Friday, May 25, 2018

consume mass quantities 1 of 2


CONSUME MASS QUANTITIES
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note: a bite of a hate-fest going on over the last few posts in the comment section.  I know it is hard when people act retarded, but look at it from their point of view.  They don't know any better.  Attack IDEAS, please don't attack the person behind them.  You may think it is stupid and say just that.  That is still perceived as an attack.  Isn't it better to say something more civil like "That is a very bad idea.  Here's why"?  I know we all slip.  I'm asking for a better effort, please.  We are all supposed to be above all that, but we are also human and pissing contests start easily.  This blog is about bettering ourselves.  Act accordingly.
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note: free books.  Plague, I think, rather than zombie https://amzn.to/2IK92MU .  Seems like it is a SJW fantasy PA, but I could be wrong https://amzn.to/2KU8pki .  Post-apoc https://amzn.to/2IOIbU4 . 
You lucky bastards, I haven’t covered logistics for some time ( even if energy decline overlaps that and it might have been mentioned in passing ), and thought it would be a nice change for you.  Specifically, planning on fighting from a nation state military logistics perspective, even though you are equipped-at best-as a nomadic villager.  When you are living amongst the trees you tend to forget it is part of a forest.  When you live your whole life amongst consumption and disposable goods, you tend to forget there is an infrastructure behind all of that.

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Most folks who should know better from a military perspective make the mistake of looking at logistics as a inventory, ordering and transportation issue.  “We’ll be fighting a six month war, we need to ammo dump X million rounds and air lift it to each battalion every X number of weeks”.  That is not logistics except in the fantasy world where nobody ever runs out of energy or ore or empire.  Logistics is having the supplies to get more supplies to protect the folks having and needing the supplies.  It starts at demographics, adds geography, sprinkles in centralized government with all its issues, looks at economics and then in the end can bean counters get the product to the front.

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Europe didn’t just “invent” gunpowder because they were smarter.  They couldn’t even make the guns using the powder until a centralized mining and manufacturing infrastructure  was in place already.  Then powder relied on a centralize bureaucracy and taxes and the ability to finance large navies that used powder to conquer tropical areas with deposits of nitrates.  Each one needing its own infrastructure built up over centuries and multiple wars. 

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Perhaps a better analogy would be earth orbit solar microwaved down to the planet.  Regardless of whether that would be a positive net energy device ( fracking oil and Canadian tar sands are pretty much a close to no positive net, as is ethanol, but are used as they are scraping the bottom of the barrel and regardless of cost in energy, the fertilizer and food must be shipped.  Just like Nazi Germany could care less about the EROI of liquefied coal when its national survival was at stake ), as much sense as it might make if you are incapable of launching enough material into orbit it simple doesn’t matter if it is a good idea or not.

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It didn’t matter how good of an idea it was for the AmerIndians or Zulu’s to make their own guns and powder, they didn’t have the infrastructure for it.  They didn’t have an agricultural empire colonizing other lands for ore and slaves and energy and nitrates.  They had no central bank or taxation or bureaucracies.  They didn’t have a surplus to employ tradesmen and craftsmen.  They had no real road system ( the Inca’s did, as well as the other aspects of centralization, but they didn’t have the means to colonize far enough, nor was their metal industry ever sufficient ).  In short, the military did not defeat the Americas.  The infrastructure of the home countries did.

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I won’t veer off on the biologic warfare advantage.  Without that nothing would have ever amounted to much, akin to America in Afghanistan.  But the lack of infrastructure in Africa was the same disadvantage and if anything the Africans used biologic warfare against the invaders ( primarily malaria, but the tsetse fly alone precluded ranching which makes colonizing large barren areas on the cheap possible ).  Infrastructure eventually allowed the European advantage there ( the infrastructure to colonize lead to the surplus allowing higher education and research leading to anti-malarial medications ).

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Survivalists assume a continuation of infrastructure.  I don’t know why.  It took us almost a thousand years to incrementally achieve an oil economy empire, one small advantage added to another ( something as simple as a better grazing animal in the old world, or a superior grain in wheat over corn, can, added to other small advantages over time, make a big difference cumulatively ).  For half of the age of that one off advantage magnitudes higher than all the others order of living, we have used up all the surplus energy taking the last of the diffuse ores never before available to lower energy source societies and using that all up into disposables ( the hubris and shortsightedness of the last century of businessmen and politicians will become the stuff of legends ).

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Everything you own, or most if you are older than dirt, is a product of petroleum.  Every single piece of machinery or social order you can ever witness is a product of petroleum.  If petroleum is in decline, and population increases, and the infrastructure that sustained American empire after the defeat in Vietnam and Afghanistan is failing, I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to conclude that Business As Usual is unsustainable.  Your entire existence will change and that includes more of anything being available to you.  This includes your job, the value of your money, the resupply of anything anywhere. 

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If you are NOT treating every round of ammunition as if it were itself Fort Knox ( to repeat a wonderful screed phrase by a commenting minion ), you aren’t understanding your lack of infrastructure.  You assume somehow you’ll never run out?  Even if you were supported by media whores and delusional readers desperate to continue worshipping Mammon and could afford to stock pallets of ammunition, blowing through that stash in pursuit of tactics dependent on continued infrastructure will soon enough see you without the means to continue that practice.  I know you still don’t get it ( “I’ll just stock deeper” ), so tomorrow we cover logistics and military strategy and tactics and how infrastructure determines them.

END ( today's related link https://amzn.to/2LoEFNM )
 

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52 comments:

  1. Excellent.
    I've heard a lot of people these days think eggs come from the store. So goes the depth of their intellect.

    To take this topic as far as it can go, I present, "I, Pencil":

    https://fee.org/resources/i-pencil/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That should be Logistics 101. Good point, thanks.

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    2. I can't vouch for my memory or the accuracy of the news story. But I read recently that a dozen eggs in Venuzuala costs $120 (odd) but the monthly pay is $2

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    3. I thought everyone raised chickens everywhere in Latin America? Or is that China?

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    4. egg story. nephew and niece of a friend sent to her on homestead for summer as parents had commitments.
      found out where eggs come from and refused to eat another one from that day.
      their mother was mad at the aunt.

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    5. There was a story from way back, some philosopher or someone of a similar occupation, found out the sex organ was also used for urination, and became celebate. I guess it would have been too hard to quit peeing. People should stop eating altogether-they could fertilize your food with poop!

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  2. I'm afraid "hate fest" is the only style of communication the modern folks know.

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    1. I think that is a self-defense mechanism. No more unity or tribe, you just project hostility to protect yourself since no one has your back. Well, just because it is understandable doesn't excuse it. I'm going to have to crack down on the bad behavior, something I neglected for twelve years. My fault-I let the rot start and spread. I was too focused on the writing above all else.

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  3. Yeah, but if you are all moderating, then less effort is into the artistic creation of thought and ideas. Let the kids play, they are only typing out words of differences that is only a digital soft pedaling of an in the face verbal confrontation that will occur in person, and on the ground, in any type of human interaction dynamics. The first to type something is not always the correct or moral certainty. If an individual whom types out his/her information/thoughts/opinions/theory is not thick skinned enough or willing to accept a "peer review" input then that person is not professional enough to be in the grown ups playground. Let free speech prevail (within decorum) as that is what we may have to fight and die for, before or after our remaining resources.

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    1. I disagree.

      I've watched at least four (I've lost count) forums destroyed through trolls / infighting

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    2. Right, I'm mostly worried about the "with decorum" aspect. Say whatever, but be civil. We want information rather than a peeing contest. If it gets personal it becomes no data all emotion. We don't have time for that. Malthusian's nightscape is nigh after all.

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    3. Dingo-I realize I've been remise. Without censorship, I want to clean this up as far as civility.

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    4. If you want free speech you have to enforce it. Or in no time you'll have SJWs bullying you because you "threaten" their right to free speech.

      Ghostsniper (oh not him again) was completely sincere when he wrote some days ago (source : http://bisonprepper.blogspot.fr/2018/05/tribe-gore-1-of-2-and-article-1-of-2.html )
      " The internet, and the world at large, has turned everyone into their own little hollywood and everybody would be better off with a smorgasboard of humble pie and just shut the fuck up already."

      He's allowed to talk but not you. According to him you don't have a clue about anything and you better shut up.

      Dingo is right, in the end it's about this place staying relevant (=alive) or not. If I have to defend each and every post of mine against a bitter delusional fuck that wants to shut me down, I'll just leave, and so will everybody else. The old fuck thinks he has "won" and goes back to rambling twenty-year old gun magazines informercials.

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    5. Okay, that last paragraph? That is what I'm talking about with uncivil comments. I understand you believe you were wronged initially, and I'm not arguing you weren't. But please don't continue talking trash after we've established peace again. Whoever was right or wrong, both need to return to NOT MAKING THIS PERSONAL. Please! Even if someone is a bitter old fuck, you can voice your view on this without getting so personal. The attacks have to stop. Focus on the ISSUES. Not the people behind them. You aren't helping your own case for a more civil discourse on the comments. I still love you man, but try to chill.

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    6. Yes, point well taken.

      You're right, I was carried away And I'm sorry.

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    7. No worries. It just made my point that we can all get pissed off and spout off and we don't mean to be dicks. It happens. I'm no saint, and I don't believe there was a Greek god for hair. :)

      Delete
    8. any one upset--type yuor comment, get it off your chest, but don't send,
      come back an hour later,edit and then send.

      Delete
    9. But, but...instant gratification! :)

      Delete
  4. At the end, you mentioned ammo and guns once again. Nobody in the survival-sphere seems to mention the cheap and hardy .22 Magnum as an option. It will thwart a cross-wind on long-distant shots on the prairie, and give superior "kill" punch to close-ranged varmints.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Here's a guess. Three times the price of a LR. Only half the price of a carbine round reload. 2x the cost of a 9mm reload. I'm not trying to be sarcastic, I'm actually guessing nobody thinks the cost/benefit ration approaches other rounds, even comparing apples to oranges.

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    2. Yep, stay with those massively mass produced calibers for price point and availabity. Have to satisfy both of those requirements to be a contender. It is not a personal preference decision, a practicalty decision.

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    3. Remember when they couldn't give away the Russian revolvers for like $70? The ammo was too weird, unavailable, expensive. I almost went for them, but then I think several hundred rounds should last you forever as it is a last ditch weapon.

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    4. Yeah, the nagant czar's revolver, like the tokerov/cz 7.62x25 semi. Too off the beaten path. I have makarov 9x18 it is a little more common. Like having an olds-pontiac, not made but can kinda get parts versus a studebaker/desoto/amc etc. Got to pick a date for the dance that can run with the rest of the fillies. Fifty years from now maybe even glocks will be relics that gramps only pulls out and shows kids on memorial day holiday.

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    5. I do miss all those surplus guns-useful or not. Just another form of nostalgia I guess.

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    6. Cheap, maybe. Hardy, yes. But only works in specific guns, and not many of them. It's a novelty round.

      Better off sticking with .22 long rifle as it works in anything, even guns that fire magnums. Nothing wrong with stocking magnum ammo if you find a deal and have the gun.

      Forget about shorts too, nothing works with them any more, if you can find em.

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    7. A LR does all you need from a rimfire. Anything else, go centerfire. It is like trying to use a 16g shotgun. Why? 12 and 20 got you covered (the only good thing about the 410 is you could use pistol ammo also ).

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  5. The consuming of mass quantities should probably be done in a couple of categories of importance. I like to focus on items that are a highly manufactured and high demand (guns/ammo as one example) another list would be importation dependant availabilty (small appliances/tools/widgets etc.) Some items that are domestically produced and not a top tier pretty prepper grab it off the shelf demand item can be lower on the list of aquisitions. When dwindling funds and purchasing power occur it is a challenge being a yuppie prepper, let me tell you, whew!

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    Replies
    1. I think the speed that pretty pony equipment disappears will astound the multitudes who depend on them. Of course, that goes for 90% of everyday items as well.

      Delete
  6. Infrastructure continuation...
    I used to think it was super important to have an EMP-proof vehicle for after a grid-down event. Lets say there's a grid-down event in the fall, which is the worst time for it to occur, as it's the longest amount of time before you can plant crops (the spring) and the die-off will be the quickest. With no road department coming along and cleaning culvert plug-ups, tree and rock slides, filling sinkholes and potholes, the roads will be impassable by spring when the population has thinned out. Where could you drive in your 4x4 EMP proof vehicle? A long, slow trip to nowhere, ONCE. It would be a miracle if you didn't get ambushed and you made it back safely home. It would be a great challenge to start your truck once a week to keep it lubed and problem free for a couple years (longer?) before the roads, that weren't maintained and are marginally passable at best, are safe to travel.
    Peace out

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    1. The only good thing about the road system even without pavement will be the graded levels. The dirt is already removed. Not that this will do any good without plant and tree removal, but at least it is an opportunity if resources are there in extra energy.

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    2. Best reasoning for having an EMP proof vehicle. Would be for that initial mad dash to bug out. After that point, I believe a functional vehicle will only be placing a giant bullseye upon yourself.

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    3. Right, even those folks who won't need a vehicle will still WANT one. Like the kid who dashes back in the house ( as the forest fire is yards away ) to get his stuffed bear.

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    4. Peace Out, the big problem here is verification. A number of people tell you this should work, others tell you it shouldn't. If somebody is really knowledgeable about the topic (there are a number of very well explained EMP pages on the internet), it can help you further.

      But you can't make a test for an EMP event on your car. Not to say it's not technically feasible, but to my knoweldge it hasn't be done yet, and furthermore, you can't be sure that the real EMP event would be anything like what has been tested.

      This is why my personal approach to all things technological is being able to do without. Cars are cash burners anyway, so I don't have any, and save myself lots of trouble. I walk to my job and walk to the supermarket. This is one of the reasons why small towns are good places to live.

      If you can't afford to live without technology then it IMHO more prudent to consider that it will fail. If it doesn't , hey good for you, but if it does, then you just follow the plan.

      If an EMP event fries most vehicles, whatever still runs will either be stuck in gridlock or the target of very desperate people. Think of a dad who is anxious to get home to see if his daughter's insulin pump still works. You can imagine he would do ANYTHING to get to her, and you're just some guy on a bike.

      This is why the plan is to walk, like everybody else, and thus not live too far from your workplace.

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    5. The ultimate EMP proof, all terrain, all weather, all-american 4x4 vehicle?

      A big 15 hand female ginger horse for ridin' and another 15 hand ginger male for packin'.

      They can weigh about 1100 pounds and when necessary carry half their weight for short distances.

      Fuel is cheap but you got to know what kind does what. If water is plentiful and you have basic maintenance tools and knowledge they can be your forever vehicles and more for 15-20 years or more.

      I don't have any horses but my neighbors do and I've been learning about them for the past 10 years. May end up getting a couple or 4. Takes at least an acre per for grazing, with supplements.

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    6. Ave-good points on technology. This is why I don't much care for e-books. Everything should work just fine for a long time. Easy peasy to EMP proof a notebook and all add-ons. A thumb drive is $5. Yet, all that info is still dependent on tech. It isn't that e-books aren't mostly bomb proof, it is more just relying on ANY high tech method is suspect.
      GS-horses are great, but they are also huge consumers of water and fertile land. Not a huge deal after the die-off, but they do have their own cost.

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    7. laura ingalls wilder and her dad saw some of these huge beautiful horses but her dad, though of course he wanted some, said that the amount of hay needed to get one through the winter would feed one regular horse plus, so go a bit smaller in horse choice unless you have acres and don't count on a good hay harvest every year--tornado, hail, torrential rain, drought, et cetera.

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    8. And a wild pony will be a better military asset than an oat eating warhorse. Lower complexity.

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    9. One of the specifications for 8x57 Mauser was the ability to penetrate a horse from the front and reach its vital organs.

      Also, a horse is worth mucho dinero and is also worth much dinners.

      Just saying.

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    10. Hey, be fair to the 5.56. If you fired a whole clip at the horse you be bound to have one penetrate far enough to get an organ.

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  7. Jim I'm afraid it's not working like that at all, a hunter can tell you that which much detail. You need a lot of energy to get to the internal organs of a horse from the front.

    It's not for nothing that the Great Follicled James M Dakin once called the 5,56 a "poodle shooter".

    If you throw one million little balsa darts with a blowgun on the horse it's not going to die either. (But if you drop this million darts on him as a single package from high enough, then maybe...)

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    1. I thought I was just being funny. I can't take credit for "poodle shooter". Probably been around as long as I have.

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    2. In Germany at the carnival, they have this weird tradition of blowing horns three times when the funny part of a joke is told. Not subtle (not that we'd excepted that), but at least people realise it's a joke. Perhaps I'm being too German here ;)

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    3. Hmmm. Perhaps I should have little pictures of tubas when I'm denoting a joke :)

      Delete
  8. I’ve been exposed to the equus my entire life (Mother was a horse nut; still is). Pre-collapse I would suggest that they’re basically worthless. Post collapse however, is another story. And here is where ghostsniper is onto something, as the fellow that has a horse set up will be the Henry Ford of the apocalypse (minus the jew hating of course :D).

    Horses are A LOT OF TROUBLE THOUGH! First off you would need enough land for them to graze so that you never have to feed them, which of course, PA, you wouldn’t have the option of store bought food. Also, fencing is critical. I’ll save you the trouble by informing you that unless you have a solid concrete, brick wall, cinder block, fencing (read indestructible by the typical earth mammal) they will destroy it, and you will be replacing it every few years. Yes, this is an expensive upfront cost. But trust me, you will be money ahead in the long run. Metal pole fencing will get bent and pushed over. The wire will get stretched from them pushing against it. And if it’s wood, they will chew it. Horses are like giant rodents, and will destroy everything in their path.

    You will need a stallion and a few mares to keep your horse population going. Most stallions are aggressive, and must be separated from the other horses.

    In short, I hate horses. But don’t listen to me, because I pretty much hate everyone :D

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    1. To help pay the bills during jr and sr high my folks boarded horses. Guess who repaired the fences, drove posts and strung wire, and picked up horse crap. If anything, your case for hating horses is understated.

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    2. Yeah, horses are real assholes Jim, but most people probably don’t see this.

      Though all the power to the person that is able to successfully keep them post collapse. For he will have what will likely be the absolute best barter/sale item that one could have, and will be a powerful figure in the community as a result; assuming that he can protect them from marauders.

      I’m wondering if the Oxen would be a better choice?

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    3. I believe oxen are the diesel powers. Slower than you walking, hauls heavy load. Horses translate over militarily.

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    4. Good point; I hadn’t really thought of that. Though one item of importance that comes to mind; horses need shoeing if they’re to be ridden on any serious level. And the farrier services will be an entirely different art in itself (another cottage industry if you will). Not sure if it would even be practical PA, if metal will be at a premium. Though I suppose that you might be able to recycle the shoes. The problem is that horses often throw a shoe and you are not aware of it until later, so it’s often lost for good.

      Interesting topic that really hasn’t come up much here before.

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    5. Oxen and horses, "survivalist first world" problems ?

      In the middle ages, one horse needed as much land surface as was necessary to feed four humans. They were typically very expensive, and had a lot of manpower attached to them, as Anon 12:06 explained in detail.

      That said, the United States doesn't have the population densities of Europe except in the Megalopolis ( the atlantic Northeast), so it's perhaps more viable there.

      Lots of different regions in the world, each with its own set of possibilities.

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    6. 4:41-I've heard the same with shoes, but how did the Indians deal with it?
      Ave-horses might be a necessity in a lot of places for a viable defense or "defensive offense". Indians with horses usually prevailed over their neighbors without, the invaders of the New World with, etc.

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    7. "4:41-I've heard the same with shoes, but how did the Indians deal with it?"


      You know, that thought popped into my head right after I submitted that last post. The only thing that I can figure is that the wild stock of horses that the Indians typically rode, were of a hardier stock. It’s also possible that they went through a lot of horses in a short period of time. And of course, they would often replace old stock, courtesy of the “white eyes”. I do know that horses need to have their feet trimmed as well, and I don’t see how the natives would handle that bit of maintenance.

      You pose a good question though. One that I can’t provide a good answer for right off.

      But suffice it say that the dude that keeps horses, and is able to handle these various problems as they arise, will be the lord of his township.

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    8. It just might not be a capitalist system. If your tribes circumstances dictate, you'll have a gift economy, or even a communal one. Everyone's skills are more free labor. At the very least, a half generation after your first apprentice and you are just one of many. I'm not sure you're looking at a multi-generational wealth transfer. Hey, you could just end up a slave for the king.

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