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Sunday, June 18, 2017

credit where it's due


CREDIT WHERE ITS DUE
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note: as of this posting, still a free download.  click here A darn good post-apoc novel.  A fine sense of humor, no tired clichés.
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This article was inspired by the Doomer Diner Dude.  It seems that the imminent prospect of death has indeed placed his creative muse firmly in the drivers seat ( remember, these Nuggets O’ Wisdom are prepared two weeks ahead of publication-it used to be a week but I have more time on my hands now-and if he’s died between now and then this article will be even more dated ) and this was one of his better postings on the already in the rearview mirror middle east and north Africa triage on food and oil. 

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( we are rapidly losing far too many doomer sites.  Rawles site wouldn’t really be missed, but its changes seem like desperation to me and might portend a near future demise.  But even if not, the changes do make it a site to not be followed anymore.  Orlov is still around but hiding behind a pay wall.  I always bought his books, even e-books I never read because they were just blog reposts, to support him, but his less than stellar past weekly posts-perhaps one good one out of four-don’t deserve extra support.  The Druid Dude is gone.  I always bought his books, the same as Orlov, but he isn’t interested in Doom anymore.  I suppose his cognitive dissonance kicked into high gear, the boots on the ground collapse unsupportive of his 300 year soft collapse stance.  Which is too bad, as he was mentally challenging in other ways.  The Black Cat Dude, post-apoc fiction reviewer extraordinaire, doesn’t seem to be coming back.  I miss his calls on any BS I engaged in inadvertently.  And now Doomer Dude is not long for this world ).

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This is of course old news.  The Arab Spring was a direct result of the US surplus corn crop being diverted from World Colonization Peace Bribe to domestic ethanol consumption, with a sprinkling of economic collapse thrown in.  I suppose some bright boy in charge in DC figured that since Our Boys were already parked there doing such a great job pacifying Iraqi’s that any other famine riots could easily be doused by a few battalions of tanks planting the flag in another country.  The Arab Spring was never about dictators suppressing people.  The US Fight For World Democracy bullspit was pulled out in WWI when the newly created Federal Reserve Bank was in jeopardy of losing their war loan profits, used by ROOseVelt as an excuse to secure world dominion from a nearly defeated UK, while saving the banks from their 1929 folly, and calling the Arab Spring a democratic revolt is as stupid as sitting on a fence post and calling it an enema.  The 2008 economic collapse, caused by the 2005 Peak Conventional Oil, along with the ethanol stunt and the $150 barrel of oil price surge, throw in some global drought, all Perfect Stormed the area and once stable dictatorships saw dissatisfied populations voicing their displeasure at going hungry.

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There was also more to it than that, of course.  There always is.  Libya was Fail Stated by us because of the threat of the gold currency Dinar being used for oil sales ( rather than the PetroDollar ).  We helped France stick its nose into other countries.  The whole place is a mess.  Drought and famine and energy decline and overpopulation and geopolitics makes a very messy stew.  The Doomer Diner Dude article, to me, made a very good point in that credit is also playing a part.  As the economic contraction just gets worse, the bankers are withholding credit from a lot of these countries so that they are unable to buy enough fuel for power generation.  The bankers CAN’T issue enough credit, even if they were so inclined, because of the 2008 derivatives implosion black hole-ing assets, the current need to continue buying more derivatives to keep the economy moving ( keeping commodity prices low to continue to be able to buy more assets for more derivatives ), and the need to keep our fracking industry viable with all the credit we can issue them ( fracking oil is 30% of our daily oil use-without it we are literally in the dark ). 

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The fracking oil industry ( I include fracking gas in with the oil.  One wonders if our electric grid would still even be up and running without that gas.  Without the oil, all our transportation would have halted ) is literally all that is between us and the economic collapse.  We use, going by the last numbers I have-it could be worse already, 18 million barrels of oil a day.  Six of that is fracking oil.  Since the start of the demise of the PetroDollar, in less than a decade, China has stopped buying our debt ( quantitative easing being the answer ) and we can’t get foreign oil as free as it used to be.  That is why we rely on fracking and Canadian Tar, deep well production in the Gulf Of Mexico and other Fake Oil sources ( ultra low EROI ).  Something like 12 out of 18 million barrels a day are low energy fake oil substitutes.  That is our economy, and that is why there is no economic recovery.  Subsidizing the frackers is cheaper than buying other foreign oil. 

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So the only thing, literally, keeping the lights on is the bankers ability to extend credit to the frackers.  Even if the derivatives 1.2 quadrillion dollar bet doesn’t implode, fracking fields are not going to remain viable.  They are chock-a-block full of wells that drop in production 80% in from one to three years.  They must keep drilling more and more wells, just to keep production from declining faster.  The industry as a whole is already in declining production.  The bankers are throwing good money after bad, knowing exactly what they are doing, as the economy hinges on energy.  If the derivatives blow, there is no more bankers and no more credit and no more frackers.  If the fields stop producing enough, there is not enough energy to keep the economy running and hence no more bankers.  No matter what happens, that is the end my beautiful friend.  All we await is the timing, not the direction.  Why do you think it is so important to convince folks that fracking was a miracle?  What, you’re going to tell them it is the last can able to be kicked down the road and once it’s over in around a single decade, we are all going to die? 

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Listen, please.  Production figures already show fracking is in decline.  We know the derivatives casino is going bust again.  You know this can only end badly.  Please take this threat seriously.  Panicking early, for the bare bones basics of wheat and ammo, a few hundred bucks here and there, is not going to break anyone financially.  So if I’m 100% wrong you lose nothing.  You still have a basic stockpile of end of the world goodies.  If you panic and leave your job and wife and move to junk land, you gain a much needed restful vacation.  As long as you give two weeks notice, you’ve done enough to insure yourself if nothing falls apart as quickly as I think it will.  It doesn’t matter if I’m wrong, but it sure matters if I’m right.  Most of the time, I take anything from the news and reverse it 180, figuring everything is a damn lie and/or statistic.  When the Bush Team started sucking up to the bankers ( “this suckers going down” ), exactly what Obama did so neither political party is your bestest buddy in the whole wide world, I of course scoffed at the possibly manufactured disaster. 

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Today, after so much research for ten years, so many connect-the-dots and all the since then developments, I’m no longer so sure.  Perhaps the bail out really was, for the first time, necessary to keep the economy from imploding.  Not just being about profits ( not that the bankers didn’t take plenty of those ) but basic survival.  And back ten years ago, the energy situation wasn’t even as bad as it is today.  The fracking industry was really just getting started.  The PetroDollar was still being defended successfully.  And, here is the important part, credit was just starting to contract.  Credit is a lot worse today.  Our bankers enriched themselves at the world tit, for many years ( the ‘90’s were so good to us financially as we not only suckled on the Siberian oil spigot, but liquidated the Soviet economy to our benefit ).  We had a literal global economy we financed.  And now that has ended and is in the contraction phase, along with our energy supply.  All those bastards who escaped to Idaho in the ‘90’s-yes, there is a bit of envy in my anti Idaho screeds-did so at the perfect time, riding the last energy glut.  You can’t duplicate that, not without up front cash on the barrelhead.  You can’t finance it or do it on the payment installment plan.  Rent-To-Own doesn’t offer Idaho retreats.

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Look at how bad our economy got in ten years.  As Diner Dude pointed out, look at Egypt and other area nations and look how good they were doing ten years ago compared to now.  In ten years we’ll have suffered a similar crash in living standards, down to one hour a day grid power.  No more Internet, and that is the good news.  What about food and other vital trade goods?  Rome went from ruling most of the world to having sheep graze in the Coliseum.  We will be no different and we will go from barely hanging on and kicking the can to complete and utter Dark Age die-off in just a few short years.  We don’t even have the ten years DDD supposes ( granted, he is just guessing, and states it could be less.  I guess a lot less ).  You just need a single tripwire event to crash the entire system.  Things are collapsing quicker than ever before.  Don’t let hindsight make you its bitch.  Don’t assume we’ll be the last to fall, either.  The more dependent on others you are, the quicker you fall.  And the US is dependent on others for everything.

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It isn’t just getting 80% of our military technology from overseas.  It isn’t just about getting 40% of our oil imported ( as soon as the fracking oil stops, that figure jumps back to the old 70% ).  It isn’t just having most of our produce coming up from Mexico.  It is also the globe being the profit engine for our banks.  And the globe is in severe economic contraction.  The bankers survival means trade and commerce remain viable, without which we don’t get gasoline, water, sewer or food delivered.  No jobs.  Hell, we can’t even continue to supply our larger urban areas with new police recruits, the obvious Black guerrilla warfare coupled with Black police chiefs political PC nonsense turning away most likely applicants.  Why would you go into a war zone when your officers paint a target on your back?  How long before urban warfare destroys infrastructure?  Even BEFORE the bankers credit ceases flowing.

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I’m not sure how anyone can look around and NOT see the obvious cliff face we are teetering on.  As those doomer sites close down or are bloated with desperation ads to the point they aren’t worth visiting.  As freeze dried firms see a drastic business slow down.  You’d think the doomer business would be booming.  Do you understand why they are not?  The economy is SOOO bad, no one can afford to spend extra on expensive prepper gear.  Not enough to support the companies who place the ads to support the prep gear porn sites.  What other indicator could you possibly need?  The economy is so bad you can’t prep for the economy getting bad.  Not on conventional advice.  Not that this will help grow the readership here.  Far too many brainwashed preppers who won’t listen to anything not FLIR scope mounted AR related.  They visit over here, see “peak oil”, immediately flash back to their hero Glen Beck spouting Fracking Fag nonsense, and quickly leave.  I’ve had guest ads on both DDD and Creekmore that followed the same pattern.  They don’t want to hear about real doom, just fun and sexy militia gear. 

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Back during the last economic contraction, 2008, the economy had enough juice left in it to see the birth of, literally, hundreds of prepper web sites.  Everyone who lost their urban home and job moved out to the country and started an online prepper business.  For awhile it paid the bills.  Prepper supplies flowed out the doors in Utah, start up gun companies dog piled on the AR market.  The AR guys are still churning out product, even if the mark-ups blow mule members now.  In a blackout, hurricane scare, Rodney King riot or any market correction, guns always sell.  While everybody plays the PC tune out of self preservation, gun sales correlate with the fear of Blacks turning on Whites.  Folks will use the last credit card or sell their last outdoor recreational toy to afford to buy what they perceive of as a military weapon.  The blogs and web sites?  They are a dime a dozen and all give the same advice and there is little reason to play the old Ninja Mall Warrior game of researching doom all day long as recreation when the economy is REALLY crashing around you.

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Before, it was just a fun hobby.  Now, as the collapse really happens, nobody needs the preppers advice.  They buy cases of cans, more ammo and go deeper in debt to desperately cling to their jobs ( staying in town and commuting are costing more and more ).  That is the default prep activity.  Hunker down, but only focus on the short term survival needs as systematic collapse is too scary to contemplate.  There is a reason preppers focus on guns over food.  There is still time left to buy food, in theory, but the Darkies are already at war with you.  You prep for reality, for the immediate threat.  Everything else is theory and hence not of immediate concern.  Food only got bought when there was a surplus.  Now that there isn’t, the food and other toys are short changed.  Only defense is given priority.  Purveyors of storage foods, and the sites they supported through advertising, made the mistake of thinking people respond to a need rationally.  No, they don’t.  They compartmentalize mentally according to resources, and they NEVER look at the future rationally but traditionally.  Whatever worked in the last disaster/war is what you do now.  You have no other choice in a resource shortage.  You don’t have the means to try new, you just cling to old.  If you had the resources then you’d try both, for insurance.  Lack of business for storage foods spell out lack of resources.  See how knowing human natures helps with this doomer timing?

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The end is already nigh, yo!  Seriously, light a fire under your ass already.

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10 comments:

  1. Did you know Nitro-Pak is going out of business. It's one of the larger food storage companies. I guess the guy is retiring. Being such a well known company, I'm surprised he wasn't able to sell it.

    Idaho Homesteader

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    1. One of the few names I recognize. No, I didn't know that. Thank you. So, it's worse than I thought.

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  2. It amazes me that because we elected Trump some think the chance of the SHTF is less. The economics of the end are baked into the cake all we are waiting on is the center to collapse. I think its funny that preparedness supply companies didn't have a plan for lower sales.

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    1. It amazes me that people think the election wasn't rigged. Could a better foil to Trump been imagined? You have a guy who thinks Korean assassins are after him in the '90's, the crippled guy always clutching a pencil, secret underwear wearing Mormons-come on! The obvious guy/gal who can't win is put up against the already picked winner. If that doesn't work, digital hacked election night. You hear too many stories. Trump was a bad choice, so they get a Deplorables hollering epileptic so your only choice is Trump.

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  3. Found you though C5.. interesting reading.. I am another one of those Canadian's. I do agree that food in all ways is #1 in so many ways..

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    1. Welcome, and please do not run away screaming like so many others. If you like it here-hours and hours of wondrous enlightenment in back articles-you may be inducted into the ranks of my Loyal Minions. You are welcome.

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    2. I have been reading since the post C5 shared your site, just wanted to do some steady reading before willing to comment. I don't think I am going to run away screaming.. So far you have made ma laugh daily, made me do the eye twitch thing that says, I need to put that one away and mull it and you have made me read a few things out loud to the hubby and started some chats

      I have figured out that some of the things I do currently, you would nail me to the wall LOL..

      but I will say this.. (having never read anything you wrote) when I put up a bit of extra to the storage last fall.. I added in a ton of wheat and Barley each.

      I am a eat your preps gal but I also do a longer term plan and a three year plan as well as a yearly plan etc.

      And I know that you would approve of the amount of sprouting that takes place LOL

      Your last post made me think about many talks that happened around the fire and kitchen table in the late 70's and 80's that happened with my "back to the land" parents and their many friends..

      They would have been either hard core preppers now or call it what it is.. heavy leanings towards being a survivalist. Not that they would have used either of those words themselves.

      They were rednecks, hunters, trappers, and back to the land people that felt that the old skills were being lost and must be lived, worked and passed on to the next generation.








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    3. Glad you are planning on sticking around. Too few gals here. They have stuck around for years listening to my Bad Wife rants, bless their hearts ( 50 years old until I finally find the best one out there-the gods are snickering ). A ton each of two grains-you have my official Extra Biscuit For A Good Minion seal of approval! Just don't buy a FLIR scope or I'll have to cancel it.

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  4. If the "SURVIVALIST EXPERT" c***suckers are have a hard time then I LIKE IT!

    Lying bastards did everything to make a buck.

    Good Riddance!

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    1. Nothing wrong with making a buck, but, yep, as you say, when you lie you deserve bad things. Liars By Ignorance are not as evil, but they also don't deserve to last financially.

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