bunker in now 2-post 2 of 2 today

BUNKER IN NOW 2
post 2 of 2 today

You do understand I'm not the only crazy one here, right? I had decided to bunker in before February was half over with. February 11^th I believe was my last prepper buy. Since then I was only out twice for the NOL prescriptions and once for produce ( remember, if you substitute cabbage for lettuce, and stick with root veggies, you are barely ever going out for produce ). I still go out five in the morning for my power walk ( Old Humper Exercise ) all week, but that is not mixing with the unwashed masses. Who will really be unwashed soon, as a LOT of toiletries come from China.

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More recently, a lot of YouTubers ( and Patreon people ) have declared they will be doing the same, bunkering in. I know, I WAS crazy then. A little overly paranoid. Which I've always been ( after I went to University Of Life and got my degree ). The other survivalist writers/talkers are far more socially functional than I am and didn't release their balloons as quickly. To be clear, I'm only reducing my chances of Beer Bug, not eliminating them. The NOL still goes to work where it was always normal for the fat ass desk jockey's to be sick ( paid sick days being an incentive ) all winter long, and for the homeless to shed cooties everywhere.

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( Although, if my fathers theory that beer kills germs is correct, the bums should be immune LOL ) I'm not avoiding crowds just because of the mini-pandemic ( again, it is economic, not disease, that will have the biggest impact. I've believed that since the beginning ). Mostly I'm avoiding crowds because I'm just not sure when their behavior turns violent. Not as in Columbine violent, just as in extreme rudeness and inflamed tempers. I don't want to risk escalation.

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Plus, just my luck, Henrietta Housewife keeps hearing about toilet paper shortages, she frantically Grand Theft Auto drives down to the store on delivery day and as she is shrieking into her cell phone, she doesn't see me on my bicycle with blazing yellow safety vest and runs my ass over. I go to the hospital, where I get the super extra deadly Iranian strain of Beer Bug, plus the wrong drugs as the correct one is out of stock, and I die for sure. All because I couldn't keep my impatient paranoid ass inside the compound walls.

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Notice how I didn't go off on a tangent about the weaponized Iranian Bat Bug? Not much point in that anymore, is there? Getting bogged down in the details of the cause is counterproductive by now. It was fun at first, then pointless. It is like two guys huddling in a cave avoiding fallout arguing about who fired the first ICBM. Let us return to general trends. We covered hospitals and banking. On to trucking. Frankly, it is insulting how we arrived at our current trucking situation. Like a lot of our other institutions, we enacted the practice when oil was both cheap as water and like Miami at high tide, everywhere.

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Capitalism follows the lowest price feedstock. Whatever is cheapest to produce for profit, that is what dominates the economy. It used to be slaves and sugar, then slaves and cotton ( later, colonized “free” people and cotton ). In the last fifty years it was finance, as that was based on oil. And doesn't require a factory. At one time it was the automobile. Oil was so cheap, getting RID of it was a problem. So we used it on the most inefficient transportation we could, suburban Happy Motoring.

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This soon included semi truck transportation. After all, the infrastructure was already in place, for passenger cars. Scaling up to semi's was cheaper than fixing the deteriorating rail lines, and a hell of a lot cheaper than building any new ones ( which you really couldn't, as suburbia was in the way ). On that sunny day that the US hit Peak Oil in 1971, our transportation system was doomed. No one wanted to see it. They certainly didn't care when global peak hit in 2005. Hydrogen, ethanol and tight oil will save the day!

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The trucking industry was in trouble last year, massive economic disruptions globally from demand destruction hammering them ( get it? “put the hammer down, rubber ducky!” ). And normally that would not be a huge issue. The rail would pick up the slack as a latter date increased demand built back up truck and trailer inventory. But rail is in trouble from the same demand collapse. And soon both face a far more crippling problem, decreased demand as imports cease for all intents and purposes ( other countries manufacture-but China supplies the materials for that. Do you get why I think China did this deliberately? ), AND spare parts issues.

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If cars were not being assembled weeks and weeks ago, how far from repair part availability failure are we? I know that we had a great year ( 2018? ) right before the trade war as companies raced to stock up ( tax purposes? The details escape me, sorry ). That alone might just slightly pull out the timetable until mass shortages ( and that time might almost or already be over-remember, the bicycle parts shortage was almost immediate ). Every day less shipping containers show up is another blow to the trucking industry. You thought retail closures were bad in past years-just wait.

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I hope you've kept employment in mind. Almost all of our jobs are conditioned on three things. Consumption, borrowing or taxes. The 70% of the economy that was consumption, largely financed by debt. Debt to do almost anything for consumers, but more importantly for our discussion, debt so companies kept their doors open. And, taxes, to fund all the government workers. Sure, we need cops and firefighters, even more so as they are shot in combat or killed by the Bat Bug responding to medical emergencies, but if there are no taxes as consumer or debt jobs disappear, well, want in one hand.

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What happens to the Always Lost Money fracking industry, as the banks fail ( with Derivatives at $1.2 QUADRILLION, and with cash reserves at 1.2%-both figures from guys much smarter at finances than I- there is no way the banks don't fail )? The price of oil will continue to fall, as we experience shortages. The 6 million barrels a day of fracking oil is no longer on the market. There will be shortages despite global oil surpluses. Not that you can buy any cheap gas, if it was available, without a job. And as the banking industry fails, who is financing all that centralized agriculture?

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Sure, let's nationalize it. Obama couldn't build a web page for his Health Tax, the CDC cannot hand out a viable virus test, but the federal government can feed us. Sure. I'd take that to the bank, but its closed. Start thinking of the systems failures.

( .Y. )

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