Monday, January 6, 2020

more alpha strategy


MORE ALPHA STRATEGY
Here is the original book ( click HERE for PDF ), “Alpha Strategy” by John Pugsley. It was copyrighted 1980, so don't expect a lot of the economics to be relevant. Hell, I don't even know how much of the commodities stockpiling is usable anymore. He was talking about, mostly, American made goods and now it is all Chinese. Or worse than Chinese ( it seems most of the shoe manufacturing is swiftly moving over to Indonesia right now, for instance. Yes, Muzzies are making your shoes, infidel dog ). But the grandfather of the concept must be acknowledged.
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For instance, if I died before the apocalypse, and who knows if I will as things are looking spicy, I would want future writers to throw me a bone. Yes, he was the only voice crying out in a wilderness of optimistic hubris, no semi-auto, deep stock wheat, junk land, Peak Oil, fracking fable, frugal prepping, Jim Washer. Not that anyone will, the bastards. Some cheese dingus will steal all my good ideas and pass it off on his own, probably thumping the bible as he hawks FLIR scopes to the unwashed masses.
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The Alpha Strategy is simply short hand for “buy now, brown cow, for inflation will see their price increase tomorrow”. I bring this up in response to a minion comment, where it was written that even Disaster Dan's ( two week preppers ) and Fracking Fanboys still needed to prep against inflation. And, since pensions aren't looking too bright for the future, retirement. Everybody used to know, “pay off the mortgage before retirement, dumb ass”. That WAS common sense. Now everyone is like the idiot financing his car for seven years, perpetually in debt.
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I don't care who you are. I don't care how much an ex-wife or the bankers or little green men from Mars screwed you over, you NEVER go Full Retard and have rent or a mortgage for retirement. Nor should it ever enter your mind that a car payment is a good idea. You should have no debt for retirement, I don't care if you went from suburbia heaven to junk land hell. You do whatever it takes to avoid debt and almost every bill. I know this is not as much of an iron clad rule as it used to be. Hell, neither is marriage. We are all, “yeah, but...”. Always an excuse.
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Now, I can see getting a divorce. Perhaps the bitch only put out once a month. Or, your husband drinks beer like it is water, and is a miserable bastard. Everyone should deserve a shot at happiness. But you never divorce if the financial cost is too high. Well, the males rarely have a choice on that, but I'm speaking of post-kids. At least you almost never have to pay alimony anymore, what with all women working. If she doesn't work, and alimony might be possible, here's an idea. Start her up a business.
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A few years prior to dumping her ass, start her on a business, selling what you would want to buy. Say, silver coins. Now, in the next town over rent a private mail box and use another name and buy silver from her regularly ( yes, I know there are laws requiring reporting “stacking”. My old coin dealer in the mid '00's told me, “don't come in on a schedule and don't buy the same thing, and there is no paperwork”. Beware of this issue and work around it ). Now there is a record of sales, of her income ( have a high dealer mark-up ). The judge sees a viable business with proven income. And you aren't out too much investment.
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Anyway, back on track. No matter who you are and what future you foresee, you know just as God made little green apples, there WILL be inflation, and your retirement will take a hit from that, as will your weekly shopping trips. Going “Alpha Strategy” means you are always LESS affected by inflation. No one can escape, and I cannot even believe some folks see deflation on the horizon. What is the ONLY two things going down in price? Food, mostly, and electronics, usually. And those are subject to caveats.
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Food, adjusted for inflation, is cheaper than MOST other items. For now. We saw a good bout of food inflation in 2009, and then a trickle as “package shrinkage” increased, but that was, again, MOSTLY, processed foods. Make your own meals, from scratch, and food has not been this cheap, inflation adjusted, for around twenty years. Produce might be up, as production moved from California to Mexico, but you don't need out of season produce. Learn to eat sauerkraut in the winter instead of oranges. And we should all be gardening anyway.
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Not to say food won't skyrocket in price. It always has periods when it does so, regardless of how dedicated to Too Cheap To Meter the powers that be are. But at least bless them for understanding revolution only happens during hunger ( for the most part ). But the point is that, like overseas oil and fracking gas, food is SUBSIDIZED. It isn't “capitalism” or “'Muricanism”, it is straight up socialism, the government gifting the poor cheaper than market prices. There, see? Socialism isn't just for Venezuela anymore.
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Electronics are a bit more difficult. Yes, they are built overseas. But not everything overseas keeps going down in price. Auto's don't ( although to be fair, there is a lot of politics and tariffs involved ). Sure, guns went down in price, but that is mostly due to quality reduction ( the AR's decreased mostly from overcapacity, but politics and a saturated market will kill off many current manufactures, raising the prices again. Get 'em cheap while you can ). You can pretty much say that except for TV's, computers and cell phones, inflation is always here screwing us.
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I think a lot of electronics deflation is overcapacity and never ending demand. Not necessarily by consumers, because high end phone demand doesn't survive pink slips. But by corporations, always buying more chips and electronics to replace workers with robots. Every day, you go to work and do three workers jobs for half the money one worker used to make ( inflation adjusted ). Every day, your boss comes into work and has meeting on how to replace you with HAL. He only seems like a nice guy because he is a reptile underneath ( see the TV show “V”, sorry-a remake, now showing on Tubi ).
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You can take Trend Inflation to the bank. Even if I'm 100% wrong on the doomer porn, and your precious Stairstep Collapse comes to pass, even if I'm full of more crap than a holiday goose, inflation will dry hump you all day long, every year, until the sweet release of death. Even if you don't deep larder wheat and steel case ammo, you would be foolish to not follow The Alpha Strategy. Sure, it's a pain in the ass, as are all methods of saving money. Oh, boo-hoo, Sad Panda :( Get over yourself, you ain't THAT special that you get a ( robot ) maid and butler. Continued tomorrow.
( .Y. )
( today's related Amazon link click HERE )
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39 comments:

  1. Another reason for cheap electronics is to get people to pay the increasing rates of internet and streaming. Like the corner dealer giving you a taste until your habit becomes established.

    Living the frugal way and stockpiling also gives you options if an unexpected bill pops up, like a broken bone. Instead of worrying what bill goes unpaid, you simply stop stockpiling for a while and use it, saving the grocery bill for medical payments, maybe break loose some silver. Sure does beat sitting in the dark or hiding the car from the repo guy. I know, a lot of folks just skip the medical bill, I just used it as an easy example.

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    1. I think they are getting more aggressive collecting those medical bills now, also.

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    2. Nope.

      Their still not consider against your credit score.

      Plus, they still can't put a lien against anything either.

      You ignore them for a while as they sell it off ( only getting about half or a third)and goes though several different creditors and then make a low ball offer.

      Most times they take it.

      When they change it to a regular debt, then you know things are getting spicy!

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    3. I stand corrected. Could have sworn I heard a few stories, but of course, third hand sources.

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    4. A lot of people don't understand that medical bills are different from normal debt.

      Oh, they can call you and threaten you with court judgements and such, but they relie on people not knowing that nothing can be done.

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    5. I didn't know, that's for sure.

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    6. I'm back working as a deputy. Deputies among other leo responsibilities also serve papers. I have seen a large increase in hospitals suing folks for unpaid bills. Once they get a judgement the can garnish your wages, or take your assets.

      Don't count on not paying bills. Not just hospitals, loan companies, banks, they are stepping up the pressure.

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    7. Thank you. I guess you just need to know, no matter what the law says, the judge can decide in favor of his boys. If you don't have money, that ain't you.

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  2. Inflation is the creeping charlie force to be considered in escalating costs for supplies and why to buy up today for tomorrow. Correct, right on.

    However there also a "Eventuality" force at play to factor into your strategies. That being an incident that occurs that cost bigly money above your stipend income or a cut into emergency funds. Say your tranny goes out and you have to right now pay and fix it. Your pre bought, pre positioned supplies allows no required cash outlays for anything for a long time to allow redirection of funds to another "departments" needs. Just replenish stocks and regroup for the next hiccup in the slow collapse interim we are puttering in. And p.s. pay up extra on utilities to build up a credit balance (6-9 months as example) so you can skip paying a light bill for a few moths while recovering from scrotum surgery costs. As an example, just saying.

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    1. I can't really disagree because in this case we ARE talking slow collapse, but Dog how I hate the idea of using apocalypse food for day to day grocery use.

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    2. Out of work, injury, trauma that has financial repercussions are your mini collapse to deal with before being homeless or tossed out onto one's arse. Ha! Be hardcorp and donate plasma with the bumsquads and use payments from that debit card into stockpiling moar food!

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    3. Junk land is the only real insurance you need, at least for current environment

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  3. "Yes, Muzzies are making your shoes, infidel dog”



    Well, hopefully they’re not the same kind of shoes that the shoe bomber dude was wearing, with a remote activated ROM chip. While we’re on the topic, it goes doubly, that you might wish to avoid purchasing neck scarves and hats from these same folks, if you catch my drift :D

    Was watching a vid the other day (Prepper Princess). She mentioned something about the husband of a co-worker, coming into work one day, and being informed that he will not be receiving the pension, that he paid into for 30 years. They are totally screwed as a result. They were relying heavily on it, and now it’s gone. The co-worker became a surrogate mother in order to make ends meet.

    Guns have gone down indeed, but muzzleloaders have gone way up. Who cares you say? Well, remember that as of this point in time, muzzleloaders ship right through the mail to most states, with no hassle. Important to those that got into a heated argument with the wife one evening, and that misdemeanor face slap, resulted in a lifetime ban from gun ownership (Another argument in favor of not getting married in a modern western society). Also, upcoming ammo restrictions (Such as in Commiefornia) will have no impact on you, along with never having to worry about brass, or reloading equipment. So am I saying that survivalists should adopt muzzleloaders as a primary weapon? No, of course I’m not. But it certainly wouldn’t be a terrible idea to have a few.

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    1. If nothing else, research zip-guns and buy the appropriate ammo now for the common size pipe you choose.

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    2. Any cohabitation or any children with that person makes it a domestic arrangement for determining if it goes into domestic violence category. Like curse words of certain stripes are hate crimes. Just say no and avoid them. Leave the money on the nightstand and split afterwards, leaving no evidentiary.

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    3. re:
      rent-a-uterus

      In Eugene Oregon, my friend Alexandra is near to paying off her farm mortgage through surrogating.
      She is on her third fetal material.
      Everybody involved seems happy with the outcome.

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    4. Until later in life when those pregnancies show up in wear and tear. I mean, bravo, well done. No debt farm is a super deal. One just wonders if she knows the later price to pay

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    5. 10:12- are you saying hookers and blow are cheaper in the long run? Perhaps the bankers are smarter than us.

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    6. "If nothing else, research zip-guns and buy the appropriate ammo now for the common size pipe you choose.”


      Yes, that’s good advice. I mentioned the muzzleloaders, because some folks have poor mechanical skills, and also the brass case bottleneck, and not needing reloading equipment. It would also be out of the ability of most people to produce a six shot cap and ball revolver, so the homebuilt would mostly be a single shot affair.

      @10:12 AM. Yes, I should have expanded it to include any domestic situation.

      @LargeMarge. I believe that she (PP) said that the co-worker earned around $25k for the rental of said uterus, and that she was on her second rental term. She did say that there were some serious risks involved, but she did not elaborate on what they were?

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    7. Just watched the PP video. She mentioned pregnancy medical complications only.

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    8. "Leave the money on the nightstand and..."
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      ...go home and let that toxic brew in your piss pipe ferment. No thanks.

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    9. Not me. As far as I can tell, the "juice" gets on other things before it gets on the pipe. I believe the notion of wearing a raincoat may cut down on "some" of the STD's but I am not naive enough to believe it will eliminate the threat. Ever rolled over on the wet spot?

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    10. Can't deny your points. I've never been a one night stand guy anyway, so I don't care about those details.

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    11. Yes,but minions come for ur wisdom.

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  4. If you see and boots/shoes made in Vietnam buy em and stock up before the shtf . Unreal hand made quality like we used to get from Canadian Sorels before they started making them in China. If you hear I'm dead get with the old woman . She'll be selling my stash .

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    1. Got old timey Sorels trash picking-they just need new inserts but otherwise should outlast me.

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  5. When you really look into buying stuff that's going to last you a life time it brings home how much stuff is tat. Nothing is built to last.

    Look at pedowoods movies. Not worth watching even if they're free.

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    1. End of the Industrial/Oil era. Nothing to do but suffer through it

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  6. Was going to buy a firearm at a store and the only one they had was a super long barrel. I ask if they could order me a shorter barrel model if I paid cash now and would come pickup when they acquired it. No, you have to order on the website with a credit card. I don't have a credit card. I don't understand the difference. Getting harder to spend money when they won't take it.

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    1. Go to a mom & pop gun store without corporate BS? Yes, you pay extra.

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    2. Shot gun with too-long barrel? Adjust to correct length with home tools. "Correct length" is a half inch longer than minimum length, so you don't need to file a BATF form with fees for mfg SBS.

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    3. I could see if a used gun, but pay all that money and then bubba engineer? I couldn't do it.

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  7. have always carried in my pocket a few silver dollars from back when,just the later ones &it's a constant reminder of THERE'S NO INFLATION bullshit,most younger ones have never even seen a real silver dollar,especially up here in b.c.we've got the LOONIE,bout the size of the susie b that went over really well down south,RIGHT! last i heard the mint still had bags of them looking for a home.gonna get interesting for sure.DAN

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    1. Then there was the even worse Saqqawajeewa or whoever the hell was on the "gold" dollar coin. No one is interested in them.

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  8. Interesting link that fits with this blog post


    http://m.startribune.com/for-tech-weary-midwest-farmers-40-year-old-tractors-now-a-hot-commodity/566737082/

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    1. Without reading the article, I'd say Deer shot itself in the foot, switching to the "software profits mode" like Boeing tried to do.

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  9. Off topic:
    Orlov predictions for the decade of 2020s:
    http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2020/01/predictions-for-2020s.html?m=1

    "A particular canary in the coal mine is likely be the fracking industry. It never really made any money, but it did win the US a reprieve from the ravages of Peak Oil. And now production from fracked wells is peaking, depletion rates are going up, fracking companies are going bankrupt and the newly drilled wells are less oily and more gassy, with the gas not particularly high-quality or valuable. At some point during this decade the US will again be forced to rely on importing most of its oil and gas."

    Good article.

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    1. Sure, when I say it I'm an ass, when Orlov says it he's a genius. Everyone is part of the problem, buying foreign advisers instead of domestic :) It was a good article, if short.

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