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Friday, May 10, 2019

YOYOF 3


YOYOF 3
I’m getting to your tribe being unreliable as a rescue vehicle, but I did want to quickly cover our food situation, so that we can eliminate “global bread basket ‘Murica” from that same Rescue Me wish list.  150 years ago ( a bit longer, it was 1856 ), to continue the already falling grain yields ( WITH expansion ), the federal government authorized citizens to claim ocean guano islands for the US.  A few years later, the War Of Northern Invasion And Genocide was conducted in no small part because of Confederate soil erosion and the need for expansion.  It was not the only reason, but it was a big one.
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I would stipulate that the causes of the fall of Rome were lesser in number than the reasons we fought the Civil War.  There was conflict from the South losing political power and their unease over paying far more taxes ( where did I hear “taxation without representation” before? ).  There was the megatrend of industrialization supplanting agriculture.  Lincoln was financed by Yankee industrialists.  But at core was the need to replace denuded land.  Slavery was worse than a machine driven system, demanding excess sales to stay profitable to recoup investments.
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The South saw extreme soil overuse, and land was quickly stripped of its nutrients.  The land was used and abandoned, in the sense that the bigger operations needed to keep moving west to better land and the farmland left behind was operated by lower and lower economic classes of freemen.  The slave agriculture system moved west to dry land, and then moved north following the rain patterns.  Where it met opposition, by the non-slavers.  They had run out of unexploited land.  The South was doomed BEFORE the War, but no economic exploitation system goes quietly into the good night.
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America had seen vast agricultural empires by the Indians prior to the smallpox epidemics which wiped out 90%+ of the population.  After that, the soil “rested” and was seen as wilderness by the time the Celts started moving inland.  Unrestricted immigration saw farmland continually “rediscovered” and overused.  Why?  Because poor people were immigrating and they farmed what they could for immediate survival, over-used land or not.  Next slavery took its toll on the land.  The northern farmers had to pay for the new industrialized equipment and over used the land.  Everywhere and everywhen, no sustainable farming was widely used.
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The Dust Bowl?  A big part of the problem was that the poor wanted immediate profits from the WWI commodities boom.  As all their ancestors had, they didn’t plan on long term use and conservation but immediate yield and profit ( some of this might have been influenced by the time limits on land claim validation ).  By then, there was no other area for the poor to farm but the undesirable dry areas between the 100th meridian and the Rockies.  That was the end of affordable land for immigrants.  The Great Depression ceded all of it to banks and big business.
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We have had soil issues in this country for centuries.  Always, a very resource intensive solution was found.  By now, we literally must occupy oil regions to keep the soil fed.  Well, as I hope you all realize by now, oil is THE apex of energy compactness ( I don’t consider nuclear, as the fuel availability is in question.  Plus, it is oil reliant for its infrastructure ).  And we can only go down in energy solutions from here.  Yes, I understand we COULD transition to far more organic methods, with superior yields.  I simply doubt that we will.
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In case you missed the concert in the 80’s, the family farm is pretty much dead.  As in all things investment heavy, the big boys have monopolized the industry.  I don’t completely discount, but have doubts, that they will take land out of circulation to transition to more efficient less petroleum input based methods.  They could.  If incentives were present, miracles could happen.  My only concern is they wait too long and don’t have the luxury, needing every spare nickel in profit to survive an economic contraction.  I’ll do more research, but it rarely hurts to assume the worst.
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If we assume a soil fertility crises with a petroleum input contraction, we are in a situation akin to all other empires folding from lack of sufficient food.  Overpopulation leading to food scarcity.  Like our good buddy Malthus was trying to tell us before he was drowned out in a chorus of Growth Uber Alles fanatics.  You never go to your barber and ask him if you need a haircut, and you never ask some douche canoe on the payroll of the growth paradigm how to live sustainably.  We already rolled over to the right side of the oil bell curve.
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Why does this mean that you cannot depend on tribal organization to save you when your supplies run out?  Simple.  Like all organizations, you need a surplus to sustain them.  Let us suppose that you have a group-yourself and two buddies.  That is it.  A bare minimum for a group.  Every one of you has a wife.  Each couple has only one child.  That is nine people, and assumes no other family is going to show up.  Assuming you desire combat effectiveness, you need more food.  1500 calories is ONLY system sustainability, NOT operational fuel.
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At 1500 calories a day, your body will not cannibalize itself and there is no mental degradation ( it is not recommended you fall below this ).  But you can do pretty much nothing, or your body needs more calories.  You really need double the minimum for a nice force multiplier over adversaries.  You need that a LOT more than you need radios, FLIR scopes or motor vehicles.  Just saying.  Got four tons of wheat?  Because that is the minimum you need, two years of rations.  At a minimum assuming first year crop failures.  Realistically, I’d double that.
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Right now, assuming ZERO wheat failures from the Midwest floods, wheat is twenty cents a pound.  Forty cents a day is dirt cheap apocalypse food.  It is, literally, an Oil Age miracle.  It is so cheap by historical standards it is inconceivable.  If you don’t have a minimum of a IBC tote full of wheat ( 330 gallons of wheat is 66 buckets worth, just over a ton-assuming a $200 tote, that is barely over $400.  Five years short rations ), you aren’t serious about survival.  The problem comes when there are any dependents.  And they need multiple years of food.
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A tribe is made up of a LOT of dependents.  If anyone in your group cannot pull their full weight in food and ammo, they become a dependent, so odds are some of your fighters fall into this category.  That old saying, “if you want anything done right you have to do it yourself”?  That is literally true, as you won’t get other heads of households to agree on the minimum standards of preparation.  If you want the group to survive, you’ll need to provide the shortfall.  Because I guarantee their needs will meet their means.
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People do not prep for what they need.  They prep based on what they can afford, then justify that amount.  They lie to themselves.  “A year is WAY more food than I need.  I’m ALREADY being extra cautious”.  From your mouth to God’s ears, dumbass.  A minimum of seven years of short rations is a START.  Why?  Because you’ll need a double ration the first two years.  The first crop WILL be a total failure.  We are working with almost universally denuded soil, remember?  Plus, few folks realize a garden is JUST nutrients.  It is almost never calories.  Even with a good crop, it still isn’t enough calories.
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I still believe a die-off will only last about a month ( no room to argue that here ), but you NEVER bet your life on your assumptions no matter how rational they appear.  ALWAYS worst case scenario.  Always.  Assume there is combat far longer than you thought.  So, more food, more ammo.  After that two years, then you still have a three year short ration for raider caches and future crop failures.  And this is a MINIMUM, people.  Seriously.  Planting primitively, odds are good you never see another crop surplus that won’t be balanced by subsequent failures.
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This might be your only opportunity to stockpile condensed long shelf life calories.  Right now, your food preps are hard enough.  With a family, they become three times as hard.  With a minimal tribe, up to NINE times as difficult.  And that assumes you only, ONLY!, take two years to become self-sufficient in food.  You think that is easy?  How about when people are shooting at you to control that farmland?  How do you replace a fallen fighter?  Usually, by already having one on standby.  Who needs to be fed, as do HIS dependents. 
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Now that nine times as difficult figure keeps getting added to.  Do you see the problem with feeding this many people?  BEFORE you start getting crops in?  DURING crop failures?  Are you seeing the issue yet?  Four tons of wheat becomes overly optimistic as a minimum.  You might get up to double digits before you realize it.  Welcome to the REAL logistics of tribe.  Sucks, don’t it?
( .Y. )
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44 comments:

  1. Yes. New acronym for Minionites to roll around with the wheat berries gruel: "D.B.O.O." (don't bet on others) it is currently not reliably wise to bet on an outcome or result from any and all others. They/it will fail your entrustment. The government=barely functions and subject to failures and your personal persecution. Family/friends= ha!, think about that deeply again. Institutions:schools, religions, corporate-business, etc.= spotty dubious records by sketchy actors. Once the thinking Minion tallys score, it should be stupidly clear that even the short bus riding students realize they cannot place any more of that high trust in any elements of this society or systems. Flush out those helmets, and clear out the outdated and incorrect thinking patterns regarding what is no longer appropriate or applicable to our current stations in life. The Mind and thinking warfare is more dynamic and faster than any other arena. That battleground needs more weaponry and strategy than racks of flir rifles and intelligence officer whiteboard reports. Good write up work Jim, Even my slow ambling self "get's it!", here more so than anywhere else. Keep at it.....

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    1. Which is insulting short bus riders, when college graduates have their head up their unicorns ass :)

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  2. Wheatism and all it's plan's and projects work great,
    Until you run out of other people's Wheat!

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    1. Is that a play on Thatcher's take on socialism? :)

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  3. OTOH, food prejudices and general 'pickiness' will end very quickly. The Survivor who learns how to prepare insects for food from scratch will be making themselves as comfortable as possible. Don't forget the hot sauces and other flavorings that will make foods take different as you eat the same thing 27 times in a row . . .

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    1. Cough, rice and beans, cough!

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    2. Good point, often ignored: the value of spices is precisely the enhancement of poor, low quality (spoiled) food. We grow our food, something more than gardening, but less then farming; and one of the first programs was to plant stuff such as horseradish, sage, and thyme. This enables us to more nearly enjoy a diet of goat and wheat. The situation is much more complex than here presented (we raise several species of food animals), but makes the point.

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    3. Spices are a big plus, just don't forget to add variety of dishes. The texture of the food can deliver the perception of variety.

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  4. Let's see the hands of everybody that has 4 tons of wheat on board right now.

    OK, let's see the number of hands of everybody that plans to have 4 tons of wheat on board by the end of the year.

    How big is 4 tons of wheat?
    How many trips back and forth to the store on a bike to acquire 4 tons of wheat?

    At minimum you need to have at least water to mix with the wheat in order to eat it, right? How much water for 4 tons of wheat? 4 tons? Or more? Where are you going to get all that water? If you buy it you have to store it too, right? Man, this is going to require a bigger boat.

    I don't think anyone is going to buy 4 tons of wheat and the water, and the lard, and the butter, and the jelly or whatever to smear all over it, and the means to cook it.

    1 bucket? Maybe. 2 buckets? Maybe. But 4 tons worth? Ain't gonna happen. What's wrong with my thinking on this?

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    1. Luckily for us, water falls out of the sky regularly. My whole point of four tons was to illustrate how stupid thinking you're going to have a tribe is. And, BTW, four IBC totes is four tons-you just need four pallets of floor space.

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    2. Where I live, water falls from the sky and you catch it in barrels. I t rains every month- no need for a multi-year supply. Wheat + water= tortillas. Whatever other food you can find goes in the tortilla. Yes, fat and protein need to be scrounged up, but that is easier to do with calories in your system. This is not a foolproof plan, but internet chat rooms have taught me all plans have significant flaws.

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    3. I can see GS’s point. You really need a way to store all of that wheat, and on top of that, it must be secured from theft, bug, and rodent infestation. So ideally, you would have a parcel of land, and have a lot of work cut out for you to store such a large amount (In reality, likely an underground facility, for it to be truly safe) in a practical manner. Honestly, I only have 50lbs sitting outside in a metal trash can. I’d love to have more, but I’m not on my junk land, so I don’t really have a way to store it here. I haven’t gone to my junk land yet, but once I do, and start to improve upon it, I will have to stay there, and I’m not ready to move there just yet. And I don’t want to haul tons of wheat from Commiefornia to Nevada. I would leave it there, but I would have to know that it was secure before doing so. But of course your overall point about getting it now rather than later, is absolutely correct.

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    4. I can see about not wanting to move it. Once I had to dump hundreds of pounds to move-I almost cried.

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    5. 3:27-no plan survives contact with the enemy, either. It is just helping us sleep better at night, a way to lie to ourselves.

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    6. At a ton per pallet my ol lady would braid my nuts if I dropped that stuff in here somewhere. Can you put casters on a pallet so you can wheel em around and get em out of the way? Can 1 dood even roll a 1 ton pallet is it permanent party wherever you put it?

      I got a small bag of red wheat last year, Bob's Red mill I think. Put a couple tables spoons in my small elect coffee grinder and I thought it blew the blades. I ran it for about 30 seconds but the result was no where near regular flour in fineness. Tried to bit one of the little pebbles from the bag. Nearly snapped a molar, hard as a rock.

      I looked at the Corona, man that thing is small. Only hold a cup or so. And you have to grind it 3 times? Whoa. How much flour for a loaf of bread - 3,4 cups right? That'll take all day to grind. Just for bread. There's got to be a better way. Is there a way to eat the wheat without grinding it? Maybe boil it, like cream of wheat? Will those berries soften if soaked in water? Looking for solutions here.

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    7. With the hopper on it the Corona can go almost two pints wheat. I won't deny it is a pain in the ass to grind. Flour just gives you the maximum number of menu options. Otherwise, sprout and eat or boil and pour in a thermos and sit overnight. If you must know all there is about wheat prepping, download my How To Eat Wheat, in BBBno11

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    8. What's wrong is your common notion that everyone is like you.

      We easily store four tons of wheat, or similar food stuff, and the means to prepare and consume it.

      We early learned that the problem was not acquisition or production; it was storage, which broke down to method and location.

      The biggest investment was location, now solved, but always limiting; that is, even if you construct a secure underground concrete storage area, that space limits your ability to acquire yet another bit of material that needs protection from the elements and scavengers.

      And once the space is filled, the problem of retrieval arises. Keep records (a security risk) and label everything everything.

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    9. Are you saying I have the notion everyone is smart and has nice hair? :)

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    10. Not you, Jim; GS. You are much too clever to pin down.

      Cheers.

      Sam, the Kaffir

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  5. Bad minion here...only got a couple tons of wheat.
    Along with maybe a half ton each of rice, beans , corn , oats, lentils and pasta lol.
    Damn I'd best keep working at it and up my Wheaties eh ?

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    1. But not, if I recall correctly, enough coffee. BAD minion!

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    2. Only a couple years worth of vacuum packed Folgers, that I take the oldest use it and get a replacement each month. So I'm always at two years.
      Though I am considering a few buckets of coffee beans...what do you think ? Pre roasted , or green then mylared with oxy absorbers too.

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    3. You are asking the wrong person. I'm strictly crap coffee orientated. Quantity over quality. $2.75 a pound generic, already ground and roasted. Next you'll ask me what magazine or round of 5.56 to stock. :)

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    4. Go with green beans; they store well,that is years in my experience. Roasting takes a bit of effort, but can be done in a pan held over a fire. Color is the key.

      As soon as the bean is roasted it starts to lose quality, so roast, wait a day at most, grind, and brew.

      And green beans are usually cheaper.

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    5. Anon @ 11:25
      ThatsT kinda what I had thought too.
      Jim...I'd never ask you which magazine or 5.56 round is best...ha ha that mini 14 which I bought for cheaper than dirt , came equiped with a bunch of factory Ruger mags and likely more ammo than I'll ever use...
      Just like u , I consider poodle shooters to be inadequate. Much prefer .30 or bigga...

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    6. Isn't the Ranch version of the Mini in 7.62x39? I'll have to look into that. If its no more than an AK...

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    7. The mini in 7.62 is called the mini 30

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  6. 155kg of white rice is 1,500 calories for one person for one year.

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    1. The one good thing I'll admit about rice is you get a few extra hundred calories per pound.

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    2. 1,500 calories A DAY for one person for one year. Sheesh. You'd think I packed boxes for a living with my poor communications skill

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    3. Don't worry, people are still scratching their heads over the "kg"

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    4. On the topic of brown rice's reputation for spoiling: In my experience, I can cook it 5 years past its best-by date and eat it with no problems. The brand I have in my kitchen now is Mahatma, if that matters.

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    5. Interesting, and baffling. I wonder if some brands have higher oil content than others.

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  7. I just watched that Twilight Zone episode again last night, “The Shelter”. I thought it was humorous that the dude goes through all this trouble to build a bomb shelter, then outfits it with a paper mâché, tin foil lined door, that his hysterical neighbors could bash in with little effort. Of course, he was stupid for telling his A-hole neighbors about it in the first place.

    In either event, just as you do here daily, the protagonist mentions something to the effect that he had previously warned the neighbors, and that instead of throwing lavish parties, and living it up, that they should have been working on their own shelters. It was pretty realistic, in that despite the neighbors stupidity, and lack of willingness to prepare to save their own families, each was able to justify why it was wrong that he had something that they didn’t, and why they should justifiably take it from him (Hmm? His neighbors must have been democrats :D )

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    1. Good to re-watch to keep reminding yourself how everyone is a bastard coated bastard with bastard filling.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ds4nEz59oRw

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    2. Thing is Democrats want to share while times are good, and plenty .
      Republicans are greedy all the time and think the poor are only good for labor.
      Both will be coming for your stash when SHTF !
      Question is , which one of your neighbors are you more likely to share with ? The fat cat Republican who always liked down on you. Or the Democrat who thought sharing was a good thing...

      I say neither and have a sold good door.

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  8. I think the die off will last months and months, if not in a cold winter.

    But, this time will be different. I'm sure this die-off will be a safe space for all involved.

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    1. Sure, since we've eliminated micro-aggressions.

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    2. I read that some dude survived a year (medically supervised & with vitamins) without eating because he prepped by being incredibly obese.

      It's the American way yo!


      To be fair though, I follow that strategy. I don't know. But I did read that a pound of fat has 3,500 calories. I'm good for .... dang I just googled it 80 fricken days. LOL.

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    3. And you thought you didn't have enough wheat! :)

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  9. re:
    Alternative Foods

    Here in Eugene Oregon, we have a company called CRAFT CRICKETS. Their operation is very compact, barely 40x60 by 8 high. The cricket habitats are shoe-box size standard plastic totes. The cricket food is restaurant scraps plus newspaper.

    I imagine the CRAFT CRICKETS food cost is nearly zero.
    I estimate they produce several dozen # of edible crickets daily.

    I sampled their products. You look at a handful of bugs, but they are dehydrated or fried or baked with garlic and cinnamon and all the usual spices.

    I'm here to testify I will eat them by the bowlful anytime. Delicious and nutritious.

    Ground into flour, baked in breads and cakes.

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    Snails:
    Growing aquatic snails is popular in Hawaii.
    Butter and garlic.
    I will eat them anytime.

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    Here in Oregon, the place is infested with the yuge rodents called 'nutria'. Africans and south Americans grow them in cages for food. Quick to mature, their diet is weeds.

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    My point? We may overlook resources because of cultural conditioning.

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I must moderate-trust me. Criticize ideas, NOT the people behind them. Be civil. You will be warned twice and the third time just deleted. No N-Bombs. If you disagree with me, you must praise my hair first.