Tuesday, August 20, 2019

last chance fire sale


LAST CHANCE FIRE SALE
Do you know what an RCH is? It stands for Red Crotch Hair. It is one of the smallest units of visible measurement. When someone says, “missed it by THAAAAT much”, as their two fingers are smashed together ( “that” much being the distance between the two fingers ), they are using an RCH as the unit of measurement. Whether they know it or not. It is a kissing cousin of the largest measurement unit of a fresh water fish ( “it was THIIIIS big!”, as ones arms are stretched out at their widest ).
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Well, I hate to be the one to break it to you, but we are exactly one RCH away from a huge economic crash. You know I'm right. We all feel not just a “disturbance” in the Force, we can feel it actually imploding. None of us, not even the $300 a year newsletter guys, know the exact timing. But “any day now” is as obvious as the swinging corpse of Epstein was a couple of weeks ago. And so, I feel no need to belabor that point further. Instead, let us focus on your last chance to participate in the last great fire sale of the Oil Age and Imperial America.
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You all know inflation won't be kept in check for much longer. Only the PetroDollar allowed that, and that favored currency is as requested as gonorrhea in an orgy anymore. But here is something else. Almost everyone had been busy trying to win the race to the bottom, devaluing their own currency to push exports in a last ditch effort to keep their economies afloat ( along with decreasing quality on said products ). As a result, the US Dollar had a slight advantage for a time, the illusion of strength given by the reality of others weakness.
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The global economy has been in trouble for some years now, not just the US with its imploding retail sector ( which is NOT about Amazon, you simple humps ) and its true unemployment rate of 30% ( compare the labor participation rate with those Not In The Labor Market ). Everyone is hurting. The US bought a smidge of time with its oil currency and the rest of the fiat units devalued quicker. That cannot go on indefinitely. Nor can these extra super low consumer prices.
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I imagine because of economies of scale that folks are making a profit on $300 AR kits. This is how the Industrial Age economy is supposed to work. Crap was mass produced and sold cheaper all the time ( Colonel Colt introduced the cost savings per unit for larger orders, right about the time we found oil. It was off to the races after that ). And I imagine the reason it still works with the plastic poodle shooter industry is that a big corporation simply cannot consolidate the industry ( with the resulting jacked up prices going into the bankers pockets ).
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But they are operating in a lower cost parts supply environment because of the global overproduction ( mainly from China ) and the global slowdown economically ( both leading to desperation prices ). I don't mean AR parts come from China ( AR's being one of the few American industries left ), but that plastic and aluminum and labor aren't going to see low prices indefinitely. The cost of components will rise, even if they remain low in comparison to most everything else. Now, how long do you expect low shipping prices to stay in effect?
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Don't you think Amazon subsidizes its shipping costs? The Post Office with its packages? How long does UPS stay in business with its Union labor? FedEx with its airline costs? How long does lower cost Southern wages stay when apartments rent for $2k a month? When medical insurance isn't much less that that? As unemployment continues with mass layoffs, how many customers does a company keep, regardless of how low the prices are? Prices continue to rise, likewise, every time a new bunch of companies go out of business.
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No one is pricing more than they have to, competition for dwindling customers is too fierce, but all their costs are increasing and less competitors simple mean that they don't have to lose as much money each time they make a sale because the competition shrinks. Why is gasoline increasing at a time less and less people are driving ( as well as more people driving less )? Because the frackers are starting to go out of business. Less desperate fire sales means those left can lose less. I believe we are seeing the same dynamic in the ethanol sector. Less competition to lose money.
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Not all products are in industries with equal dynamics. The AR's obviously started out from a huge base of Mom & Pop's when the Clinton Ban sunsetted. Every time the price fell, from all the competition, more units were sold keeping the profits. The scaling back of the industry will take some time. The silver bullion industry suffered and is suffering from central bank derivatives manipulation. If you bought a solar panel recently, thank your banker for the lower cost. As I told you WAY before the current rally, if you bought bullion when you could it was the cheapest price it was ever going to be.
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That industry has far too skewed pricing mechanisms to operate normally. But one thing that WILL remain constant, regardless of bankers or buyers, is that the price will continue to increase due to the global supply of ore shrinking. That you can take to the bank. Just like the eventual gun control jacking up the cost of your AR probably sooner rather than later ( Red Flagging is a form of prohibition ). What about that junk land? I keep telling you the supply is fixed and dirt cheap prices won't last. All these items and more, need to be procured soonest.
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As soon as the economic collapse begins in earnest ( so far merely being a storm on the horizon warning ), all your stockpiling is over and done. The trend is rising prices and lowering income. You cannot change that no matter what. YOU, yes you, will be bum rushed and Hobo Raped by the powers that be, as absolutely zero people escape the asset stripping of an imploding system. Soon you won't even have the option of selling YOUR assets to buy prepping supplies, as everyone loses their jobs tries to themselves liquidate. You know about getting hay with the sun, don't you?
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click HERE )
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20 comments:

  1. Good work Jim. Just some parallel thoughts to submit. Some times an astute and A-game Minionite can purloin some fire sale aquisitions if opportunity presents. Small businesses, swap meet sellers, private party, etc that have self thinking, non corporate leeway, may be acceptable to that negotiating game and get chipped way the hell down on the supposed price or street value of "anything and everything". Hell, I've done it with a clear conscience. The pressure from other directions on them personally for that cash right now need in an implosion i.e. groceries, kid costs, car repair, businesses that have to meet overhead costs emergency quick like etc. Will provide the environmental conditions for you, the Minion to step into, Yeah! This spaz out on their end will allow that strike force Minion to "deal rape" to their advantage on transactions. Time honored tradition, be ready and able to roll with it. Some self study on piracy, black markets, graft and corruption, smuggling, will be in order for the new normal. And oh yeah,

    Stay Frosty.

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    1. As much as I hate to admit it, yeah, it would be nice to be the pitcher rather than catcher on the financial sodomy team.

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  2. Your red pubic hair measurement reminded me of the definition of a smaller amount. You know when you are wiping yourself after a number 2 and a finger punches through the paper so you get a small amount of brown on your finger. You wipe it off really well so you can't see any brown but you can still smell it, that equals.0001 inch!

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  3. You're reading my mind with this post. None of its getting any cheaper. The miricle that we will look longingly back on is the sheer availability of stuff right now.

    Looking foward to your posts if you end up doing some field missions and camping out.

    Also, are you able to see details of Amazon purchases readers make through your links. I'm not buying used sex toys or anything, just wondering. It would be interesting.

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    1. Every once in awhile I do check to see what got ordered through commissions ( of course, you can't know who ordered ) and while there is a few prepper related items it mostly seems to just be daily living items. Which I'm thankful for-my pay would be much diminished otherwise.

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  4. They just can't stop themselves. This is referenced to all the proles who even in the face of a collapse, like the band on the Titanic, will continue to shop, or go there and pretend to like mall zombies in the dawn of the dead. Once 330 million +/- are unleashed under privation threat or no more happy consumer long time sessions, will all desire to go shop and get the last morsels, watch out, avoid crowds. No?

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    1. The culture of shopping has been strong, all my lifetime. It is hard to break. Worse than kicking cigs or cocaine, alcohol or adrenaline.

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    2. Yes indeed , most are trained to consume. The push has been to specialize not to generalize your skillsets.
      We are a culture of eaters now not one of makers.

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    3. Monkey's are easily trained, and make much noise when riled.

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  5. Why is the Amazon link to a fake silver dollar?

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    1. Because I didn't read further down in the description. Apologies. I'll change it-thank you.

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    2. Still wonder how that's not counterfeiting.

      Yeah, there's that smell in the air . . . the end of fall, when the harvest comes in, and the nights grow longer.

      And the drums start beating . . . and it's time for the sacrifice. Wonder what's on the menu?

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    3. Baby on the menu? The other, other, other white meat.

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    4. Austin Powers never gets old, unlike us.

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    5. Okay, I just wrote a joke so evil if you don't spit out coffee tomorrow I owe you a 5 gallon pail of wheat.

      (I know this is old enough that just you and I are on.)

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    6. I look forward to losing out on that bucket :)

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  6. I read something by that guy with great hair that empty AR's will be out there, needing ammo and magazines to run. The real shortage is any gap between 10000 rounds x number of AR's you own or have control of is the shortage to consider. Standard 55 or 62 grain fmj has never been cheaper by the case, esp. quality imports due to way-too-strong US Dollar. Ammoseek.com

    Pdxr13

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