could come down to who screws up the least ( one wonders how true that is for most conflicts ).
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Don't think this is just going to be a treatise on the dangers of Peak Oil. I'm focused more on how the system is going to be used by both sides against the other, using the collapsing energy starved infrastructure already in trouble. For instance, taking the electric grid in Northern California. These past fires were caused by the break down in maintenance. As a result, there will now be preemptive grid shut downs. One should see the writing on the wall here. This is corporate warfare, a denial of services in retaliation of damage lawsuits. And that is just a small start. I'll continue tomorrow.
( addendum-Hart writes if a very flowery but stilted manner.  It was all I could do to get through the first hundred pages-and its not a short book.  Just beware the style of delivery if you buy this book )
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click HERE )
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note: one of my favorite scenes in the movie "Platoon", Bunny is explaining to his buddy ( "like I told the padre..." ) why he enjoys being in the war.  To me this encapsulates the ideal of the proper attitude one should have as a warrior.  Short but sweet, at one hour thirty-five minutes into the film.  Free on Netflix right now.
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16 comments:

  1. Following. This theme is under estimated in the red - blue dodge ball team's strategy sessions.

    The cities, political power systems, and supporting castes of suburbans do hold sway and power projections into near all facets of rural, or outliers areas. There is just as much dependance on gov't. Gibs, services, shipping, infrastructure support from the larger entities, all comms and digital sourcing, etc. Provided to, and 'drank up' by everyone in the "modern" rural or red-deplorable enclaves.

    There is going to be deals and bargains out of necessity for basic functioning. (Keep the water and power on to the cities we'll pay snap cards and allow train and road transports through, as both sides kinda like having all that stuff we have going down now in gravy days. The better would be autonomous states with at least guarded trading and interactions. It is done now routinely with commie/dictator states anyway.

    Your unicorn cavalry strike forces may be benefited by an emmissary negoitator type along instead of just a bunch of beard boy operators only knowing ancient dogma scripts that just won't translate well into today's new way of things. Just saying.

    Stay frosty.

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  2. Yeah, kind of like Nevada as an example. The "sagebrush rebellion" rural counties as a culture, that hold selves all insular and tribalist still desperately need those federal and state disbursement payments (pensions, disability,snap, housing, medicaid-care etc) as well as operational funds under the current system structures. Mining and ranching as area major activities alone, is not closed loop industries that can self sustain. There is a lot of tourist and traveler dollars that fund many aspects of local economies whom would starve out without the flow continuing. Or jit modern economy would collapse, with that die off thingy too, in a cut off, just as outlined in that book: One Second After.

    Stay Frostier.

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    1. Nevada is just as exposed to the outside resupply problem it had 150 years ago. Just worse off, as then folks could function after a grubstake. And, we are both seeing mine depletion and tourists staying closer to home ( after the death of cheap airfares and scrappy start up airlines )

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    2. I've lived in rural Southwest high desert, and EVERYONE's on welfare. No fedgov and you'll have massive, massive die-off in those areas. The only exceptions I see are the real old-time hard-asses by which I mean the Hopi and Navajo hard cases; there are Navajo grandmothers who will haul their water in buckets from the river rather than use the white man's faucet, no shit. When the white man's faucet shuts off, they won't panic and die.

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  3. Yes, back to peeing in your punch bowl..

    "The Soviet Union collapsed with a huge energy sector intact".

    No,no and hell No! Oil industry in USSR COLLAPSED post 1991. Oil production in Russia hit broke ass rock bottom in '94-'95. The 1989 production levels were not reached again until 2004. Fifteen years years of collapse & stagnation.
    Out of parts & supplies, out of direction and soon out of business

    Soviet oil production/exports began decreasing in late '80s. At an annual economic gathering of SovBloc nations the Russians announced they were shifting from a policy of supplying ComBloc w/oil in return for mfg'd goods/foodstuffs to a policy of selling oil to them for Western currency (US$ & Deutschmarks).
    Change in policy was due to fact Sov's oilfields (& other areas of economy) after years of poor management now needed technology from US and Europe and needed hard currency with which to buy it. America wasn't interested in trading oil technology for plum brandy, Georgian wine or pickled beets.
    This announcement while little noticed in the West, outside of academic journals, began the collapse of Warsaw Pact and USSR. The captive nations of E. Europe had to scramble for hard currency in order to buy Sov oil.
    All kinds of economic, social and political dislocations ricocheted through those nations.
    Remember "Solidarity" & Lech Walesa in Gdansk shipyards?

    Anyway take a peek at this and scroll to graph at very bottom that shows Russian oil production by year. The body of the text is very insightful too. Oil shortfall played significant role in German unification.....East Germany was broke and Soviets couldn't muster the resources to keep Germans or any of the other nations reined in.

    I imagine Sov Army Group North was restricted to garrison simply to avoid the embarrassment of media flashing photos of a tank column stranded on side of road. Out of fuel.... and soon out of Germany

    http://crudeoilpeak.info/russia%E2%80%99s-oil-peak-and-the-german-reunification

    I had written up a similar post 10 days ago or so....don't know what happened to it.

    Yep, logistics...pesky little matter.

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    1. I'm not sure I'd agree with you that a nation needs up to the minute high tech to produce oil. Even your fav fracking is fifty plus years tech. In essence. You can tweak anything to add performance, but old tech will still work. I can still get a job done with my old Mac computer, had I kept it, it would have just been more difficult. I also am careful with any official history put out by the Color Revolution folks on targets. We did hit Peak first, and handled it just as poorly as the Soviets, but we got lucky with Saudi Arabia. And the crash coming up, without the Saudi or fracking help, will be much, much worse than how the Russians handled their crash. Yes, I DO know, because we won't shed colonies or shrink down to a united nation as they did. Also, if figures were Caspian and similar, long played out areas, with Siberia similar to our using the Gulf Of Mexico and Alaska, they are in much better shape for the future. I'm not saying there wasn't an implosion, just that capacity far exceeded ours and even a brutalized surviving industry could extract much more energy. I smell techno hubris on your part. High tech is NOT a savior, it is a feature of resource decline.

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    2. "I smell techno hubris on your part."

      Well call me stinky....better yet, Mr. Stinky!

      I was going to attach a French article about Sov O&G production. Given the French predilection for marching to their own drummer I thought you might give it credence...alas, no. You even dismissed above German article.

      I'm getting the feeling that no matter what the source info (re: O&G facts) you will just ignore. 😟

      As Freud said..."sometimes a cigar is just a cigar". Same with verifiable facts...they're just facts.

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    3. "Lies, damn lies, and statistics"

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  4. "As far as nuclear power, they went from the old system that sucked up fuel to one that recycled it and/or ran spent fuels."

    Are you referring to LFTR? There's a very clean argument we should be running that proven tech right here right now. There's an actual working unit created in the fifties, I believe. If I remember right, it was scrapped for our current nuke tech for our nuke armament build up after WWII.

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    1. Memories a bit off but I believe the civilians just used military tech. I want to say they pilfered personnel from the military also, but I might be off on that as well. There were profit motives built in there somewhere of course.

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    2. Thorium is nice, but you can't make bombs with it.

      If we could convert to thorium, it's a good start since there is more energy in the thorium in a ton of coal than you get from burning the ton of coal.

      There are ways, but they require will. And none of them provide the net energy of early oil.

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    3. I guess those 70k bombs needed a lot of material. It would be interesting seeing a study done on our complete manufactured arsenal, what was obsoleted, how we are maintaining what we have now, etc. Something tells me our nuke arsenal is shrinking drastically and one day that defensive line will be gone. Alas, no worries. Empire will be gone long before.

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    4. Maybe that's a plus. Fewer nukes that will work. Makes living in Nevada easier, right?

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    5. Okay, I read later in the day, a total of 125,000 nukes made by both sides during the Cold War. Down to 17k now. I mean, yes, it's good news for the species. Not so great news for a sputtering superpower which bullies everyone and mouths off too much, with a PC Army.

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