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Thursday, November 24, 2016

how's that olduvai theory working out for you? 1 of 2


HOW’S THAT OLDUVAI THEORY WORKING OUT FOR YOU?

Before we begins today’s joyous meandering trip into another episode of “This Is Your Future”, let me quote from the article which inspired this work:

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This impending sudden energy curtailment will guarantee that the collapse of global industrial civilisation will be complete within 15 years (which is an exceedingly conservative estimate – Dr Louis Arnoux believes a 10 year timeline is more likely and I fear he is probably right). This does NOT mean we have a 10 or 15 year window to prepare for an offgrid fossil fuel free lifestyle, it means global industrial collapse will be complete by then.

Those fortunate enough to be able to prepare, have at best a 2 to 3 year window of opportunity, however it is possible that if global financial collapse occurs sooner, then our ability to act will be lost sooner.

POST PEAK OIL SLIDES FOR DINERS

Published November 12, 2016 | By Geoffrey Chia

Doomsteaddiner.net

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And, once again for another unwelcome diversion from the exciting wisdom I myself alone am capable of, in case you are new here you might be unaware of the Olduvai Theory which is looking to be less of a theory every day and more like a natural law you had best treat with the seriousness of Gravity, the link:


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Okay, the above article gives a date that is pretty spot on what the Olduvai Theory states, that the Oil Age is going to be 1930 to 2030, with the later date seeing the same volume of oil as the earlier, but with far more population the per capita oil use will be too little to sustain our ability to continue with Business As Usual.  The Olduvai Theory gave 1979 as the global per capita BTU peak.  35 years on, every swinging cheese dingus on the planet has less energy to use ( conflicts through the entire Oil Age have been about some populations using a lot more energy than others.  Per Capita use has declined even as a very few nation states have monopolized the control and use of the majority of the energy.  Alas, it isn’t just Bush Bitch Africans starving to get us enough energy for our wasteful use, the American poor have been surrendering more of their share as of late.  Remember, it isn’t the VOLUME of liquid that is pumped but the energy it contains after extraction costs ).

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Also remember, the Olduvai Theory is about 25 years old.  This doomer stuff isn’t exactly rocket surgery.  More common sense coupled with the rare courage to complete the math to its logical conclusion.  Way before Peak Oil got popular and long ago prior to the obvious crash in our energy supplies EROI ( tar sands and fracking giving it up at a-wait for sarcasm!-WHOPPING 5 to 1 and ethanol even lower.  In 1930 our EROI domestic supply was 100 to 1 ), some guy said, hey, energy per head has been declining for ten years and here is the math which decides your future.  Hey, I hate math with the rest of normal people.  Only folks that have their brains wired a certain way can understand that algebra and crap.  But I can sure add and subtract with the best of them, even without taking off my shoes.  Not being a Business Major, I actually understand that you can’t have infinite growth on a finite planet ( Peak Prosperity was a wonderful pioneer in applying this to economics and popularizing it, although sadly after popularity came Optimism Whitewashing so that the masses could be frightened only enough to titillate them rather than scaring them into concrete action.  The fate of most writers on a similar trajectory, sadly ).

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Once you understand Infinite Growth/Finite Planet, and the only reason most people DON’T understand it is simply because the don’t WANT to ( for the humor unimpaired, those who enjoy a bit of comic relief with their civilization collapse, the TV show “Archer” is usually slinging out the line “can’t, or won’t?”.  Well, along with “danger zone” and others, but the first one is the best way to cut clear all the bullspit ), it’s easy to understand this Survivalism stuff, but first you need to look into the abyss.  Which brings us back to the start of the article.  Not to once again preach Prep Yesterday! But to ask about the time frame mentioned.  Timing the collapse is not only impossible, it is a fools game indeed.  Yet, a schedule is a very useful tool.  Too useful to ignore.

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As I’ve discussed previously, a schedule might give you the appearance of a Stick Up Ass uptight Fun Black Hole, but not only does it increase your productivity, it is also more and more mandatory as you age since it reinforces a failing memory.  Without a schedule you are usually adrift in life, too easily giving in to indulgences and laziness.  My cardio exercise is before the work day starts.  Period.  The only thing stopping it is drenching rain and that isn’t exactly common here in the high desert ( in the lower desert, you usually have Turd Washers, but up in the mountains they are far less common.  More moisture is captured in snow, plus, pussy ass old people like the low desert for the heat.  Avoid the low deserts because of perpetual decades long droughts and lots and lots of worthless population ).  If I kept moving my exercise time, it would just be making excuses and not get done.  Sleeping in due to sleep deprivation would usually win out over weekend exercise, for instance, or being too physically exhausted after work.  Many lazy people just disregard folks with a schedule as anal retentive, which of course is true, but life isn’t just about relaxing.  It is earning relaxation to appreciate it.

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So, not only must you schedule your current life to increase your prepping performance ( good for exercise, obviously, but for grocery shopping to avoid impulse buys, for useful hobby time, research, etc. ) but you need to try to schedule the velocity and severity of the occurring collapse.  Yes, impossible, and yes, a fools errand, but any effort is better than none.  How else do you schedule your stockpiling?  Your major life decisions such as when to move out of the city?  Far too many times we have heard the paranoid call for the immediate collapse, granted.  But one time is all it takes for them to be right, negating the importance of all the previous false alarms.  So, tomorrow, how probably is that two to three year timeframe prior to our being ass deep in zombies?

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4 comments:

  1. Sitting here smelling the turkey bird smells from the kitchen and salivating like Pavlov's dogs. I acknowledge that this day of gluttony will be among the last but I am determined to live in denial until at least Saturday.enjoy your earned relaxation. Signed, pussy ass old person a.k.a. the rat

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    1. Ha! I was thinking of old bastards in Phoenix, as I had just finished reading a climate change book focusing on the southwest. I had totally forgotten my Ol' Bro down Vegas way! Enjoy the day. Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we battle zombies!

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  2. Interesting that the Olduvai math and the more complex Limits to Growth model came up with similar years for when things get interesting, roughly 2025 a 2030.

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    1. And the Olduvai is nice in that it evaded such widespread controversy ( you don't need to wade through the denials while searching for info ).

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