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Monday, September 5, 2016

half and half 1 of 3


HALF AND HALF
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note: I would be VERY cautious about buying stockpile batteries from Family Dollar.  I've bought and hoarded AA and AAA's from dollar stores for a long time.  I rotate them and have never had a problem even after two or three years.  The other day I opened a pack from Fam$ that still had 16 months to go to expiration ( and which I had bought less than a year ago ).  They had NO juice in them at all.
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ATTENTION!!!ATTENTION!!!! Incredible.  Rush down to Kroger NOW this very day and stock up on shortening.  I don’t know if it is a sale or the new everyday price.  But a tub is only $1.79!!!!!!!!  No other grocery comes close to being so low in price, especially not Wally.  In a nice thick plastic tub ( although the top is a bit flimsy ).  You need fat in your post-collapse diet and even if shortening isn’t that good for you, being without is worse.  Do NOT plan on burning your body fat to supplement your diet.  Go!  GO NOW!!!!!  Old price, close to $3.  Still the best bargain around.  But at the new price, you buy NOW!  Even if you only use it for barter.
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I’ve mentioned not too long ago that I was on the fence as to whether inflation was as assured as I had imagined.  All my life I’ve lived under inflation, as have you, as well as being completely convinced hyper-inflation was our End Game.  As have you all, I’m sure.  Now, for some decades the Deflationists have tried to debunk this convention and I’ve never really bought into their arguments.  They use the historic Russian Dude economic cycle, the Numbered Waves demographic theory, and everything in between.  The problem with their arguments is that they believe the last 500 years of hyper-Western wealth is the norm when all it is was an aberration of resource extraction unable to be duplicated ( for a time, even in the face of US Peak Oil followed by global per capita energy use decline, the optimists even argued that colonizing space was a way to Pretend To Extend; a very shallow and embarrassing current example is the FrackTards ) ( if you go back further and track the supply and prices of basic feed grains, overpopulation and solar cycles point to inflation as a much better guide ).

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It is hard to find an example of an empire that didn’t end in hyperinflation.  Inflation didn’t cause their collapse but was a symptom of resource contraction.  When you have the choice of giving up power and wealth today, sparing the citizens the wraith of total economic collapse, or holding on as long as you can even if you end up making things far worse, everyone always picks the immediately less painful option.  You could probably find some examples to refute that statement, perhaps bringing up British Empire.  True, they went with the Druid Dude Collapse Option and signed up for a long slow relatively uneventful collapse so that from a century ago controlling a good size economy and real estate to today having a national budget not too far away from just one of the US states, but this ignores, once again, the last five centuries.  The same bankers that introduced the successful “central bank funded empire” in England had control of most of the Western countries economies at one time or another during the colonization period and can be almost considered one empire rather than several.  One area was drained of resources and the elite moved on, the local population suffering but the infrastructure stayed reasonably intact.  Spain hyper-inflated but was unique in that rather than fiat currency, they flooded the economy with precious metal.  Of course there was other inflationary times, but one would hesitate to call these empires.  The less of a “real” empire an aspiring group was, the less likely they kept a stable currency and the less likely that they were under the bankers control.

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My point is, you can quibble over which empire did or didn’t end in hyperinflation.  Most likely all your examples are recent.  But if you go back past carbon fuel inputs, I would say my contention is valid.  Once resources diminish past the growth/infrastructure maintenance stage, the money supply is given a rough sodomization.  It is one of the last ways to kick the can down the road.  So I find it hard to argue inflation won’t happen.  Some economists try to have it both ways.  They claim that we will have a period of strong deflation until hyper inflation kicks us in the ass.  Others point to our duel economy, where necessities are inflating and optional goods or services are deflating.  This makes a certain amount of sense.  If you think you need a house, prepare to fork over half your income for all your life.  If you think you need health care, give up your other half.  That doesn’t leave much for food or transportation.

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Deflation isn’t seen in falling prices, as that is impossible under our current mega-corporation fascist régime.  The federal government isn’t the only organization that knows how to trade in the future for an extension on life support.  Everyone that is anyone borrows extreme amounts of money to keep their corporation running, and the difference between what they pay on their loans and what the small fry do determines who stays in business.  Why do you think you pay $20 for a pizza?  Because of the ingredients?  The cost of minimum wage labor?  Of course not.  It is to service the debt the corporation used to crush its competitors.  And I’d even wager that the company would lose money on that pizza if they suddenly had to pay 3% interest on their loans rather than 1%.  That is how screwed up the economy is.  But it also explains why prices can’t fall even in the face of falling demand. 

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Deflation is only seen in the lower level of price inflation.  On Obummer’s watch, our national debt doubled.  It actually quadrupled if you factor in the other national central banks we bailed out eight years ago, but since the over quadrillion dollar derivatives market will implode the whole global economy I don’t think that decision alone is too much to worry about.  But with all that liquidity added to the global economy, our prices should be a lot higher.  Food should have more than doubled or tripled, for instance.  Since all that new money has basically gone into stemming the banks bleeding out ( creating assets they lost in the ‘08 crash ), the consumer economies haven’t really seen the inflation they would have.  But we don’t have a classic deflationary period either.  Just be thankful prices aren’t much higher.  Yet, we are still seeing massive unemployment and imploding consumer demand due to a classic overcapacity globally.  This is why deflation has made any appearance at all. 

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So, what is it going to be?  Deflation as nobody works and most factories are idol?  Or inflation as countries and empires have no other way of paying their bills ( there is no way China will ever have enough gold compared to its spectacular debt-they have joined the West in inflating away their currency-a race to the bottom )?  Continued tomorrow.

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7 comments:

  1. "inflation" is baked into the cake as soon as the central banks increase the base money supply. Diluting the currency with more currency is a silent theft from everyone who had the first batch of currency. The delay in seeing it in the grocery store is dependent on bank loan policy as well as supply/demand. Price increases are not inflation, they are just prices (tending to go up as the currency is debased).

    A Duel is a fight; Dual is a set, like left and right braids in the excellent hair.

    pdxr13

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  2. Hyperinflation is when people lose confidence in the currency and won't hold it as "savings". There is a "shortage" of currency because banks won't make reasonable loans for productive activities and people won't accept loans at the insane rate of depreciation. The .gov pays employees with even-more zeros on their checks, or they starve (2 weeks wages to get on a city bus). Price/wage controls results in shortages/quitting, in favor of the more-expensive Free (black) Market run by gangsters. The exception could be secured loans of currency on gold (at 50% of value), repayable in gold or silver, but these kinds of loans are risky (the borrower will lose their security), if not impossible to make or perform on. Barter, even ledger-entry local currency + silver dimes for smalls, is better than being remotely robbed by the central dot-gov.

    This is where needing nothing is great. Warm, fed, watered, sheltered, remote, armed, listening to the radio at the top of the hour until it goes silent.

    pdxr13

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  3. I had to go to your brothers "rich man's" website today to find out why you and him hate President Lincoln so much.
    Wow Sometimes you are a great follower of his knowledge.
    Also like the 3 part article you posted on your brothers web site last week! As a "family" member are U indeed allowed to win the grand Prize? Just Askin' J Rawles.
    Oh! forgot to praise the hair you shaved off last year due to those pesky scalp lice you caught from your "pit of doom" Yea, you pass me every day here in Elko, in a MOTOR VEHICLE! That uses what? GAS FROM OIL! 20 years from now we that listened to the doom prophet will be laughing our asses off as we drive our V8 454 suv's down the road! LOL

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  4. Not relevant to your current post, but lots of comments here and on other blogs concerning the $99.00 Walmart shotgun. Here's my two cents. I got mine here in Nevada for a shade over $106.00, including tax. Long story short; It works, but it's not for the faint-hearted. Add in another approx. $35.00 for a recoil reducing pad and butt stock shell holder, and I'm good-to-go for less than $150.00. Out of the box it wasn't premium grade, but not too shabby, either. It locked up tight, went "bang" every time, and had pretty good wood. Yes, it does have nasty recoil-as most single-shots do, even with the relatively mild # 6 shot I was using. The trigger is also very hard to pull, but, hey, it's a $99.00 shotgun! Mine probably won't be handed down as a family heirloom, but for a behind-the-seat truck gun, or a better-than-nothing home defense gun, for the price, it's hard to beat.

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  5. "But it also explains why prices can’t fall even in the face of falling demand."
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    That's the money shot right there (pun intended), you moneypr0n addict you.

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  6. “Others point to our duel economy, where necessities are inflating and optional goods or services are deflating.”


    That's what I've sort of noticed as well. As an example, the motor scooters that I'm looking at are still reasonably priced (Even in CA where they must meet stringent EPA specs, and cost more than anywhere else). But I noticed certain food items have gone through the roof. I first noticed it when I went to get some Top Ramen after a period of time. I can remember full well when it was marked down to a nickel a pack (20 for $1) on certain flavors, and this was at Safeway. I went buy some one day and couldn't believe how much it had gone up. It was now $3.12 for a 12 pack.


    @2:31 PM; Don't know what it costs, but if you can afford to have the barrel ported, that also helps a lot with the recoil. Another trick is to add a steel weight to the rear stock as the H&R Deluxe Topper model shotgun had.

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    Replies
    1. 20 cent Ramen seems to be the rule now, unless on sale. 15 cents on sale. 26 cents every day sounds about right for one of the cheese dingus chains that mark up ALL non perishables to "thank you for shopping with us, DUMBASS!!!!" levels chains such as Safeway, Raly's and Albertsons. I hate to buy anywhere but Krogers.

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I must moderate-trust me. You don't want to see what happens otherwise. Sometimes it takes awhile to respond as I only check two or three times a day. No N-Bombs, nothing to get me libeled. Otherwise, have at it. If you criticize me, make sure to praise my hair first.