YOYOF 3

YOYOF 3

I’m getting to your tribe being unreliable as a rescue vehicle, but I did want to quickly cover our food situation, so that we can eliminate “global bread basket ‘Murica” from that same Rescue Me wish list.  150 years ago ( a bit longer, it was 1856 ), to continue the already falling grain yields ( WITH expansion ), the federal government authorized citizens to claim ocean guano islands for the US.  A few years later, the War Of Northern Invasion And Genocide was conducted in no small part because of Confederate soil erosion and the need for expansion.  It was not the only reason, but it was a big one.

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I would stipulate that the causes of the fall of Rome were lesser in number than the reasons we fought the Civil War.  There was conflict from the South losing political power and their unease over paying far more taxes ( where did I hear “taxation without representation” before? ).  There was the megatrend of industrialization supplanting agriculture.  Lincoln was financed by Yankee industrialists.  But at core was the need to replace denuded land.  Slavery was worse than a machine driven system, demanding excess sales to stay profitable to recoup investments.

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The South saw extreme soil overuse, and land was quickly stripped of its nutrients.  The land was used and abandoned, in the sense that the bigger operations needed to keep moving west to better land and the farmland left behind was operated by lower and lower economic classes of freemen.  The slave agriculture system moved west to dry land, and then moved north following the rain patterns.  Where it met opposition, by the non-slavers.  They had run out of unexploited land.  The South was doomed BEFORE the War, but no economic exploitation system goes quietly into the good night.

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America had seen vast agricultural empires by the Indians prior to the smallpox epidemics which wiped out 90%+ of the population.  After that, the soil “rested” and was seen as wilderness by the time the Celts started moving inland.  Unrestricted immigration saw farmland continually “rediscovered” and overused.  Why?  Because poor people were immigrating and they farmed what they could for immediate survival, over-used land or not.  Next slavery took its toll on the land.  The northern farmers had to pay for the new industrialized equipment and over used the land.  Everywhere and everywhen, no sustainable farming was widely used.

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The Dust Bowl?  A big part of the problem was that the poor wanted immediate profits from the WWI commodities boom.  As all their ancestors had, they didn’t plan on long term use and conservation but immediate yield and profit ( some of this might have been influenced by the time limits on land claim validation ).  By then, there was no other area for the poor to farm but the undesirable dry areas between the 100^th meridian and the Rockies.  That was the end of affordable land for immigrants.  The Great Depression ceded all of it to banks and big business.

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We have had soil issues in this country for centuries.  Always, a very resource intensive solution was found.  By now, we literally must occupy oil regions to keep the soil fed.  Well, as I hope you all realize by now, oil is THE apex of energy compactness ( I don’t consider nuclear, as the fuel availability is in question.  Plus, it is oil reliant for its infrastructure ).  And we can only go down in energy solutions from here.  Yes, I understand we COULD transition to far more organic methods, with superior yields.  I simply doubt that we will.

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In case you missed the concert in the 80’s, the family farm is pretty much dead.  As in all things investment heavy, the big boys have monopolized the industry.  I don’t completely discount, but have doubts, that they will take land out of circulation to transition to more efficient less petroleum input based methods.  They could.  If incentives were present, miracles could happen.  My only concern is they wait too long and don’t have the luxury, needing every spare nickel in profit to survive an economic contraction.  I’ll do more research, but it rarely hurts to assume the worst.

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If we assume a soil fertility crises with a petroleum input contraction, we are in a situation akin to all other empires folding from lack of sufficient food.  Overpopulation leading to food scarcity.  Like our good buddy Malthus was trying to tell us before he was drowned out in a chorus of Growth Uber Alles fanatics.  You never go to your barber and ask him if you need a haircut, and you never ask some douche canoe on the payroll of the growth paradigm how to live sustainably.  We already rolled over to the right side of the oil bell curve.

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Why does this mean that you cannot depend on tribal organization to save you when your supplies run out?  Simple.  Like all organizations, you need a surplus to sustain them.  Let us suppose that you have a group-yourself and two buddies.  That is it.  A bare minimum for a group.  Every one of you has a wife.  Each couple has only one child.  That is nine people, and assumes no other family is going to show up.  Assuming you desire combat effectiveness, you need more food.  1500 calories is ONLY system sustainability, NOT operational fuel.

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At 1500 calories a day, your body will not cannibalize itself and there is no mental degradation ( it is not recommended you fall below this ).  But you can do pretty much nothing, or your body needs more calories.  You really need double the minimum for a nice force multiplier over adversaries.  You need that a LOT more than you need radios, FLIR scopes or motor vehicles.  Just saying.  Got four tons of wheat?  Because that is the minimum you need, two years of rations.  At a minimum assuming first year crop failures.  Realistically, I’d double that.

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Right now, assuming ZERO wheat failures from the Midwest floods, wheat is twenty cents a pound.  Forty cents a day is dirt cheap apocalypse food.  It is, literally, an Oil Age miracle.  It is so cheap by historical standards it is inconceivable.  If you don’t have a minimum of a IBC tote full of wheat ( 330 gallons of wheat is 66 buckets worth, just over a ton-assuming a $200 tote, that is barely over $400.  Five years short rations ), you aren’t serious about survival.  The problem comes when there are any dependents.  And they need multiple years of food.

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A tribe is made up of a LOT of dependents.  If anyone in your group cannot pull their full weight in food and ammo, they become a dependent, so odds are some of your fighters fall into this category.  That old saying, “if you want anything done right you have to do it yourself”?  That is literally true, as you won’t get other heads of households to agree on the minimum standards of preparation.  If you want the group to survive, you’ll need to provide the shortfall.  Because I guarantee their needs will meet their means.

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People do not prep for what they need.  They prep based on what they can afford, then justify that amount.  They lie to themselves.  “A year is WAY more food than I need.  I’m ALREADY being extra cautious”.  From your mouth to God’s ears, dumbass.  A minimum of seven years of short rations is a START.  Why?  Because you’ll need a double ration the first two years.  The first crop WILL be a total failure.  We are working with almost universally denuded soil, remember?  Plus, few folks realize a garden is JUST nutrients.  It is almost never calories.  Even with a good crop, it still isn’t enough calories.

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I still believe a die-off will only last about a month ( no room to argue that here ), but you NEVER bet your life on your assumptions no matter how rational they appear.  ALWAYS worst case scenario.  Always.  Assume there is combat far longer than you thought.  So, more food, more ammo.  After that two years, then you still have a three year short ration for raider caches and future crop failures.  And this is a MINIMUM, people.  Seriously.  Planting primitively, odds are good you never see another crop surplus that won’t be balanced by subsequent failures.

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This might be your only opportunity to stockpile condensed long shelf life calories.  Right now, your food preps are hard enough.  With a family, they become three times as hard.  With a minimal tribe, up to NINE times as difficult.  And that assumes you only, ONLY!, take two years to become self-sufficient in food.  You think that is easy?  How about when people are shooting at you to control that farmland?  How do you replace a fallen fighter?  Usually, by already having one on standby.  Who needs to be fed, as do HIS dependents. 

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Now that nine times as difficult figure keeps getting added to.  Do you see the problem with feeding this many people?  BEFORE you start getting crops in?  DURING crop failures?  Are you seeing the issue yet?  Four tons of wheat becomes overly optimistic as a minimum.  You might get up to double digits before you realize it.  Welcome to the REAL logistics of tribe.  Sucks, don’t it?

( .Y. )

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