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Tuesday, June 20, 2017

unemployment rate


UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

What is the real unemployment rate?  Shadow Stats says it is 22%, and the FedGov claims it is 4%.  Obviously, if you’ve been looking for a job your know 4% is obvious bullspit.  Everything the government tells you is a lie.  Always has been.  We all know that.  The big difference now is how hilariously obviously wrong the official numbers are.  Now, Shadow Stats performed a yeoman service by originally popularizing the questionability of government statistics, but they are behind a pay wall now.  No big deal, you cheap humpers wouldn’t pay if he wasn’t.  But I have no way of reading further how he got his numbers.  I do know that the Labor Participation Rate is down to like 60%, but they don’t call that the unemployment rate.  I’m not sure why.  Let’s poke around a little.  There are 200 million ( I round up and down, but slightly ) people of working age in the US, 15 to 64.  A lot of people don’t work until 18, and some retire at 62.  Some are in college until 22.  Still, I find it hard to believe that is 10% of the work force.

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Look, if you are 16, and there are no jobs available, you can technically be said to be a student not looking for work, but you can also be unemployed.  If you retired two years early because there are no jobs, are you out of the work force or are you unemployable?  If you assume the work force needing a job but not being able to get one is ONLY from ages 22 to 62, then possibly the unemployment numbers are 22% ( forget about the government number.  If you go off of unemployment insurance because your benefits dry up, they claim you are no longer unemployed ).  But if you include the full range of ages, it is closer to 33%.  The work age population is 200 million.  There are 140 million jobs out there.  So, even with all the part time work counted as a real job, you are still seeing a third of people unemployed.  They have a real neat trick of calling “full time” only 35 hours, also.  Where I came from, if you ain’t working 40 hours, you don’t have a full time job.  So they get away with claiming “only” 20% of jobs are part time.

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You can’t really find better numbers at a quick glance, but I would wager at a minimum, given the realities of the ObamaCare dictate of fewer full time workers, it has to be closer to a third, also.  We have 33% unemployment, with a third of those still technically with a job only working part time.  Again, if we assume everyone aged 15 to 64 wants a job, we are looking at the 33% unemployment.  However!  Even that is too low, once you factor in how many folks work two jobs and even a sprinkling of illegal aliens working the officially counted jobs.  The one, two job holders, decreases the number of workers in the count, making the unemployment number larger in relation to the number of jobs available.  If only about ten percent of the folks out there work more than one job, that shrinks the number of jobs from 140 million to 125 million.  Now we are looking at 40% unemployment.  If 5% of jobs are held by “undocumented workers”, the number of workers goes up to 210 million.  For 125 million jobs.  Almost fifty percent unemployment.

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According to The Economic Collapse Blog, the number of people unemployed just went over 101 million.  Counting our illegals ( for a total of 210 million.  And that assumes ONLY 5% of jobs are held by illegals ), that comes close to fifty percent.  I understand how the official numbers can be only 4%.  They just add an imaginary number of fantasy jobs created, on top of disappearing you once your bennies run out.  And we know 50% is too high.  Most of those folks are working in the grey economy or getting government assistance or living with family for free.  I would say that the 26% to 33% is probably pretty darn close to reality.  Not that anyone is starving.  This isn’t the Great Depression.  But it tells you several things.  First, you are flaming retarded moronic mouth breathing idiot if you think you need to eliminate welfare programs.  That will NOT balance the budget but rather invite rebellion.  At Great Depression unemployment levels, PLUS, you need to feed the unemployed.  There are only 120 million people working, and 320 million population.  Of those employed, it is a fair bet that less than a 100 million work full time.  If 2/3 of the population are NOT dependents then jobs only available for 1/3 is not going to support those now on benefits ( the fable that an unregulated economy will produce more jobs assumes energy growth, which we don’t have, and no robots and no overseas jobs.  It is also 1%’er propaganda, to keep the poor and the workers combating each other rather than the Elite ).

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Second, if the BEST numbers for current unemployment are worse than Great Depression levels, you can under no circumstances say The Great Recession is over.  We are in a greatER Depression, and things are getting worse.  So far, nobody cares overly much, big picture wise ( I understand it is not as benign of a feeling when you personally get screwed with a pink slip ).  Everyone is getting welfare payments.  Early Social Security ( “only” a 30% haircut if you retire at 62 rather than 65 ).  Disability.  Food Stamps.  Yes, your income might be close to zero, but with Food Stamps you are just poor instead of destitute.  I can live on the equivalent of seven hours a week and be fine.  I’m sure others are in a similar situation, even with no benefits  The thing is, there are almost half the number of Food Stamp recipients as there are full time job holders.  ANY decrease in welfare payments is going to effect MORE people than are officially employed.  The safety net is really the 1%’er safety net, to keep them from being Lampposted.  All these idiots calling for the welfare state to be eliminated are calling for rebellion.  You won’t be safe in your suburbs.

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But what happens when welfare bennies stop or are cut to the point they might as well be abolished?  It truly is the end, and not  just because of that old propaganda standby of Blacks rioting without EBT payments ( an old standby for its actual truthfulness-I say propaganda as it is used by the Elite to control Whites ).  The actual unemployment rate as it stands now ONLY precludes actual armed rebellion because of welfare payments.  It won’t just be a Negro with anger control issues you’d have to worry about but also your trailer park neighbor Bubba.  Yet, what is it that will actually happen sooner of later?  Given the choice of keeping the fracking fields pumping or keeping the welfare checks coming, what will the Elite choose?  The energy flowing.  The ex-welfare will rebel sooner or later, but with energy the elite at least have a slim chance of staying in charge.  So, good-bye safety net, eventually. 

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If unemployment is really at a third, how safe is your job?  And how easy could you replace it?  No wonder preppers won’t move regardless of unsafe location.  They know there are no more jobs to be had anywhere.  Would anyone move if the official unemployment rate was 33%?  Hell, even the 22% is too high for comfort.  And if my worse case figure of 50% is close to being true ( which you can almost feel given the lack of Help Wanted signs and the numbers of store closings ), you can’t afford to move, can you?  No wonder you don’t care about junk land.  If every one of my minions bought some from E-Bay, there would be no more available ( and some of that E-Bay land isn’t even junk land but ruinously expensive.  I’d say the market for under $3k land is limited nationally to most likely under my readership numbers.  If you plan on acting, do so now, even if you don’t move.  A VERY finite supply, discounting county tax sales ) anyway.  Of course, by NOT acting, you are just stuck in place waiting for things to get worse.  Or, in other words, trying to time the collapse hoping you die before your job does.

END

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27 comments:

  1. Jim in my opinion unemployment is 30 To 35%.You are 100% correct to end foodstamps would cause MASS rioting. F.S. are the only thing that has kept the masses from insurrection. Welfare is a much smaller % and primarily females with kids it would be the first cut (less chance of riots). We also need to factor in F.S. benefit retailers and food conglomerates which are controlled by the uber rich 1%.

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    1. I knew 50% was too high, even if feasible. I think the one third mark is right on. Yet am amazed no one thinks much of this. I guess this just means we are all comfortable with the welfare state. The 1% enrichment from FS is a good thing. It means it is one of the last things to go.

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    2. 30% is economically survivable for the country because, with automation (computers, robots, etc), and reduced economic demands people can survive for quite a while. The grey and black economy are also doing decent - for now.
      But that level of unemployment means that nothing new can really get done (on an infrastructure basis) sure the old stuff can be kept marginally maintained - most of the time - but it cant be replaced by better.
      Which means the whole dream of switching the USA to being powered by giant windmills and solar panels is just a dream. I drove through a major windfarm in the columbia river valley not long ago. Hundreds of GIANT wind turbines. Beautifully strong (but consistent) winds were blowing. Only a few of the turbines were on and turning. Huh.
      Everyone I know who lost a job between 2008 and current has either been stuck in a lower paying job, or bowed out of the job market entirely (early retirement, disability, welfare, or minimal self employment that barely earns more than welfare, or in many cases, back to living with relatives usually parents or even grandparents.
      This especially included recent college graduates- yes even the retirement option. The official student loan default numbers are off by at least double IMHO. I think the truth will be revealed soon, and then???
      Student loans, corporate loans, and real estate loans, are now the vast majority of the banks balance books.

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    3. Student loans are going to get bail-outs. Real estate is okay, kinda, as all the foreclosed homes are being rented out or left to rot to jack up rents. Corporate loans like for the frackers are the most problematic, but hey, one out of three ain't bad!

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    4. Student loans bailing out WHO? the students wont be paying back the loans, the banks can sue them, get wage garnishment, IRS refund check garnishments, but if they touch food stamps or welfare they will trigger riots at the least. So they will have to find some way of forgiving the student for the loans.
      I think they will do it by forcing defaulting students into 'civil works projects' but more like the gulag in USSR - but with declining inputs and crumbling infrastructure I don't think they will be able to keep the debt slaves fed and housed any better than the nazis did in their 'work camps'.
      I have student loans. I am working on my escape plans now, as there is no way to repay the student loans.

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    5. Yes, likely the Nazi work to the death camps, but in the interim I'd say govt. bail outs to the bankers. I'm focused in that answer on just keeping the economy going for now, the kick the can down the road. Work camps after that point, right?

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  2. Jim

    I see you can get a name brand M4 copy for under $400.

    https://www.cdnnsports.com/dpms-oracle-ar15-5-56-custom-package.html#.WUloczGWy1t

    I still think we will see 22lr for under 5 cents around.

    Now the gun and ammo makers can bend over and take it. After 16 years of Obama/Clinton they were riding high on the hog.

    DW

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    1. Sorry, I disagree. Peak Copper. I'm not sure what the true cost of making an AR is, you almost wonder if they are selling below cost to stay in business. As far as bend over and take it-I'm all for that. Bastards helped pass gun control, import bans, etc.

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    2. I've been friends with the general manager (Mike) of the local gun shop for some years now. Mike's shop focuses on law enforcement type weapons and equipment so they do a LOT of traffic in ARs and other EBRs (Evil Black Rifles). A few weeks ago I asked him why ARs had dropped so far in price. He said that the manufacturers were betting on a Hillary win and the inevitable spike in demand for EBRs that it would cause. They turned the manufacturing spigot for ARs to "Ludicrous Speed" and were left with an huge stockpile when Trump won and that demand never materialized. Mike said that they are now they selling them at around cost to liquidate inventories.

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    3. Careful with them cheap guns, hoss. Notice I said cheap, not inexpensive. There's a diff. The only people that are buying the cheap stuff are people that don't know what cheap looks like. They see and AR and they see $400 and the plastic jumps out of the wallet and dives into the swiper. whoa

      I just finished a decent AR build and it was no where near $400. Knowing what I know now, I shudder to think what $400 buys.

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    4. If Gun Parts Inc. sells rifles, but Build Your Own Co. buys parts from Gun Parts Inc to sell to you to make your own rifle, would that account for the difference and be just as safe? Of course, that said, if I had a $400 AR I'd buy steel cased ammo for it and use it as a means to get a better one.

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  3. we do think much of it but what are we gonna do?
    saw fast food employees wanted raises and are now being replaced by machines which customers use by pushing a button to make a choice.
    so those jobs will be gone, too.

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    1. "don't think much of it" as in "not panicking". The fast food industry has bigger issues than $15 an hour wages. They were fighting through govt. twenty years ago to suppress wages and other regulations, but are just now getting in huge trouble. My one word guess? Corn. I know I have an article coming up real soon talking about the 40% of our food in frozen form. Ties in with the fast food industry.

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    2. oh thou of shining locks, i will look forward with great interest to the upcoming article.
      odd how just one grain crop has such great impact.
      glad to see you sanguine about student loans and real estate in your above comment.
      interested in your opinion about the banks letting the repossessed properties languish. i don't understand how that is beneficial to anybody.
      i'm still hoping for a not too bumpy descent of our former republic.

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    3. Allowing foreclosed properties to sit vacant means the other foreclosed properties rented out will gather higher rental costs. Decreasing supply AND making mortgage loans almost impossible creates a huge rental demand.

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  4. I dislike the M4 style of AR. If it's not select fire, it should be a 20" barrel M16A2 or -A3 so you get the velocity to do some damage at the 300M range I want to be from the target, or upgrade to a bigger cartridge(minimum 7.62NATO)with the attendant weight/cost issues (FAL makes a young man strong and spending like Khadaffi!).

    pdxr13

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    1. I look at like the M16 is so crappy, why not do crappy-er and use the M4? How much are you sacrificing? But your point is taken.

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  5. OK, if so many people are "not working" how come ALL the restaurants are slammed all the time?

    My wife took me out to lunch on Father's Day (Who's yer daddy?) and the parking lots were filled everywhere. I ended up eating a side salad and a big chili at Wendy's.

    FWIW, the fast food joints are begging for help, starting at $9 or $10/hr. The public embarrassment that served us at Wendy's looked like an escape from NY refugee - weerd knotted up 3 colored hair, 25+ years old, multiple facial piercings, home made tats all over both arms, and THAT'S what Wendy's puts right up front on the counter. I think it was a male with a 3 day shadow.

    Everywhere I look I see businesses suiciding themselves in a hundred different ways. It's almost as if they are trying to fail.

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    1. You can serve more people with the same staff? I'm not sure how this works exactly, I was just going with national statistics. It amazes me our local economy sees more businesses in trouble, unemployment stayed about the same, but with 25% more population. I'm missing a variable.

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    2. People will spend their last penny on smokes and beer.
      Maybe the variable is addiction?

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    3. Good answer. Evil Ex #2 would insist on eating out to "treat ourselves" prior to payday, no money and bills due. "Oh well, we're broke, might as well just spend it on ourselves". I'm pretty sure that is still how she budgets. And those decades of eating out have packed the poundage on. I guess it is an addiction. Addicted to bad food...I think I'd rather start doing crack.

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    4. i could be wrong but i think some of it is a kind of hopelessness, as in, we have almost nothing so let us eat and drink before we die.
      almost like the last meal for a guy going to the electric chair.

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    5. Another good answer! Damn, you all are on fire with this one.

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    6. I understand the addicted to bad food perfectly.
      If I slip up and eat that corn based cancer feed of fast food I get cravings for more and more, and pack on the pounds in every way until I do a cleansing (see 'fast') for at least a week and then have to live perfectly clean (veggies, fruit, meat ONLY) for at least a couple of months to avoid it again.
      I am about to begin a fast again as I slipped up over this winter and have at least 20lbs to lose before I can use the bike for longer hauls than just work and back.

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    7. And I'm not one to talk. I have to always discipline myself. No chips, soda once a week or less, only 1 cig a day, only X amount of coffee, force myself to drink water. I have a dozen low grade addictions rather than one or two big ones.

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  6. That $400 AR thing got me thinking.

    How much would people evaluate that platform without all the hype ? Like, if you had a new AK-style rifle and a new AR-style rifle, how much more would you spend on the AK (or the AR) respective to the alternative ? 10% more ? 20% more ?

    Now that a Savage Axis in .308 or .223 is around 300 USD, and you get a new single shot shotgun for $99 at Wal-Mart, how much more are you willing to spend on an AR, and what justifies this extra spending ?

    I believe that a Savage Axis in .30-30 or 7,62x39 is all anybody needs on a family scale (even on a neighbourhood defense scale) if you're serious about it (i.e. not blow away all your ammo on semi-auto fire on the first three days).

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    1. I think a $400 SKS is a better deal than a $400 AR, but the price point off everything besides the Wally shotgun is all about the same. Everything is $300-$500. So price isn't so important. Ammo and spare parts, more so. The AR hype of universal availability is true, at least. Everything else about it blows. Not the AK, but the SKS, can be almost as accurate ( not Chinese ). It is too flimsy. Too easily dirtied. But, spare parts are rather important.

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