iran and derivatives

IRAN AND DERIVATIVES

If you remember back a ways, while all the hoopla over the Norks had everyone secreting black ink in fear, just like a squid, I stated that the fear was overblown and nothing to pay any mind to.  The Norks don’t have oil, but they do have nukes, and the odds of them ever being attacked by us were nearly zero.  The odds of them attacking for no reason were about equal.  It was all a bunch of fear porn.  How do you know when an author ( to use too generous of a term ) is merely a Fear Porn star? 

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When they focus on singular events rather than system wide issues.  Let me give you a few examples.  Dow drops two thousand points-that’s a collapse!  Less than 30% of families are Christian-that’s a collapse!  Over half the population has only a month’s wages in savings-that’s a collapse!  Bible says the end is nigh-that’s a collapse!  See a pattern here?  Just because the Norks hate us and have nukes means very little.  Just because the US wants the entire world as its bitch means very little.  Without the means, motive means dingus.

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Does the US hate the Persians?  Of course we do.  They won’t be a docile colony nor do they care to cum guzzle at the Dollar Dingus.  Just because a dildo is red, white and blue doesn’t mean we should be shoving it up places the sun doesn’t shine.  I’m all for tribute from the globe if it benefits me, but surely we learned our lesson from Vietnam?  We started screwing Iran from the second world war ( with the commies ) on.  We are lucky they aren’t MORE belligerent.  But they ARE smarter than we are and don’t poke the bear.

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Our only excuse for wanting to attack them is that Israel wants us to clean up their mess while we still have the means to do so, before we abandon the Heebs to their own devices.  And we all know Forrest Trump loves the Israelis.  Remember how Obammy got in trouble when he was bowing to all those Turd World dictators, as if they were equal?  That is Trump, but he isn’t silly enough to get caught on camera.  So, we know for sure the US wants to attack Iran.  And yet, CAN we?  I’m not saying strategically.  I’m wondering about economically.

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I believe it was Pepe Escobar who stated we cannot attack Iran because of the $2.5 QUADRILLION in derivatives endangered by such an action.  First, Good Gravy!  I remember the arguments ten years ago as to whether we were even close to ONE QUADRILLION ( always spelled in caps, Dr. Evil style ), and now it is almost three times that amount!  You do remember that the derivatives market is what crashed the economy in 2008, do you not?  And second, do you have any idea what the price of oil would be if the Straights Of Hormuz was shut down?

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The price of gasoline goes up 30% on possible ethanol shortages, which is ten percent of gasoline.  What if HALF the globes oil stopped flowing?  Yes, Saudi Arabia has pumping stations and pipelines to bypass that chock point.  Guess what?  Those are just as vulnerable to missiles as cargo ships are.  It doesn’t matter how many batteries are destroyed by the US Navy ( assuming they aren’t busy crashing into merchant ships or holding sensitivity training in the fire control area ), it just takes ONE oil tanker scuttling to cancel all the others ones insurance.

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You know how they say that if you owe the bank a million dollars they own you but if you owe the bank a hundred million, you own them?  Iran is in that position of owning Hormuz by virtue of a target rich environment.  Yet, since we cannot know more than 1% of what is really going on, given the Potomac Pravda industry, could there be other factors we cannot know about?  Sure, granted.  Those are called Black Swans.  Perhaps the evil of NOT attacking is worse than actually doing so.  I have no idea, nor does any other scribbler.

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The bankers could get so desperate they forget that the last Depression was not averted by their genius money printing but by Fracking.  It always come down to energy, be it body fuel ( calories ) or industrial fuel ( oil ).  All our problems today were caused by switching our economy from US oil to Saudi oil in the early 70’s.  Back then, some pretty smart guys knew how the economy was kept out of a black hole.  Do they still understand that?  I’m sure they do, as evidenced by Fracking.  The question, though, is IF knowing matters.

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My guess is no, because there are no more rabbits to pull out of the hat.  There are no more Saves once fracking stops ( stops GROWING.  Not stops completely. Just, stops growing ).  Could we have a plan to attack Iran, knowing full well the world economy instantly craps the bed?  Again, anything is possible.  It could be along the lines of “attacking the Soviets before they attack us, even though it opens a second front” the Nazi’s were forced into ( in theory ).  Just because the west is controlled by globalists doesn’t mean their script cannot be altered.

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All in all, however, I would probably say that as many scenarios as I could spin FOR an Iran attack ( unaffordable oil is a great way to Die-Off excess population, without the bother of bio-weapons or nuclear fallout, for instance ), if all things are equal and we don’t get total idiots doing totally stupid crap, if Business As Usual is desired I see no reason we would want to attack Iran.  It simply doesn’t pass the smell test of common sense.  Syrian and Iraqi and Libyan oil going off market never imperiled the majority of production as targeting Iran would.

( .Y. )

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