length of empire

LENGTH OF EMPIRE

An easy quick read is “The Fate Of Empires And Search For Survival” by Sir John Glubb ( usually by being knighted, at least prior to the embarrassing Elton John, it was generally acknowledged that you weren’t a complete idiot ) which you can easily find in a PDF file by Google-ing the title and author, followed by “PDF”.  Sometimes this stuff is simple.  I didn’t read anything too new, as I had come across this material in a different form in the book “War And Peace And War” by another ( which is the only affordable book by the author as the others are, from what I understand, very heavy on the math.  W&P&W is the authors concession to the general reading public, and quite good-I’ve read it at least twice ).  If you want the condensed version, just download Fate Of Empires.  Very simply, all empires last about ten generations ( Rome is explained by dividing it into two empires, first Republican and then Imperial.  I‘m not sure if that is cheating or not ), and the general direction of their decline is pretty similar.  They all start out with an outburst of energy, the Have-Nots of a lesser group hungry for wealth and power and willing to take chances to get it.

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The next phase is conquest, consolidating the gains from the initial outburst.  Following this is Commerce, as trade always follows a monopoly on power.  Affluence comes next, which is the beginning of the end, as all the energy and motivation is swamped by decadence and luxury, laziness and lack of risk taking.  Simply, a nomad warrior sees the city riches, fights his way to them, assumes the lifestyle of the conquered and becomes what he fought against.  Don’t despair the lazy videogamer of today while celebrating the rugged youth who went off to fight The Good War.  The former CAN’T become the latter even if the desire was there.  Society no longer values and rewards the same behavior.  Note that this book was written as the American Empire was done with the Outburst mode-and look how we have followed the historical trajectory towards collapse.

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Another Fun Filled Fact was that you can go back a thousand years and see the same deviant, anti-social or lazy traits we have today.  1,000 AD Baghdad had the following.  Free health care.  Filthy pop culture songs.  A feminist movement.  Agitation for a reduced hour work week ( this is, granted, more of a European thing, unless you view ObammyCare as a stealth imposed reduced work week ).   Swarms of the poor moving to the urban areas.  And a widespread hubris of the wonderfulness and uniqueness and the never-ending-ness of their empire.   If Shrub hadn’t Shocked And Awed Iraq, would the average citizen ever even heard of Baghdad?  How did that empire work out for them?  Now, so far so good.  We know that when it comes to the Agricultural Age, empires all have followed a similar pattern ( all end up in widespread ecological damage, also, by the way ) and America is certainly no exception.  We just think we are because we are a bunch of dumb asses which has got to also be a shared trait as luxury and sloth don’t exactly motivate the masses to apply themselves to study-why, when they are just living off the wealth generation of the past?

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However, the next step in this logical thought process is NOT that we will collapse just as they did.  We most definitely will collapse-that is human nature as unsustainable growth is part of the process.  But collapse must follow the energy decline of the civilization.  Which hence far has been agriculture until the British ( and they didn’t even use oil until their 10^th generation-although coal use was enough of a paradigm shift to make them unique in the generations prior.  A generation being about 25 years, by the way ).  The British would have seen a denuded and abandoned London at the end of their collapse, had it not been for the American Empire Of Oil.  England fed itself from its colonies, using coal fired sea transportation ( by and large as obviously they fed themselves by sail transport first, then in the end with oil, but we are speaking of cushioning the collapse, which coal certainly helped do ). 

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It was expedient for the US to bribe England to peacefully cede western civilization control.  Mostly by giving up strategic naval bases but also by allowing the island to become a bomber base ( Iceland was also used hence, and Greenland, but there wasn’t as nice of a request by us to them, nor the benefits ).  In effect, the rulers of England allowed their citizens to be painted with a Soviet nuclear target, in exchange for the rulers being excused from going down with the ship.  Rather than collapse ecologically, they merely had an economic one.  If the US had not had petroleum riches, the British Empire would have collapsed like all the rest of them-into an impoverished near wasteland ( like, for instance, Baghdad ).  Unfortunately for the US, not only is no one interested in peacefully allowing us to coexist with them in return for the ruling elite being handed a pension, no one has the resources to do so.  Energy decline being what it is, it is unlikely a world naval power can ever again police the oceans and global trade. 

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And you are of course aware that the American Empire is global.  Global Trade is really just American Trade.  We have done a pretty good job of sucking everyone else’s resources through a fire hose.  There isn’t really anyone that can build up another empire to replace ours ( not to mention that uncomfortable nuclear arsenal someone is going to last minute desperately use, to help poison great swaths of land covering resources ).  The Russians contracted in land, security obligations and population, and hence have a fighting chance of remaining a strong regional power-but not an empire per se.  The Chinese are a Potemkin Village empire.  A Kaboki Theatre Empire.  They are reliant on American naval power, and to a certain extent American Dollars, to feed themselves.  I’m certainly not saying “America is great and the world can’t survive without us”.  I’m saying that the world is declining with us, unable to break free as we control the last of the oil extraction.  It will be an American Empire collapse, with few nations left standing around us.

END 

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steel cases

STEEL CASE

Can a “case” be made for steel cased ammunition ( sorry, I had an uncontrollable compulsion to Spun The Pun )?  I bring this up after a thoughtful and helpful minion e-mailed me with a link to Wolf brand steel cased 303 British ammo, 38 cents each ( a smidge over 40 cents each after shipping if you bought two cases ).  I had no idea they made 303 in steel case and had never thought of it as being an option.  My usual ammunition acquisition strategy had been ( this was years in the past-the last time in the last two years I bought rifle ammo was a one time surplus find from Cheaper Than Dirt, a company I’m no where near as fond of as in decades past ) to buy the Eastern European deluxe brand of factory loaded ammo for 75 cents each from Sportsman’s Guide, with free shipping after using a coupon.  They used a brass case superior to others, it was reported to me by another minion, and at the same cost.  Hey, I’d have no problem buying American AND paying a premium for it, if I was assured that I was getting a quality product and that my dollars were going to American workers rather than a CEO, but since that hasn’t been true for a very long time I have no issue buying foreign.  It puts my money in the same pockets, but at a lower cost to me. 

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I mean, buy Ford?  Or Chevy ( that was my previous choice prior to the Detroit Bail Out, but their quality went down hill quicker than Hilary’s brain function )?  Are you friggin insane?  You are buying crap plastic construction which surrounds an unnecessary profusion of Windows OS computer chips guaranteed to start failing within the first few thousand miles.  At a higher price.  Why wouldn’t you buy a Toyota or Honda?  Patriotism?  It’s patriotic to automate out Union jobs, screw over your customers and focus your efforts on the emerging Chinese market?  I don’t think so.  What you reap, bitches.  And thanks to our recent discussion on guns ( I am certainly NOT a guru.  My minions provide me with a lot of input.  I would be an insufferable uneducated bloviater without them.  I’m happy to be corrected and taken to task by them.  Yes Men may go elsewhere ) I’m quite convinced that most American gun manufactures are not too far removed from the same quality standards of Detroit ( which isn’t even all Detroit anymore but also Italian ).  I can’t say that the ammunition makers aren’t also infected with the disease.

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Anyway, back to steel case ammunition.  In the past I was hesitant to recommend it, especially as any disruption in overseas trade made it time sensitive ( I voiced my concerns PRIOR to Obammy’s stupidity with Russian imports which jacked up the Mosin-Nagant rifles from $90 to $300 and doubled their 762x54r ammunition costs ).  Now, I view prepping time as so short that right now is the time to buy ALL stockpile items, even domestic ones such as wheat, because the oncoming economic collapse will eliminate all employment and trade.  So, your ammunition purchases are close to a One Off buy.  That leaves cost as the deciding factor.  To reload or to buy disposable ammo?  I’ve always been solidly in the camp on reloading, but I’m not sure if I can still hold that view ( unlike all these other idiots that use ten year old information to influence their views- such as “rimfire is cheap!”- I’m quite open to discarding old information and embracing new ). 

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Now, assuming steel cased ammo works just fine in the Enfield ( I have no experience, and the only gun I’m aware that actually loathes steel is the AR family ), we are left with cost.  A reload cost for the 303 is about 33 cents.   As the Enfield is infamous for shortening the life of brass cases, I only assume five reloads.  And that is WITH neck-sizing only, and annealing the tip of the case AND using the same rifle.  I could be wrong, and I’m not enough of a regular shooter to reload ( even if I have the equipment for post-collapse ) to have concrete information.  I use it as a benchmark.  So, fifteen cents for the case.  Another 15 cents for powder and three for a primer.  Without lead cost, 33 cents.  38 cents gets you a bullet and eliminates the need to reload.  And factory reloads are better for long term storage and reliability ( although not for accuracy ). 

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Reloading for pistol ammunition makes a lot of sense, with the six times powder use and the lack of pressure making case life far more robust.  But for thirty caliber rifles?  In my case, with a non-Mauser action ( I’ve talked to reloaders with Mauser actions and they don’t seem to get all that much more case life, but I’m wondering if that was because they full cased it?  But even if you had half the brass cost, it is still about 23 cents verses 38.  If you are starting out and need five thousand rounds, that price difference is a huge deal.  For others just supplementing? ) and lack of lead I’m hard pressed to care about the nickel difference.  If it is even a difference at all.  I’m wondering if the price difference isn’t eaten up with safe storage of your reloading components, not to mention eliminating ( for the most part ) component failures.  As I read the minions e-mail and did the math, I couldn’t help but wonder, What Am I Missing?  What am I overlooking here?  This article is my shout out for input to my other minions, rather than a definitive information piece.  What are your thoughts on quality and price.  I’m NOT factoring in convenience.  That is an oxymoron for survivalists.  A little extra work never hurt anyone if it saved them money.  Let the flame wars begin!

END

Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon ad graphics at the top of the page.  IF YOU DON’T SEE THE AD, DISABLE AD BLOCK ( go to the Ad Blocker while on my page and scroll down the menu to “disable this site” ). You can purchase anything, not just the linked item. Enter Amazon through my item link and then go to whatever other item you desire. As long as you don’t leave Amazon until after the order is placed, I get credit for your purchase.  For those that can’t get the ads because they are blocked by your software, just PayPal me occasionally or buy me something from my Amazon Wish List once a year.  Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for mere Book Money, so do your part.*** 
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peak peak, article 2 of 2 today

PEAK PEAK

I’ve discussed the concept of Peak Oil here many times.  Most of you Beck Buckaroos start snoozing after you proclaim Fracking Oil will last near forever.  I mention Peak Silver, Peak Gold, Peak Phosphorus, Peak Iron Ore, Peak Coal, Peak Energy BTU, Peak Every Friggin Thing and you all look at me like I’m the retarded one.  I can’t keep drumming the same song into your head if you are unwilling to listen, granted, but I can keep talking about Peak Something else in the vain hope that one, you’ll eventually start listening and if not than two, I’ll at least irritate the crap out of you.  On this blog, I’d wager most of you are willing to plead for Peak Peak, but I shan’t.  Oh no.  Today, Peak Grain.  In 1986 the globe saw Peak Grain.  That was the point when the most grain per capita was harvested.  It was only gone down from there during the last thirty years.  No amount of artificial fertilizer, insecticides, GMO’s or clearing rain forests has boosted the figures.  And before you even say anything, no, nothing is going to reverse that figure.  I’ll slaughter all your sacred cows such as vegetarianism, eliminating ethanol, postponing the Green Revolution or reduced population pressure.

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First, how about a few worrisome figures.  I won’t say “frightening figures” because I’m sure that none of you will be moved by this article.  I’m really writing it for the one percent of my readers who will listen and act.  I’ve called the US population of survivalists at about 30k.  There might be more “preppers” but I’m sure that thirty thousand, the rough readership of Rawles, is about the number that will ever think about going past the thirty day food store litmus test.  Of that, I have 600 readers.  2% of serious survivalists even consider reading of a Malthusian Collapse.  How many do you think actually live away from crowds and have five years of food stores?  1% of the 2%?  Well, probably more like 2-5%.  But still pretty pathetic when you start guessing how many breeding pairs you need to get the population through a bottleneck event.  Anyway, in the 1960’s when Ehrlich was worried about global famine, the grain yield was 327 kilograms per capita.  The Peak in 1986 was 370 kg.  Today ( well, a few years ago-you never get right up to the date with these figures.  I believe they are from 2007 ) it is 350, a 6% decline from peak.  We don’t have too far to go to get back to the figures that panicked the author of The Population Bomb.

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Now, let me just say that obviously I love the good reverend Malthus.  He was a historian and a mathematician, not a huckster or panic-monger.  He wanted to avoid more famines as had been the norm.  He was just Doing Da Math-something that all the dingus lickers out there claim that the Gore Warming scientists have done, yet they along with everyone else discount anything Malthus ever said.  Ehrlich himself was a scientist and by most accounts a very good one.  But when he updated Malthus to account for contemporary population growth fueled by Oil Agriculture, he was spat upon, vilified and roundly dismissed ( those that do obviously believe oil will last forever ).  Malthus was only proven wrong by the introduction of coal and petroleum, and carbon fuels are a ONE OFF energy bonanza.  Which is ending.  Which has been ending.  Do you think it is much of a coincidence that Peak Energy per capita was 1979 and Peak Grain was a mere seven years later?  The Green Revolution in Ag is mostly powered by petroleum inputs ( not just the obvious tractors and fertilizers, but irrigation.  40% of our food is from irrigated crops.  Now take into account silted up dams and depleted reservoirs ).

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Everyone turning to vegetarianism?  Allow me to guffaw uproariously.  The Have’s NEVER decrease their consumption when others are dying in a famine.  They keep eating their middle class or higher diet.  In the 1940’s in Bengal during a widespread famine, those with the means kept eating normally.  Americans happily throw another steak on the BBQ as they read about famine in Africa.  The poor in America might not remember what meat for breakfast or lunch is like, but their richer countrymen can afford $1k a month insurance with $10k deductibles to treat themselves as their health deteriorates from a diet far too rich in protein.  More Chinese than ever ratchet up their beer and pork consumption as the Arab Spring saw riots from hunger ( itself caused, mostly, by US ethanol laws ).

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And do you really think we will stop throwing a third of our corn crop in our gas tanks?  Obammy The Nobel Peace Prize Winner never considered it.  Bush might have started the Mexican slide into a Failed State by stopping cheap corn subsidies once their main oil field started losing 8% production a year ( and they cut back on their oil imports to us ), but those teary soft hearted liberals had no problem keeping the poor in the middle east from getting cheap corn from us.  The world turns 8% of available farmland into fuel.  It isn’t just us.  Remember about that shrinking wealth pie?  Everyone is going to screw anyone in a mad desperate last ditch effort at grabbing the disappearing wealth.  Hence the Food To Fuel.  Nobody cares if others starve, as long as the money is rolling in.  As with the utopian call towards vegetarianism, so to the dream of less driving.  As far as population?  The only thing that has happened is that the increase in population has slightly decreased.  It is still an increase, just not as big of one.  It is STILL a Mathusian equation of population always outpacing food.  That is like saying one person starving at your dinning room table is far better than two.

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Grain is not diet.  Granted.  But the trend towards more people and less food is irrefutable.  Word to wise.

END

Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon ad graphics at the top of the page.  IF YOU DON’T SEE THE AD, DISABLE AD BLOCK ( go to the Ad Blocker while on my page and scroll down the menu to “disable this site” ). You can purchase anything, not just the linked item. Enter Amazon through my item link and then go to whatever other item you desire. As long as you don’t leave Amazon until after the order is placed, I get credit for your purchase.  For those that can’t get the ads because they are blocked by your software, just PayPal me occasionally or buy me something from my Amazon Wish List once a year.  Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for mere Book Money, so do your part.*** 
*Contact Information*  Links To Other Blogs *  Land In Elko*  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com           *wal-mart wheat
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guest article, article 1 of 2 today

GUEST ARTICLE
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If you don’t know the “Limits To Growth” hypothesis you should perhaps first get acquainted to it, either through the Wikipedia article (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth ) or through this shorter article (http://www.commondreams.org/news/2012/04/06/limits-growth-1972-collapse-prediction-still-track ). We will use the graph of the latter in this discussion : http://www.commondreams.org/sites/default/files/imce-images/futurism-got-corn-graph.jpg

There are several things to note in this graph :

A : The mathematical model itself has been validated : the data accumulated between 1970 and 2000 closely matches the calculations.

B : According to this model we have about thirteen to thirteen years left before the “economic collapse” happens.

Dennis Meadows himself declared that his model was only valid until the plateau phase, because what happens after that would be impossible to predict or modelize. While that may be true, we’re also talking about somebody who released a massive bomb back in its day, which set a massive change in policy in motion and movies with Charlton Heston (imagine that !). So it is just as well highly probable that Dennis Meadows is being “very considerate” or “very cautious” or “very polite”, all of it translating into : he doesn’t tell us the whole truth.

The truth being that after the plateau phase the collapse is brutal. Some of you may have heard of “The Seneca Effect” (http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.fr/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html ) which is BTW somewhat validated by studies on the Mayan Classic Collapse (http://thesenecatrap.blogspot.fr/2015/01/senecas-pyramids-how-fast-did-mayan.html )

However, in the Meadows graph itself, we can see two such cliffs : observe the “Services per capita” curve and the “Food per capita curve”. Both drop sharply in a few year’s hence from now, whereas all other curves don’t show sharp turns.

These two indicators might very well be the only “advanced warning” signals we might get. This coincides eerily with Donald Trump being perfect to slash jobs, especially Mc Jobs, which are especially critical in the USA, all at the same time when automated replacements are being rolled out. (http://uk.businessinsider.com/momentum-machines-is-hiring-2016-6?r=US&IR=T )

The probable next French president announced this week that he intends not to renew 500,000 civil servant jobs in France (out of 5 million) that will disappear due to retirement. Also, now on a more personal level, people I know in the French health sector tell me that a lot of hospitals are going to be closed and also numbers of beds in the remaining units are going to be slashed, among other causes because of a shortage of medical personnel and doctors. As a midschool teacher myself, I can attest that there are not enough teachers as it is, with steadily decreasing quality as well, and that they are considering a stark reduction of capacities in this sector as well. As for the police, they’re chronically understaffed, overworked and never recruiting enough for replacement.

 I think we can consider that this indicates a sharp evolution in the amount of services per capita, at least in France. If we can establish that this is happening in other places in the developed world as well then we have basically another validation of Meadows’ model for the “Services per capita” curve, which is actually the only one we can really monitor by ourselves. Also take note that we should watch these evolutions primarily in developed countries, because this is where there is still something to monitor. Poor and emerging economies are chronically underperforming and underserviced anyway – that said, I think we can see India’s current monetary disaster as a massive decrease in services per capita there, since money is a service.

As for myself, if I witness a sharp drop in services per capita (as of today these are very short-term predictions but predictions nonetheless), I will consider that the “Economic Collapse” will be about ten years ahead.

Some people might argue that Meadows couldn’t take the technological evolutions into account, and thus the curves might behave differently. Well in the “Limits of Growth” it is primarily about resources, not Facebook, and the technologies around food didn’t evolve that much, nor will they in a foreseeable future. The automation of Mc Jobs simply means that “useless eaters” are now even more useless, actually accelerating discrepancies in food & resources allocation.

 END

how's that olduvai theory working out for you? 2 of 2

HOW’S THAT OLDUVAI THEORY WORKING OUT FOR YOU? Part 2

Perhaps I should have stated that the first step in our question ( is it probable that we only have two or three years left to prep before industrial civilization implodes from lack of energy? ) is asking yourself if you are even worried about Peak Oil.  Obviously, from the number of times I’ve harped on it, from the very beginning of my blog posting ten years ago, you know that it concerns me greatly.  But I don’t expect everyone to agree with me.  I know without a shadow of a doubt that I am correct, and have lived my life accordingly, but that is my personal hang-up.  But, do we really need Peak Oil to be very, very frightened?  Donald Trump winning the election only stopped imminent attack by the Russians.  It will do nothing to change our trajectory into oblivion, because all The Donald can do is rearrange the pieces of the shrinking pie and I‘ll give you one guess if its going to us or the 1% ( it’s going to be nice to just call The Prez, “The Donald”, rather than constantly using needed and mandatory derogatory nicknames for the last AssClown.  O’Bummer, the First Kenyan,  First Muslim, Barry The Golfer,  House Negro, White House Negro, Half-Breed, etc. ).

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Oh, and hint, 90% of all the countries assets are owned by one tenth of one percent of the population.  Anyway, even if I claim to be positive that our economic collapse is caused by the plunge in net energy available globally, the only reason that the underlying cause is important to me is because it proves the trend is impossible to reverse.  To you, just look around at the last nine years and tell me anything but doctored statistics are improving?  Since the banker bailout, the derivatives markets have increased insanely.  The behavior that caused the housing bubble to pop was doubled down on.  How can that possibly end well?  Already since 2008, many other economic players have started using alternatives to the PetroDollar and once our control of the oils payment method ends, so too does our ability to do anything-such as buy overseas oil or bail out the global banking system like last time.  Hell, just look at Detroit.  Did their bail-out do anything, other than see auto prices double as their quality plunged?  And that was orders of magnitude less convoluted or expensive than the banker bail-out.  Look how quickly our 100 Year Fracking Miracle Of Energy Independence sucked on one crack pipe of delusion too many and responded to less than $100 oil by imploding quite nicely.

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Adjusted for inflation ( 1970‘s $12 oil was about 1/4 of an ounce of gold ), $100 a barrel oil is NOT all that insane.  The fact we can’t run our economy on it should be telling you something.  All these obvious clues are saying, HELLO!!!!, how much longer can you possibly have a job to go to?  Knowing full well that it is silly to time the collapse, I still can’t imagine why that three year figure doesn’t set off your alarm.  When I read it, my reaction was to agree that it just sounded right.  And it isn’t because I’m running scared right now.  I’m in no way panicking with preps.  No reloading supplies because of the election, no extra food supplies ( until they mark down sugar for the holidays ).  No more odds and ends I never got around to getting ( the last one of those I procured was a tooth extractor.  A single size, rather than a kit, wasn’t a great deal at $16, but I couldn’t spring for near $40 for the latter.  It is another Better Than Nothing item ).  Actually, once I started saving more cash my anxiety level decreased substantially.  That chaps my ass, being a religious Assets Only kind of guy, and cash is supposed to be an accident waiting to happen, but all the chicken entrails pointed towards job loss first.  And, you need to sooth what frightens you, even if intellectually you know it is a bum deal.

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Actually, I’m amazed that with every month that goes by, we haven’t already seen more widespread collapse.  It doesn’t have to be Mad Max, just the end of jobs and your local government massively cutting services.  And then, things just staying the same.  Mad Max will follow, but I’m more concerned with all of our thin hold on our lifestyle.  One major country not delivering oil would see the above.  The oil doesn’t even need to be running out.  Just our geopolitical fortunes.  I think three years ahead with business as usual is asking a whole hell of a lot, be it from our fellow humans or the deity of our choice.  And what do you have to lose?  What possible harm can come of getting out of debt, moving out of the city, getting solar panels and better food stores ( in this case, “better” being defined as “more calories” ) and all the rest?  Inflation will make all that harder in the future anyway, and wage and hourly cuts won’t help in the slightest. 

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Returning to the original decline in energy, I most certainly can see a mere three year grace period to the end.  New figures are constantly coming out giving us a newer, better picture of the true energy situation, and it looks a heck of a lot worse than it did just a year or two ago.  We still have plenty of gross energy available, but it has decreased so substantially in net energy that it has crushed our economies and will soon usher in an era of contraction so severe and rapid that even triage will be impaired.  Remember, it’s a waterfall collapse, not a stair step one ( with humble apologies to the Druid Dude, I think your history is wrong-don’t feel bad, so was that of the commies ).  Good gravy, it isn’t like any of this is a surprise, but neither should it be all that much of a burden.  Buried wheat and junk rifles on junk land with a junk trailer is just a Rednecks Vacation Home.   If you were spending a hundred forty grand on a second home in the country, I could sympathize with your trepidation.  Going with worse case scenario, however, if done frugally, is just cheap insurance.

END

Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon ad graphics at the top of the page.  IF YOU DON’T SEE THE AD, DISABLE AD BLOCK ( go to the Ad Blocker while on my page and scroll down the menu to “disable this site” ). You can purchase anything, not just the linked item. Enter Amazon through my item link and then go to whatever other item you desire. As long as you don’t leave Amazon until after the order is placed, I get credit for your purchase.  For those that can’t get the ads because they are blocked by your software, just PayPal me occasionally or buy me something from my Amazon Wish List once a year.  Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for mere Book Money, so do your part.*** 
*Contact Information*  Links To Other Blogs *  Land In Elko*  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com           *wal-mart wheat
*Link To All My Published Books
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there

how's that olduvai theory working out for you? 1 of 2

HOW’S THAT OLDUVAI THEORY WORKING OUT FOR YOU?

Before we begins today’s joyous meandering trip into another episode of “This Is Your Future”, let me quote from the article which inspired this work:

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This impending sudden energy curtailment will guarantee that the collapse of global industrial civilisation will be complete within 15 years (which is an exceedingly conservative estimate – Dr Louis Arnoux believes a 10 year timeline is more likely and I fear he is probably right). This does NOT mean we have a 10 or 15 year window to prepare for an offgrid fossil fuel free lifestyle, it means global industrial collapse will be complete by then.

Those fortunate enough to be able to prepare, have at best a 2 to 3 year window of opportunity, however it is possible that if global financial collapse occurs sooner, then our ability to act will be lost sooner.

POST PEAK OIL SLIDES FOR DINERS

Published November 12, 2016 | By Geoffrey Chia

Doomsteaddiner.net

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And, once again for another unwelcome diversion from the exciting wisdom I myself alone am capable of, in case you are new here you might be unaware of the Olduvai Theory which is looking to be less of a theory every day and more like a natural law you had best treat with the seriousness of Gravity, the link:

http://dieoff.org/page125.htm

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Okay, the above article gives a date that is pretty spot on what the Olduvai Theory states, that the Oil Age is going to be 1930 to 2030, with the later date seeing the same volume of oil as the earlier, but with far more population the per capita oil use will be too little to sustain our ability to continue with Business As Usual.  The Olduvai Theory gave 1979 as the global per capita BTU peak.  35 years on, every swinging cheese dingus on the planet has less energy to use ( conflicts through the entire Oil Age have been about some populations using a lot more energy than others.  Per Capita use has declined even as a very few nation states have monopolized the control and use of the majority of the energy.  Alas, it isn’t just Bush Bitch Africans starving to get us enough energy for our wasteful use, the American poor have been surrendering more of their share as of late.  Remember, it isn’t the VOLUME of liquid that is pumped but the energy it contains after extraction costs ).

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Also remember, the Olduvai Theory is about 25 years old.  This doomer stuff isn’t exactly rocket surgery.  More common sense coupled with the rare courage to complete the math to its logical conclusion.  Way before Peak Oil got popular and long ago prior to the obvious crash in our energy supplies EROI ( tar sands and fracking giving it up at a-wait for sarcasm!-WHOPPING 5 to 1 and ethanol even lower.  In 1930 our EROI domestic supply was 100 to 1 ), some guy said, hey, energy per head has been declining for ten years and here is the math which decides your future.  Hey, I hate math with the rest of normal people.  Only folks that have their brains wired a certain way can understand that algebra and crap.  But I can sure add and subtract with the best of them, even without taking off my shoes.  Not being a Business Major, I actually understand that you can’t have infinite growth on a finite planet ( Peak Prosperity was a wonderful pioneer in applying this to economics and popularizing it, although sadly after popularity came Optimism Whitewashing so that the masses could be frightened only enough to titillate them rather than scaring them into concrete action.  The fate of most writers on a similar trajectory, sadly ).

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Once you understand Infinite Growth/Finite Planet, and the only reason most people DON’T understand it is simply because the don’t WANT to ( for the humor unimpaired, those who enjoy a bit of comic relief with their civilization collapse, the TV show “Archer” is usually slinging out the line “can’t, or won’t?”.  Well, along with “danger zone” and others, but the first one is the best way to cut clear all the bullspit ), it’s easy to understand this Survivalism stuff, but first you need to look into the abyss.  Which brings us back to the start of the article.  Not to once again preach Prep Yesterday! But to ask about the time frame mentioned.  Timing the collapse is not only impossible, it is a fools game indeed.  Yet, a schedule is a very useful tool.  Too useful to ignore.

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As I’ve discussed previously, a schedule might give you the appearance of a Stick Up Ass uptight Fun Black Hole, but not only does it increase your productivity, it is also more and more mandatory as you age since it reinforces a failing memory.  Without a schedule you are usually adrift in life, too easily giving in to indulgences and laziness.  My cardio exercise is before the work day starts.  Period.  The only thing stopping it is drenching rain and that isn’t exactly common here in the high desert ( in the lower desert, you usually have Turd Washers, but up in the mountains they are far less common.  More moisture is captured in snow, plus, pussy ass old people like the low desert for the heat.  Avoid the low deserts because of perpetual decades long droughts and lots and lots of worthless population ).  If I kept moving my exercise time, it would just be making excuses and not get done.  Sleeping in due to sleep deprivation would usually win out over weekend exercise, for instance, or being too physically exhausted after work.  Many lazy people just disregard folks with a schedule as anal retentive, which of course is true, but life isn’t just about relaxing.  It is earning relaxation to appreciate it.

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So, not only must you schedule your current life to increase your prepping performance ( good for exercise, obviously, but for grocery shopping to avoid impulse buys, for useful hobby time, research, etc. ) but you need to try to schedule the velocity and severity of the occurring collapse.  Yes, impossible, and yes, a fools errand, but any effort is better than none.  How else do you schedule your stockpiling?  Your major life decisions such as when to move out of the city?  Far too many times we have heard the paranoid call for the immediate collapse, granted.  But one time is all it takes for them to be right, negating the importance of all the previous false alarms.  So, tomorrow, how probably is that two to three year timeframe prior to our being ass deep in zombies?

END  

 

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finances for collapse book 1

FINANCES FOR COLLAPSE BOOK 1

INTRODUCTION

Much of what I have written previously has focused on preparing as cheaply as possible.  And contrary to what some Yuppie Survival Scum proclaim ( no playing favorites here, pretty close to everyone else writing on survivalism is playing the tired old saw of spending at least a hundred thousand to buy only the best because you indeed are a special snowflake and deserve it because your life is worth it.  What they actually mean is that they can’t think of anything original that hasn’t already been said before and that since they read the top ten survival books of the 1970’s, then did little more than update the prices and model numbers, you should immediately send them all your money so they can retire to the boonies and still maintain a middle class lifestyle in which both their lard asses and the ass of their trophy wife has grown accustomed to.  If you feel great about taking survival advice from a marketing genius, more power to you ), you certainly CAN prepare very cheaply and still have quality equipment and training.

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Right now, you might think that a pound of wheat kernels is a pitiful excuse for a days rations, and compared to a tasty fat and protein packed MRE, you certainly would be correct.  Alas, the wheat cost twenty five cents and the military ration near $7.  Now multiply that cost by however many days you want to stay alive after the stores have closed down.  With trapping and wild edible foraging supplementing your diet you can live on wheat, of which you have years worth due to its low cost.  You can’t afford years worth of freeze dried foods, or even grocery store wet pack cans.  Living in a bunker awaiting the nuclear fallout to clear, yes, wheat is dangerously lacking in some nutrients.  Of course, so are MRE’s-just different ones.  And don’t get me started on semi-auto weapons.  I can count on one hand the number of folks I’ve corresponded with that agree that you can actually survive without them.  I won’t dwell into that quagmire right now as I’ve already written an entire book on the subject ( Apocalypse Gun Porn ).  I’ll just say that I’m perfectly willing to bet my life on the Queens Own Lee-Enfield over any fancy plastic poodle shooter that cost at a minimum twice the price ( not including magazines, upgraded parts to minimize the jamming, optics to help blow through your ammunition supply even quicker as you turn your mid range carbine into a submachinegun and back-up sidearm for when your weapon is down for maintenance in the field ).  I feel I’ve gotten superior equipment and supplies for far less money.

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But folks continue to equate money with quality.  They still feel they need to proclaim superiority both to their breeding mate and to their social group.  Look at me!  I have a house that cost EIGHT times my yearly income, compared to your pitiful, inferior SIX times.  Debt is my peacock feather! 

And that pretty much goes to the heart of this booklet.  Far too many people have been preaching for far too long that worshiping Mammon is the cure for all your ills.  So, I can’t just preach Cheap Survival, I feel I also need to cover how to think about your finances so that you can survive.  Both surviving the unfolding financial collapse ( you seriously only believe we haven’t been in a collapse since 2007 if you take the FedGov’s statistics at face value.  Rather than dig for the right ones, just look around at the job market and our medical industry, the two canaries in the coal mine that are so dead and rotting that only an ivory tower professor could miss the signal.  Boots on the ground easily tell you that we are in free fall economically and as any parachutist can confirm, once you start falling towards the ground gravity will have you as its bitch.  Do you even have a piece of cloth to constrain your pull towards an uncomfortable landing?  Or do you just have a nice looking book  telling you how to build one?  The most barbaric fundamental supply stash, your bird in the hand, is far superior to the theoretically ideal bird you’ve never procured due to lack of funds over yonder in the bush ) and freeing prepping funds.

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Let’s continue piling on our metaphors.  If you were on the Titanic, and you were in a hurry to get the hell off that turd, would you jump in the first badly painted overcrowded boat, or would you wait for one that only carried first class passengers and had comfortable seats and a fresh coat of polish?  That, in essence, is what most of the survival advice out there recommends-waiting for a lifeboat with better accommodations so as to pamper you in an emergency as you had been in life.   Are you really sure it is a good idea to wait for your better lifeboat?  I sure as Hades don’t.  I was ready for Financial Armageddon before it began ( there were significant issues as to whether I could survive the lack of a job while the Police State still functioned-the ex-wife tax being non-negotiable.  But in all other aspects I was ready, and living in a tin shack on scrubland was far preferable to living in the city paying rent and hoping I could stay employed long enough to save up for a far better retreat ).

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You can’t just stockpile affordable and frugal supplies.  You must also develop a better mindset about money and spending.  Even if you think you are ready philosophically,  it is a constant fight to deny a society surrounding you advocating debt and instant gratification.  It SHOULDN’T be difficult.  We all know money is intrinsically worthless now and headed even lower.  Yet that is the power of tribal consensus.  Bitches all wanna get paid, all the time.  In a time the resource pie keeps shrinking, everyone fights harder to increase their piece ( or at least keep the shrink minimized ).  Everyone.  The social pressure and stigmas are only growing, and to buck the trend is harder than ever.  Of course, like all difficult tasks, the rewards in success make it worthwhile.

END

Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon ad graphics at the top of the page.  IF YOU DON’T SEE THE AD, DISABLE AD BLOCK ( go to the Ad Blocker while on my page and scroll down the menu to “disable this site” ). You can purchase anything, not just the linked item. Enter Amazon through my item link and then go to whatever other item you desire. As long as you don’t leave Amazon until after the order is placed, I get credit for your purchase.  For those that can’t get the ads because they are blocked by your software, just PayPal me occasionally or buy me something from my Amazon Wish List once a year.  Pay your author-no one works for free.  I’m nice enough to publish for mere Book Money, so do your part.*** 
*Contact Information*  Links To Other Blogs *  Land In Elko*  Lord Bison* my bio & biblio*   my web site is www.bisonprepper.com           *wal-mart wheat
*Link To All My Published Books
* By the by, all my writing is copyrighted. For the obtuse out there