Wednesday, January 8, 2020

peev2c10


PEEv2c10
Precious Metal
When I originally wrote this chapter, back in version one, there were huge premiums above the spot price of silver, as the supplies were drying up. I believe this was about the same time that ammo was in short supply. Since then, the global economic slow down got serious, and demand for both has dropped. Fewer jobs, less pay if you are employed, higher cost of living ( Jesus, Joseph and Mary, am I the only one who remembers that the Obama administration was similar to the Carter one, economically? ), less consumption.
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That is the micro scale for America. Macro, China is seeing only one half to one third the growth it was. Less demand there. This gives the illusion of affordable and available resources. This is your last chance to buy cheap and stack deep. You can ignore me, because “'Murica” will be #1 forever ( #1 in prison incarceration, #1 in worst education and medical system in first world countries, #1 in debt, #1 in wasting the budget on worthless military hardware ). Or, you can understand that infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible.
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Since I first wrote on this, we have officially peaked in global production of gold and silver. And just last year, fracking oil and gas. Most fracking wells decline 80% first year, even in the sweet spots. You can expect a very quick decline of fracking. And guess what you need to extract the only remaining gold and silver which is the crap ore, very diffuse ore. Yeah, lots of energy. This makes the low price of silver ( gold is low, relatively, but silver is what you and I can afford ) under extreme time pressure. Act now, or forever more hold your peace.
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Having said that, do you REALLY need precious metals? No, no you do not. I advocate having several years of property taxes in silver, but I'm not talking about a $300k McMansion. I'm thinking of your junk land where one ounce of silver can pay two or three years. It isn't a terrible idea, silver for property tax, to counteract inflation ( selling the coins to get cash to pay them ). But some of you are living way above your pay grade, so your mileage may vary. Just having a few ounces of silver isn't the worst idea, to bet on its upside. But all in all, you don't NEED precious metals.
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PM's are emphatically NOT for trade during the collapse. That will get you tortured and killed. PM's are for transferring wealth THROUGH the coming dark ages. You can barter with it, WITHIN your tribe only, but that really isn't needed, is it? Tribes are communists, and not market economies. Money isn't needed. Calories are. Food is so much more valuable that PM's ( with ammo a close second ). Since precious metal is ONLY good for times when trade is practiced, you need to worry about food. Once you have so much food you cannot find another storage spot, enough ammunition to give Mars a celestial boner, THEN and only then concern yourself with precious metals.
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As I said, of course, a small bet now, if you can afford to waste it as a wager, is to buy four ounces ( I just pick that amount arbitrarily, an even C-note most of us can afford to lose ). My contention is that with almost all silver used in industrial purposes ( which almost without exception isn't economically viable to recycle-even if not in terms of wages, then from an energy use standpoint ), silver is criminally under priced right now.
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I can't give you a definitive amount, as I keep hearing different figures, all from sources I think as credible, but there could be LESS silver above ground than gold. Or, at most, only twice the amount of silver as gold, above ground, in coin or bars. Or jewelry, obviously. A side note on that-buy industrial silver products NOW, such as solar panels. They will all be endangered. And overcapacity is seeing prices at fire sale levels. But getting back to silver bullion, the price SHOULD, no guarantees obviously but I feel confident, should increase no less than fifty times, in today's purchasing power dollars. That does NOT take inflation into account, only production.
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Nor does it take into account the end of production post-oil, nor the current banker price suppression. In short, a few silver coins now will be like buying gold at the turn of our century, with even more potential upside ( note, I am NOT a gold bug. I think only carbon fuels or colonization allowed our one off gold currency economies ( gold was used for international trade, but had nothing to be with a states economy person to person. It was too rare. I see no return to that as we run out of oil. This is just a very generous gift from the gods, usable once this lifetime ).
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I would wager 99% of survivalists ( not even accounting for preppers, who are the Survivalist Lights, the Quasi-survivalists, the Poser Survivalists ) do not have enough food for the apocalypse. As such, I cannot see many of you having so much in extra funds that you are sitting around with wads of cash wondering how to invest it so you don't lose it to inflation. Buy more food, better food, then more of that, then a better storage solution for all that food. Don't spend too much on guns and real estate. Invest in food.
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And yes, when I say food I mean you also include a means of protecting it and a location MORE secure. Food is cheap. Storage containers for it less so. The location those storage containers are on, even less affordable. And training and supplies to secure that location? Near impossible for most of us. The price is cheap, for security, but the will is almost completely lacking. I don't mean blowing through pallets of ammo in training for close quarters ninja combat. But rather the fortitude to live out in the boonies, hermitage style.
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But let us not get sidetracked. If you want a really cheap precious metal, you can always collect pennies. Pre-1982 are copper ( in '82, the copper content was drastically cut over the year, so you don't know how much you are getting. I avoid '82's entirely ). All it takes is slapping your fat worthless lazy children up aside their heads, placing them at the kitchen table and having them sort through your pennies. When was the last time any of the bloated electronic game playing oxygen wasters chipped in for rent or groceries? Put them to work. Copper is crap, now, but in the future minted coins will be used in trade ( if trade even happens ).
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You can forget silver coins in retail circulation. That source completely dried up before Y2K ( I was in retail, then the casino, all the way through 2006. I looked. They simply were no longer there as they had been in the 90's ). You could try to duplicate the claims that fifty cent pieces still had silver coins left in them, but I have a hard time believing there would be any left, within such a short supply. And this isn't even accounting for the fact that all this wastes your time. Of which little is left. I'm not saying, become a prepper training ninja. That is another subject I don't buy into.
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Just don't divert your focus away from REAL prepping. Like, storing food. Looking for a rural job. Even learning a second trade. Precious metals are nice. But rarely needed. Like FLIR scopes and MRE's, they should be at the bottom of your priority list.
( .Y. )
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42 comments:

  1. Solid points Jim, again, thanxs for flashlighting the impracticality of being too all in queer on precious metals, of any forms. There is cross marketing hype spouted off from the sales preachers about how silver and gold investments will allow you to "survive and thrive" in "down" times. Gag! Collapse, grid downs or combat conflicts render that medium of exchange useless and mortally dangerous. Like a unicorn cavalry redoubter is really going to bicycle (multi hundred dollar bmx unit, the best of course) or gallop on down (white or gray horse, signifying piousness of rider) to the tax office and pay taxes with that 100 oz. Ignot wrapped and strapped on board. (B.S.) p.s. taxes on anything other than bare land will skyrocket with the levies attached (by new gov't-powers) to that property to pay for the new refugees crowding your kids schools and paying for local strongman armies.

    A research story for extreme example is the Ted Binion case from Vegas. Buried silver in Pahrump j.i.c. / murdered over it and the culprits: (slut girlfriend and the handymany friend that helped buried it, who would have thought?) Teachable lesson.....

    Don't get the gold fever and silver silliness greed diseases that are very injurious afflictions to your larger overall survivalism.

    Stay Frosty.

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    1. Of course, one wonders if bare land tax will also skyrocket. Although the county courthouse is usually a good target for those pissed off over that issue

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    2. Screwered if it is farm or commercial usage land where they can go after the owners whom have other assets to be jeopardized by non compliance. Dirt squats that can decamp and evac like t.v. refugees will be passed over as not worth it. They will lean on farmer Brown cause his family is all attached there etc. I think after the latest brigadere general take down, with impunity, folks may be born again law and order, render unto caeser, and hoorah boosters really quick after a few close to home field example demonstrations. (Gee! House exploded last night. Fire Marshall Bob sezs was a gas explosion, o.k. except an all electric house. Hmm?) No Poking The Bear new paradigm comrades.

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    3. Why do you suppose it's called "tax" rather than say, birthday cake? Thieves are always on the lookout to find more ways to steal. If you have it they want it and are going to find ways to take it. The solution to this historical malady is set in stone - high speed metal through bone. It always works.

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    4. 12:59-Bill, not Bob. If you are channeling the other Jim
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      GS-did you say we have cake?

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    5. Old rumor: "Let them eat cake!"
      Back then, I think cake was bread.
      IOW, Let them eat crumbs.

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    6. One of the arguments for a Land Value Tax to replace the current mess is that it's one that can't be avoided. The land owner pays the tax or forfeits the land which is sold to someone who can / will pay the tax. There's no bailing on payment. "oo, I'll just take my company to Mexico". Good. Do that. The land stays here though

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    7. I didn't know land tax COULD be avoided.

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    8. GS-I heard once, rumor unconfirmed, the translation was for the burnt bread pieces in the oven the baker traditionally gave to the destitute

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  2. The money quote -

    "I would wager 99% of survivalists ( not even accounting for preppers, who are the Survivalist Lights, the Quasi-survivalists, the Poser Survivalists ) do not have enough food for the apocalypse. As such, I cannot see many of you having so much in extra funds that you are sitting around with wads of cash wondering how to invest it so you don't lose it to inflation. Buy more food, better food, then more of that, then a better storage solution for all that food. Don't spend too much on guns and real estate. Invest in food."

    This is why you're the number one survivalist / prepper website.

    "Food is First. Always" Bison Prepper

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    1. "Food Is First" Dammit people, that better be on my headstone. Of course, that might invite people to dig me up and add me to the stewpot

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    2. Lose the "is", then print this on t-shirts @ $20 a piece:

      FOOD
      I
      R
      S
      T

      And maybe an appropriate graphic, like a big fat wheat burger.

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  3. Sometimes 2 heads are better than one. As appalling as most people are, it can be beneficial for rural folks to create loose networks of like minded people (tribes with elbow room) that can facilitate each others needs. No one can be an expert at everything. If you need shoes for the horse you don't need to be a blacksmith if you know someone that already is, for example. Same with food, medical, shelter building, etc. Jack of all trades are the most flexible "git-r-dun" people, not afraid to get dirty. Able and willing to swing a hammer, hoe a field, hold the other end of the leg when the broken femur is set. Everyone will be tested endlessly in ways yet imaginable and you won't know your net value until you're already in it.

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    1. My net value should be increased by my shining hair, but people don't know a good thing when they see it. Agree with you, on one level, but one wonders if it gets bad enough, to what level do we turn on each other?

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    2. ghostsniper - that was the theory involving the rural place I lived on, but instead it was a conglomeration of special snowflake Burning Man, money-burning ex-suburbanites, general weirdos, all apparently convinced that manual work of any type would kill them. I've looked around on Google Maps satellite view and street view and the place appears to have even more people freeloading there and by the even more cluttered and squalid appearance, I'd assume druggies have been added to the mix.

      The only way to find that ideal "tribe with elbow room" might be among the Amish and us normies can't just walk onto that scene.

      The "git-r-dun" types will hopefully survive and after 99.9% of the population has died off, hopefully will have survived disproportionately.

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    3. Those which have no professed skills will undoubtedly have to rely on others. Consequently they must give up something to get what they need others to for them.
      Such is the lot, in the life of a man with no skills.
      So if you have little to offer , in the way of skillset. You'd best have a deep larder !
      Accompanied by a good arsenal !
      But if you don't have good shooting skills and pre staged defences in your POD. YOU B FUCKED...

      I don't care how good your hair is otherwise...

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    4. Hating on the hair...it just ain't right. Sad panda :(

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    5. We all ,Got to embrace the suck.
      The more ya train , makes for less suck...

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    6. I can't argue with that. Which makes me sad also LOL

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    7. Hey Alex, are you the 4th commentor under this prepper article?

      https://medium.com/s/story/the-surprisingly-solid-mathematical-case-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437

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  4. So Lord Bison, if there is the great die-off as you say (only 30K survivors in USA you've said) and violence is an everyday occurrence how are PMs suitable to pass on to future generations? Such high death count and WROL will almost entirely wipe out paradigm of centralized bureaucratic tax leaving state. Besides, how/why will FedNotes still be acceptable?
    Who or what will redeem PMs for FedNotes? You think a local coin shop will survive Ragnorak? Do you really want to known as the guy with a stash of silver in PA days???

    Folks would be better off with 10-15 extra shovels of various types, hatchets/axes, grub hoes, footwear & water purification items.

    There will enough jewellery and dental fillings to be yanked from the dead to satisfy any possible tax collector or future generations. Just like all the Central Asian kurgans and Egyptian pyramids looted over the years or Iraqi/Syrian museums.

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    1. You are mixing and matching the progression of collapse to be contrary. All your questions are inflammatory. I expect a better level of disagreement from you. That's okay, if you are just having a bad hair day. Cash comes in handy first, after unemployment. Then, cashing in PM's to pay property tax with hyperinflation, increased taxation and unemployment. THEN, you bury the PM's for future generations. And I thought I made it clear you don't need PM's as much as you need everything else, first. Only then do excess funds get turned into Future Generation Wealth Transfer. I still love you, man.

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    2. Maybe a few oldsters have gold fillings, but almost nobody gets those now. Oldsters probably aren't going to be out engaging in combat far from their residence where you can harvest their teeth after you "win." Have you considered that once a few shots are fired, people will be behind cover, and one of the biggest available targets will be the head? How are you going to clean a mouth out that's soaked with blood and brain matter to look for a possible gold tooth? If you find it well after a fight, it will be loaded with disease-laden bacteria. No thanks.

      At a pawn shop that I occasionally visit, there is a steady stream of customers looking to sell their jewelry. Everyone from people who look like they took it in a burglary to completely normal looking "soccer moms." People are selling off all their assets now trying to make ends meet. If you leave your perimeter for whatever reason, are you going to leave your wedding ring or other jewelry on to reflect sunlight and attract thieves?

      My opinion of the viability of scavenging gold fillings and jewelry after an event is near 0%.
      Romans 14:11

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    3. A lot of the problem today is nobody saves or reduces budgets. Always consuming, faster and faster. What is jewelry to these people? They only care about how it made them feel buying it, not the value it represents as wealth.

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    4. "...it will be loaded with disease-laden bacteria. No thanks."

      Never dressed an animal, eh? You will, and you'll get to liking it. Just works out that way when the belly button meets up with the backbone. Belly always wins.

      Stock up on nitrile gloves - get the right size - too small will be painful, too big will be a pain. Grab the head with the big pair of pliers, use another pair to open the yap, dump a can of water in the hole to rinse it out so you can see whats in there, yank the PM out with another pair of pliers, drop it in a bucket, move onto the next client.

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    5. Gold too valuable to be squeamish around germs.

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  5. re:
    the 'how do you see me' department

    I spent a couple days in town with an ill 74-year old friend.
    She lives in a 'manufacture home' in a 55-and-older 'manufacture home community'.
    That was the first time in decades I consumed city water with the chemicals and what-not.
    Yuck.
    That was also the first time in decades I was eight-feet from neighbors on all four sides.
    Double yuck.

    But I'm writing about something else.
    Her nincompoop 20-year old granddaughter is Caucasian.
    Deeply white skin.
    Strawberry blond, but dyes it Black©.
    Her ex-boyfriend stays the night "...but we are just friends, we don't do anything...".
    Ex-boyfriend is a 'amateur rapper' with demos out, and you guessed it, is Black©.

    Granddaughter lives in a storage shed gramma modeled into a 8x8 detached bedroom.
    Granddaughter -- her new adult name might be 'Jade' -- refuses to look for work.
    Refuses to get out of bed before 1pm, then needs a five-hour nap on the couch to gather her strength.

    But I'm writing about something else.
    'Jade' owns a cat.
    Apparently, the shed gramma converted for 'Jade' is too small for a cat-litter tray.
    Natch, the cat lives in the house.
    Natch, granny feeds it, cleans up after it, and deals with it clawing the furniture.

    And, according to granny "...right on schedule..." around 8pm, deeply Caucasian 'Jade' needs to borrow granny's car to run to the store for a few hours to get some essentials.
    The essentials tend to be, not food nor cat-litter nor toilet-paper nor anything for the house, but make-up and phony eye-lashes and fourteen kinds of shampoos.

    But I'm writing about something else.
    Granddaughter keeps the television set going 'round-the-clock.
    The last time I owned a television set was sometime last century; I have zero interest in televisionprogramming.
    At first, I was insulted by the lowest-common-denominator televisionprogramming.
    And then, I discovered cookingprogramming with your host Guy Fieri at his Texas ranch.
    I could see me doing this.
    No, not the us$160 monthly bill for the cableprogramming including WorldWideWeb.
    No, not the granddaughter.
    The cookingprogramming, bringing joy to potential cooks globally.

    But I'm writing about something else.
    I want your honest opinion.
    Do you think I am 'judgemental' because I think EVERY MILLENNIAL AND HER GRANNY IS AN IDJIT?

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    1. Only if it is judgmental to notice reality. Which, today, I think it is :)

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    2. Jade is a mudshark and granny is desperate for for fambly.
      She will die lonely. Elderly life and death in 21st century america.

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  6. I have some silver that is buried. Once when I was hurting for cash I tried to sale some of it, but ended up keeping it. They will sell you bullion at just over spot, and if you try to sale they will only buy at way under spot. I prefer to be raped by a big breasted, coked up stripper and not the overweight basement dweller working part time at the coin shop.

    My precious metals are rebar and fence posts. Metal tools and such. The kind of metal that actually has some use and at this time can be picked up for pennies on the dollar.

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    1. Most likely, by the time you must sell silver, the demand will be through the roof and it goes way over spot for lack of supply. When you are violated by said stripper, and get done with a good cry and soak in the tub, please call her for me. I'll even pretend to put up a fight.

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    2. Could her name be 'Jade'?
      If you like 'em obese dumb lazy with pounds o' make-up, I could arrange an introduction.
      It will be up to you to secure the secret entry code to her 'shed' (hint: she keeps 'it' unlocked).

      I don't judge... but I think you can do better.

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    3. Must be pleasantly plump, not obese. The difference, to me, is proportionality. Really, I'm just joshing. Me and NOL are doing better than ever, at near the five year mark. Color me surprised more than anyone. Now, if this reply was directed at DG, rather than me, just consider the above bragging on my Significant Other.

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  7. There's a hobby called "coin roll hunting" where you get rolls of coins from your bank and then hunt through them for silver or for rare mint marks etc. There are plenty of videos on YouTube about this. I can't believe people are still finding silver but they claim to be.

    I've been saving copper pennies for years and the ol' McCann's Oats can is getting pretty heavy.

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    1. Seems there would be more fibs, lies and fake news than actual silver. Mint marks, perhaps

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    2. Here's a data point to support your statement.

      In 2008 I lost my job and was unemployed for several months. To help pass the time and in an effort to bring in some income I used my savings to buy sealed bags of quarters from my bank. The bags contained $1,000 in quarters (i.e., 4,000 quarters per bag). I examined the quarters one-by-one looking for pre-65 90% silver ones. When I was finished with one bag I took it back to the bank and ordered another. I did this five times, searching through a total of 20,000 quarters.

      I found one - count 'em, ONE - silver quarter, very worn and dated 1936 (no premium for rarity or condition).

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    3. Damn, that is beyond sad ( the results, not your efforts ).

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  8. Depends on the intensity of collapse (viability of trading gold and silver). There's a spectrum - and in some of them, gold and silver will be fantastic for you in this life.

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    1. Sure. It's easy to scale down from Worse Case, not so easy to scale up.

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